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Crowd at campaign rally with Joe Biden and Jill Biden in Lynchburg VA—October 27th
Cheering Joe and Jill Biden in Lynchburg, Virginia, last Saturday.
At this late in the game, not only are there big gaps in the campaign schedule for both campaigns, but locations are subject to change. Still, we can glean some info from current plans:
  • First of all, the Romney-Ryan ticket is currently scheduled to spend time in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire. There's no "expanding of the map" going on here. Of course, the GOP ticket has no events yet scheduled for the fourth, and nothing for Paul Ryan after tomorrow. But as of now, there's no real effort to push beyond the real battlegrounds.
  • President Barack Obama will be in Ohio every day for the next three days. His lead is increasing in the state, and Romney can't win without it. So it makes sense to keep himself in the local news. Fun fact: Campaign appearances move numbers. Campaign ads don't do much of anything anymore except stimulate the bottom line of TV and radio stations.
  • As of now, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina are no longer destinations. All three have seen heavy early voting, so the utility of a personal appearance may be reduced. Also, Nevada and Iowa have moved pretty solidly behind Obama, while North Carolina has remained lean-Romney. And even if strong Democratic early voting in the Tarheel State presents a genuine threat to Romney's chances in the state, there's not much he can do about it at this point. If he loses North Carolina, he will have lost everything else by a shit-ton. Meanwhile, Obama can (and will) hit over 300 electoral votes either with or without the state.
  • What the hell is Romney doing spending so much time in New Hampshire? I'm having a hard time finding a map that makes the Granite State electorally relevant. The closest I've come is a map in which Romney wins the 2008 Obama states of Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, which would give us a 269-269 tie. But the House would then give the election to Romney, so Romney would gain nothing by taking New Hampshire.

    If there was a serious play for Nebraska's single electoral vote, then New Hampshire would be relevant, but Obama isn't contesting it, and no polling shows it competitive. Other than that, I can't see a map where New Hampshire matters (though correct me in the comments if I'm wrong).

    So why is Romney visiting the state at least two of the remaining days, including his Election Eve bash? And for that matter, why is Obama hitting it Nov. 4? With his crazy schedule that day (New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Colorado), Obama could either rest a little bit extra, or hit another more relevant stop. Like Wisconsin.

  • With time running out, and options short, why are Romney and Ryan still doing joint appearances? Does Romney still need Ryan to generate excitement at his rallies? Maybe it has something to do with this?
    Romney was routinely drawing 10,000+, but this week: Roanoke 2,800; Jacksonville 4,200; Coral Gables 3,500; Tampa 2,000.
    @PhilipRucker via TweetDeck


  • It's not just the polling. This Romney schedule (Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire) is that of a losing campaign, fighting for states in which he trails significantly, bypassing other states in which he also trails significantly, and unable to shore up any of his weakest prospects (essentially, Florida and North Carolina).

    12:07 PM PT: Okay, in the comments people pointed out the map where New Hampshire is relevant:

    CO, FL, NC, VA, WI and NH gets Romney to 271 EVs.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 11:37 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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