Skip to main content

Kid watches President Barack Obama speak at rally in Richmond Virginia on October 25, 2012.
Cheering Obama in Richmond, Virginia, last Thursday.
Yesterday we looked at the results of President Barack Obama's crazy good polling day, and compared his current numbers to those of his post-first debate nadir. Today, I want to compare his gains for the last week alone—essentially whatever bump he got from his last debate. So here goes. As always, these are the TPM poll composites, with all pollsters included, even the crappy GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of wingnut outfits Gravis and We Ask America. But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's in our direction and at the right time. Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall. He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House—and it's all thanks to his enduring personal unpopularity. Being a dick is a limiting factor in presidential politics.

Finally, Republican bluster about "expanding the map" looks increasingly hollow as Romney spent the entire day yesterday in Florida (the second time in four days), and is spending the entire day today in Virginia. If he doesn't even have those two states locked down, where exactly is he supposedly expanding the map?

In fact, looking at the campaign schedule in the days ahead, current plans for Romney are:

11/2: Etna and West Chester, OH
11/3: Newington, NH; Colorado Springs and Englewood, CO
11/4: n/a
11/5: Manchester, NH (with Kid Rock!)

I'll write another post about Romney's weird New Hampshire obsession, but aside from that, unless they shake things up or throw a PA-MI-MN swing on the fourth, the notion that this race is being decided anywhere outside the above nine battlegrounds is ludicrous.

Obama isn't just winning, the trendlines are moving in his direction. Rather than tighten the final week, the opposite is happening.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 10:42 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

RedDan, GainesT1958, JekyllnHyde, Chilipalmer, vlajos, teacherken, misscee, abarefootboy, greenbird, Shockwave, billlaurelMD, oysterface, eeff, SallyCat, exNYinTX, VickiStein, Creosote, coffee cup, CocoaLove, Redfire, IM, PresentMoment, SneakySnu, menodoc, ninothemindboggler, Nag, hangingchad, JCPOK, wdrath, QuoVadis, Steven Payne, Brian82, JohnB47, stagemom, PSzymeczek, jane123, zinger99, gwilson, vigilant meerkat, edwardssl, Im with Rosey, wild hair, Texdude50, blueoregon, Statusquomustgo, cpresley, bear83, pinkhighway, Cronesense, Msinformed, Mary Mike, sfbob, joedemocrat, bearian, jnhobbs, pioneer111, Assaf, roycej, TomP, chicago minx, mconvente, TruthFreedomKindness, rontun, Cordwainer, OleHippieChick, Involuntary Exile, bythesea, lovingj, pamelabrown, catly, True Independent, get the red out, grsplane, ewmorr, bobatkinson, Carol in San Antonio, shopkeeper, followyourbliss, marzook, MySobriquet, johnosahon, Denise Oliver Velez, louisev, collardgreens, Nalepoc, Clyde the Cat, Railfan, bronxcharlie, brooklyns finest, OrangeMike, estreya, brunoboy, Tea and Strumpets, legalchic, gulfgal98, fiercefilms, annieli, Mr MadAsHell, BlueJessamine, futilitismo, mrsgoo, PorridgeGun, Hohenzollern, thomask, BarackStarObama, Vatexia, DEMonrat ankle biter, ParkRanger, hulibow, ridemybike, Prairie D, tweeternik, Liberal Granny, angry marmot, a2nite, Farkletoo, deanarms, Buckeye54, Denver11, George3, Graypets, Steve Canella, DamselleFly, mindara, hcfmully, lina, eric611, IndyinDelaware, rigcath, Ishmaelbychoice, 51percent

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site