Skip to main content

There's seems to be even more focus on early voting totals, with the developing meme that Romney seems to be benefiting disproportionately.  While this may be true in the country as a whole, the data I'm looking at from five of the key swing states seems to be telling a different story:  that the Obama troops are getting out the vote

Here are my updated calculations on the state of early voting in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina, Please check my prior diary ( for the approach I'm using to calculate these values, but the bottom line is that I'm applying the current percentages of support by party from the most recent five polls in each of these swing states to the early voting totals as captured in the US Elections Project site.  

The interesting part of this is that allows me to estimate how well Obama needs to perform on election day in order to win the state.  Below are the current values:

CO:  52.6-47.4% Obama; 47.1% needed by Obama on Election Day
FL:  51.4-48.6% Obama; 49.3% needed by Obama on Election Day
IA:  57.3-42.7% Obama; 46.2% needed by Obama on Election Day
NV:  55-45% Obama; 44% needed by Obama on Election Day
NC:  55.1-44.9% Obama; 45.5% needed by Obama on Election Day


1)  CO:  Boy, do Coloradans like to vote early:  60.4% of the 2008 total already; one poll I read today indicated that they expect only 18% to vote on Election day, with those voters favoring Romney 47-42.  But 18% won't cut it, if 82% are generating a five point lead for Obama.
2)  FL:  Clearly this is going to be very close, but early voters seem to be holding their own
3)  IA/NV:  Early voting there seems to have either tailed off - or the updating of the results has slowed; NV has no new reporting today, but Obama is in extremely good shape there.
4)  NC:  More than half of all the votes cast in 2008 have already been cast in NC and the numbers for Obama continue to look good; they'll need to since people who haven't voted yet are disproportionately Romney voters.

Finally, though I can't really do these same calculations for VA and OH because of the lack of information about the party affiliation of early voters, using an average of the polls reporting on OH early voting (which has been surprisingly consistent (61-34 for Obama) points to a rough required vote of 47% for Obama on Election Day.  That said, reporting from Ohio seems quite sketchy and slow right now.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site