Positives and Negatives I see from the campaign and my realistic and slightly cautious prediction below:
Would love others to share thoughts.
Positives
1) Ground game and early vote - although not as good as 2008 we seem to be still ahead
2) Economy getting better albeit slowly
3) Obama's handling of Sandy -reminds people of how bad Bush's was of Katrina. Don't know if it will help but its possible it gives a 0.1% boost in a swing state - which could matter in the end
4) Ohio polls - we seem to be ahead by 2 on avg
5) Romney has been out of the news for a few days while Obama has looked Presidential
6) Coverage of Bill Jeff (as George Carlin says RIP) relentlessly campaigning
7) Nate Silver
Negatives
1) Trailing with indys - although that has narrowed slightly in some recent polls
2) Need solid turnout in Ohio - not as good as D + 8 in 2008 but need better than 2004 and 2010. D + 5 should do it.
3) Republican enthusiasm is higher than in 08
4) Enthusiasm of key demographics such as younger people is lower than 08
My prediction:
It will not be glorious but I bet we will prevail.
I think the electorate will be somewhere between 04 and 08. That means about 38% Democrat 34-35% Republican and the rest Indys
I think Obama and Romney will each earn support from their respective bases and about the same amont of crossover votes. This is what I see from polls. And unfortunately I think Romney will win indys by roughly 5%, reflecting some Tea Party voters preference to remain independent by also Obama's recent narrowing in some polls of the wider gap after the first debate
This means: Obama will receive between 49.5-50% of the vote and Romney between 48.5%-49.
Obama wins 6 battleground states: Ohio Wisconsin Iowa Nevada Michigan and Pennsylvania
Romney wins 5 battleground states North Carolina Florida Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire
Obama wins electoral college 277-261
His second term will be far more productive than his first as he continues to wind down the wars, puts together a responsible debt deal, and continues to implement healthcare changes.