I've been looking at the forecast graphs at Fivethirtyeight the last couple of days. There's a point where Obama's probability of winning and of taking the electoral college makes a sharp turn from falling to rising. It isn't a gradual shift, it's a sharp turnaround, an inflection point. It looks like the low point on both the electoral college and chance of winning graphs was October 12. It started rising on October 13.
I started poking around to see what could have happened to cause a major shift in direction. It didn't line up with any of the Presidential debates. So what was it?
I think I've got it figured. Follow me past the cheese doodle...
The inflection point doesn't line up with any of the presidential debates. I couldn't find any major gaffes by Romney around that date. I kept looking, and then I saw an article that mentioned the Vice-Presidential debate.
That debate took place on the evening of October 11....
I remember sitting here with AnnieJo watching the debate, and I can't count the number of times I jumped up off the couch and pumped my fists in the air. I had been feeling pretty down after the first Presidential debate, with each new poll that showed Obama in free-fall upping my angst. But oh, I was PUMPED watching Joe Biden take it to Paul Ryan. It felt good to be a Democrat again. I began to think that maybe, just maybe, we could pull this thing out.
Apparently, I wasn't the only one.
So Joe, here's to you buddy. I hope your boss shows you some love for helping to save his butt.
And with that, I have just published my first diary!