Here are the latest figures out of Nevada.
We have some good news to report tonight, along with some data points from none other than Jim Messina.
For these reports, I will only be tracking Clark County and Washoe County. Together, they account for just shy of 90% of all registered voters in Nevada.
First let's start with the numbers from Clark County:
Here are the cumulative early voting figures:
Dems 171,352 (48.15%)
Reps 116,994 (32.88%)
Inds 67,491 (18.97%)
Here are the additional early ballots cast since the last daily report:
This has been a nice recovery from two days ago, when Republicans were behind Democrats only 1,618 in the early vote count on Monday. Yesterday, we led Republicans by about 3,000 ballots. And in this daily report, we lead by over 4,000. This is extremely welcome and positive news.
Now, here are the cumulative figures, including mail-in ballots:
Dems 190,001 (47.67%)
Reps 134,394 (33.72%)
Inds 74,151 (18.61%)
As of this report, 46.79% of the 851,803 active voters in Clark County have voted. 2012 turnout among early voters is still running higher than in 2008.
By the way, our registration advantage among active voters in Clark County is roughly 46% to 31% so the cumulative figures are close to those proportions thus far. So far, the numbers look good in Clark County and we are regaining our mojo in early voting. Btw, does anyone know how many early voting days are left in Nevada?
Now, let's take a look at Washoe County.
Here are the cumulative early voting numbers:
Dems 36,271 (41.31%)
Reps 35,441 (40.37%)
Inds 16,082 (18.32%)
Here are the new early votes since the last report:
Strangely, overall turnout is actually down from last week, on our side and on their side.
Here are the cumulative figures, including mail-in ballots:
We cling to a tiny lead in a county where Republicans outnumber Democrats by just 1,200 active voters.
As of now, this constitutes 42.45% of the 241,459 active voters in Washoe County. We are still in a solid position in Nevada thus far.
Here are the statewide numbers including all early and mail-in ballots:
Dems 235,514 (44.18%)
Reps 200,675 (37.65%)
Inds 96,872 (18.71%)
This constitues 42.39% of the 1,257,621 active voters in Nevada. Among active registered voters, Democrats have an advantage of 7.2% over Republicans. As we can see, among all actual early and absentee voters we only hold a 6.53% advantage over Republicans. So on a statewide basis, Republicans have overperformed a bit in the early voting. But the good news is that we will hold a solid lead going into election day.
According to Jim Messina's conference call from earlier today, two thirds of early voters in Nevada are women, young people, African Americans, or Latinos. That is huge. There are some Republicans in Nevada who are voting for Obama. According to the last PPP poll which showed Obama ahead 51% to 47%, Obama bleeds only 8% of his base, but he gets 12% of Republicans. According to the same poll, Obama is behind 53% to 44% among independents. And the same poll shows us with a partisan edge of 42% to 36% in the crosstabs. To me, this all seems very accurate.
Obviously, Republicans are in far better shape than in 2008, when Democrats outnumbered Republicans about 48% to 35% in Washoe and 52% to 30% in Clark in the entirety of the early/mail-in voting period. But they're just outnumbered in Nevada. If we show up, we win. And again, it was a very, very encouraging day as far as the numbers in Clark County go. President Obama is going to win Clark County by ten points or more. And if he does that, Romney doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning Nevada.
And now, I offer my projection of Nevada:
Here is how I think the electorate will look on election day:
Obama The Stench
White (68%) 41% 57%
African American (9%) 93% 5%
Latino/Hispanic (17%) 70% 27%
Asian (3%) 62% 35%
Other (3%) 64% 34%
Which results in: 51.93% 45.87%
Perhaps this all seems way too optimistic. I guess I just feel that all of the polling firms are underestimating Obama's strengh among Latinos. I mean, in 2008, according to the exit poll, Obama got 76% of the Latino vote in Nevada. My projection might even be a bit generous to The Stench here, I'm not sure. I just don't see any possible pathway for The Stench to win Nevada, do you?
And by the way, another takeaway from Jim Messina's conference call was that The Stench's campaign increased its ad buy in North Carolina over the past two days. Why? If they felt they had North Carolina locked up they would NOT be doing this.