There is a wonderful new service at the Electoral Vote web site. Polling margins are available there with 100% of Rasmussen-pollution washed away.
Here's what Mitt "One Mighty and Strong" Romney-- matched with the various American Crossroads sludge ads -- is doing for coat tails.
Electoral Vote's "No Ras" page maps the 2012 Senate Races:
-- Dems/Indies lead to take seats AZ, IN, MA, ME.
-- GOPers lead by 3% to take a seat in NE. NV is a bare 1% GOPer edge.
-- ND is a toss at 48%:48%.
A lot of this is very, very close: GOTV decisive !!
Win everything with a Dem edge and this shows a 55-seat Senate majority. Win ND on top of it and that's a 57-seat majority. Overturn the Nevada 1% edge and it's a 58-seat majority.
Win all of the above, get a small miracle in NE, and that goes to 58 seats.
Yeah, in the "No Ras" map of America, there's a chance for 58 seats. Get up killer GOTV efforts in all the 1% races, plus one helluva prayer meeting for Nebraska. There's an opening, here and now, for Grand Tactics, as laid out for other wars by Clausewitz:
-- Ignore Rasmussen propaganda. He might as well be RNC or Murdoch.Below le chignon d'orange for the "No Ras" look at America....
-- Go all out in MT, AZ, IN, ND, NV, and especially in WI.
-- Same for NE plus knowing we need help.
-- GOTV that achieves strong Democratic turnout puts every single one of these races within range.
Here's the "No Ras" numbers for the close senate races:
Missouri: McCaskill/Todd -- 46%/42%
Arizona: Carmona/Flake -- 45%/42%
Virginia: Kaine/Allen -- 48%/45%
Wisconsin: Baldwin/Thompson -- 48%/46%
Indiana: Donnelly/Mourdock -- 47%/46%
Montana: Tester/Rehberg -- 48%/47%
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North Dakota: Heitkamp/Berg -- 48%/48%
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Nevada: Berkley/Heller -- 45%/46%
Nebraska: Kerrey/Fischer -- 47%/50%
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-- Nebraska, 47%/50%. Seeing Bob Kerrey within reach should not be a surprise. He has been governor and senator for Nebraska. This is a race where the key is "winning ugly" with mailers that connect the history-less Deb Fischer, a rancher, with wing nuts and Romney.
(Deb Fischer and Rick Berg in North Dakota have no public history to speak of. Nothing out there on the major issues of the day for America. Planned invisibility. O.K., then we can quote their political friends, their "surrogates." Quote the legislative history debates for bills they voted for. There's always Tea Party / John Birch Society ravings that can be quoted.)
-- Nevada got tight fast, 45%/46%. Shelley Berkley got a huge boost when Bill Clinton came to town -- the anticipated voter participation rate for Democrats went up more than 5% overnight.
Dean Heller couldn't resist going all Tea Party during the primary. His campaign is "The Fight to Reclaim America." That's from the Kenyanusurper, which might not play out all that well in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy coverage. Heller's a careerist axxhole.
-- North Dakota, 48%/48%, is the story of Heidi Heitkamp. Smart, former Attorney General, doctor's wife, mom, way-way prettier than Palin.
Rick Berg is a Mini-Me, less-rich version of Romney. Top 10 Richest guys in ND. Doesn't answer questions. Doesn't impress. Took to bad-mouthing Heitkamp, which cost him a double-digit lead from the summer. He has no idea what to do against Heitkamp. The more the American Crossroads rovians run their scumball ads, the better for Heidi.
-- Montana, 48%/47%, looks a lot like North Dakota, except that Jon Tester has a successful one-term incumbency going for him. And nobody but Obama's got Heidi's energy. The more the American Crossroads rovians run their scumball ads, the better for Jon.
-- Indiana, 47%/46%. Donnelly/Mourdock. That might not be so close. Electoral-Votes has not been updated for today's polls:
9:42AM EDT November 2. 2012 - A new Indiana poll shows Democrat Joe Donnelly has a double-digit lead over Republican Richard Mourdock in their Senate race, and is aided by the fallout from his rival's comments about rape and abortion.
Donnelly, a congressman since 2007, leads Mourdock 47% to 36% among likely Hoosier voters, according to the Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll released Friday. Libertarian Andrew Horning is at 6% in the poll.
-- U.S.A. Today, November 2nd
-- Wisconsin, 48%/46%. Baldwin/Thompson. Thompson sounds to be running on an empty tank. But the recall election left in place a strong GOTV operation for the GOPers. There's a question how enthusiastic the ordinary Democrats are for Tammy Baldwin. This is 100% a GOTV problem.
Winning Nebraska, Nevada, and North Dakota while losing Wisconsin shouldn't surprise anyone. In terms of organizational enthusiasm, Wisconsin is the weak link.
Compare/contrast Heidi Hietkamp with Tammy Baldwin. Tell you all you want to know. Back ten years ago, Tammy flashed a big smile at her events, sported a nifty hairdo with bangs, and spoke with an entertaining series of references to local problems. Now, in 2012, she needs a good weekend of that to drive GOTV.
-- Arizona, Virginia and Missouri feature strong Democratic candidates who are inflicting solid beatings to the likes of Todd Akin, George Allen and Jeff Flake.
Recent local polls show them winning by even larger margins. Attack ads from the righties are backfiring everywhere.
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Different from summaries that include Rasmussen ??? You betcha.
Different tactics ??? Different priorities?
Win the 1%ers, make sure to haul Tammy across the line, trust in Heidi, and go for a Bob Kerrey Act of God -- that's 58 seats.First action with 58-seats has to be forcing through a rules change reducing the Cloture Rule to 55-votes. Otherwise democracy is hobbled, more or less endlessly.
(Thank you, Liars !! We couldn't have gotten close to this possibility without Mitt Romney and Karl Rove.)
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Innumeracy struck. Thought that was 60 seats. not 58.