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Above the fold I will offer what are, for now my predictions.

EV  347- 191.  The states Obama won last time now have 359 EVs.   Subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE takes you to 347.   Obama holds all other states, NC and FL  and CO narrowly.  He narrowly loses AZ.

Popular Vote  currently thinking 51-47-2.   I note Romney has ceiling in most battlegrounds of 47 or 46.  I presume 2% to minor parties.  If that goes down, it could be only a 3 point margin, but I expect Obama to be >50%, thus being 1st(wrong) 2nd President since Eisenhower  (also Reagan) to reach a majority of popular vote twice.

Senate  56-42-2  (independents Sanders & King, both voting with Dems) - in other words, we hold ALL of our seats, even NE (late movement towards Kerry) and pick off ME, IN, NV, MA & AZ.  I am least confident on Tester holding his seat, but think the presence of a Libertarian Senate candidate may be enough to enable him to hang on.  

House -  we net 16  - we win 23 current Republican seats but lose 7 current Dem seats  -  Good news, we defeat at least 3 (and maybe all 4) of Walsh, King, Bachmann and West.

Go below the cheese doodle for some explanation of my rationale.

Let me do some state specifics first.

First, let's take OH, which is key.

There is no doubt about the superiority of the Obama ground game.  If you were not aware, most of the organizing for the repeal of SB 5 was done with OFA folks very much involved, which probably helped in identifying voters who could also be turned to for the election.  There is also Romney and the auto industry, which by now should be well understood at this site.

Next, North Carolina.  My gut sense is that this is a state which OFA never left.  The the ability to turn out early voters, the changes in registration with increasing numbers of people moving in from the more liberal areas of the North East, and the fact that the Obama campaign despite the lack of a late visit from the President has continued to advertise all are a part of my calculation.  I also note that PPP has never had it as more than about a 1 point margin either way.  I think in a situation that close the advantage is to Obama.  

Next, Florida.  The Hispanic vote in the state is decreasingly Cuban - the largest increase has been from Puerto Ricans, who tilt significantly D in their orientation.  I am also hearing from people on the ground that early voting in the I-4 corridor shows significant improvement from Democrats over 4 years ago.  I have seen figures from both Hillsborough County (Tampa) and Orange County (Orlando) with explanations of how much of an improvement this is.  Despite attempts to restrict votes of groups that are heavily Democratic, it has resulted in something of a pushback that may actually have ginned up a greater willingness to vote than might otherwise have been there.

Next, some general comments.

First, the media idea of there being Romney momentum was overstated, although it did have the potential of driving the narrative.  That momentum began to be blunted after the VP debate and was clearly gone with momentum moving back towards Obama BEFORE polling included date post-Sandy.  Republicans are preparing to explain Romney's loss on the grounds of his momentum being stopped by Sandy, but that's baloney - they were already "expanding the map" before Sandy hit.  why?  Because they realized they had lost Nevada, and it was increasingly clear that they were going to lose OH, in which case the election was over unless they could flip a state not previously considered a battleground - WI. MN, MI, or PA.  

The key day in this late process was Wednesday, with overwhelming polling data in the direction of Obama.  On Thursday the talking heads were basically acknowledging the reality.  The meme less frequently gave out the notion that Romney could catch up.  This morning even Mark Halperin acknowledged that where Obama is going does not represent panic or concern on the part of his campaign, but is a blocking maneuver to prevent Romney from closing the gap.  This has some meaning for final decisions, which i will explain below.

Most of the polling understates Latino participation.  We know this.  Latino Decisions has  documented and explained it.  We saw it clearly in NV in the Senate race in 2010, where final polls had Angle winning by 3 but Reid actually won by 5 - an 8 point differential.  That clearly changes how we look at states like CO, NV, FL, and AZ, but increasingly matters in both VA and NC, albeit on a much smaller scale.

In the Senate, there is the further impact of statements by the likes of Mourdock and Akin.  That actually flows somewhat into other races.  

In the House, the Democrats will lose at least 5 seats they currently hold, and conceivably as many as 8.  That makes it exceedingly hard to take control, and absent a national popular vote margin of 6 or more, control of the House remains out of reach.

But then there is this.

The late news has been helping Obama.  

He has appeared Presidential - and bi-partisan - in his responding to Sandy.

Romney has taken a hit for his statements and advertisements on the auto industry, especially with the news of the pushback from Chrysler and GM.

And one must remember that Romney jumped in the polls after the 1st debate, but i think this is in part misinterpreted.   Yes, he appeared somewhat reasonable, and thus acceptable as a President.  Simply appearing on the stage with the incumbent and surviving always helps a challenger.  

But for Romney, there was this -  there were many who did not like him, but if they thought he could win, they would vote for him - because they hate Obama?  Whatever the reason, if they come to believe that Romney cannot win, they may stay home, which has impact not only in the electoral college, but also in some close House and Senate races.

There is some evidence this is already happening.  I commend to you this diary by Fair40, which points out how Romney's crowds are getting smaller.

I also note something Mike Allen of Politico said on Morning Joe this morning, about how Obama and Dems are actually running MORE ads than Romney and the Republicans, and the disparity in proportion of those ads which are negative.  Checking his Political Playbok column, he said  that from October 24-30 Obama ran 35,731 ads to 17,277  fro Romney.  Even if you put in the outside groups for both candidates, the numbers are 79,089  to 64,945.  Further, Romney's are 99% negative while Obama's are only 85% negative (among independent groups the Rs were 89% and the Ds were 87%). At this point voters are getting turned off to negative advertising because they have seen so much.  A candidate really needs to make a positive closing argument.  I find what I have seen from Romney in Virginia weak, whereas having Obama look into the camera and ask for people's vote is effective.

Then there is the matter of surrogates, both in person and in advertisements.  Let's take those appearing on behalf of the tickets.  I ask you simply, who makes a bigger difference, Bill Clinton or John McCain?  I think that makes a difference: the Secretary in charge of explaining "s....." or the crotchety old man still bitter about his loss?  Yes, you have Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, but I think 5 events by Bill Clinton in FL today more than offsets that.  Then there is the Colin Powell endorsement, now featured in both TV and radio ads in battleground states -  I am encountering them in Missouri.  And then there are the #2s and the spouses.  Personally I think Joe Biden comes across as far more effective than does Paul Ryan, even in things as silly as his doing a Top Ten with David Letterman last night, with a smile on his face.  As for the spouses, the Dems have both out, the Repubs occasionally have Ann Romney out.  Simply question, who helps more, Michelle or Ann?  And then there is Jill, who is also effective on her own.  I note the schedule for today, in which the Dems cover OH, WI, VA, PA, NC & FL, while the Repubs only cover OH, IA & CO.  Mitt Romney is doing 2 events in OH, while Obama is doing 3 -  and Clinton is doing FIVE in FL.  I see the Dems with the pedals to the metal and I am not seeing that from the Republicans.

Finally, there are the job numbers that came out today.  Yes, there is a small uptick in unemployment, from 7.8 to 7.9%.  But that is not on what the media is focusing.  Rather, it is the 171,00non-farm jobs created.  This is well over the consensus prediction of 125,000.   It adds to the sense of many people that the economy is getting better.  And that may mean some undecided or unsure voters will be more likely to decide to keep the President in office.

I will lay out a bit more of my thinking in my tip jar.

Thanks for reading.

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Comment Preferences

  •  A few additional observations (176+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    graciella, TomP, Debbie in ME, followyourbliss, Dobber, arizonablue, Jdid, deep, blueoasis, wtpvideo, MKinTN, ZappoDave, MoDem, dickensgirl, manucpa, OhioNatureMom, tripletma, elijah311, falcon, Mark Tapley, a2nite, Hey338Too, CocoaLove, stevenwag, David54, Sherri in TX, BasharH, Beetwasher, archidem, Its a New Day, bjanis, Wisdumb, catwho, Kristopher, soaglow, pamelabrown, Sunnybrook, free as a butterfly, anodnhajo, Vicky, NanaoKnows, Mary Mike, IM, kestrel9000, wwjjd, Ed in Montana, mkfarkus, egarratt, MA Mom, peterj911, moose67, miracle11, Empower Ink, deha, MNGrandma, Wreck Smurfy, Wee Mama, lordrings, statsone, Little Lulu, Bule Betawi, Shockwave, alasmoses, 2questions, motherlu, wild hair, just like that, Nowhere Man, Molly Weasley, susan in sc, global citizen, JWC, GeorgeXVIII, Shotput8, madgranny, kevin k, Involuntary Exile, annrose, greengemini, Glass Navel, kevinpdx, TX Freethinker, janmtairy, dbg, VickiL, ER Doc, annan, Kurt from CMH, Jaleh, Senor Unoball, buckstop, ItsSimpleSimon, gulfgal98, bronxcharlie, JanetT in MD, Sembtex, Blu Gal in DE, ardyess, dreamweaver1, burana, MT Spaces, sostos, jwinIL14, steamed rice, amsterdam, dotsright, newpioneer, Dave in AZ, Front Toward Enemy, elziax, rapala, HoundDog, spooks51, 4thgendem, MadGeorgiaDem, TruthFreedomKindness, nirbama, LSophia, johnosahon, deminva, StrayCat, BlackQueen40, Palmetto Progressive, Boise Grad, Chitown Charlie, Just Bob, fiercefilms, glendaw271, northernlights, RJH, ichibon, retLT, hardart, annetteboardman, limae, matrix, Libby Shaw, Dhavo, shinobi9, letsgetreal, NM Ray, Desert Rose, GoGoGoEverton, America Jones, BlueOak, BenderRodriguez, DemNoir, Mistral Wind, chloris creator, surfbird007, Janie14, sebastianguy99, MikePhoenix, cwsmoke, randallt, icebergslim, lawstudent922, JohnB47, MarkInSanFran, doroma, ladybug53, science nerd, RW, marabout40, side pocket, pademocrat, blaneyboy, rubyclaire, uciguy30, msgeorgia blue nurse, Thaddaeus Toad, Blue Shark, RandomNonviolence, PeteZerria, jpw, tofumagoo

    First, worst case.

    Popular vote only 2% margin, with Obama at ony 49%.  I consider that very unlikely, and is only possible if there is significant falloff in voting in NY, CT and Dem parts of NJ as well as additional heavy weather on election.

    Electoral vote down to 294 - Obama loses NC, FL and CO.  

    Senate - 53 -  we lose 3 (MT, ND, NE) and only pick up 3 (ME, MA, IN)

    House - net of under 10, going in lockstep with national vote, possibly not picking up both seats in NH, for example.  We do have problems with weak candidates and redistricting that does not favor us.  Also seeing perhaps 2 of the tea party types surviving.

    Best case:  Obama by 6 because of late movement in his direction, and perhaps some weaker Romney support either staying home b/c he cannot win and/or moving to 3rd party candidates.  In  electoral votes, the only other state that would move is AZ to Obama, taking him to 358 electoral votes.

    Nothing additional in Senate -  perhaps because I am too optimistic about Kerrey in NE.

    In House -  then an outside chance of taking control narrowly, at 6% national margin -  that requires all 4 Tea Party candidates, taking back both NH seats, possibly picking off a seat in Virginia (which I view as highly unlikely), and overcoming having some weak candidates in otherwise winnable races and the redrawing of districts that more favor Republicans.

    Am I optimistic.  Perhaps a bit.

    ON a pure data basis with what is available right now, I would probably say 2-3%, 303 EVs, 54 seats in Senate, and net 12-13 in House.

    But my gut keeps speaking.  And because I think some of what is happening is not YET showing up in the polling.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:48:04 AM PDT

  •  Oh, please, please, please (14+ / 0-)

    I hope you're right.  I think the only thing I'm worried about now is outright robbery.  Citizens United $ have been a dud at least on the national level and certainly in Ohio where Brown is kicking butt.

    "Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine." -- Patti Smith

    by followyourbliss on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:56:52 AM PDT

  •  More optimistic than me, (30+ / 0-)

    although I think Obama will win by more than pundits are predicting.  I'm guess around 300 EV.

    I suspect Romney will get at least one of Fla., Colo., and Va.   Probably Fla.   I think Romney will get NC also.

    Fla. Colo. and Va., all are close, with Obama maybe having a slight lead in Colo., and Va.  

    But the good thing is that we win even if Obama loses all three and NC.   I think that outcome is unlikley.

    So my guess is 277 on the low side vrs. somewhere around 310 on the high side.  

    Just guesswork, though.

    I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

    by TomP on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:57:12 AM PDT

  •  Not sure I understand this (4+ / 0-)
    1st President since Eisenhower to reach a majority of popular vote twice.
    What about Reagan? I think he just barely got above 50% in 1980.

    Proud supporter of actually prosecuting rape, even if it requires extradition!

    by zegota on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:58:37 AM PDT

  •  Yikes. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Clem Yeobright

    Without using the pejorative form of this word, I view your prediction as delusional.

    My prediction is Obama wins, 281 electoral votes and +.4 popular vote. Many things could go wrong, only a few additional things could go right, however.

    it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

    by Addison on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:59:25 AM PDT

  •  I have been saying in the 320-330 range (6+ / 0-)

    but I would take 270.

    A win is a win is a win.

    Go OBAMA!!!

    "Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room." - President Merkin Muffley

    by Farkletoo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:00:06 AM PDT

    •  My guess is 303 or 332 EV- here's why; it's simple (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Farkletoo

      I am picking all of the states in which Obama has a current edge, however small, in the pollster.com averages. This gets him to 303 EV.

      Among the battlegrounds, this includes OH, IA, WI, MI, NH, NV, VA. These states have been polled ad infinitum. Even when margins in these states are small, if Obama has the lead, it's reasonable to assume he's going to win.

      Florida, with 29 votes, looks like a pure tossup to me, if you just look at the polls. The early voting numbers are strong for Obama and the state seems to be trending his way, but he doesn't yet have a clear lead. So, I call this a tossup.

      Hence, my hesitation between 303 and 332. If push came to shove (if I had to put money on it), I would bet 332, based on the early voting and pro-Obama trend in FL.

      NC seems to me eminently possible, and GOTV could win it for Obama, but he doesn't have a currently lead, so I'm not picking it form him now. I'll take another look right before the election.

      In 2008 I predicted Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes and he got 365. I missed CD-2 in Nebraska. My secret, if such it be, was simply to predict that Obama would win the states in which he had a lead on pollster.com. It's a simple method, but in 2008 it was effective.

  •  This is a stick in Nate Silver's eye, isn't it? (8+ / 0-)

    If we put any confidence in polling, holding with 53 Senate seats (including the two independents) will be cause for jubilation.

    Democrats had 23 seats to defend and Rs 10. Winning this election 23-10 will be a major triumph.

    Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

    by Clem Yeobright on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:05:42 AM PDT

    •  Looking at the trends (7+ / 0-)

      let's look at the seats that were supposed to be in trouble

      Sherrod Brown is safe.

      Tim Kaine will hold Webb's seat.

      Bill Nelson is safe.

      Claire McCaskill keeps getting gifts.

      So we then look at the more problematic holds.

      ND -  Heidekamp has been elected state wide, and while Berg is the incumbent Congressman, he only got there by the Tea Party explosion in 2010.  He has said some extreme things on women's health, and Heidi is considered far more likeable.

      MT - what recent polling I have seen has Tester ahead when the Libertarian candidate is considered.  This is also a state where I will not be surprised to see Gary Johnson break 5% -  remember, Clinton carried MT in 1992 because of how well Perot did.  So this MIGHT be a reach, but i do not think that much of one.

      NE -  this is the one place I am being really optimistic.  But as Kos has noted, the polls had closed on this even before the Hagel endorsement.  The Republican is not a particularly inspiring candidate, Kerrey has previously been elected statewide 3 times, once as Governor and twice as Senator.  I think some older more conservative voters probably still think kindly of him.  And my gut is that given the sense that Obama is going to get reelected might make a few marginal voters tilt his way to have at least one Democrat representing the state.

      On pickups -  I think ME, MA and IN are done deals at this point.  That leaves AZ and NV.  I actually think AZ may be a better bet, given what I expect to be a pretty massive Hispanic turnout.  And Shelley has had her ethical problems highlighted in NV.  But I look back at 2010, when the polls had Harry Reid 3 points down and he won by 5.  The one pollster who nailed it was Mark Mellman.  The last time he polled this race was 2nd week of October, and he had the D up by 3, but still with a substantial undecided.  We are seeing that for all practical purposes the Romney campaign is now conceding NV.  Might that mean some weaker Republican voters do not turn out?  Latino registration is up and enthusiastic, and then there is the machine of Harry Reid.

      Going back to NE -  Republicans are clearly worried about this seat if Karl Rove is dumping in $250k+ late.  

      I think I saw a tweet yesterday from Dana Houle, our own DHinMI, where he was saying 57 Senate seats - leaving out Kerry.   Remember, he is an experienced political hand, having among other things managed Paul Hodes successful House campaign in NH.  

      I do not, given the trend of recent data, think I am being exceedingly optimistic.  

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:19:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would love to have 57 seats (0+ / 0-)

        but I don't expect it to happen. Montana is reasonably close but NE and ND are out of reach and probably AZ too.

        I also am amazed the Presidential popular vote is this close, given that Romney was never that popular even among Republicans, and given his wobbly campaign performance. A lot of voters are apparently willing to just vote the party, even with a weak candidate. I think that goes for many of the Senate races too, unfortunately.

        •  amazed the Presidential popular vote is this close (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JohnB47

          When I consider 1) the makeup of the Republican base, and 2) the skin color of the President, it not's surprising to me.

          A very large percentage of Romney's votes are going to come from the Old Confederacy, where he'll rack up huge majorities over that uppity Negro who refuses to know his place.

  •  My prediction (7+ / 0-)

    Obama gets 303 EV, loses Florida and North Carolina.

    Senate +0, each side picks up 3 seats from the other side.

    •  Yep (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KJB Oregon, hester, wuod kwatch

      I agree.  I think your predictions are closer to how it will end up.

      I also think Obama wins the popular vote by just over 2%.

      •  I think the polls are now lagging (6+ / 0-)

        and too many of them are underestimating both Hispanic and African-American votes.  A number of them are already at 2%, without all of the recent news having been fully absorbed by the voting population.

        And I am increasingly hearing talking heads reframing things as a probable Obama victory.

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:21:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  TKen; I have a ton of faith in your judgment. . . (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pamelabrown

          And you have caused me to reconsider my E=303 and a 1% victory in the popular vote.

          The one thing that I can't process is the number of teevee and print pundits (see Washpo) who are calling this the "closest election I eva saw."

          OK, I get the meme about keeping eyeballs and the horse race analogy - - but, I would also think that now is the time to get real since one week's memory isn't asking too much and people will remember Cilliza and Todd making asses of themselves.

          I am only 42, so I don't have an entire lifetime of experience to draw upon as you do - - but I don't recall a disparity between what the data shows (e.g. Obama's fire wall in the E.C. has been nearly invulnerable) and what they are saying.

          One last point, generally speaking, I think that the public's hatred of Romney personally comes very close to matching the racism against Obama.  I can't help but think that many in the punditry not only know that Obama will win - - but know damn well that he BETTER win or we are headed over a cliff.

          A LOT of things just not adding up.  Really appreciate anyone's thoughts on this, especially TKen.

          Blessed are the peacemakers, the poor, the meek and the sick. Message to Repug Fundies: "DO you really wonder "what would Jesus do?" I didn't think so.

          by 4CasandChlo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:06:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  pundit started to switch (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            4CasandChlo, pamelabrown

            after the massive polling day Obama had earlier this week.  I heard it from Mark Halperin, I heard bits of it from Chuck Todd, I saw it to some degree in how things like the Bloomberg endorsement were covered on network news

            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

            by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:30:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  this recovering journalist (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            4CasandChlo, Mr Robert

            can tell you that newspapers and TV companies are in big financial trouble and have been for some time. Newspapers that used to tilt left have veered sharply right in line with the views of their corporate overlords -- it's a survival tactic. And if you're a journalist who wishes to continue to collect a (big) paycheck, you'll toe that (R) party line no matter what the data show.

          •  Thing is, Cilliza and Todd are only making asses (0+ / 0-)

            of themselves from our perspective; they've hedged their bets sufficiently to provide themselves cover when Romney loses.

            They're able to get away with this for two reasons:  

            1) the pundit class, like the "DKos class" pays attention, but virtually all of the pundit class are conniving to hedge their bets; no one can be called out for having gotten it wrong if they're all saying "tossup!" Plus, the pundit class have bigger megaphones than do the DKos class, so the general public is hearing "tossup!".  

            2)  the general public just don't pay close enough attention, so the pundit class gets away with it.

            When Nate Silver and Krugman are maybe the biggest megaphones the DKos class have, and all the rest of punditry disses them, the general public just aren't going to dig deeper.

            A homo in a bi-national relationship - at 49, I had to give up my career, leave behind my dying father, my family & friends and move to Europe. And I'm one of the *lucky* ones: Immigration Equality

            by aggieric on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 12:28:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  My head tells me 332 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wuod kwatch

          But my heart says 347.

          This is a year when the Electoral College makes me really happy.  Obama starts with 237 electoral votes -- a number that will be reassured when PA, MI, and MN are called relatively quickly for him.

          I hope NH gets called quickly, and WI and IA.  And OH before too long.  And that's the death knell.  

          But wouldn't it be fun to have VA called fairly early (it's an early poll-closer), then OH!  That would also be the game.  

          Nobody puts Baby in a binder!

          by deminva on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:36:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  NC is going to Obama. Will be VERY tight. /nt (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sherri in TX, pamelabrown, Manny

      Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
      I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
      —Spike Milligan

      by polecat on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:12:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  me too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester

      Romney wins one elector in Nebraska, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida.  Obama win the rest of the swing states. most narrowly Virginia.

      senate either +0 or -1.

    •  I also worry about North Carolina. (0+ / 0-)

      Less about Florida.

  •  i hope you are correct ... (0+ / 0-)

    my prediction is a little more pessimistic than yours :)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I hope this is one time that i am not right ...

  •  The Hurricane was a sobering event (7+ / 0-)

    for most Americans.   I think you may see an uptick for Obama in the state polling conducted during and after. New NH poll today seems to bear this out.

    The downside was that people glued to their TV's for Hurricane coverage are also subjected to nonstop negative ads, but you would expect some cognizance of the disconnect between the President's actions and the way he is depicted in those ads.

    Romney needed those 3-4 days "lost" to the Hurricane more than Obama did. But if the GOP spin is that the Hurricane impacted the perspective of the electorate, that's not a particularly forceful argument since we're hiring--or rehiring-- a President for just that situation, among others.

    •  The big government argument (8+ / 0-)

      The hurricane provides the necessary push on why government is necessary and Christie sealed the deal that Obama is competent.

      If Obama does better than the polls predict, it will be attributed to the response to the hurricane.

      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

      by MoDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:14:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Big government argument is important (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sherri in TX, annan

        but so is the climate one.  I think people get that something is just wrong with our environment.  There is a growing skepticism with climate skeptics.  It's hard NOT to come to the conclusion that something is just wrong.  We have had THREE major storms in the Northeast in the last 14 months.  We will have lost a cumulative of about one month in certain parts of power in those 14 months.  We got a freak blizzard in October last year.  We just got hit by a frankenstorm of monstrous proportions.  I don't think that there will be too amny politicians in these parts running on the idea that there is no climate change when our lying eyes tell us otherwise.  

        I think the combination of the two will sway some more people our way and in the future I think that idiots like Paul Ryan running on gutting FEMA and weather monitoring programs along with a policy of drill, drill, drill will be ridiculed out of office.  At least I really hope so.  

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:27:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  and whoever heard of a hurricane (0+ / 0-)

          causing a blizzard?  Even when hurricanes came ashore in Nova Scotia they brought rain, not snow.  This is truly EXTREME weather.

          As my father used to say,"We have the best government money can buy."

          by BPARTR on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:05:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Obama should have taken up that argument earlier (0+ / 0-)

          in the debates at least. Oh well. As long as he is really ready to do take on the issue in the coming term (assuming he gets it) that is what really counts.

          But in terms of the campaign, it's a missed opportunity.

          We don't inherit the world from the past. We borrow it from the future.

          by minorityusa on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:36:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Think downticket. We need to run up the score. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    catwho, wuod kwatch

    Is it even possible to recapture the House?

    That should be the next goal.

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:12:03 AM PDT

    •  difficult, very difficult on the House (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GeorgeXVIII, Michael James, ER Doc

      in part because of how redistricting was done.

      Let me give an example of how things can break.

      Iowa is going from 5 to 4 congressional seats.

      The current balance is 3D - 2R.

      Dave Loebsack should be safe. 1 D seat.
      Bruce Braley should be safe.  that takes it to two D seats.

      Two incumbents are facing off:  D Leonard Boswell v R Tom Latham.   That COULD go either way.

      Christie Vilsack is in a close race against incumbent R Steve King.   That COULD go either way.

      Thus delegation could be 2-2 = loss of 1 Dem Seat
      3-1 DEm  = lost of 1 Rep seat

      4-0 Dem - loss of 2 Rep seats.

      We really need a sweep here to have any chance of taking back the House.  And even if we get it, still a long hall.

      We are going to LOSE some current seats.

      I expect Tierney in MA, Critz in PA to both lose. Larry Kissell in NC will lose. We have already lost one Dem seat in CA which now has 2 Repubs in the top two runoff.  It will be hard for Hayden Rogers (who is a personal friend) to hold on to Heath Shuler's seat which has been redistricted to be even more Republican.  Mike McIntyre has some difficulty in NC.  And so on.

      We have to keep losses of current Dem seats to no more than 5-6-7 to have any hope.

      We have to recapture some of seats we lostin 2010, even though in some cases they have been redistricted in ways that make them more difficult.

      It will only happen with coattails.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:31:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope hope hope hope Christie can pull it out, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pamelabrown, TheC, ER Doc

        but folks around here are sooo completely unaware of King's horrible national reputation and his non-Iowa politics views and statements.  Around here, if they "don't frighten the horses" people tend to return incumbents for a lifetime...

          However, she is running an EXCELLENT ad, now (unlike like the embarrassing, "seven layer salad" fiasco) that puts King gradually into focus, with all his horrific statements, and ends by saying, "This is Steve King. NOT Iowa."

          Let's hope! Going to give her some more money right now....

          Oh, here's the link to the ad I paraphrased:

          http://www.youtube.com/...

      •  Cicilline in RI is losing too (0+ / 0-)
    •  not this election (0+ / 0-)

      in the house politics is local which always favors the incumbent.  The only chances are the vacant seats.  Not going to happen in 2012

  •  Mike Bloomberg endorsement may have an impact (8+ / 0-)

    I know the guy is a blowhard but people in Wall Street take notice.  Wall Street got hit BIG by Sandy.  Already heard this morning that him coming out for Obama because of Obama's more environmental friendly policies was a game changer for some people in lower SW CT where 75% of us are STILL without power.  

    I wish Obama had campaigned more on the environment.  It would have made him look like Nostradamus after Sandy.  I wish it had been addressed in ANY of the debates.

    That said though, people understand that drill, drill, drill is not going to help us and that something is DEFINITELY WRONG with the environment.  Here in the northeast we're REELING from Sandy.  I think we're starting to wake up a bit and maybe Bloomberg siding with Obama will be the impetus, especially for people whose livelihood has been seriously hampered by the environment and the impact we're having on it.  It may not be a huge game changer but I think it could sway a few people the Dems way and a few people away from the GOP.  

    I KNOW that along the Jersey Shore there are going to be alot less GOP blowhards pushing for drilling for oil off our shores any time in the near future.  Especially when the symbol of the new shore is the skeletal remains of the boardwalk and roller coaster at Seaside Heights under water (it's too bad the water didn't wash the cast of the Jersey Shore away too).  I think Gov Chris Christie will find religion too if he already hasn't.  Gov Cuomo in NY seems to have found it and so has Mayor Bloomberg.  Gov Malloy in CT always had it when it came to the environment.

    I've said it before.  It's no coincidence that the storm was named Sandy.  That's short for Cassandra who was Trojan princess of great beauty who was blessed with the gift of foresight but cursed by the fact that nobody believed her.  I think the storm named after the mythological figure is warning us of our impending doom is we don't so something.  Hopefully we'll take better heed of her warnings than her people did in Troy after she warned them of the gift horse.  

    Hopefully enough people will change their vote from GOP climate deniers to politicians who actually believe there is something wrong and that we should do something about it.

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:17:32 AM PDT

    •  most ppl in Wall Street live in tri-state area (7+ / 0-)

      which is already going Dem.

      What the Bloomberg endorsement does is change the media frame a bit, which helps Obama and hurts Romney, but probably at the margins.

      Because he is highly visibly Jewish, did not endorse the last cycle, and is a businessman, it has some marginal influence

      -  in states where the Jewish vote matters, such as FL and to a lesser extend OH

      - among some businessmen

      - among some who look at Bloomberg as a centrist.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:33:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You are correct (0+ / 0-)

        However, some of the congressional districts where those wall street people live are currently being represented by tea baggers.  Nan Hayworth comes to mind.  I think the storm will also affect some people in the CT-04 and CT-05 races as well as the CT SEN.  Especially when you have a rich person running on tax cuts for the rich and cuts to the federal Gov't while the other guy wants to use some money to rebuild.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:40:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Hall would have taken back that seat (0+ / 0-)

          but because of his parents' health decided not to run.

          That is one we must pick up to have any chance of taking back the House.

          Maffei has to win - which I think will happen.

          And Hochul has to hang on.

          I am getting bombarded by request for money for Slaughter.  If Louise were to lose her seat, that would be very bad.

          Yeah, I know that is very much upstate.

          Downstate some of those who barely survived last time seem to be in better shape this cycle.

          "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

          by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:45:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  A few others (0+ / 0-)

            If the Dems are to have any shot they also have to flip NY-24 Buerkle and NY-19 Gibson while holding NY-1 Bishop and NY-21 Owens.  

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:03:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  The Bloomberg endorsement helps in Florida (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwjjd

      Not anywhere else.

      Lot of ex-pat New Yorkers there.

  •  Rec'd. For Hope! eom (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwjjd

    Yeah, that's right, vote for Taft, you dirty girl.

    by DeminWisconsin on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:17:34 AM PDT

  •  The movement of RAS is important... (0+ / 0-)

    he wants to be 'more right' than 'more wrong' after election day so no doubt the 2 pt surge in Obama's direction is part of his calculations.
    If so (big if, of course), Obama by 3-4 pts is totally possible in Pop Vote

    Yeah, that's right, vote for Taft, you dirty girl.

    by DeminWisconsin on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:19:03 AM PDT

  •  Hoping you're on target (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zinger99

    Sure glad I don't get to see mornings on MSNBC that much.  Here's what I learned so far today:
    !)  Ohio could go either way (Columbus Dispatch writer)--how profound
    2)  GOP poised to pick up at least 5 seats in House--so not matter if Obama wins--gridlock for 4 more years
    3)  Polling is an ART not a Science (Jonathan Alter)

    So glad I looked in

    •  umm - the H prediction from Repub operative (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ER Doc

      so take that into consideration

      talking with some longtime Democratic insiders last night their consensus was Dems picking up 7-9 net House seats.  But I do not think they were aware of all the recent trends in state and national polls.  They also did not think Obama would win by more than 2%, and from what I am seeing I would really think that might be more like his floor than his ceiling in terms of margin.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:39:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks Ken nt (0+ / 0-)

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:25:02 AM PDT

  •  I'll go out on a limb (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    and predict Heidi Heitkamp will win in ND, defeating Rep. Rick Berg for Senate.  It's close, but Heidi is up 50-48 in a new independent poll.  She is really making an all out push for this state.  That could keep Kent Conrad's seat Dem.  Just a thought.

  •  There is no Doubt in my mind Obama wins Ohio (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pamelabrown, GeorgeXVIII

    Trust me. Brown also.

    . . . if not there should be an investigation. I've had enough personal antecdotes with Southern Ohio (another state) citizens who are 60 never voted for a D, and simply will not vote for a Republican again (thanks to Kasich and Congress).

  •  Jeb Bush at a Romney Event Was Talking Downticket (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    willynel, catwho, teacherken, annan

    yesterday, which means they're increasingly aware they're not taking the WH.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:30:04 AM PDT

    •  let's do another comparison of surrogates (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester, ER Doc

      Jeb and Marco  versus the Big Dog

      in FL that might be a wash, which would not help Romney.  Outside of FL neither Repub helps Romney.

      I do hope Bill makes the Medicare argument in FL today.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:41:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm not going to predict until PPP releases all of (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ClevelandAttorney, mconvente, wwjjd

    their final polls. I was looking over their final 2008 polls... CHRIST, were they ever on the money!

  •  I don't know what you people are (0+ / 0-)

    smoking...but I just want 270...anything else is a bonus...

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

    by tuma on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:35:01 AM PDT

  •  I'll see your 347 and raise you Arizona... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chitown Kev

    President Obama will make it close but will ultimately lose Indiana and the 2nd CD in Nebraska. His turnout machine in Nebraska's 2nd will help Kerrey a bit. And he'll win Arizona. Those people need a way to strike back and Brewer and this is a good announcement that her days as governor are numbered.

    As for the Senate, it'll be close in Missouri and Indiana but I think we pull both of those seats out of the fire. Arizona will go our way at a slightly larger margin than Indiana (I don't believe that 11 point poll from today). Montana and North Dakota worry me a bit because I don't think we can have it all our way election night but other than that I think we're in pretty good shape all over the map, which is just astounding considering where we were a few months ago. Nebraska will be close but I don't think Kerrey has enough time to make up even the small margin that polls are seeing now. I'd love to think Hagel's endorsement still means something and I hope to be pleasantly shocked if Kerrey pulls it out.

    As for the House, I think we get 20 seats, just short of the minimum needed for control, but things are still shaping up and I'm optimistic.

    So, for all those people saying that your predictions were optimistic, mine will be sunshiny. 2012 will be a nice counterpoint to the 2010 elections.

    The most dangerous... programs, from a movement conservative's point of view, are the ones that work the best and thereby legitimize the welfare state. Krugman

    by BasharH on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:35:06 AM PDT

    •  national margin would have to be 5-6% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BasharH

      for us to pick up AZ

      UNLESS there is a partial white backlash against Arpaio that carries over to the Presidential.

      It is also worth noting the recent legal troubles of my high school classmate, Republican Attorney General Tom Horne.  Who know, might that influence a few votes?

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:46:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Arizona could well be the surprise of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BasharH

      Election Night.

      Electoral conditions now favor the kind of national mo' that Obama would have to have if he were to win AZ.

      I think Obama loses AZ by a couple of points BUT AZ is close enough that the gOP see the writing on the wall not simply for AZ but for TX.

  •  I think CO is good, but FL and NC not so much (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, IM, hester

    FL is a possibility, but not NC. That's pretty much in the tank for Willard.

    THis won't matter, mind you, because if Ohio goes blue (which is looking more likely), and Wisconsin stays where it is, then Obama has enough.

  •  Obama 332 - Romney 206 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Arnie, IM

    Popular vote:  Obama wins between 50-48 to 51-47.

    I'm just going by where the polls are and who has momentum in each state.  I think Obama has clearly made up ground in FL and has momentum.  We might fall short in NC because of the hurricane.

    Obama is probably going to get a blue state surge on election day which will push the popular vote margin up to around 4 points.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:40:37 AM PDT

  •  On this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwjjd
    But for Romney, there was this -  there were many who did not like him, but if they thought he could win, they would vote for him - because they hate Obama?  Whatever the reason, if they come to believe that Romney cannot win, they may stay home, which has impact not only in the electoral college, but also in some close House and Senate races.
    I think that is one reason we're seeing all these new polls. I believe that the superpacs are funneling money into new polling operations so that they can cloud the picture enough to keep republicans interested and going to the polls and its not hard to look at all the various poll trackers and determine specifically what number is needed in order to affect the high level numbers.

    The poll trackers will need to evaluate this next time and either select a baseline set of polls and no others or weight them by the time they have been conducting polls.

    Fox News, The triumph of stupidity over reason.

    by laughingriver on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:46:37 AM PDT

  •  I think you are a little optimistic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pamelabrown

    But not enough to really complain about.

    Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

    by blue aardvark on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:52:10 AM PDT

  •  332-206 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    Romney barely wins North Carolina...in fact, better to describe it as a tie but Romney will get a few thousand more votes.

    On the Cuban/Latino vote in Florida, there were two surveys done by the same polling outfit. The older one showed a 48-40 lead for Romney amon Cubans and the newer one shows the President with a one point lead among Cubans (basically a statistical dead heat).

    I wonder what is the usual percentage of the Cuban vote in Florida that the Republican nominee gets because it seems as if for a Democrat, Obama is performing better than he should among Cubans. (I tend to think that the O50 R49 number among Cubans is an outlier.)

    •  not Cuban, but Latino (0+ / 0-)

      and at this point a MINORITY of Latino voters in FL are of Cuban heritage, and further there are some generational splits in the Cuban-American community

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:04:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  house results (0+ / 0-)

    they will be the event of the night.

    There may be a couple of surprises on the senate and the total vote for the president, but what happens to the house is a difficult one to predict.

    It will also have the most impact.

    "The only person sure of himself is the man who wishes to leave things as they are, and he dreams of an impossibility" -George M. Wrong.

    by statsone on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:58:17 AM PDT

    •  Hoping Fitzpatrick will lose in Bucks County, Pa. (0+ / 0-)

      Need a big turnout, possible because of President, Senate, and ag races.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 12:24:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  President Obama thinks he is going to win (0+ / 0-)

    according to numbers, but still need to GOTV!

  •  Death Stench (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jlukes, annan, Chitown Kev, Berkeley Fred

    I get the increasing feeling that Romney's campaign is now emitting a definite death stench. I think the turning point came with Sandy and Gov. Christie's appreciative and overwhelmingly positive comments clearly rooted in practicality. Bloomberg's endorsement was icing on the cake.

    I think the impact of Christie's comments can't be understated. The enormous devastation in his state makes it obvious that a strong federal government involvement is the only way it will recover. At a time like this it's clear that it's time to get serious and realize who the adult in the room is.

    "crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government" -Thomas Jefferson

    by Phil In Denver on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:00:57 AM PDT

  •  O 319 - R 219 (0+ / 0-)

    Romney taking VA and NC.  

    BagNewsNotes: Visual Politics, Media Image Analysis

    by ksh01 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:01:17 AM PDT

  •  that's too good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lina

    i wish it was true but i really doubt it.

    -You want to change the system, run for office.

    by Deep Texan on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:02:50 AM PDT

  •  332-206, 56 Senate (0+ / 0-)

    I predict almost an identical electoral map, with a narrow miss in North Carolina. I think there is a possibility we could take North Carolina and Arizona, moving it to 358-180.  In the Senate, I don't think we pick up Nebraska, and between North Dakota, Nevada, Montana, and Arizona, probably a clean sweep is too much to ask.  I guess we lose NE, narrowly holding ND and MT, and pick up ME, MA, IN, and AZ, losing out on NV. A number of these races can go either way, so anything between 53-57 looks reasonable.  For the House, I haven't got a clue.

  •  NC is cherry picking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lonely Liberal in PA

    Oh, I'd love to see NC go blue and prove Nate Silver wrong.  And i also have that feeling he really could win NC.  But is that the misguided feeling that many republicans have that they are going to win Ohio?  I think if we are going to call out Chris Cizzilla or whatever his name is spelled for calling Ohio a toss-up then there has to be some consistency here.

    I will jump for joy if that is the one state that Nate Silver gets wrong!

  •  Obama will win but it will be close (0+ / 0-)

    and then no one will care because there are only winners and losers with no prize for second place.

  •  The real question is whether (0+ / 0-)

    the Republic Party will turn further right with an election loss, or will try to moderate their forced birth, legitimate rape, get rid of FEMA and the other t-party stuff. I think think they will continue to turn farther right, because they seem only to be able to ratchet in one direction.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:15:49 AM PDT

  •  Toby! (0+ / 0-)

    Invoking the wrath of whatever from high atop the thing! Go outside, turn around three times and spit. (And yes, I'm being snarky once again but you can never be too careful what with nature's wrath rearing its head.)

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:25:58 AM PDT

  •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

    I feel so much better now.

    Just the other day, I had a crazy dream that we were going to carry Alabama, Mississippi and Utah.

    Then I woke up.

    "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

    by jkay on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:28:07 AM PDT

  •  I've got Obama 332-206 (0+ / 0-)

    Obama takes CO, FL and VA but Romney taking NC.  (Though I am willing to change that based on late polling)

    Senate is 56-44 including the independents.  I'm having a hard time seeing Kerrey performing a miracle in Nebraska despite the late movement there.

    I haven't gamed out the House yet but you numbers make sense.  I agree with you about the Gang of Four all losing though King is probably most likely to squeak out a victory.

  •  Good analysis Ken (0+ / 0-)

    I don't agree that Obama will get NC, unless there's a late surge, and FL and CO are going to be extremely close but winnable.  But Obama will win, because OH is his and Romney has to run the table in all of the other swing states to pull it out-- but he won't.

    The Senate races are really intriguing-- I think NE and ND are too close to call, and IN will be close too, but I think Joe Donnelly will win there.    

    THIS JUST IN: Burger King announces a new sandwich: THE JOSH MANDEL PANTS ON FIRE WHOPPER! Two patties of BS covered in steak sauce, young cheese and no vegetables. No substance there, just bite!

    by Kurt from CMH on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:30:55 AM PDT

    •  PPP just out has CO 50-46 Obama (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pamelabrown, Kurt from CMH

      now, they did not offer Johnson as an alternative, so it could be either closer or wider than that

      but this confirms other recent polling in CO that shows Obama ahead

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:42:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well done and thanks, Ken (0+ / 0-)

    Sadly I think you're fantasizing about Tester and Kerry, but 56-44 still is quite comforting.  On the other hand, I think (hope) you're overly pessimistic about the House, so I, too, enjoy a bit of fantasy.  Ain't it a sad commentary when such are our fantasies?!

    What I don't understand is why the efforts of Carmona and Grijalva along with the underepresentation of the Latino vote won't deliver Arizona (leaving Brewer bruised and bleeding wandering among her corpses in the desert).

    •  What I see (0+ / 0-)

      granted this is in Missoula- I still have yet to see a single Romney sign anywhere. I've been looking. I've seen the usual businesses with their shitshows of Republican signs, but not a single Romney sign.

      The Republicans are not enthusiastic here. Not like they got in the past. You see perfunctory displays here and there, but nothing like the past.

      My hunch is that Tester-Rehberg won't be settled til the next morning, but that Tester will ultimately prevail.

      Small varmints, if you will.

      by aztecraingod on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:42:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen now has Tester up 1 (0+ / 0-)

      still think I am fantasizing?

      Kerry is the only one I see as a stretch, because I have as yet no data showing him ahead or indicating he will be ahead.  That one is more a gut feeling

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:43:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  it will be close (0+ / 0-)

    This will come down to turnout but Obama should win the electoral college. Not sure about the popular vote, Obama could even lose it.
    I doubt he breaks 300 Ev but who cares as long as he gets 270. The senate is safe but Kerry will lose, Tester may lose but as long as we have the senate even Romney cannot undo what Obama has accomplished.

    •  most of those putting all polling together (0+ / 0-)

      have Obama over 300.

      If done state by state the most common number is 303 - missing FL & NC.

      And some of that does not include the most recent polls, where earlier versions of some polls that had Obama down 1-5 points say in FL now have him even or ahead.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:44:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  But but... (0+ / 0-)

    ...but NPR was talking about how it's all going to be a tie with nightmare scenarios!! Mara Liasson was sure of it this morning...

    Of course they'd love it since it's boffo ratings. But it ain't gonna be no tie.

    I'm giving O: 330 ish e-votes with 228 or so for Mitt.

    Twitter: @michaelhag

    by MichaelPH on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:38:50 AM PDT

  •  exactly the same as my prediction (0+ / 0-)

    347 EVs & 51%

    I hope we're right!

  •  320 and 54 senators (0+ / 0-)

    well, thisis the opposite of some fanciful repub work where every break goes their way

    This assumes everything breaks our way, which it just won't, things like that don't happen.

    But win the popular, probably, 54 Senate, absolutely, maybe 56, and 320 tops, will lose florida and NC and win most else

    Sageman, the 60 senator guy

    by sageman on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:46:11 AM PDT

  •  I think your predictions are a little optimistic (0+ / 0-)

    I say:

    President
    O 323 - R 215
    O narrowly loses NC, CO

    Senate +1 D
    Democrats flip 3 -- MA, ME, IN
    Republicans flip 2 -- NE, ND

    House
    +10 D

  •  Obama 49 - Romney 47 (0+ / 0-)

    294 EVs (loses CO narrowly)
    55 Senators
    198 House Dems

    Oh, the hills are groaning with excess, like a table ceaselessly being set.

    by faithfull on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:16:26 AM PDT

  •  Best Regards Ken -Keep carrying the torch! (0+ / 0-)

    Thank you for all you do, your spirit, your wisdom, and your willingness to "hit the streets"  Age and some illness alas has prevented me from coming to Va. again this year and I was looking forward to seeing you again personally.  I'll do what I can here on an OFA phone bank and at least run up the popular vote here in this red state.  All the best my friend! Your SC friend. John

    Maybe it is music that will save the world - Pablo Casals

    by Palmetto Progressive on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:44:17 AM PDT

  •  The real issue is (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Desert Rose, The Nose

    how do a pair of flagrant lying sociopaths get 47% of the vote in this Country?

    "To recognize error, to cut losses, to alter course, is the most repugnant option in government." Historian Barbara Tuchman

    by Publius2008 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:46:42 AM PDT

  •  I am really interested to see how narrowly Obama (0+ / 0-)

    will lose some of the states he is predicted to.  Especially MO and AZ.  I hope he wins them all but if not I want see if and how far there is a trend toward.

  •  Not feeling super about NC, but other than that, (0+ / 0-)

    feelin' fine!

    vigilant "Dear Religion, this week I safely dropped a man from space while you shot a child in the head for wanting to go to school. Yours, Science."

    by GoGoGoEverton on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:15:18 AM PDT

  •  It would be hysterical... (0+ / 0-)

    if your prediction is right. After four years on the roller coaster and all the lies and vitriol, if the only difference between 2008 and 2012 turned out to be Indiana, that would be priceless.

    I'll say President Obama 50.5-48.5, with 303 electoral votes.

    I'd say 332 (Florida) if the state had a Democratic governor.

    Perhaps I've read too many Elmore Leonard and Carl Hiaasen novels, but I think there's an overwhelming amount of corruption in Florida, and without a Democratic governer at the controls, I fear Gov. Scott and his minions will find a way to "win" the state.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:39:53 AM PDT

  •  I think grumpy white men (0+ / 0-)

    Will be affected by the endorsement of Bloomberg and the gratitude of Chris Christie.  

    I think these two endorsements put a pin in their balloons of hatred and some of the hot air will disperse, so that  either they switch or they won't go to the polls.

    www.tapestryofbronze.com

    by chloris creator on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:40:03 AM PDT

  •  It'll be no more than 303 for Obama (0+ / 0-)

    He'll get CO and VA, but not FLA or NC.

    Tester will win, as will Donnelly and Warren.

    I'm not as optimistic about McKaskill and Carmona. It's too bad that Akin's gaffes didn't occur a month later in the campaign—he's had time to make up most of the damage. Rural Missouri might as well be South Carolina or Arkansas.

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