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Leading Off:

MO-Sen: Following on the heels of news that Now or Never PAC would parachute in with $800K on GOP Rep. Todd Akin's behalf at the 11th hour, the Missouri GOP is following suit with $700K of their own. Of course, you have to wonder where the state party got such money—few such outfits are that well-funded, and even if the MO Republicans were, no one's really keeping that much cash around with so little time before the election. The only real possibility, therefore, is that the money came from the NRSC (they're refusing to comment)—and of course their chair, John Cornyn, rather famously said he was cutting Akin loose after his legitimate rape implosion, and really seemed to stick to his guns.

So what's happening here? Are Republicans actually seeing a chance for themselves? Or are they just conning themselves into imagining that the natural tightening you'd expect here is real movement back toward Akin? Is there no other candidate they could better spend the money on? Well, I've asked my four questions, but it may not matter. Akin's out with a new ad that—stunningly—features a woman who says she was a rape victim and has had an abortion but is support Akin because he "defends the unborn." (It's not clear if the two were linked. And of course, Akin doesn't even think such a linkage is possible.) It's absolutely amazing that Akin would want to call attention to the very topic which sunk his own candidacy.

Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill's also lowering the boom with one final new spot, featuring footage of Mitt Romney calling on Akin to drop out of the race and John McCain saying "he would not be welcome by Republicans in the United States Senate." You know she was just holding this anvil in reserve. Let's hope it's enough to keep the lid of Todd Akin's political coffin tightly shut.


NE-Sen: Not a bad get for Democrat Bob Kerrey: Republican ex-Sen. Chuck Hagel just endorsed him in the campaign's waning days. Of course the GOP is poor-mouthing Hagel, an apostate who left office in 2008 and has committed the sin of saying kind things about Obama—but I'd also point out that if Hagel's support truly meant nothing, then why would Republicans make such a big deal out of trying to convince reporters it means nothing?

Meanwhile, the last-minute ad spending has really heated up in Nebraska. The pro-Dem VoteVets is racing on to the airwaves, putting as much as $700K behind this ad which, like Kerrey's, attacks Republican Deb Fischer over a failed lawsuit she initiated against "elderly neighbors to take their land." And it turns out that American Crossroads' anti-Kerrey buy is much bigger than previously reported: $725K, not the $420K we'd seen mentioned before.

OH-Sen: I just want to point out that negative third-party ad spending against Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown has now topped an absolutely insane $31 million—the most any Senate candidate has faced—and Republican Josh Mandel is still on track to lose. I just seriously hope that conservatives feel burned by how much money they've wasted on this race. Also, former Sen. (and national hero) John Glenn has recorded a very nice positive spot for Brown. It's quite the change from all the attack ads we've seen, and I think you'll like it.

VA-Sen: Republican George Allen just lent his campaign $500K in its final days, which is hard to read as a positive sign for his chances. The reality is, aside from weirdo conservative pollsters like Gravis or We Ask America, and the always-wrong Roanoke College (they started the race with Allen up 13 points!), you have to go back to mid-July to find Allen leading in any poll.

WI-Sen: Oh, Tommy:

So I left. I left the government after four years, after George Bush got elected the second time. And my wife likes to shop. Okay? And she said, "You know, Tommy, you have been in politics for 38 years. Why don't you go out and see if you can make some decent money so I can go shopping without having to put everything on a credit card."
HI-Sen (Merriman): Mazie Hirono (D): 55 (55), Linda Lingle (R): 40 (39).

MI-Sen (EPIC-MRA): Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 54 (55), Pete Hoekstra (R): 33 (35).

WI-Sen (Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D): 48 (49), Tommy Thompson (R): 47 (45); Obama 49-46 (51-45).


NH-Gov (Marist): Maggie Hassan (D): 49 (47), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (45); Obama 49-47 (51-44). Odd that Hassan's lead would increase since last month while Obama's would decrease.

WA-Gov: There's definitely been some tightening in the race for Washington's governor in the last month; there was a brief period (which seemed to coincide with Barack Obama's post-convention polling bulge) where Democrat Jay Inslee was putting up mid-single-digit leads, and now that's down to low-single-digit leads (or in the case of last week's Elway Research poll, a small edge for GOPer Rob McKenna). Two new polls confirm that idea: SurveyUSA, on behalf of KING-TV, find Inslee leading McKenna 47-46, down from a 3-pt. lead two weeks ago and a 5-pt. lead a month ago.

The University of Washington, on behalf of KCTS, finds the exact same numbers (PDF) if you stick with registered voters: Inslee leading McKenna 47-46. However, if you switch to LVs, Inslee actually does better: 49-46. Indeed, Washington was one of the few states in 2010 polling where we saw the enthusiasm gap working to the Dems' benefit, and that may apply again here. (The LV margin in the school's previous poll a month ago was 47-46 for Inslee.)

Even when Inslee was trailing McKenna by significant margins prior to this summer, we expected that this was going to be a down-to-the-wire race in November, given the tension between the state's Democratic lean and McKenna's ability to overperform a generic Republican. Factor in a lot of RGA spending in the closing weeks, and it makes sense that this race is reverting to the mean; with that, we're moving it back to Tossup—albeit with the faintest Inslee tilt—after a brief stay at Lean Dem.

Other results from SUSA's poll include a 54-40 lead for Barack Obama in the presidential race (unchanged from two weeks ago). There is also solid support for the state's two big ballot measures: same-sex-marriage is passing 52-43 (down from 54-41 last time), while marijuana legalization is passing 56-37. UW's miscellaneous numbers include a 56-36 lead for Barack Obama, a crushing 61-33 lead for Maria Cantwell in the Senate race, a 45-34 advantage for Dem Bob Ferguson in the open Attorney General's race, same-sex-marriage passing 58-37, and marijuana legalization passing 55-38. (David Jarman)


CA-35: You really have to wonder why Mike Bloomberg waited until so incredibly late in the game for his PAC to start spending so freely—he certainly could have had a bigger impact had he not waited until the absolute last second. But in any event, here's the latest of his big buys: He's pouring an enormous $2.4 million on to the airwaves against Rep. Joe Baca, who faces fellow Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod (a state senator) on November 6. That's on top of some $265K in mailers that Independence USA had already paid for. As is usually the case with Bloombo, he's unhappy with Baca's stance on guns, but again, it's not clear why Baca merits any more special attention than any number of pro-gun congressmen.

CA-52 (SurveyUSA): Scott Peters (D): 46, Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 46; Romney 48-45. This is the first poll since Peters and Bilbray each put out internals claiming to be up 4 or 5 each around a week or so ago, though Bilbray notably refused to even provide the name of his pollster. A newspaper poll from the same time had the incumbent up 9, but seeing as Bilbray released internal polling showing a more modest lead, that makes the independent poll fairly hard to believe.

In any event, SUSA evidently believes the truth lies right smack in the middle, but I actually think these numbers are optimistic for Peters. Romney's up 3 in a district Obama won by 12. So either that 15-point turnaround represents a huge drop for the POTUS in the San Diego region (in which case Peters is still hanging on), or this sample is too red (meaning Peters is actually doing better than SUSA thinks).

MI-11: I love Politico's headline for their new story about Republican nominee Kerry Bentivolio: "Bro: House candidate Bentivolio 'mentally unbalanced'". Totally, bro! Says Bentivolio's brother Philip:

"I've never met anyone in my life who is conniving and dishonest as this guy," Phillip Bentivolio said, according to the Michigan Information and Research Service (subscription required). "He's my brother so it's hard to talk about this, but I believe that if he gets elected, he'll eventually serve time in prison."
But it sounds like there's a real beef here: Philip Bentivolio says his brother still owes him $20,000 from twenty years ago (!) and says he told Kerry that he would go to the media if he didn't get paid. I guess this is him making good on his threat, because Kerry responded by saying that Philip has "serious mental issues." Of course, Kerry's the one who once testified in court that he has a "problem figuring out which one I really am, Santa Claus or Kerry Bentivolio," so maybe he's not best-equipped to opine on others' mental health.

MN-02: This is unexpected: House Majority PAC is going into Minnesota's 2nd with a small $65K buy on behalf of Democrat Mike Obermueller, who is waging a longshot campaign against veteran GOP Rep. John Kline. (The minute-long spot, on stem cell research, is one that HMP has used elsewhere.) It's not clear why HMP is making this move: It's so little, so late, and they didn't even send out a press release about it (which is their usual m.o.). A head-fake? Or a possible late collapse in Kline's numbers? It's hard to say, but the former seems more likely than the latter.

NY-11 (Siena): Mark Murphy (D): 34 (38), Mike Grimm (R-inc): 52 (48); Romney 49-46 (Obama 49-45). Yet another Siena poll to find Democratic fortunes heading south. Unlike NY-21, though, this race hasn't really been in play for Team Blue for quite some time, if it ever was.

NY-21: Remarkably, there are three new polls out of New York's 21st District in a single day—one Dem internal, one GOP internal, and one independent survey. And while Rep. Bill Owens leads in all three, the trendlines are not generally positive:

Siena (PDF): Bill Owens (D-inc): 44 (49), Matt Doheny (R): 43 (36); Romney 49-45 (Obama 50-45).

GSG (for Owens): Bill Owens (D-inc): 47 (50), Matt Doheny (R): 40 (36); Obama 49-43 (51-39).

POS (for Doheny): Bill Owens (D-inc): 42 (44), Matt Doheny (R): 40 (43).

A few notes here. First, Doheny's poll, bizarrely, is not of likely voters but of "most likely" voters, a strange metric to use. And if that trendline from POS looks unfamiliar, it's because in his prior survey, Doheny actually trailed 45-40 among plain old likely voters. He didn't provide LVs this time around, which means his spread among them is worse. And since no one uses "MLVs," you have to really wonder if that faux term of art even means anything.

But that aside, both Owens' internal and the independent poll are not pretty. After holding a healthy 13-point lead (and sitting just shy of 50 percent) in Siena's survey, Owens has slipped quite a bit and now is ahead by just one. Siena's presidential shift is pretty dramatic, but the drop they see for Obama (nine points) is not too far off what Global Strategy Group found (six points). Owens' poll has his lead getting halved, from 14 to seven, which is less dramatic than his dozen-point fall in Siena, but the motion is downward in both cases.

As I noted, though, Owens still leads, and Doheny's "most likely voter" shenanigans betray a certain lack of confidence. But this one seems set to remain a tossup until the very end.

NY-25 (Siena): Louise Slaughter (D-inc): 52 (49), Maggie Brooks (R): 42 (44); Obama 53-40 (52-39). In their third poll released on Thursday, Siena finally had some good news for Democrats, as Louise Slaughter has moved back out to the same 52-42 lead she carried at the end of September. And since the presidential toplines have remained flat, you know it's not simply a matter of a more favorable sample. I would guess that it's just the district's natural demographics coming back home, which makes attack ads against the minority party (in this case, the GOP) more effective than those against the dominant party.

TN-04: Whether GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais does or doesn't survive on Tuesday, Roll Call's Joshua Miller says a whole host of local Republicans are already eager to run in Tennessee's 4th District next cycle. The list of possible names includes state Sen. Jim Tracy, state Reps. Kevin Brooks and Joe Carr, former Bradley County Sheriff Tim Gobble, businessman Shane Reeves, and state Speaker Pro Tem Judd Matheny. One name that surprisingly isn't mentioned in Miller's piece: state Sen. Bill Ketron, a powerful legislator who seemingly hand-crafted the redrawn 4th to suit his tastes, then stunningly chose not to run against the freshman DesJarlais in this year's primary. You have to wonder whether he's second-guessing that decision right about now.

Other Races:

MT-St. Sen: One state legislative body that's potentially up for grabs but isn't getting a lot of play this year is Montana's state Senate, where the GOP picked up the chamber in 2010 and currently hold it with a 28-22 edge. The Billings Gazette has a helpful preview of the state's five biggest Senate race, 3 of which are GOP-held and 2 of which are Dem-held (one of which is MT-AL candidate Kim Gillan's seat in Billings).

More broadly, Louis Jacobsen at Governing, the lone pundit who's been out there handicapping the legislative chambers, is out with his final round of ratings of state legislatures. He sees a likely wash: There are six chambers that are leaning toward flipping toward the out party: the GOP-held Colorado House and Maine House (along with the tied Oregon House, which is leaning Dem), and the Dem-held Wisconsin Senate and both chambers in Arkansas. Chambers listed as Tossups include the Dem-held Iowa Senate, Nevada Senate, and Washington Senate, the GOP-held New York Senate and both Minnesota chambers, and the coalition-controlled Alaska Senate. I think he's leaving out some of the larger chambers that are subject to rapid churn, like the New Hampshire House and Pennsylvania House—and Washington's Senate is definitely not a Tossup—but mostly these feel about right. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

NRCC: Politico says they've gotten a hold of an internal NRCC document detailing which GOP incumbents are most desperate for funds in the last days of the campaign. Here's the full list:

Dan Lungren (CA-07), Brian Bilbray (CA-52), Judy Biggert (IL-11), Dan Benishek (MI-01), Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Frank Guinta (NH-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), Chris Gibson (NY-19), Jim Renacci (OH-16), and Quico Canseco (TX-23).
The most interesting inclusion is Gibson. Every other race is in our Tossup pile, but NY-19 still remains at Lean R. The polling hasn't quite been there for us to shift the race one column to the left yet, but it's hovering somewhere in that gray area between "Lean" and "Tossup." It seems like a real surprise from Democrat Julian Schreibman may yet be possible.

Polltopia: Paul Krugman is someone whom I read a lot but probably have never had occasion to link before in the Digest. However, I think his meta-take on political analysis is spot on, and describes our ethos quite well:

Brad [DeLong] has fun with Jonathan Martin of Politico, who thinks that liberals will be deeply disheartened to learn that Nate Silver "admits" that he's mainly relying on public polls for his forecast. Of course, Nate has been clear about that all along—and what should he be doing? And look: the message from the polls is very clear: national surveys show a tight race or a slight Romney lead, but state polls—which are telling us about the electoral vote—show a clear if narrow Obama advantage in enough states to win the electoral college. Those polls would have to be off, systematically, by about 2 percent for Romney to win. So the odds are in Obama's favor.

Oh, and don't quote some poll or other that seems to say different. Polls have a margin of error (duh). This means that if there are a lot of polls, say of Ohio, sheer luck of the draw will produce a couple of polls seeming to tell a different story. That's why all the serious analysts rely on poll averages, and stick to those averages rather than picking and choosing.

But Martin's tweet also reveals a broader issue in reporting, which I've commented on before, I think (no time to search): the unhealthy cult of the inside scoop.

A lot of political journalism, and even reporting on policy issues, is dominated by the search for the "secret sauce", as Martin puts it: the insider who knows What's Really Going On. Background interviews with top officials are regarded as gold, and the desire to get those interviews often induces reporters to spin on demand.

But such inside scoops are rarely—I won't say never, but rarely—worth a thing. My experience has been that careful analysis of publicly available information almost always trumps the insider approach.

More at the link. It's not a long post, and the whole thing is worth a read.

Predictions: If turnout and support is as high among minorities as polls indicate, and if President Obama gets at least as much support from white voters as Democratic House candidates did in the horrid 2010 midterm elections, Daily Kos Elections' dreaminonempty concludes that Romney cannot win the popular vote. But you may disagree with these premises—so peruse the data on voter registration, demographic trends, and recent polling, and then build your own electorate and predict what you think the presidential popular vote margin will be.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  MI: Dem absentees "outperforming" 2008 (9+ / 0-)

    Michigan doesn't have standard early voting, but it appears that Dems are outperforming in absentees.  Numbers are in the article for different measures:

    An absentee ballot chase is under way as the opposing presidential campaigns track thousands of ballots turned in daily to gauge support for their candidates.

    More than 1.2 million absentee ballots had been requested statewide as of Thursday, with nearly 822,000 returned.

    Oakland and Macomb counties and Detroit all reported an uptick last week from four years ago. Absentee, military and overseas ballots comprise about a quarter of the votes counted on Election Day.

    Pollster Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Lansing's Target-Insyght, said the daily absentee ballot figures in Michigan show "Democrats are outperforming than four years ago."

    Michigan GOP spokesman Matt Frendewey acknowledged Democrats have had the edge, but Republicans have launched an unprecedented outreach effort.

    Better yet, they are up in Detroit proper from 2008:
    Detroit has issued nearly 64,500 absentee ballots, up by 4,000 from 2008. Daniel Baxter, the Detroit elections director, dismissed any notion voter enthusiasm is down from the historic 2008 election. Numbers so far indicate turnout will be even higher, he said.
    So, it doesn't sound like a huge advantage or anything, but at the very least it seems enthusiasm is AT LEAST as high as it was in 2008 in Michigan and Detroit, and this will almost certainly indicate a higher turnout on election day, and in favor of the Dems.
    •  i would love it if the ABs are doing GOTV (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Sylv, Involuntary Exile

      wouldn't it be fantastic if the increase is the number of people who won't be near their polling place because they're out doing GOTV or Election Protection?

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:39:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Absentees in Michigan (3+ / 0-)

        Are, I'd imagine, largely seniors who can't physically make it to the polling places, or at least it'd be difficult for them.  I doubt the majority of Michigan absentees are the GOTV-type, but I guess any the abled-bodied ones would help.

        At the moment, we don't need GOTV for the president's election, but we could probably use them in a few close congressional districts.

        •  i get what you're saying- i know how ABs go (0+ / 0-)

          i do a lot of volunteer work for  a few candidates in ct-04 and ct-05. i know the vast majority of ABs we mail voters applications for are for seniors and the physically challenged.

          you know what though? some voters tell me "want to know where my son/daughter/wife or husband is? they already voted absentee ballot and they're in ohio." i think a not insignificant number of us are taking time off from work, school, or retirement to go into swing states.

          you people who phone bank know most calls don't go like this- these conversations are w/ the "i can't wait to vote!" voters- not the "please don't call here again" voters.

          in 2004 my closest swing state was pennsylvania so i went there to volunteer for election protection.

          i'm staying here because we have to crush linda mcmahon and teach her a lesson.

          i know it's mostly fantasy on my part that the bump is from volunteers, but i can dream, can't i?

          "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

          by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:09:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Everyone better be (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, kman23, askew, NMLib, MetroGnome

      filling out the non-partisan section of the ballot!

      •  Wow... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Bradley Whitford looks like he's gained a little bit of weight (and Richard Schiff definitely looks like he's gained some gray hair).

        Kinda awesome seeing the West Wing crew for this one (helps when you have a sister who worked on the show) but it does make me really miss John Spencer.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:52:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  (IN-Sen) Donnelly up 11 on Mourdock (18+ / 0-)
    Democratic Senate nominee U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly has built a significant lead in the race for Senate, according to a new Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll.

    The poll, released this morning, shows Donnelly leading Republican State Treasurer Richard Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Andrew Horning getting 6 percent.
    •  with the 3rd candidate getting 6%, 47% is the new (5+ / 0-)

      50%.  I suspect that the Libertarian Party candidate's 6% polling vote will hold up on election day as it may reflect the votes of Republicans who cannot vote for extremist Mourdock and who also do not want to vote for a Democrat.  They can vote for the Libertarian candidate with a clear conscience.  But that 3rd party candidate's 6% means that to win, a candidate needs 47%, not 50%.  Democrat Donnelly in this poll is at 47% - so even if Mourdock gets all of the 11% undecided votes he would still lose.  This poll is excellent news for Donnelly.  I sent him $$ previously and will be watching this race on Tuesday.  Indiana is one of the earliest states to close its polls as I recall.  

      •  I don't know if it will stay a 6% (5+ / 0-)

        But it will be at least 3-4%  Further, Andy Horning is a pretty well known figure for a 3rd party candidate.  He's been running for governor and congress and senate on the Libertarian line for well over a decade, and even ran for Congress in Indianapolis as a Republican once a few elections ago.

        •  And wouldn't it be something if Kerrey joined (6+ / 0-)

          Donnelly in the senate. Both effective Blue Dogs, but a vast improvemtnt on the two GOPers, and votes for an effective Democratic majority (perhaps even after the 2014 election).

          "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

          by TofG on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:42:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This is not directed at you, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, TheKF1

            but it's easy to forget that if these guys simply vote with us 10 percent of the time and at least consider voting with us other times, it'll be an improvement over what we have now.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:42:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Kerrey was fairly liberal (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            orson, kleinburger, TheKF1

            In his first Senate stint in the Senate Kerrey's record was far from centrist.  He voted fairly liberal and was well left of Ben Nelson's record.  I suspect he'd move more to the center if elected again, but would probably still be an upgrade from Nelson.

        •  I think it's pretty clear at this point (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, The Caped Composer

          that some Republicans who can't bring themselves to support Donnelly are going to vote for Horning (which will probably have about the same effect on the outcome of the race as if they just voted Donnelly).

          The next United States Senator from Indiana is going to be one Joseph Simon Donnelly Sr., Democrat of Granger.  I still can't believe it.  Thanks again, Tea Party!

          •  Well, we still got a little work left to do (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not ready to spike the ball and start dancing in the endzone quite yet -- but yes, I think he is going to win, and thanks again Tea Party indeed!

          •  If you think "The Five" (0+ / 0-)

            on Fox News is bad, then imagine a show hosted by a panel of Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck, and Sharrrrrrrrrron Angle.

            And yet (assuming Mourdock and Akin lose, which I'm not totally sure of) they could be their own "The Five" panel: Republicans who threw away winnable Senate seats due to loony positions and/or unforced campaign errors.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:42:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Donnelly still has presidential coattails (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, itskevin

      To deal with here but I'm moving it to Tilts D. Yeah, I know, uber-cautious as ever.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:15:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think this one is Lean Dem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen

      Some Lugar supporters have clearly opted to jumped into Donnelly's column. Mourdock's comment gave them reason to do so.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:27:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

      That is impressive

  •  171,000 jobs added in October 7.9% rate (10+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:31:46 AM PDT

  •  Non farm payrolls 171,000 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, Sylv, James Allen, askew

    Unemployment ticks up to 7.9%. Pretty good - beats the forecasts.

  •  Breaking news: 7.9% plus 171,000 jobs! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, wishingwell, itskevin, Sylv, askew
  •  YouGuv on how undecideds will break (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, wishingwell, majcmb1, Sylv, askew

    I don't know if this got any attention this week, but two political scientists at YouGuv attempted to quantify how much undecided voters are breaking to each candidate.

    One of them, John Sides, predicted the undecideds will break 55-45 for Obama while the other, Lynn Vavreck, predicted a larger break for Obama.

    Apparently, a similar analysis done for the past two Presidential elections by Pew Research has been fairly accurate, and Pew itself will be out before Election Day with its own analysis of the breaking undecideds.

    My only concern is that YouGuv and Pew use two different methodologies (YouGuv being Internet and Pew being traditional live interviewer phone calls) and that may change the Obama-friendly analysis of YouGuv into something more Romney-friendly by Pew.

    We'll have to wait and see.  

    •  This is in line with other analyses I've seen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, itskevin

      which suggest that undecideds aren't going to decide anything. At this point I think it comes down mainly to GOTV, and I remain confident that the Obama campaign will have at least some edge here.

      With the employment report this morning  benign I think we're pretty much out of news that could move opinion significantly in Romney's direction. All he really has to cling to now is the hope that the battleground state polls are significantly wrong - by a magnitude of at least 2 points on average. While not impossible - especially given the discrepancy with the much closer national polls - this is a long shot. Final state poll averages have been excellent predictors in recent elections, and where there's anything above about a 1.5% final average it would be a major shock if the polls call a state "wrong". Obama is up by more than that in NV, OH and WI, enough for re-election, Romney only in NC.

  •  Marriage Equality Initiatives (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    So we have 4 major battles here... anyone seen polls or have reports from the front lines?

    Maryland - Question 6 -- We already passed the law... Governor is wholeheartedly on-board.. and of course the troglodytes scraped up enough signatures from the primordial masses to put their fellow citizen's rights up for popular vote.  Fuck 'em... we'll pass it anyway.

    Washington - Referendum 74 -- Same as Maryland... Same response from same troglodytes.

    Maine -- Question 1 More pro-active version of the aforementioned "fuck 'em"approach.  Maine rams through some ass-hat legislative ban in 2009.  We will overturn it at the ballot box in 2012.  For every bigoted close-minded action there is an equal and opposite progressive We're-tired-of-your-ugly-fucking-hate reaction.  

    Minnesota -- Amendment 1  Another attempt to hard-code intolerance into a States founding document... in the Land of Franken, Wellstone and Klobochar no less!  The nerve of these people!  Anyway the advantage here is that every ballot that has no vote on this issue counts as a NO vote due to state laws about Constitution amendments.  So we should be able to shut this shit down easily.

    Those are the battle lines ladies and gentlemen... and just for a lil morning schadenfreude, here is how Redstate frames it:  

    Conservatives must realize what we are up against.  There is a strong and vocal minority of people in this country that are in a race to the bottom to radically alter the fabric of our nation to reflect that of the most decedent society conceivable.  If we don’t combat them now, all the other issues will be irrelevant.  There is no way we can have a society that is demanding anything and everything that is sordid, yet one that is austere and conservative regarding dependency, welfare, and entitlements.  Fiscal conservatism and family values are indissoluble.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:45:33 AM PDT

    •  to clarify (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the legislature actually unbanned gay marriage in 2009. it was the people of Maine who changed that. hopefully they've come to their senses this year.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:52:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh yes, you are right. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I have this innate mental block of accrediting the people of Maine with anything bad... this is known as the "I know Bill in Portland Maine on Dkos"effect, or more commonly as "Cheersandjeersitis".  Currently incurable.

        But alas... that is what happened.  

        Happily, we are poised to correct that momentary lapse of judgement by the Pine Tree Staters.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:02:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

      As a Minnesota, and a DFLer, I cringed when you called it the land of "Franken Wellstone and Klobuchar'. Franken doesn't belong in that group at all. IF there were a "Mount Rushmore" of the DFL it'd be "The Land of Humphrey, MrCarthy, Mondale, and Welstone." Klobuchar has a chance to be in that sentence, but she hasn't earned that yet. And Franken is not even in the same world.

      •  Franken supported that Internet bill in its (0+ / 0-)

        original form.  Lost some progressive cred there.  Agreed he doesn't belong in the group.  

      •  Yes you've made this point before (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, James Allen, askew

        though I'm sure Mt Rushmore of DFL would spell the names right.  It's not a sin when people mention their names together, and the Mt Rushmore thing is a bit silly.

        Did Al Franken run over your dog at some point?

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:34:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Haha. I didn't proof read (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          And no, I have nothing against Franken. Let's look at the accomplishments of some of these people. Humphrey created the Party, served a long time in the senate, changed the culture of the state fundamentally such that the DFL would dominate the state for the better part of the next 70 years. He then served as Vice President of the United States. Franken on the other hand, has one razor thin victory against a crooked opponent, and can draw the 50 states free hand. It's not that Franken has done anything wrong since entering the senate, but he is not in the same world as people like Humphrey.

          •  The initial post (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            was listing prominet Senators from Minnesota who are actually alive.  How you've gone off and complained about them being mentioned in the same sentence is beyond me.  

            Then look at the fact that the comment was in a post about gay marriage, and I'd say that Franken isn't demonstrably different from Klobuchar or Wellstone (post-2000) on the issue.  I believe Wellstone voted for DOMA, so I'd tend to think that w/r/t gay marriage maybe Wellstone doesn't belong on the same list as Franken/Klobuchar, no?

            And of course only you have brought Humphrey into the conversation.  No one even mentioned his name so it's way off base.  

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:52:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wellstone, unfortunately, has been gone a decade (0+ / 0-)

              I listed the first name on the list. I could go through person by person why the people I listed are in a different league than Franken. I don't see a point to that.

          •  you have nothing against Franken aside from (0+ / 0-)

            your fairly common complaint about him being a carpetbagger, which is arguable at best.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:33:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That isn't personal. That's political (0+ / 0-)

              As a man, I have no problem with Franken. He is a good writer with decent acting abilities. But yes, moving to a state you left as a teenager just to run for political purposes is carpetbagging in my book.

      •  I used Franken and Klobochar (0+ / 0-)

        since they are current (as is this attempt to re-write the Constitution)

        ...and Wellstone because, well... if you are in Minnesota I'm sure I don't need to explain that to you.

        I am not MN-native and have seldom even been to the state, so I'll take your work on Mt-MinnRushmore nominees.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:15:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Navel Gazing (4+ / 0-)

    NPR Morning edition is talking about an electoral college tie.
    Can't wait to see for real that the race isn't even close.

    Remember, you can't have crazy without az.

    by Desert Rose on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:49:31 AM PDT

  •  According to Drudge... (9+ / 0-)

    Today's Rasmussen tracking poll will show the race tied at 48.

    Yesterday Romney lead 49-47.

    Earlier this week he lead 50-46.


  •  I made the mistake of listening to a few (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, KingTag, Sylv, kman23, askew

    minutes of Morrning Joke because the Joke was not there today. What the hell was David Gregory talking about? He talks about MItt winning most of the Independents and all that garbage.

    Gregory and most of the MSM still determined to talk about all the ways Willard can still win.  Chuck Todd says Obama's ceiling is 51 but Mitt's ceiling is higher at 52 or 53 pct. I gues she is talking popular vote?  But why does Mitt have a higher ceiling than Obama? Is this only in the Chuck Todd mind?

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:09:44 AM PDT

    •  Chuck Todd really said that? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, wishingwell, Sylv, kman23

      Completely without justification as even RCP's rather gerrymandered average now has a fractional Obama lead; he seems to have had the momentum in the last week; and the discrepancy with the state polling is also in his favor. Factor in 1.5% or so for minority candidates and I'd suggest Obama probably has a ceiling of 51-52, Romney more like 50.

    •  figure the undecided go with Romney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, wishingwell, Sylv

      That theory is thoroughly disproven and  most likely they break fairly even. I think they are right about Obama having a ceiling of about 51%. He got around 53% in a blowout landslide.
      I think Romney's upside is no better than 50% No way in hell he gets 52% with the polls the way they are.

      •  I don't agree. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, LordMike, wishingwell, Sylv, askew

        Let's remember that when OFA was polling, at least before the first debate, they were subtracting two points from his totals because they couldn't believe the electorate was that Democratic. That might have changed and/or might not be the reality on election day, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's true, particularly since our base is heavily dependent on nonwhites.

        Then there's our turnout operation.

        Will he get 57 percent? No. But if we are to believe that Obama is winning, would it really be surprising that he gets an extra point or two? Not to me.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:36:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  confusion between independent and undecided (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Sylv, Chachy

      I have a feeling pundits are extrapolating the results of independents who have already decided to determine the way undecideds will break.  There has been a lot of discussion about who these independents really are this year (disaffected baggers and embarrassed moderate 'pubs).  The makeup of the independents that have already decided may not be an accurate reflection of the remaining true undecideds.

    •  Yesterday (0+ / 0-)

      what seems to be some sort of offstage feud between Todd and Matthews came to the surface briefly, when Todd was forced to admit some good news for Obama, but couldn't resist throwing in with a HUGE sneer, " ... but your guy Critz in PA is going down!" Matthews more or less told him to shut up at that point with a heated, "I'm not going to follow up on that (asinine) remark." It was an ugly exchange that I'm sure the producers must have called Goatee Guy on afterwards.

      •  Yeah, that gratuitous your guy is in real trouble (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        bit he threw in at the end of the segment was very unprofessional. It put Critz on my "watch and hope" list for election night.

        I'm not sure what's up with Todd. I don't readily ascribe partisanship or toolery to most journalists, but he's really testy about something.

        "It doesn't matter what I do....People need to hear what I have to say. There's no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn't matter what I live. --Newty

        by Vico on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:30:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's said (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          that there was an episode at a presidential press conference where Todd felt Obama slighted him in front of all his colleagues, which would explain things more than "he's an R!" which he wasn't four years ago. I don't think it's that Todd wants Critz to lose as a Dem, but that he wants an R pickup in the state where Matthews considers himself a complete "expert" (though hasn't lived there for decades). It's pretty clear the two really dislike each other, but are forced to appear together at times.

  •  I am thinking the only people who should be (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, kman23, askew

    MSNBC discussing polling is Nate Silver of Sam Wang.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:10:15 AM PDT

  •  What a terrible ad Mr. Akin has produced. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, JBraden, el dorado gal

    I do love the fact that the last-minute infusion of money is being spent on crap like this.  To run an ad in the last week of the campaign which invites voters to revisit the exact moment when your campaign imploded is diabolically clever, eh?

    Do they not see the disconnect between here

    "I know Congressman Todd Akin knows what government's job is - that is to protect life, not to control life, like they did in Russia," she said. "The reason why I'm supporting Todd Akin is because I love this nation, I love my freedoms, I don't want to lose my freedoms.
    and the official position of Akin and the Republican party's platform will do exactly what she fears--lose her freedom to choose regarding issues affecting her body and letting government control and limit those choices instead.

    Despite all of the above, I am still holding my breath about this race.  If Missouri sends Todd Akin and his model of patriarchal theocracy to the U.S. Senate they will become a laughingstock if the consequences weren't so severe.

    A petty criminal is someone with predatory instincts but insufficient capital to form a corporation. --Clarence Darrow

    by stlsophos on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:16:10 AM PDT

  •  Listening to the radio on my way into work, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I hear that Staten Island and Queens (and other areas?) are being ignored. Supposedly, FEMA and the Red Cross are absent.

    I have a hard time believing this will turn into Obama and/or Cuomo's Katrina. There's obviously nothing (quick?) that can done about gas lines, but the other stuff, if it's true? Has anyone been following this?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:16:54 AM PDT

    •  Seems more about Bloomberg and the Marathon (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, LordMike, bjssp, Sylv

      From Twitter anyway.  There is FEMA stuff there last night etc according to the Gov so there is that.

      Staten Island always feels ignored anyway.

      •  ... (0+ / 0-)

        The reason I asked is that it's easy to get lost in the nonsense. Given that (a) they aren't idiots and (b) aren't anti-government, anti-FEMA, I have a hard time believing they fell down on the job so thoroughly, if at all.

        On a more cynical note, I did think, "Well, what about Walmart?" I am very glad that that store played a big role in helping people during Katrina, but it's...unrealistic to expect Walmart to function in the same way as FEMA, if only because they can't/won't do search and rescue.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:45:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NH: Obama 50-44 (12+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:21:02 AM PDT

    •  Weird (0+ / 0-)

      These guys had never to my knowledge previously produced a poll and now they've done 2 in the space of a week.

      Obviously I like the trend, since the one a week ago was only +3, but I'm not sure if it can be given too much weight given their absence of a track record.

    •  [knock on wood] (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The only thing that has me worried is that the recovery process in the states hit by the hurricane will foul up the election process. Other than that, it looks like we are headed for a good if not great night.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:38:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only thing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I don't feel great about is the House. I don't keep track of all the House races like many here, but based on a general sense I'm picking up in the polling, it seems like our gains there may be limited.

        •  I'm not sure what to think. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          A lot of it depends on the big states, like California and New York, and to a lesser extent Florida and Illinois. If we do very well there, I think we might be able to win it back.

          It's just that we can't lose people like Matheson and Tierney and expect this to happen. One or the other might be okay, and obviously neither would be great. Kissell, too, although I am not holding my breath.

          Then again, even if we don't, we are certainly keeping the Senate, if not making gains. As I said the other day, we have a not small shot of getting 58 seats, which is incredible. By itself that is good, but for 2014, it's great.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:49:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, I feel great (0+ / 0-)

            about the senate. By all measures, we're doing great there. We very well may pick up 1-2 seats, if not more. 58 is a stretch, though, because that would basically require all the races to break our way. That sort of thing can happen in a wave year, which this year doesn't seem to be.

            In the House, though, I'm actually wondering if we might pick up just a handful of seats now. I really don't see how we make it anywhere near a majority.

  •  Indiana: Romney 51-41 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, LordMike, Byblis

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:21:44 AM PDT

  •  10 most recent national polls by dates in field (9+ / 0-)

    6 Obama leads and 4 exact ties. Which candidate has momentum? I won't breathe easy just yet but I'm breathing slightly easier than I was.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:26:56 AM PDT

    •  It's so much nicer without Gallup, isn't it? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Paleo, sacman701

      The storm may well have saved them from complete humiliation, but I wonder if they'll abandon the tracker for the next cycle. If they want  do it again I hope it's only after a root-and-branch reform of their methods. They have at least 3 significant problems: huge fluctuations in the samples; persistent bias towards R demographics in the samples; and an outdated and over-restrictive LV screen.

      Unfortunately they seem to have a cultural problem that they too often respond to criticism by saying "this is the way we've always done things at Gallup so it must be ok", but the fact they made some significant modifications to their sampling methods in October was a pretty big red flag to me. That is in itself very risky, and indicates a tacit admission that they were getting things very wrong. Perhaps they will finally eat some humble pie and realise that they need to make big reforms before the next cycle.

    •  Obama is narrowly holding on to a slim tie. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
  •  Substantively, the jobs report seems to be (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, LordMike, itskevin

    pretty good news. Better than expected payroll number for last month, and positive revisions for Aug and Sept.

    The headlines generally seem to be good. Wish the UE would have stayed flat or fell, but good that it is still under 8.0%.

    The market reaction seems positive too.

    Dont know if this provides a boost to Obama, but I dont see how it helps Romney. And if Obama does have some momentum, it probably keeps it intact.

    •  Always good to meet or beat forecasts (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, jj32, itskevin, kman23

      and consensus was for 7.9% u/e and 125,000 payrolls. So matched and beat; and got a nice additional boost from the upward revisions. Overall, a very good report.

      I don't think it swings any votes, but it provides nothing for Romney, and at this late stage  - when it's looking increasingly likely that he's heading for defeat - that's all that really matters from an electoral perspective.

  •  That anti-Fischer ad is pretty funny, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I must say.  The attack itself is a nice bit of character demolition, but the "is your land next?" ending feels a bit silly.  I doubt anybody thinks she's going to be driving around the state suing people for their land.

  •  WI Sen RAss: 48-48 (0+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:52:21 AM PDT

  •  I finally figured out @MittRomney is the REAL Mitt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DrPhillips, Rich in PA

    I have been following MittRomney on Twitter, thinking that it was some ironic, comedic impostor, but he is the real one!

    "Mitt Romney ‏@MittRomney
    Jobless rate is higher today than it was when @BarackObama took office. Sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill."

  •  Bill Clinton to Raleigh, NC tomorrow (10+ / 0-)


    OFA clearly sees something here. Michelle going on Monday to Charlotte.

    Maybe they feel with the focus on PA by Romney, they can squeak out a win in NC.

  •  Rasmussen Pres: tied at 48 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, EcosseNJ

    It's official. And approval up to 50-49.

    He also promises new state numbers from MI and OH today. Can't wait.

  •  Polling storm on its way from PPP (9+ / 0-)
  •  Thank you to Daily Kos for keeping me sane! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Only Daily Kos and Nate Silver have kept me from jumping out of my window!  It certainly seems like this is coming home for OBAMA!  (Illinois son here.....) and I will be proudly casting my vote for Obama/Biden. I want Duckworth, Baldwin, Kaine, Tester, McCaskill, Warren, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and even Kerrey to all win too! I am a teacher and make barely enough to get by.... but have been sending small donations all over America trying to help where it matters.  Fingers Crossed because America needs 4 more years of President Obama and a Democratic Senate!

    PS. Chuck Todd is such a monster douchebag and Joe Scarborrough such an ass I have not watched MSNBC in 4 months.  I miss Rachel Maddow.... but won't even give MSNBC a single MINUTE of my viewership.

    PSS.  Is it just me or is Peggy Noonan completely losing it?  Her best days are long gone.

  •  Democrats have a realistic (though unlikely) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    shot at holding 58 Senate seats in 2013. If that happens, President Obama should appoint Collins and Kirk to Cabinet positions.

    "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

    by xcave on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:39:15 AM PDT

  •  I get nervous about MO Senate.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, The Caped Composer

    I know Akin is a complete f*cktard.... but I worry about Missouri.  I mean, when I lived in MO for school... they almost passed a constitutional ammendment to legalize COCKFIGHTING for heaven's sake. Will the rural voters who voted for cocks LAST time vote for the cock THIS time?

  •  Mitt Romney: the new John McCain, visiting Philly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    on Sunday --

    In a striking last-minute shift, the Romney campaign has decided to invest its most precious resource — the candidate’s time — in a serious play to win Pennsylvania.

    Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored in the race for the White House.

    Mitt is unable to move Ohio; ergo, Mitt is desperate.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:59:53 AM PDT

  •  Molly Ball scores early voting (0+ / 0-)

    Her view: Obama is looking good in NV, IA, while Romney is looking good in NC, CO, FL.

    I agree on Nevada and North Carolina, but the others are a bit harder to project. Obama had decent margins in IA and CO 4 years ago so can afford some slipppage, but these both look rather close; in FL there are some changes in the rules which may make it difficult to match 2008's Dem early vote, but could mean a better performance on election day to compensate for weaker EV numbers.

    The other battleground states either don't indicate party registration or have low levels of early voting.

    •  Romney (0+ / 0-)

      may be cannibalizing his election day vote in a few of those states by shifting it forward. So I'm not sure how much we can read into simple 2008/2012 comparisons of EV vote numbers by party.

      •  That's not a hypothetical we should count on (0+ / 0-)

        Just FYI

        •  Who's counting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          on it? We're doing everything in our power to get out both the early and election day votes.

          Take NC. Clinton's there tomorrow (the last day of early voting), and Michelle's there on Monday. Given the lesser importance of the state in our electoral college strategy, Obama himself is looking elsewhere. But I think this stills suggests we're playing for all the marbles.

          And then FL: We're targeting sporadic voters very aggressively in our EV efforts there, and with solid results, it seems. That's playing hard and playing smart.

    •  I think she's wrong about CO. (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans are ahead by 3, compared to being down by 4 in 2008, which she says means republicans are "winning." But Obama won the state by 9 in '08. All things being equal, seems like that translates to a 2-3 pt. win for Obama this year.

      Also, Dems lost the early vote even worse in 2010, but still won both Gov and Senate races.

    •  meh - i'm getting tired of these "analyses" about (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      distantcousin, kman23, bumiputera, askew

      who is "winning" the early voting.

      1) It's clear that Romney is pushing early voting more than McCain did, so it's not surprising that Republicans are doing better in early voting that in 2008. Ho-hum.

      2) These analysises can't tell us who the early voters are voting for, which means that they're not useful for all that much.  It makes more sense just to look at the polls, which take into account early voters. This way we can get a better picture of who is actually winning the election, and not just "winning the early vote" (which doesn't matter if you lose the election).

      3) The only real interesting analysis of early voting is to see how well the campaigns are turning out "unlikely voters" - those who would be screened out of LV voter models. This is the only information information that wouldn't already be captured in the polls (unless they have already voted).  Unfortunately, this info can't be read off the early voting stats in any straightforward way.

  •  Ras - Montana Senate: (5+ / 0-)

    Montana Senate: Tester (D) 49%, Rehberg (R) 48%

  •  WE ASK America (0+ / 0-)

    Fisher 53.6% Kerrey 41.2% Undecided 5.2%

  •  Don't know if old news or not, but GA-12 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bumiputera, abgin

    (without leaners)
    48% Barrow
    42% Anderson

    (with leaners)
    50% Barrow
    44% Anderson

  •  PPP Colo (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, The Caped Composer

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

    Our new Colorado poll for @lcvoters finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-46. We'll have one last CO poll Monday:

  •  NPR reports big anti-abortion movement in (0+ / 0-)

    Missouri is going to help Akin.  Who is helping out McCaskill?

  •  WA governor (0+ / 0-)

    For those of you not familiar with the race, Inslee has copied the Romney playbook (taken on the role) of not really explaining why he should be gov, except that ... well ... he's running, isn't he! Early on he had a somewhat (technically) lame ad introducing himself, which seemed geared to WA natives, so I as a transplant found lacking; basically, it showed him as a nice guy with roots in the state. Okay ...
    McKenna's ads have been visually appealing, with him saying what he hopes to accomplish, etc. In contrast, Inslee has had a second ad in which he appears, vaguely (poorly) focusing on jobs, as well as far more effective attack ads on McKenna's record (in which he does not appear himself). The Inslee campaign frankly has done a pretty bad job, but I get the sense Inslee himself never "got" how competitive this'd be -- like Romney, he thought "showing up" was 90% of it.

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