News outlets often write obituaries for major figures in advance: while, say, Larry King is still out there wowing the ladies, have no doubt that every major wire service, newspaper, and news network already has an obituary for him on file.
In that spirit, here's the first postmortem of the 2012 Presidential election; or, if you will, Mitt Romney's political obituary. Head below the fleur de Kos for a breakdown of key factors by this tame* racing driver.
1. Obama has been quite a weak candidate, Surprisingly so to me, but there's no denying, I was expecting a lot more charisma and aggression (earlier on, lately he's apparently stopped hitting the decaf). Looking back on his first term, in terms of political savvy, he's no Bill Clinton.
(Yes, I am aware of the differences in the Congress each one faced. Let's not get lost in the trees here, this is a forest analysis. If you honestly had to rate each man's political savvy, well, Bill is at the top of the charts of all Presidents and Barack, wherever he palces, isn't on par with Bill.)
But Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan. He's not even George W. Bush, hell, he's not even (remotely) George H.W. Bush. I'm sure there are plenty of Republicans who are kicking themselves for not running in this cycle. Romney is a freakin' gift, not a Palin-size gift by any means, but even better than running the very mediocre John Kerry.
Worse than John Kerry. Just let that settle in for a minute.
(Seriously, I'm not saying he's a bad guy or a bad legislator, but as a candidate for President he's not going to go down in history as remotely memorable)
So you have a less-than-amazing candidate versus a less-than-mediocre candidate.
2. When they look back at this election in a few years, the early historical perspective will, I think, focus on the way the web affected it. 2008 was the first time we saw it - very few undecideds in the last couple of months, If anyone had the slightest interest, they've already picked a side. Once someone picks a side, almost no gaffe by one guy or helpful moment by the other will get them to switch. And it becomes less likely they'll just lose interest - the internet keeps them engaged, its a big tribal thing in social interaction on the net.
Mitt was behind even with his convention bounce, he went from five to seven down in swing states to three or four. This late in the game, there's no closing that gap.
So the internet served to heat up the oven and bake the cake a little sooner. That also makes the results a bit more brittle, it would take less to break it up and rework the race.
But nothing on that par has happened. No October surprise from either side. So far the only unexpected wild card has been Frakenstorn, and obviously that just gives Obama a chance to look Presidential.
In short, Obama started out ahead, stayed there, and the numbers today are about where they were in earl August (convention bounce, then it disappears after the first debate). Engagement on the net locked 'em all in early.
3. Commnications strategy: microtargeting of messages .The Obama team uses cutting edge marketing analysis to run the most sophisticated message strategy ever seen in politics.
The Obama team does an amazing air game - pull together the ,best marketing analytics to do their polling, to microtarget messages (web, email, social network, snail mail, phone trees). They don't run the same ads statewide, Romney and the conservative SuperPACs generally do
Which is ironic. Mitt is "the business guy", but he's really the finance side of business. He doesn't actually plan out large scale logistics. And his communications team is atrocious.
Obama's communications strategy - great choices on messaging, smart tactical buys of airtime, great microtargeting of internet messages via multiple channels - will go down in history as a model approach, and a major factor in his victory.
- The Stig*
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* "tame" in this context is intended to imply "domesticated" in only the most general sense, and not neccessarily housebroken.
* This diary is in no way affiliated with the BBC, or Top Gear Productions, but we do use a phone alert tone that consists of Jeremy Clarkson bellowing, "I've got a text!", so there is that.
* Rule of three