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NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: FL: Obama 49%, Romney 47%; OH: Obama 51%, Romney 45%
@mmurraypolitics via Twitter for BlackBerry®

Also in the poll, Obama gets strong marks for his handling of Hurricane Sandy, with 7 in 10 approving his job there in both states
@mmurraypolitics via Twitter for BlackBerry®

WaPo editorial:

THROUGH ALL THE flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate.

How else to explain his refusal to disclose essential information? Defying recent bipartisan tradition, he failed to release the names of his bundlers — the high rollers who collected hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations. He never provided sufficient tax returns to show voters how he became rich...

Within limits, all candidates say and do what they have to say and do to win. Mr. Obama also has dodged serious interviews and news conferences. He has offered few specifics for a second-term agenda. He, too, aired commercials that distorted his opponent’s statements.

But Mr. Obama has a record; voters know his priorities. His budget plan is inadequate, but it wouldn’t make things worse.

Mr. Romney, by contrast, seems to be betting that voters have no memories, poor arithmetic skills and a general inability to look behind the curtain. We hope the results Tuesday prove him wrong.

Charles M Blow:  
Truth and lies. Evidence continues to emerge that Romney is one of the most dishonest, duplicitous candidates to ever seek the presidency.
Roger Simon:
Obama should have been destroyed by now. That was the plan.
He was going to be “Swift Boated” in this election, just like John Kerry was in 2004...

But Benghazi has proven to be not dynamite, but a firecracker. The October surprise has not turned into a bombshell. Instead, it has bombed.


+1 on ABC's discussion of "indies"  2012 independents are more apt to lean toward GOP than in ABC/Post polls in 2008 http://t.co/...
@MysteryPollster via Tweetbot for Mac

Marc Coddington on

Why political journalists can’t stand Nate Silver: The limits of journalistic knowledge

The other objection political journalists/pundits have to Silver’s process is evident here, too. They don’t just have a problem with how he knows what he knows, but with how he states it, too. Essentially, they are mistaking specificity for certainty. To them, the specificity of Silver’s projections smack of arrogance because, again, their ways of knowing are incapable of producing that kind of specificity. It has to be an overstatement.

In actuality, of course, Silver’s specificity isn’t arrogance at all — it’s the natural product of a scientific, statistical way of producing knowledge. Statistical analyses produce specific numbers by their very nature. That doesn’t mean they’re certain: In fact, the epistemology has long been far more tentative in reaching conclusions than the epistemology of journalism. As many people have noted over the past few days, a probability is not a prediction. Silver himself has repeatedly called for less certainty in political analysis, not more. But that split between specificity and certainty is a foreign concept to the journalistic epistemology.


! RT @Linda_McMahon: While Linda will be an indep. voice for CT, Chris Murphy was proudly endorsed by the Communist Party.
@seungminkim via TweetDeck

Margaret Sullivan:
Nate Silver, author of the FiveThirtyEight blog on NYTimes.com, may be under attack from some people, as I noted in a post on Thursday, but he also has many defenders.

Hundreds of them wrote to me in e-mails, in Twitter messages and in comments on the blog to say that they vehemently disagreed with my criticism of Mr. Silver’s offer of a wager to a talk show host on the outcome of the presidential election.

Some questioned my intelligence, sanity or sense of fun. Some said that by criticizing the wager offer, I encouraged the unfair critics of his overall methods.

Others questioned the logic of my specific complaint. I’ll address the latter here, then turn over the floor to David Leonhardt, The Times’s Washington bureau chief.

Nate Silver:
What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:
Obama’s ahead in Ohio.
A somewhat-more-complicated version:
Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.
The argument that Mr. Obama isn’t the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama.
Reuters:
U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann, known for controversial comments during her Republican presidential nomination bid, faces a tough congressional election challenge on Tuesday in a Minnesota district that should be friendly to conservatives.

The race in the sprawling Minnesota 6th Congressional District has been the nation's most expensive in both money raised and spent by Bachmann and Democratic challenger Jim Graves, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The two candidates have raised a total of $22.7 million and spent $20.8, the center reported.


Talked to a couple GOP consultants today who mentioned Michele Bachmann might lose: http://t.co/...
@JoshuaGreen via web

David Rothschild:
In the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, the pivotal state of Ohio showed slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. But, when asked who they expect to win Ohio, the same respondents predicted Obama would win their state. Justin Wolfers and I have conducted an exhaustive research project on the power of expectation polling, and the evidence is overwhelming: when the intention (i.e., support) and expectation of respondents in a poll point in opposite directions, the expectation is correct over 75 percent of the time.
Lynn Vavrek:
Looked at in this light, the undecided actually exemplify a type of political flexibility we often claim to admire, but often denigrate in practice. A healthy portion of undecided voters seem to understand when they are out of step with their party and this sometimes drives them to the opposing candidate. They may not be as interested in news or politics as you are, but they consider their preferences relative to party positions when making up their minds. Adjust those caricatures.

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Comment Preferences

  •  this is 1980 and O is Reagan - breaking for O (29+ / 0-)

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:34:29 AM PDT

  •  Bachmann might lose? (26+ / 0-)

    now there's some real good news. heh heh.

    Re-elect Barack Obama and elect Elizabeth Warren "Mitt Romney...utterly devoid of charm and mildly offensive."

    by al23 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:38:47 AM PDT

  •  What are the Rand poll results? (0+ / 0-)

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:40:58 AM PDT

  •  Jim Graves (7+ / 0-)

    I so want to see :

    Congressman Elect Jim Graves come this time Wednesday !

  •  It amazes me that people can be so critical (13+ / 0-)

    of Nate and so certain of bookmakers odds on sporting events. It's the same animal wearing a different skin. Because a team is favored by 21 points doesn't guarantee a win but it does mean that that there is one favorite and one underdog. Unless something calamitous happens, the favorite almost always wins and people are betting the spread.

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:43:55 AM PDT

  •  Attacking the messenger (18+ / 0-)

    has been the name of the game of late. Nate Silver being the foremost of messengers of reality to the GOP.

    Frankly, I think many pundits need to be mocked relentlessly as soon as the election is over. They have failed on a basic level to examine policy differences and the implications of those differences.

    The Spice must Flow!

    by Texdude50 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:44:08 AM PDT

  •  McMahon an indie? Hah! (8+ / 0-)

    She'll be Mitch McConnell's BFF and a reliable corporate tool. There is no such thing as an independant Republican. It's like a jackalope or clean coal.

    And Murphy a communist? Aren't they illegal in CT or at least exceedingly rare, like white after Labor Day or affordable housing in Greenwich?

    Seriously, the stupid, it's congenital with these teahadists.

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:47:05 AM PDT

  •  A simpler answer for Vavrek, "They are stupid!" (6+ / 0-)

    I have a simpler summary of the undecided voter for Vavrek.

    "If someone is still undecided at this point of this election, then they haven't been paying attention to the candidates."

    Or in other words, "They are incredibly stupid!"

    To anyone that has been watching the debates, listening and fact checking the candidates then the decision should be quite easy. If you're a Republican and you can swallow the bile coming out of Romney. Or at least stand it long enough to vote for him then go right ahead. It's your funeral. But I would put it that any voter, no matter their party, that has actually followed this election with an open mind couldn't possibly vote for Romney in good conscience.

    Romney has proven without a doubt that he is a stereotypical snake oil salesman of the worst caliber. He hasn't spoken campaign promises, but rather flat out lied to the people. How can you elect someone that you can't trust to speak honestly even at the diminished level of a common politician? To put someone with such low standards in a position of that much power is simply stupidity.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:48:08 AM PDT

    •  see, the data says the opposite (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueMajority, Vicky

      think of them (one example, not all of them) as strongly pro-life Democrats or pro-choice Republicans. Really hard to know what to do for them.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:53:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I see what you mean (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes

        I feel the pain from their convictions. But they need to take a more pragmatic look on their choices. Before they can vote on whether someone fits their ethical mold the candidate at least must meet the minimum requirements for the job.

        It's like trying to eat healthy when there is no choice available as the grocery store shelves are almost barren due to a disaster. Do you just starve because you can't make a choice? You have to go back to basics and be strict on your pols when you have a choice available. Right now they don't. At least not one I would call a choice.

        Mitt just can't be trusted to do what's right by anyone with his track record. Give him enough money and he can be bought.

        "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

        by Wynter on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:14:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  PS truly conflicted may stay home n/t (2+ / 0-)

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:59:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Undecided = they don't care (3+ / 0-)

      who wins.  They just want those political ads to stop.

    •  i have a different take on undecideds (3+ / 0-)

      they have some personal reason they don't like President Obama: they are personally out of a job, or have some other direct need they expected the government to meet and are disappointed, or they belong to a forced-birth religious group, or they make enough money to worry about Obama's tax policy (or they erroneously think they do).  Not to mention the folks who just hate gays, browns and blacks.  So they have some specific reason they don't like Obama.  But they also don't like Rmoney, or feel uneasy about some aspect of R social policy toward women or the elderly.

      I don't assume that they can't tell the difference between the candidates.  That WOULD be unremittingly stupid.  

      Every undecided voter I know is fully aware that this is an important election.  But they feel very strongly about their political purity on certain issues and are struggling with whether they should put their past purity aside in casting this vote.

      So they bounce from one candidate to the other.  One day Rmoney because of R abortion policy, the next day Obama because of R attitudes toward women.  One day Rmoney because they have always voted R, the next day Obama because they were insulted by Rmoney's comments about the 47%.  One day Jill Stein because the Senate didn't close Guantanamo, the next day Obama because they fear theocratic power if Rmoney wins.

      And even the ones that ARE stupid--who want to vote for Rmoney because they believe his lies--are struggling because their gut accurately tells them not to trust Rmoney and they can't get excited about him.

      that's my take on anyone who is undecided with three days to go

      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
      THREE days to go! DO SOMETHING NOW to bring this home for the blue team!!!

      by TrueBlueMajority on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:08:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That accurately describes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueMajority

        an undecided voter in my family.

        She's strongly pro-choice, but leans more conservative on economic matters. Plus, she's out of work. So, yeah, convincing her to take a shot on someone else in terms of the economy isn't tough.

        So, I think at one point she was trying to convince herself that the Romney who was governor here in MA was the real Romney, and he wouldn't do anything to jeopardize choice. And I think she was doing well convincing herself on that--until she got a gander at Paul Ryan's record.

        So, yeah, last time I talked to her (last week) she was still undecided.

        She is very happily going to vote for Scott Brown, by the way. Some voters get way too excited when any politician does anything "independenty" because voting for them lets the voter believe they're overcoming that evil, gridlock-inducing, two-party system. "I like Scott Brown! He voted against his party once!" A lot of "moderate" voters really get unbelievably jazzed over that shit.

        "Maybe: it's a vicious little word that could slay me"--Sara Bareilles

        by ChurchofBruce on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:35:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  respectfully, try these arguments with her, CoB (0+ / 0-)

          esp if she is pro-choice.

          First of all, Brown only started making "bipartisan" votes after he saw that he was getting a serious D challenger.  R party leadership wants him to hold the seat, so they "allowed" him to cast a few maverick votes specifically to hoodwink people like her.

          None of his so-called bipartisan votes affected the outcome of legislation.  There is not one time he went against the R party to give the Dems a victory we needed.  But once he gets a full six year term on his own, then R party leadership will clamp down on heir famous lockstep party discipline and make him vote the way they want, especially if they hold a 51-49 margin in the Senate.

          The Brown/Warren race could be the margin of victory for either party.  If Brown is the 51st vote, he will definitely vote for Mitch McConnell for majority leader.  He is not so bipartisan as to let the Ds have control of the Senate!  He is NEVER bipartisan when it counts, or when it would mean a victory for Dems and a loss for Rs.  He only votes with Dems when it will not make a difference to the outcome.

          Rs controlling the Senate is BAD NEWS for everyone but esp for women since the Senate Judiciary Committee controls SCt appointments.  We are one vote away from overturning Roe and going backward on birth control availability as well.

          Even if Rmoney is that rare bird, a pro-choice Mormon, he has not shown any ability to stand up to RWNJs in his party, who will pressure him to appoint another Scalia or Alito or Thomas.  The RWNJs made him take Ryan (and the Ryan RWNJ budget) for his running mate, so they know how to get what they want from him.  They want the overturn of Roe and the Santorum wing of the party wants to outlaw most forms of birth control.  If Rs control the Senate the Judiciary Committee can BLOCK any nominee they do not approve of until he gives them the one they want.

          as for Rmoney, he LIED when he was in Massachusetts.  The proof is that as soon as he started running for President, he disrespected everything about Massachusetts and everything he did in Massachusetts at every opportunity.  True, Dems in the state legislature worked with him, but that is no credit to him, it is a credit to Democrats who would rather do the right thing than stand on partisanship at the state level.  Whereas Republicons in Congress have voted against their own plans and proposals

          As for Rmoney being a businessman whom she thinks could be better on the economy, creating jobs was not what he did at Bain.  That wasn't the business he was in.  He was in the business of taking over companies for his own profit.  He lost and cut and destroyed MANY more jobs than he created.  He cares about the bottom line for the 1%, not the availability of jobs for workers.

          When O took office we were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month.  It did not take long for him to move us from losing jobs to gaining jobs.  Progress is slow, but at least it is going in the right direction.  Does she want to go back to the policies that almost wrecked the world economy?  Look at how many Rmoney advisers are former Bushies.  He plans to take us back to the disastrous Bush years, complete with new wars (Iran, Syria...).

          The US economy is improving, even if it has not gotten to her yet.  I compare her to people who lost power b/c of Sandy who are complaining that "nothing" is being done because their power is not back on.  Meanwhile the authorities are working 24/7 and lots of other people have had their power restored.  Just because she is still suffering she is denying that anyone has been helped.  The economy IS turning around.  Rmoney would be a president who cares more about the owners' profit than the workers' job security.  He has done that his entire business career.

          I'm a woman living in Massachusetts so you can even give her my email and I will engage her directly.  I will be polite, I promise.  Forward this comment to her and give her my email.

          I am dead serious.  truebluemajority AT gmail DOT com

          "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
          THREE days to go! DO SOMETHING NOW to bring this home for the blue team!!!

          by TrueBlueMajority on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:27:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Only if they're really undecided (0+ / 0-)

      I read somewhere (might have been here) that a lot of supposed undecideds made up their minds months ago, especially in Midwest states like Iowa, and "undecided" is their way of saying "Ain't none of your damn business."

      Q: What's the difference between the Romney/Ryan campaign and RMS Titanic?
      A: The Titanic took less than three hours to sink to the bottom.

      by Omir the Storyteller on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:45:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My favorite is the WaPo editorial (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jazzence, hulibow, skohayes, tb mare, Vicky, Ohkwai

    written by someone who has a grasp of reality.  Truer words were never spoken.

    If you ever get to the place where injustice doesn't bother you, you're dead. ~~ Molly Ivins

    by zoebear on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:49:16 AM PDT

  •  May be hasty....but thinking Redstate should be (4+ / 0-)

    put on suicide watch......just sayin.

  •  I suspect the lead is more like 5%-6% (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority

    So my question is, how are the pollsters asking the questions?

    I suspect they are saying "Are you planing on voting on November 6th". If the person responds no or I have already voted, they move on as they are not technically a "Likely Voter".

    If you count all those who have already voted, where Obama has a 2-1 advantage the numbers would look quite different.

    Things that make you go ummmmmm!

    •  most of the better pollsters (3+ / 0-)

      account for early votes, but how well? an already voted is stronger than an intended vote.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:56:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  just for instance (2+ / 0-)

      WaPo/ABC

      Q: I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? (Among registered voters)

      (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)? (Among registered voters)

      16% volunteered to the first question that they had already voted. The percentage increased to 21% after the second question.

      Certainly the pollsters didn't discard people who said they had already voted. There were about 3% who said their chances of voting were less than 50-50 or volunteered that they didn't expect to vote; it's possible that some of them had already voted. But this doesn't seem likely to be a major source of error.

      Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:13:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maybe I am imagining things... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs

    But I was checking out the polling tool on Huffpost and it looks to me like Obama is trending up +0.2% in the overall national ranking per day. If that keeps up we might be seeing a clear advantage for Obama by election day.

    Keeping my fingers and toes crossed!

    It would be sweet to see him take both the popular and electoral college!

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:55:13 AM PDT

  •  I did a post on the Blow column (0+ / 0-)

    which you can read here

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:01:33 AM PDT

  •  I look inside FL NBC/Marist/WSJ poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs

    in this diary from this morning

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:02:55 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for the roundup, Greg (5+ / 0-)

    So nice to see dailykos back up and running again.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:03:44 AM PDT

  •  WaPo: of course it is contempt. 47 per cent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs

    are immoral leeches. Ninety nine percent are losers. Aym rand says trying to help is for chumps. Of course they hold us AND the process in contempt.

    "Binder? I just met her!"

    by Inland on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:06:08 AM PDT

  •  Greg, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs, al23, Greg Dworkin, skohayes

    Where have you been?  I'm not at the site as much as I used to be but I still make a point of reading your posts every morning.  But you haven't been here.

    I wan't more Greg!  :)

  •  I haven't been able to get on Daily Kos for the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    grayday101, hulibow, skohayes

    last couple of days because of power outages here in New York.  So, I guess I missed all the comments about the great bromance of Christie and Obama then?

    If you ever get to the place where injustice doesn't bother you, you're dead. ~~ Molly Ivins

    by zoebear on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:08:09 AM PDT

  •  Turning point (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    grayday101

    No one who truly sees the issues for what they really are and where these two candidates really stand could ever think about supporting Mitt Romney. A vote for Mitt is a ticket to the dark ages, dismantling America as we know it today. But a billion dollars from Mitt's campaign and a billion dollars from his rich cronies can sway minds. Money and voter suppression will be to blame if Obama loses this. The Republican Party is desperate. But is is clear now that the media-driven Romney "surge" is a myth with no facts to back it up. Voters are aware of the stakes in this election, and they are breaking for the president. You  can't be leading in every swing state poll and not be considered the overwhelming favorite.   -  progressive

  •  what bothers me about the ny times (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    is their gutlessness in key moments. for example...1.their headline after recounting the florida ballots in 2001. "bush would have won even if scotus hdn't stopped recount". their findings were that gore won yet they give bush a misleading headline because it was soon after 9-11. devastating....2 the iraq war lead up. judith miller weapons propaganda nonsense.
    ...so i am supposed to be put off by nate silver giving some back to a blowhard tv host? yeah i am deeply offended. by this margaret sullivan person. what has she done recently to rebut joe scarborough and his likes? i am a news junkie and she hasn't shown up on my radar before yesterday. and is she rebutting joe scarborough? no she is tut-tutting about nothing. i would say whatever, but it is actually really annoying and infuriating.

  •  i cant even read the margaret sullivan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exMnLiberal, askew

    a couple of lines in i knew she was unrepentant. she doesn't get how ridiculous and annoying her argument is. church lady blues.

  •  Thanks Greg (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greg Dworkin, skohayes, DSPS owl

    I needed that.
    It will be interesting to read the APR in the next few weeks when the pundits all proclaim that Mitt was a dishonest candidate and the American people saw through it. Never mind that none of them chose to report his lying when it mattered.

    I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

    by hulibow on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:21:37 AM PDT

  •  Nate's bet (5+ / 0-)

    After Scarborough said Silver's analysis wasn't credible, Nate challenged him to $1000 bet, benefit to a charity, on his projections.

    Margaret Sullivan, NYT ombudsman, complained that it was unprofessional.

    I have to agree. Making pundits actually accountable for their analysis would be a very dangerous precedent in the Village.

  •  i live in pbc fla (5+ / 0-)

    and gov scott is playing the same voter suppression game the gop did in 2000 in stealing that election, long lines and ballot problems in the 3 heavily dem counties pb, broward & dade, the gopers hate democracy and thereby america and its time the people that supposedly love america start making the gop pay for their anti-democratic agenda and stop supporting them, unless of course these voters agree with the gop and then they are as much to blame, also stop waving the flag you have no respect for.

  •  He handles hurricanes well, Florida. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greg Dworkin, mmacdDE

    Think that might be something you'd want in the president, Florida?

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:28:41 AM PDT

  •  The Marist Poll in OH is closer to where (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, askew

    I think the race is in the state, especially after Sandy and Jeep.  Obama is going to win OH by around 5 points or possibly more.  Would not be surprised to see him win by 7 points.  

    The FL poll represents the 4th different organization showing an Obama lead.  Marist, Q, PPP and Grove Insight are a bit more credible than Mason-Dixon.  Obama has the momentum in FL and I would make him a slight favorite to win the state.  The surrogates have blanketed the state and early voting is going very well.  That puts a lot of pressure on Romney to get high turnout and high margins from smaller counties because Obama is going to bring it in the big counties.

    Today's schedule is very good for the President.  NE OH is a Sandy affected region.  Iowa is one of the key states in our coalition.  Virginia with Bill Clinton will be a nice rally.  We'll certainly have more energy than Romney.

    As for Willard, the energy seems to have been sapped from his campaign.  Enthusiasm is low at the rallies and Republicans are starting to grasp that he is not in as strong a position as Fox and co have claimed.  They are still not quite ready to accept that he will lose, but there is worry and for some a loss of energy.  GOPers will still vote, but I think their most loosely affiliated voters might end up sitting this one out (e.g., Ron Paul voters).

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:29:45 AM PDT

  •  Conflicting Florida Data (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, celdd

    Miami Herald (sorry, can't post links) has Romney over Obama in newspaper poll 51-45.

    On the other hand, Raw Story reports,

    About 1,300,000 Democrats have voted so far in both early and absentee voting, compared to about 1,240,000 Republicans and 518,000 affiliated with other parties.
    Gov. Scott's and the Republican Legislature's efforts to depress Democratic voters doesn't seem to be working, in spite of 5 hour waits in some South Dade early voting sites.  Early voting in FL ends tonight.  The gov refuses to extend early voting.

    Readers & Book Lovers Pull up a chair! You're never too old to be a Meta Groupie

    by Limelite on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:32:27 AM PDT

  •  WaPo cuts Mitt loose. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes

    Fred Hiatt must be crying in his Cheerios.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:36:14 AM PDT

  •  look, I admire Nate a great deal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, DSPS owl

    my only problem with him is that pure numbers guys operate on the expectation that past performance is an indication of future results.  assuming that the numbers worked in a certain way in the past means the numbers will work in the same way in the future.

    Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.
    it may be that no one leading a state by a certain number of percentage points three days prior to the election has ever lost such and such a state before.

    but it is also true that there has never been voter suppression on this scale before:  new ID requirements all over the country, and deliberately confusing instructions about which ID is acceptable; last minute changes in early voting targeted at the voting habits of particular demographics and neighborhoods; officially printed and distributed wrong information about when election day is; insufficient equipment in highly populated areas creating long lines in urban/D neighborhoods, equipment malfunctions that only seem to happen in urban/D neighborhoods; voting machines whose totals can be altered electronically without leaving a detection trail... insert clip of Yul Brynner saying etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

    These things did not exist before and did not affect the numbers before.  So that is why I am not as confident as Nate.  I do not see any way for his number crunching to incorporate the human element and the deliberate deceit element.

    "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
    THREE days to go! DO SOMETHING NOW to bring this home for the blue team!!!

    by TrueBlueMajority on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:43:17 AM PDT

  •  I keep thinking (0+ / 0-)

    Mitt had one good day.  If the first debate had gone differently, we would be talking landslide.

  •  Can't Sleep (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, exMnLiberal

    Worried a liar like Romney could steal the White House due to voter suppression in Ohio and Florida.

    What can I do before the 6th gets here so I can get some rest?

  •  Woke up to Crappy Headline in Miami Herald (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gator Keyfitz

    I can't even bring myself to read the article - sounds like a local poll though... only good thing about

    ROMNEY STILL AHEAD IN FLORIDA

    It might make the folks reluctant to wait in line on the last day of early voting pack their patience and stamina and stick it out.  

    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    The other good thing is the TV ad "537" is running a lot - I've seen it twice this morning already.  

    Gonna go read the Pundit roundup, run some errands, then see if I can help out at the Sunrise OFA office today and on Election Day (taking a vacation day).  Going to see the President tomorrow in Hollywood - got my ticket yesterday and planning to get there 4 hours before gates open - I've missed all the other times he was in town both in 2008 and now, because he only comes when I'm stuck at work!!  I'm excited!  

    If you're reading this and you're in Florida, please, please remind all your family and friends that today is the LAST day of EARLY voting.  Please, go, wait in line, stick it out, VOTE - talk to the folks in line with you - can't think of a better thing to do on a lovely south Florida Saturday (except working on GOTV if you already voted!)  

    "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential." - Barack Obama

    by Ricochet67 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:01:41 AM PDT

  •  Nice job, Greg! (0+ / 0-)

    Wonderful round up, full of good news. Thank you.

  •  Charles Manson and I (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohkwai, Curt Matlock

    WaPost:

    He [Obama], too, aired commercials that distorted his opponent’s statements.
    And Charles Manson and I both broke the law.

    I drove 10 miles over the speed limit, and he gruesomely murdered people, but hey I think we can agree there's a comparison to be made there.

  •  Are undecideds really undecided, or just refusing (0+ / 0-)

    to answer the question?

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:28:52 AM PDT

  •  "Wrong track/Right track" numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dr Erich Bloodaxe RN

    I'm sure there are plenty of voters (myself included) who think the country is on the wrong track because of GOP intransigence.

    Barack Obama is not a secret socialist class warrior who wants to redistribute wealth in America. But I'll still vote for him, anyway.

    by looty on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:37:13 AM PDT

    •  And there are plenty of folks who likewise (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      looty

      answer similar questions like job performance thinking that the problem is that he's too far right, not too far left.

      Which is why without asking the followups, the question is kind of meaningless, since it doesn't actually tell you why people answered what they did.

      Do lots of people want to see a serious change from what went on during Obama's first term?  Sure.  But that doesn't mean they want the country to shift even further to the right.  Plenty want to see it shift left enough to actually get things done.  Get the House and Senate back in Dem hands, and actually pass legislation, rather than have it constantly blocked so nothing gets done to help people hurt by the Bush Depression.

      •  IMO the only question that matters is (0+ / 0-)

        Who are you voting for for president?

        The rest is interesting, but purely speculation.

        Barack Obama is not a secret socialist class warrior who wants to redistribute wealth in America. But I'll still vote for him, anyway.

        by looty on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:36:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Kinda nice to see the Washington Post's (0+ / 0-)

    editorial board slamming Romney for the information withheld and the positions flip-flopped half to death.  

    Their wording might even have been a bit stronger, IMO, but it's nice to see that once in a while they have their wits about them.  

  •  The Graph Shows Undecideds Are Vanishing (0+ / 0-)

    The numbers for both candidates inch upwards as the undecideds make a pick.

    The bad news for Mitt is two fold:
    1) He is not gaining on Obama as this happens
    2) The pool of persuadable voters is shrinking fast

    There’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby

    by bernardpliers on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:16:46 AM PDT

  •  be careful about florida though (0+ / 0-)

    mason dixon has romney up by 6. Just don't get too overconfident right now. I want Obama to win big, not just win.

  •  This sentence devoid of logic (0+ / 0-)
    While Linda [McMahon] will be an indep. voice for CT, Chris Murphy was proudly endorsed by the Communist Party.
    I see this all the time on Twitter, in tweets that claim (to use a made-up example) that since the Belgian Communist Party endorsed Obama, Obama must be a communist, or at least it says something sinister about Obama.

    Ha'aretz endorsed Obama too, does that mean he's Jewish?

    Q: What's the difference between the Romney/Ryan campaign and RMS Titanic?
    A: The Titanic took less than three hours to sink to the bottom.

    by Omir the Storyteller on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:36:20 AM PDT

    •  yes, it does (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Omir the Storyteller

      The Sat radio address is taped Fri before sundown.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:42:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Funny, he doesn't look Jewish (0+ / 0-)

        (sorry, couldn't resist)

        So he's Jewish and Muslim, and has a Christian pastor problem. He's an ecumenical universe all to himself. He is large. He contains multitudes. Sometimes the Secret Service needs to bring out the extra wide limo.

        Q: What's the difference between the Romney/Ryan campaign and RMS Titanic?
        A: The Titanic took less than three hours to sink to the bottom.

        by Omir the Storyteller on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:57:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There's some fruitcake Hungarian businessman (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Omir the Storyteller

      putting up TV ads in Ohio atm, out of his own pocket, claiming that he sees the country sliding into socialism, which is a horrible fate!  And he should know!  He lived in a socialist country!

      The reality, of course, is that all modern democracies are socialist to one degree or another, and that most of them are more socialist than the US, and better in many objective measures of life.  He just happened to come from a crappy country, which had nothing to do with the fact that it was more socialist.

      •  Different kind of socialism too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dr Erich Bloodaxe RN

        Soviet-style "socialism" was/is a lot different from the Western European kind. Unfortunately the distinction is lost on most Americans who think there's only one kind of "socialism" and it's . . . well they don't know for sure but it's evil. And bad. Because someone told them it was.

        Q: What's the difference between the Romney/Ryan campaign and RMS Titanic?
        A: The Titanic took less than three hours to sink to the bottom.

        by Omir the Storyteller on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:17:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Nate Silver (0+ / 0-)

    Working as a techie in public radio as I do, I appreciated the remark about specificity in Nate's work.  Gets to the heart of my feelings and thoughts about the limits of the journalistic enterprise (don't get me started on the ontological curtain).

    I was thrilled when Mr. Silver was in our studios.  I shook his hand, told him of my father's running the South Dakota Poll back in the day, and thanked him profusely for his work.

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