I'd thought I'd do a quick rundown of how all the states (and, in the cases of Maine and Nebraska, congressional districts) are looking according to Nate's model as of the latest update. Listed below are all the states where probabilities for an Obama win are between 1% and 99% (so no California, no Utah, etc.). And note that I've used the forecast for Tuesday instead of the nowcast.
Here's how it looks:
NM: 98.8%
MI: 98.6%
MN: 98.4%
OR: 98.3%
PA: 96.3%
ME-2: 94.5%
WI: 91.2%
NV: 87.2%
OH: 80.3%
IA: 78.6%
VA: 65.9%
CO: 64.5%
FL: 44.8%
NC: 20.0%
NE-2: 5.9%
AZ: 3.2%
MT: 1.8%
All in all, some great looking numbers. Florida's almost even - back to where it was nearly a month ago. But no reason to be overconfident. It's crunch time - to anyone near a a swing state with free time this weekend, spend a few hours helping out. Or do some phone-banking. We got this.
6:47 PM PT: Whoops; the poll below should say "Who will win the 2012 election?" :P