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Comment Preferences

  •  CO-7 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    and not one poll has been done.

    Just Win, Baby. -- Al Rodgers, Feb. 24, 2012

    by OLinda on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:17:07 PM PDT

  •  Bob Shrum Says Obama Will Win (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY, bythesea

    This must mean we are going to lose in a horrible landslide. I mean, yikes...

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:17:31 PM PDT

  •  California Prop 30 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    indycam, LordMike, Alibguy, Inoljt, bythesea

    The schools are counting on it.

    Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

    by elfling on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:18:33 PM PDT

  •  Odd Celebrity Endorsements (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, thankgodforairamerica

    I was looking at wikipedia's endorsement page for the 2012 Presidential election.

    For Romney, a lot make sense. You read Lindsay Lohan and think "I remember that, haha." Kelsey Grammar, Chuck Norris, Arnold Schwarznegger, Jon Voigt, Clint Eastwood, Charlie Daniels they're all there and seem right. Here were the surprising or interesting celebrity Romney-endorsements:

    Gene Simmons
    Adam Sandler
    Vince Vaughn
    Sylvester Stallone
    Drew Carey
    David Mamet
    Bart Starr (Wisconsin is lost forever now)

    For Obama:

    Gordon Ramsey
    Kelly Clarkson
    Kris Kristofferson
    Phillip Glass
    George R. R. Martin
    Judy Blume
    Mike Tyson & Muhammad Ali
    Charles Woodson

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:19:14 PM PDT

  •  There one I'm kind of interested in (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    politicalmetrics

    I forget their names but I think it might be of some little interest to a few people maybe , I don't know .

    "Drop the name-calling." Meteor Blades 2/4/11

    by indycam on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:25:05 PM PDT

  •  Final Newspaper wrap up (5+ / 0-)

    McCain to Obama papers:

    San Antonio Express-News (3rd Largest daily newspaper in Texas in terms of circulation)

    San Francisco Examiner (yeah, I don't know how a San Francisco paper stayed in business endorsing John McCain)

    El Paso Times

    Lincoln Journal Star (Nebraska)

    Winston-Salem Journal (North Carolina)

    Major Obama to Romney flips:

    Houston Chronicle, a historically conservative paper, but still a very huge get for Romney. Massive circulation, but pretty conservative and racially polarized area of a non-swing state.

    Orlando Sentinel

    Fort Worth Star-Telegram

    South Florida Sun-Sentinel

    Des Moines Register

    The Tennessean

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:26:58 PM PDT

    •  San Francisco Examiner (5+ / 0-)

      That long mystery was a huge craw in the throat of San francisco progressives that the Examiner was FREE (and incidentally a much better paper for local news than the Chronicle), widely read and that it was owner by the chain of Examiner papers (most famous of which the Washington Examiner) whose editorial pages carried vile ultra-conservative sometimes anti-gay material.
      The day they announced it was sold was one of the happiest of the past year for me.
      They still employ some quite conservative columnists for the local news but it was a breath of fresh air.
      That said, that's one reason the list of newspaper switching endorsements is not worth much. I mean, as someone pointed out with the DMR, changes of ownership or editorial staff has sometimes much more to do with that than anything the candidates did or didn't do. It was true for the SFE and it was true for the DMR whose new editor was infamous for being of conservative bent when he worked at the Desert Sun.

      •  Quad City Times another good get for Romney (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I saw the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed John McCain. How can a paper stay in business in the most liberal city in Iowa pushing such a conservative editorial policy?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:39:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The New York Post is in New York City (0+ / 0-)

          Of course many people read it for the sports, and it's one of 4 major dailies in the city (New York Times, Daily News, and Wall St. Journal round out the list).

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:18:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The New York Post has also lost most money (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            for decades now. Oddly enough, I remember reading that when Murdoch bought it, it was a liberal paper.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:13:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  The Orlando Sentinel is badly out of touch (4+ / 0-)

      Orlando and Orange County as a whole was once very republican.  Those days have long since passed.  The Sentinel has a long history of being a right-wing rag.  Until 2004 I believe they had not endorsed a Democrat for President since LBJ in 1964.  In 2004 and 2008 they endorsed Kerry and Obama.  But now they're back carrying the GOP's water.  A lot of people I know have dropped their subscriptions.

    •  Something to remember (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, sacman701

      is that a lot of papers can be little more than vanity projects for very rich individuals or families. It's usually newer and/or smaller papers that nobody cares about, but even one of the bigger ones, like the New York Post, hasn't made money in, like, forever and was been operated for a long time to give Murdoch a voice in the biggest media market in the world.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:17:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Okay, one big, profound (0+ / 0-)

    amazing music piece as you DKErs work this weekend, painstakingly creating statistical models for your electoral projections on Tuesday, when Daily Kos will need to buy about 30 additional temp servers to handle the traffic:

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:29:40 PM PDT

  •  CA36 (5+ / 0-)

    Good news for Mary Bono Mack or something ...
    CA36 was supposed to be more competitive after redistricting because instead of a 10 point registration difference in favor of the GOP, the Republicans were now only 1.5point more than the Dems in the new district.

    Well, that is not true anymore. Now they are more Democrats
    http://politicalinsider.blogs.mydesert.com/...

    Seems like the Ruiz campaign has been busy registering new voters (Latinos maybe?) instead of panicking about the Peltier story, me says.

  •  So I'm flying out to California (32+ / 0-)

    Tomorrow (Saturday) because I'll be covering election night from Daily Kos HQ in Berkeley with my coworkers. That means I had to vote absentee, and I sent my request for an absentee ballot to the Board of Elections last week.

    Well, needless to say, my ballot never arrived. The Manhattan office is downtown, in an area without power. I called the BoE asking what to do. They said I could come to a temporary location they were using (where they ordinarily house voting machines) to vote up until 8pm tonight.

    So I went down there (33rd & 10th) from the Upper East Side. The E train was out of service, but things actually weren't too bad — I took the 6 to Grand Central (that's as far as it's running), then the shuttle to Times Square, then the 1 down to 34th street (as far as that line is currently running).

    At the BoE, I filled out a new request form, after being reassured that submitting a second request was kosher under the circumstances. I was then directed to a makeshift waiting room in a giant warehouse-style room that housed what looked like hundreds of voting machines. There were probably a couple dozen people, maybe more, in there waiting already.

    I took a seat and asked the person next to me how long the wait was. I was told anywhere from 45 minutes to two hours! Gulp! Every so often, someone would come in the room and read off names of people whose ballots were ready. (I guess there are so many different permutations that maybe it's time-consuming to find the right one.)

    Luckily, my name was called out after 25 minutes (I set a timer on my phone). Some other people, including the couple I sat next to, were not so lucky, though. They kept waiting and waiting and still had not been called by the time I was. (At that point, though, they rightly took a more aggressive approach and directly talked to some officials.)

    Anyhow, I made my way to the front and took a look at the ballot I was handed. It had Dem Rep. Jerry Nadler's name for the congressional race (NY-10), instead of Dem Rep. Carolyn Maloney (NY-12). I explained that to the person who handed it to me, who said no, it was the right one.

    That caused a moment of real panic for me. I knew I was right, but a tiny part of me wondered, "Could I have somehow screwed up? Did I get moved into a new district and not realize it? Me, the editor of Daily Kos Elections? God, no, this can't be happening!" But like I say, I knew I was right.

    Then I worried that the BoE was going to fight me on this, and that I'd be trapped in some bizarre Kafka-esque situation where my only choices would be to cast a vote in the wrong district or cast no vote at all. But fortunately, the guy then agreed with me and, a couple of minutes later, brought me the right ballot. I made sure to double-check the rest of my ballot online and voted without further incident.

    I decided to take a cab home, though from about 35th and 10th all the way to 44th, there was tremendous traffic. The driver explained that there was a Hess station on 44th, and that for whatever reason, Hess seemed to be the only company that actually still had gas. (The gasoline situation is extremely dire in the region, if you haven't read. Whatever you imagine it to be, it's worse.)

    Indeed, there was a line perhaps up to 10 blocks long and 3 lanes wide of people waiting to get gas. The driver told me (I'm a regular Tom Friedman) that he previously waited four hours to gas up, meaning that his car, which is ordinarily driven in two 12-hour shifts, could only be used for one shift today. But regardless of how much it can be driven, he still has to pay a $135/day leasing fee to the company which owns it. That's a huge toll on people who already work a very tough job.

    I just hope that things get better soon, because the suffering here is really hard to capture in a way that makes sense. My wife and I have been absurdly fortunate that we live in an area that never lost power or water, and experienced no flooding. But much of the city has been cast into darkness, in a way that you never want to see. Thankfully, some of the lights are starting to come back on tonight, but it can't happen soon enough—and far more work still remains.

    I'm just glad I got to vote.

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:42:33 PM PDT

    •  Oh, I should add (17+ / 0-)

      There will be dual-track liveblogs on Tuesday night. DKE will handle all the downballot stuff while the DK FP will handle the presidential race. Keep tabs open on both pages!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:45:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The incompetent NYBOE couldn't even give you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      the right ballot on the first try.

      That's scandalous.

      In PA, I am not even sure that you can vote absentee in person (I am doubtful). And typically the deadline for even making a request is something like a week before the election. They do not want you to vote absentee here.

      Lucky you getting out of Dodge, though. It will actually be a reasonable hour for you in CA when you know the results.  

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:47:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A few things, Mr. Nir: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. If this isn't motivation to have better protocols in place for dealing with problems, big or small, when it comes to voting, I am not sure what will be.

      2. Out here on Long Island, the gas situation is kind of ridiculous. Driving home from work late last night, I stopped off to get a drink with a few coworkers, and you could see how bad it was. Thankfully, it was fairly well organized, probably due to the fact that police and even the military were involved. Someone at work said someone in Miller Place got shot when he tried to cut the line, although I am not sure how true that is.

      Thankfully, some the gas stations were down because of a lack of power. They have gas, so when the power comes back on, they can sell it. Even more importantly, without going into the details that I am not sure I fully understand, more gas should be here soon.

      3. How much of the city is really in darkness or struggling in some other ways? The power seems to be slowly creeping back on here on Long Island.

      Along the same lines, I am curious about your reaction to this. To me, it seems WAYYYYYY too dramatic and a big rush to judgement. Issues about getting around, primarily with the subways, will be with us for some time, it seems, but other than that, I don't see why this would permanently alter the composition of commerce.

      I'm asking you because you might have a better feel for the situation, being closer to the area than me.

      Have a safe trip to California, by the way.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:12:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Power came back on (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bjssp

        In much of lower Manhattan last night — easier to restore there first because the wires are underground. If you Google around, you can watch some pretty awesome videos of throngs of people spontaneously bursting into raucous cheers the moment the lights snapped back on.

        That said, there are still many lives ruined (and lost), many neighborhoods destroyed. Breezy Point, the Rockaways, Staten Island — it's devastating. For some people, life may never feel quite normal again. Some may lack insurance and, thanks to the shoddy social safety net in this country, may have comfortable lives replaced with fear, uncertainty, and misery. There are many tragedies at hand, most still in the process of unfolding. We just have to do everything in our power for those so affected.

        That said, the notion of a permanent change in NYC? Absurd. Beyond absurd. This city will rebuild. It will continue to grow. It will continue to be the greatest place humankind has ever created. We just need some extra help right now. But we will be back — 100% and then some. That's an iron-clad promise.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:55:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I completely agree (4+ / 0-)

          But many areas of New York City will be permanently under water in a few decades if global warming is not reversed by artificial means or high walls are not built to dam sea water. And even ignoring this, many things need to change, such as Con Edison moving their sensitive equipment to higher ground as soon as new substations can be built.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 02:11:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That's a great story! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Glad you got to vote!

      Also, I'm glad to hear you're heading out to my area, the bay area! I've been making sure that folks in the Marin Office are volunteering like crazy and making those really important calls to swing states.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:19:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  my ballot got mailed to my apartment (4+ / 0-)

      my girlfriend got it from our box, handed it to me, I filled it out and she dropped it off a couple days later.

      Vote by mail!

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:52:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've liked vote by mail (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        For a long time. Now I'm fanatically in favor of it.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:49:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  of course, assuming it works (0+ / 0-)

          someone I know from NY had her ballot sent back to her home instead of her address in Japan (wtf?). and now she won't get to vote. they also apparently told her she was registered in two places, which she knew she wasn't.

          Providence BoE is usually pretty good although one time they mailed my absentee ballot to my registered address in RI rather than the address in Chicago I was living at. granted they sent me another one in time and it was a meaningless election (2012 Dem presidential primary) but it was still unnerving.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:43:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Last weekend thread before the election! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, ArkDem14, C88, MichaelNY

    I'm so nervous/excited!

    I don't think I'll be able to sleep on Tuesday night.

  •  wow, Artur Davis really is an idiot (8+ / 0-)

    At a Romney rally tonight:

    “Now four years ago, ladies and gentleman, the president sounded so good. Remember the rise of the oceans, which began to slow, the planet would began to heal,” Davis said. “Now I don’t know about the oceans; ask Mayor Bloomberg and Al Gore about that.”
  •  First 100 Days of the Romney Administration (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    A good reminder of what is at stake.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:01:29 PM PDT

  •  Harvard Business School Students Support Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, bythesea

    There's lots of interesting information in this well written, context-heavy article.

    Part of the appeal no doubt comes from the fact that some of the students are international, but even the Americans prefer him over Romney. The article notes that the polling service doesn't reveal specific information for individual categories, but given how heavily male the school is and how strong Obama's support is overall, he almost has to be doing better with white males at HBS than he is amongst the population as a whole. It also notes that the students identify as Democrats far more than they do as Republicans or Independents, but I suspect that might be largely an issue of age. Then again, this probably isn't a hotbed of Marxism.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:04:05 PM PDT

  •  A comparison with France (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, Taniel, MichaelNY

    Just for the fun of it, it is amusing to fill ballots in the US.

    Back in France, they schedule elections one at a time, so the way it works is that you enter the ballot place and you got piles and piles of little pieces of papers with the candidate's name printed on each. You pick some (and that's fun to watch people: some people are very proper and take one of each candidate, some people take a couple of random ones on top of the one of the people they are voting for in order to keep their vote "secret", some POINTEDLY only take the one of the candidate they have chosen) and then go in the voting booth, slip the one you have chosen in the enveloppe then get out and put it in the box after your name was found on the registration rolls.
    Fun dilemna for the leftovers ballots too: do you throw them out in the garbage can in the booth? My mom would make a point of putting them in her pocket and delicately cut them in small pieces at home before throwing them out because "vote should stay secret".

    Such a different experience.

    •  Lots of newfound fans of paper ballots in the US (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      It has been forgotten, I think, why we abandoned them in the first place: a ten-year-old could figure out how to stuff the ballot box.

      Those archaic lever machines were a googoo reform.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:14:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Never had any issue in France (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden, MichaelNY

        I literally NEVER heard of ANY scandal or controversy concerning the running of elections in France. EVER. No voter fraud, no concerns about ballot-stuffing. Everything is on the up and up.
        I know most of us already know our way of running elections is screwed up but it is all the more glaring when you think large democracies like France where it is an absolute non-issue even with an old fashioned system like this.
        The old paper ballot system (In transparent boxes with a lever that can only be pulled to open and slip something and a lock that only an official has the key to for counting after polls close), HANDWRITTEN voter ledgers, ... And yet nothing. No controversy or problems.

        •  Well, France just had an armed revolution (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Audrid, MichaelNY

          or two.

          Why are we in the Fifth Republic now? ;)

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:21:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And that's nothing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Forget that France is the country in the world with the record of regime changes (French institutional history in the 19th century is HILARIOUS) but they also have the record of the number of times they have amended their Constitution. Every couple of years in the past twenty years there is a new series of amendments

            •  I think there is a lot to admire (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              in the political system of Great Britain. Their constitutional style is so old, it isn't even on paper.  

              But I've come to think that the form/constitution of your government matters much less than the views and inclinations of the people who run it (and usually, the electorate).

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:28:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Australia is a good case in point (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I always say Australia is what American politics would be with British institutions.
                The dynamic between the parties (especially in the past twenty years and the Liberal Party drift to the right) and the issues are so similar to ours but obviously played out in a British style Parliamentary system

                Not a fan of the British system personally. First past-the post in a three-party environment means very few MPs are elected with a majority of their electorate and the Chamber of Lords is a democratic disgrace.

                •  The Chamber of Lords (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  is mostly ceremonial now, and in any case the majority of the members are actually distinguished former figures in government. It's no different really than how we appoint Federal Judges here, for the most part.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:35:45 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Lords is well under control (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                  The U.S. Senate is a disgrace--it has actual power that cannot be democratically rebuffed. As to voting methods, I won't be a broken record on that one. Let's just say that there isn't a single optimal method.

                  I like most features of the Australian system.

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:37:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Uh (0+ / 0-)

                    I prefer a dysfunctional chamber full of people elected democratically than a functional chamber full of people PICKED by the people who ahve power (and that's literally fundraisers for the party 2 times out of 3  or people who lost the elections they ran for) or who INHERITED their seats
                    Inacceptable.

                    •  Under the Parliament Acts, (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Audrid, MichaelNY

                      the House of Lords ultimately has no power to block anything. Under the Constitution the Senate has complete power to block everything. Moreover, while elected, the Senate is malapportioned by design. A supermajority nationally could vote against a party and it could still win a majority in the Senate. Wyoming and California get the same number of Senators.

                      That is such an obvious outrage of democracy that it almost makes my hair stand on end just to think about it.

                      Ok, so I read the polls.

                      by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:46:10 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Again (0+ / 0-)

                        They can block thigns for a quite a while and have screwed up many plans but that's not even the point. That unelected people have any right to amend and intervene in the making of laws is unacceptable.
                        Governments accomodate the Lords all the time to avoid the bill being blocked for a year or two. It is very rare that they go  to override. Actually I can think of only one example in the last fifteen years.

                        •  We fundamentally disagree (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          There are lots of facts that can impact legislation beyond elections. I presume, for example, that you do not object to administrative agencies and the rulemaking.

                          The point about Lords is that it can ultimately be overcome, with or without its consent, by a fairly and democratically elected government. The Senate cannot.

                          I find your point about the unelected nature of the House of Lords uninteresting post-Parliament Act. You might as well demand that the news media be elected.

                          Ok, so I read the polls.

                          by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:00:10 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Oh wow (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, wwmiv

                            i was with you until that last sentence that makes NO sense whatsoever. It is not comparable. the House of Lords belongs to Parliament. It is certainly not ridiculous to request it to be ELECTED. What the hell does this have to do with the media? Very silly comparison.

                            On the rest, we agree that we have a different disagreement about what matters. You are talking efficiency. And I am saying I am not willing to sacrifice democratic principles in the name of efficiency.

                            Now you can argue that the filibuster is undemocratic and we agree on that. But saying British institutions are superior in that sense is very very wrong. There is no defense for unelected and hereditary Lords having any say in the laws of the country. Period.

                          •  You say you were with me, but you appear (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            not to have been.

                            To be clear, my dispute with the Senate does NOT center on the filibuster. Rather, I object to the fact that it is not Democratically elected (because representation is not base on population) and that it gets a final say on whether or not legislation passes. Did you think I was just referring to the filibuster?

                            And I stand by my news media comparison. Though I might as well have asked you whether you also objected to the Queen. She, like the House of Lords, or the BBC, can theoretically impact legislation. In fact, she is worse, because unlike either of the other two, she retains a vestigial veto power.

                             

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:12:42 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv

                            We are mixing a lot of things and talking past each other

                            I was saying that my reason for disliking the House of Lords is democratic principle. And I was saying if you want to argue the Senate is undemocratic the filibuster would be somehow a plausible case to make.  The unequal representation however is not "undemocratic". Those people are elected and there is a chamber with equal demographic representation. And even if you think unequal representation is bad, how can UNELECTED people or HEREDITARY Lords be better? Much much worse.

                            The news media thing... still don't understand your quip AT ALL. Nonsensical. The Queen is a good point (although in reality she does not veto anything anymore and the British people would not tolerate her trying to whereas the Lords modify legislation at will and have tried to veto legislation in the past ten years) but all you prove is ... that the British system is REALLY not better than ours. Which was my point: our system, for all its flaws, is much more democratic and the fact the British system functions more smoothly - which was your other defense of it - is NOT a justification for its severe flaws in terms of principles.

                          •  Facially absurd (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            andgarden
                            The unequal representation however is not "undemocratic".
                            You might as well argue that if South Africa under Apartheid has reserved 70% of Parliament for Whites, with the rest for Coloreds, Indians, and Blacks, it would have been a "democratic" system. If in France, Paris had 90% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, would you still make this absurd argument?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:37:11 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You are mixing apple with oranges (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv

                            And the key is that there IS a chamber with equal representation.
                            France has a Senate that is different from the US and indirectly elected but that in practice also vastly overrepresents rural less populated rural areas.

                            It is not ridiculous. It is a political science point that a federal chamber representing the states is not "undemocratic" - most Western democracies have one of those - as long as there is a chamber that represents the populace equally. You can argue it is unfair, wrong, stupid, and all that and I would agree but I would quibble with the specific notion of "undemocratic"

                            Also, let me roll my eyes at the comparison with apartheid which, other than to try to inflame a constitutional law debate for no reason, has no place in this discussion.

                            But to get back to our initial point, my point is that even if you consider the Senate undemocratic, there is no possible way you could consider MORE undemocratic than the House of Lords that is not even elected so it doesn't even represent anyone other than themselves. Clearly much much much worse and that was my initial point here.

                          •  It's not more undemocratic than the House of Lords (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            andgarden, sacman701

                            But it has vastly more power than the House of Lords, and I couldn't disagree with you more strongly that severe malapportionment is undemocratic - and explicitly undemocratic by design. The entire point of the Great Compromise was to have a House that with one huge exception (the allocation of 3/5 of a vote for redistricting purposes only to slaves) was popularly elected and a Senate that represented each state equally. As you may know, the Senate was originally elected not by the people but by state legislatures, and at least it is now subject to popular elections in each state, but to say that it is a democratic body is just as absurd as calling the General Assembly of the UN, in which Tuvalu and India have equal representation, a "democratic" body.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 02:28:26 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't agree with that (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv

                            And I don't agree with your comparisons.
                            The Senate as designed - heck our Constitution as designed - were indeed full of undemocratic provisions.,
                            The 3/5 provisions and lack of women vote were obviously undemocratic provisions but they are irrelevant now.
                            I consider the Senate severely flawed but I don't share your assessment of what is undemocratic or not. Unfair, wrong, what have I you. Yes. But a federal system can feature a house with equal representation and a house representing the territories and perfectly fit the design of a democracy. A lot of other large democracies actually offer representations to territories in their upper house in an INDIRECT manner (a la state legislatures) like France or Germany which is also demographically iffy and on top of it, not even directly elected. Our Senate has flaws but the fact it is directly elected is the most democratic a federal system can be.

                            And in any case, the reason this was raised was to argue American or British superiority of institutions and I emphatically stand by stance that the House of Lords is a much more galling institution than the Senate.

                          •  Oh and I was with you (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv

                            On the fact we had a fundamental disagreement about what mattered when judging a system and that there is much more to legislation than simply elections.
                            I was taking your comment as a way to tie up the conversation to simply state we disagreed on the CRITERIA by which to judge the systems.

          •  Algeria (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, MichaelNY

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:25:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That was the trigger (0+ / 0-)

              But the Fourth Republic was very very poorly conceived and an institutional disaster. A new Constitution would have come sooner or later

              •  It was sort of my tongue in cheek response (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But I am actually studying Fanon's The Wretched of the Earth and Djebar's Women of Algiers in their Apartments this semester in a decolonization class.

                Also, as a Cajun I've always felt a bit of affinity of L' France.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:33:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Sorry (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Obviously as a fan of history, politics and as a French born, you can get me to talk about all this at length if you provoke me LOL :)

                  •  Ah ma cherie (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Wenn ich nur auch Französisch sprechen könnte.

                    In any case, I may take you up on that to get your perspective sometime.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:40:56 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Anytime (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                      And learned German as my first language in French High School. My parents making a point about evil English or something :) Ah the French ... If they had known then ...

                      •  How very convenient (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Do you follow German politics too? Haha.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:45:58 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  A little secret (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                          I absolutely love electoral politics all around the world. German politics is not my favorite because the language barrier is still tough for long political analysis but yeah I follow it thanks to their English speaking media and in the depth coverage in the French media (Europeans cover their neighbours much much more closely and in details than we do)
                          On top of all the blogs and newspapers for the US and following 50 states politics, I follow French politics intimately and read British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealander newspapers every day.

                        •  I also recommend (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                          The blog World Elections for fans of psephology. VERY details previews and reports on elections in every country that holds them. Just this week detailed explanations of the elections iN Galicia, Basque Country and Lithuania with historical background, detailed review of the political situation, analysis of the results both politically and demographically, maps ...
                          I LOVE that blog

                •  To add a little color, watch Day of the Jackal (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, KingofSpades

                  Ok, so I read the polls.

                  by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:37:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  I liked the lever machines (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A

        and wasn't happy when they were going to be replaced. However, as long as they keep the paper ballots after they use the optical scan machines, I'm OK with them being able to refer to them.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:31:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Admittedly a flawed sign, (5+ / 0-)

    but Todd Young claims his race is "neck and neck" in a fundraising email. He has been spending like he is in the fight of his political life. I just feel really good about this, as if the stars are starting to align. I know she will lose, but at least she is firing up the base and giving us some hope.

    I have heard from numerous people that the state party loves Shelli because she is getting Democrats fired up and turning out, which is helping statewide candidates immensely. Donnelly has been helping a lot in terms of funding because her volunteers work on the coordinated campaign for him as well.  

    The majority of volunteers in the state are coming out of Bloomington. This is typical, but in much greater numbers than usual. If the Senate race is closer than it should be, then at least partial credit should go her way I feel like.

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:19:45 PM PDT

    •  If Yoder were to win, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I wonder what it might take to get her to victory. Any guesses? I mean, you know the state better than me.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:23:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One Indiana DKE wrote out a (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, SouthernINDem, MichaelNY

        wonderful, detailed guide to each of the counties in the district, their political geography, and the benchmarks Yoder needed to meet in order to win.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:25:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have heard that Democratic (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          early voting/absentees are very high in Clark County. They got a new county chair over the summer who has been very aggressive on this after the party there has been on a slow decline. She is also making an aggressive push to steal away Republican leaning women in Johnson County.

          If Shelli wins, it might be the campaigning she has done. I would say she has personally met about as many individual people as any candidate in the nation.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:33:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You must have been the person writing up (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            IN-09.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:36:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, I did (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              if I were doing it again, I would need to look at some of the early voting numbers. They are pretty high in Harrison County, which should be a bellwether in the district along with probably Jackson County. Based on how the state party categorizes  people (which is based on primary voting and some other factors), here is how Harrison County is breaking down:

              Strong Democrats 476
              Leaning Democrats 629
              Independents 124
              Leaning Republicans 430
              Strong Republicans 127
              Unknown 206
              No Data 353
              Total 2345

              The total Dem percentage is about 4 points higher than 2008 and some of the people have moved out of the Dem categories after the 2012 primary.

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:43:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  That's exactly the sort of shot (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in the arm that Democrats in Indiana need, it seems.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:41:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  With Donnelly going to the Senate (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              I am hoping he will take the reigns of the party out of the sad state it is in. Something also needs to happen with the House caucus. I would say that state party incompetence will cost us between 2-6 State House seats in Indiana. We need a non-Bayh, non-Indianapolis state chair.

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:53:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  There was a commentor (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                the other day who said it seems unlikely Donnelly will do that.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:56:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Hope it's true and not just a fundraising ploy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:37:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It might not be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Young has been relatively invisible for most of his term, but all of a sudden he is showing up to a lot of things.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:43:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Unlikely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Yoder will not win this cycle. However, she has made this seat much more competitive than it should be. I really hope she runs for this seat again in the future. IN-09 will be trending in our direction over the next decade, and I believe she'll be our best candidate for this seat. I rooted for Jonathan George in the primary because I thought he had a really compelling background. However, in retrospect, I'm glad Yoder won. She's proven that she deserves 110% support from the state party, and if she runs again, I really hope the state party and the DCCC get behind her candidacy.

      Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 01:44:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  why will it trend our way? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Most of the population is in Demosaur areas

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:40:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not seeing that one either (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It seems more likely to stay static or continue to trend red.

          Fastest growth: Indy exurbs and Louisville suburbs/exurbs
          Moderate growth: Bloomington area
          Decline: rural areas

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:55:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Will any of the major networks be livestreaming (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    election night coverage?

    I'd like to record it for posterity.

  •  Texas Non-VRA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MattTX, MichaelNY

    With the recent discussion of the implications of not having the VRA, I took it upon myself to draw up a map of Texas under such circumstances.

    Any guesses on how many Democratic districts Republicans could limit us to?

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:28:43 PM PDT

    •  Uh...5? (0+ / 0-)

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:30:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  3-4, I would guess--depending on how much (0+ / 0-)

      risk they wanted to take. Georgia could probably get by with 2.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:30:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Zero (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      politicalmetrics, MichaelNY

      TX as a whole is safe GOP, so you can make every district in the state safe GOP, if you are willing to draw crazy enough lines. :)

      •  LOL (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MattTX, MichaelNY, kman23

        No. What is politically possible is minimizing Democrats to 6. One each in Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, and the Valley.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:59:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Okay, more realistically, 3 (0+ / 0-)

          Republicans would want to draw as many seats as they could for themselves. Remember, State Senators and Representatives on the redistricting committees would be drawing their own seats in Congress. With no VRA, there would be no shortage of ambitious politicians who wanted seats in DC.

          Dallas - Agreed, one max pack
          Houston - Agreed, one max pack
          Valley - Agreed, I think they'd have to concede 1. Not because it can't be cracked, but because it would just look TOO bad on a map without at least one compact district. Cracking the Valley would be a true abgin map. So they would concede one (a swing district is probably too much to ask) and crack the rest.

          Austin - Are you kidding me? Austin would be split into 5 or 6 districts, all of which would be safe GOP. No way they would give Lloyd Doggett a seat.
          San Antonio - I'd guess they'd have to concede a GOP leaning swing district. Probably, but not necessarily.
          El Paso - What they would do is make 1 safe GOP district in El Paso by combining with Midland/Odessa, and another GOP-leaning swing district combining the most Democratic parts of El Paso with rural areas.

          Generally, they would try and create lots of new Republican fake-Hispanic districts, with large Hispanic populations but with White Republicans controlling the outcome, and they'd try and recruit Hispanic Republicans to run for those.

  •  Are people down on Cicilline/Etsy or just worried? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, thankgodforairamerica

    Matheson, I can kind of see, and certain Tisei looks like he will win. But Doherty and Rorback?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:29:57 PM PDT

    •  Races to Watch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      I wouldn't say I am "worried" but definitely in the bubble.
      And if we lose those, bad sign for the rest of the evening

    •  I think they both have a shot. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY, kman23

      And they wouldn't necessarily be bad omens--House races are correlated but not that correlated.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:49:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I meant bad night (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, bjssp, MichaelNY

        In the sense that if we lose those than whatever gains we make will be balanced by some losses.
        Only way we get to a good night House-wise if we limit the losses. We have many offensive opportunities but if races on the bubble on defense fall, then we are not going to go as high as double-digits like the most optimistic like me are rooting for.
        That's the omen I was referring to.

      •  I'm trying to think of (0+ / 0-)

        what signs we have that they might be in trouble. I'm not coming up with much.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:57:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Of poll and PACs (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          There was a poll this week for WPRI that showed Cicilline up one 43-42 that many smart local analysts said was a VERY bad sign for him because the momentum was downward and his numbers should not be so low. We all assume the underlying Dem lean of the district will help pull him through in the end but he is way way underperforming what he should be so a race to watcj.

          As for Robarack, it is the very very heavy investment from third-parties. Clearly internal polling shows something if Crossroads and Co are constantly going up for him (and this week Bloomberg's PAC) and Dems have had to invest to shore her up.

          Again just signs the races are on the bubble but as you say, without firm poll numbers, we won't know until Tuesday if the soft numbers were just that. But since we have to wait til Tuesday considering the lack of polling, well, they are on the bubble

        •  Cicilline. (4+ / 0-)

          The fact is both the NRCC and DCCC spent in RI-01, in a 67% Obama seat.  A poll had Cicilline only up by one (I first saw it on D. Bernstein's Twitter).  Likely R?  No.  But signs Cicilline might be in trouble?  Yes.

          Esty?  It's an open seat, a moderate Republican's running, and the district isn't prohibitively blue.  Likely R?  No.  But might Esty lose?  Sure.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:07:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's a fair assessment, Xeno. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:21:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think Rep. Cicilline will lose (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      I think Esty will win, albeit fairly narrowly (five points or so).

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:51:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's looking bad for him. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But at least with Cicilline getting the boot that district probably just flips back to us in 2014 with a halfway decent candidate.  That will likely be the case in MA-06 as well.  Losing that seat is entirely because of Tierney.  

        CA-31 might be another one.  Any credible Dem candidate will win that seat.  Unfortunately we gave that one away with the messy jungle primary that led to two republicans making the run-off.

        •  Cicilline is in a toss-up race (0+ / 0-)

          there's no evidence that he's behind per se, aside from that one Doherty internal.

          MA-06 is nowhere as blue as RI-01. we shouldn't take it for granted. we can win, but we have to work hard. remember, it's redder than the state as a whole, and look how hard we had to work to pry Scott Brown away.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:55:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  i think esty might be in trouble- (0+ / 0-)

      this isn't my bitterness over what happened to my candidate in the primary talking. i did end up helping her.

      esty has a bit of a mean streak in her humor. a friend of mine who is not politically active, but whose work places her at events w/ politicians, told me she was shocked by a joke etsy made.

      i wasn't there, and i haven't found any coverage. what my friend said was roraback gave part of his speech in spanish. when esty spoke, she made fun of roraback, saying that hearing him speak spanish reminded her of why she doesn't sing in church.

      i know this might seem petty, and i know i wasn't even there. i just think if people have to choose between two people whom they perceive as being very similar candidates, they might go with the nicer one.

      i've never seen her be mean at an event, but i haven't been at any events that had candidates from both parties in attendance.

      i have heard her make crazy mistakes in her speeches- like when she referred to bill clinton as former senator. she also says this weird "3 for 1 sale" thing when she tells us to vote for obama/murphy and her. i don't know why she says it, and i wish she would stop.

      i don't ask attendees at the events what they think- i act enthusiastic, and i clap and smile.

      there's also a devastating ad where they play a tape recording of esty telling a senior she's free to move to one of cheshire's neighboring town's if she can't afford the high property tax.

      i know a lot of dems who are openly saying they won't vote for esty- some even have roraback signs on their lawns. i don't know if she's turned off enough dems to lose, or if she's failing to win over enough independents.

      i am voting for esty. i tell every one i contact we need to vote for all the dems on row b. i do it differently though- i vote on the working families party line, but it's for the dem candidates. i don't get that complicated when i talk to voters though- i just say vote row b!

      i know ppp shows chris w/ a nine point lead over mcmahon. this should be enough to help esty- it really should. i'm just surprised by how many people say they won't be voting for her.

      in addition to the people who dislike her because of how she served in her one term as state rep, and the people who think she's really not all that different from roraback anyway, there are also has people who say they'd rather run a dem against roraback in 2014 than have to primary a dem.

      between what i hear from well informed voters and what i hear from low information voters, i don't know what's going to happen to esty on tuesday. i do think the race will be much closer than the race between chris and linda.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:20:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Miami Herald FL poll (0+ / 0-)

    Romney 51 - Obama 45

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...

    Hum ... no. Nice try though.

  •  One thing I thought was interesting (4+ / 0-)

    in the Howey Poll was the State Supt of Public Instruction race. Tony Bennett only has a very narrow lead over Glenda Ritz. I know that many of you will say that this is because it is a lower state race, but Bennett has been the most visible constitutional officer in the state and one of the most radical on education policy in the nation. Brian Howey must have been hearing something to even include this race in the poll. I had been hearing from certain Dems that Bennett was vulnerable, but this confirms it. And Howey did not include this race just because he was including all state races. He did not include the AG race.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:59:37 PM PDT

  •  Oregon ballot returns (0+ / 0-)

    Dems are down to a less than 9 point registration advantage among those who've turned out, and Multnomah, Lane, and Washington counties are still lagging, but no worries, it looks like its becoming the norm in recent elections for up to a third of the votes coming in on election day.  In 2004 it was only 16%.  In 2010 it was 30%.  Oregonians, especially in the big cities, are voting later.

    And I still have Obama at about 54.36% of the two party votes cast so far.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:02:03 PM PDT

  •  Marist OH/FL polls (13+ / 0-)

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:02:11 PM PDT

    •  Hopefully, they have a great record (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      and methodology.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:07:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome way to cap the night (7+ / 0-)

      I've been offline for much of the past couple days, having a hard time keeping up with comments here, let alone commenting myself.

      I'm sucked into election work and PTA work at the same time.  Right now I am regretting having agreed to be my daughter's school's PTA Treasurer!  They scheduled a meeting the night after the election, worst possible timing for me.

      So meanwhile I need to round up more volunteers to be poll greeters on election day at my precinct.  Lots of time on the phone tomorrow, I'm sure.

      Then I need to learn how to use the damn financial software for the PTA.  Ugh.

      On the election, I'm very gradually entering a state of serenity, my months of ever-increasing anxiety finally diminishing.  Everything has happened that can affect people's votes, nothing more lies before us, the die is cast.  All that is left is pestering everyone possible on our side to vote.  But with the polls all week swinging our way in all the battlegrounds, it's clear President Obama will be reelected.  That doesn't mean I won't still chew my fingernails on Tuesday......I'll be nervous until Ohio and most of the other battlegrounds and the election itself are called.  But I'm fully expecting victory.

      Amazingly, we're going to end up no worse than break-even in the Senate, and more likely to gain a seat than lose one.  That makes me smile.  Thank you batshit crazy right-wing whackadoodles for throwing so many races our way the past couple cycles.  We owe our entire majority to extremism electing or reelecting Coons/Bennet/Reid, and soon McCaskill and Donnelly.

      Sadly the House will be status quo.  For a long time I expected a net gain of 10-15 seats, getting us roughly halfway to retaking control, but alas it's clear even 10 is a longshot...we'll have to be happy with net 5.  Sigh.

      I can't complain at all, I've lived through much worse.  The 1996 Clinton reelection was no joy at all, only relief that we saved the Presidency from the wingnuts, reelecting what most of us at the time regarded a "meh" President.  The GOP easily held the House and Senate despite despicable characters and despicable behavior, and held the House for a dozen years.  We might not suffer that long this time if we can get some Governorships to shake up the maps after 2020, but we're probably looking at a GOP House for some years unless Boehner completely loses control and the crazies take full control, with no brakes.

      Feeling better than ever about Tuesday for POTUS, though.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:33:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Even 10 is a long shot? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, kman23

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:11:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I still will hold out hope for a House flip (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, KingofSpades, bythesea, kman23, R30A

        until the election returns are in.

        Kudos for all your public service!

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:45:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah... (0+ / 0-)

        I've been looking at the House races and I can't see a Dem gain of more than a couple seats. I think the House is probably lost to the Dems for this decade, unless a Republican president gets elected in 2016 and is extremely unpopular right off the bat.

      •  >200 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, R30A

        Going district by district, I have trouble seeing how Dems gain less than 14, give or take a couple.  Dem pickups, to me, are AZ-1, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-26, CA-41, CA-52, CO-6, FL-9, FL-18, FL-22, FL-26, IL-8, IL-10, IL-11, IL-13, IL_17, MD-6, MI-1, , MN-8, NV-4, NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, one other one in NY, OH-6, OH-3, OH-16, TX-23, TX-33, TX-34, WA-10, and WI-7.  (+32) Redistricting eliminated 9 Dem seats (assuming Latham beats Boswell), and Republicans would pick up AR-4, CA-21, IN-2 (which I think is very very close to being a Dem hold), MA-6, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OK-2, and UT-4.  If Dems do well in NY or CA, that could get them another 2-4 seats.  I also think that CO-3, TN-4, MI-11, and MI-8 are less secure for Republicans than many think, but that's based off of my own feelings.

        You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

        by Samara Morgan Dem on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:52:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Note that some of those are Tossup/Tilt R (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          in my book. I don't think we're favored in OH-06 or FL-18, and WI-07 is at least Tilt R, if not Lean R. The seat has an EVEN PVI, and Kreitlow is considerably behind in spending.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:41:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  OH-6 etc (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think that Dems are underestimated there.  Back in the 1990s, Ted Strickland knocked off a much more established incumbent than Bill Johnson, and the district had a similar shape, was voting for Bush, and had a perennial candidate as the Dem nominee.  Moreover, Charlie Wilson is a good fit for the district and won big in 2006 and 2008.  That's my reasoning.  As for FL-18 and WI-7, I have a hard time seeing people vote Allan West back in, and I have trouble seeing a district with a solid Dem core (Superior, etc) keeping a Republican, even if the PVI went down.  I could have gone either way in my pick on WI-7, though.  I could also be totally wrong about this, particularly for FL-18 and WI-7.

            You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

            by Samara Morgan Dem on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 02:48:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  here's how I have those (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          likely or safe D: IL8, OH3, TX33, TX34, WA10
          lean D: AZ1, AZ9, CA26, CA41, CA52, FL9, FL22, FL26, IL10, IL11, ND6, MN8, NV4, NY24
          tilt D: CA7, IL13, IL17, MI1, MI11
          tossup: CO3, CO6, FL18, NH1, NH2, IA3, CA21, WI7, OH6, OH16, TX23, NY18, IN2, TN4
          tilt R: MA6, UT4, NY19
          lean R: NC8, OK2
          likely or safe R: AR4, NC11, NC13, MI8

          TN4 and MI11 are special cases. In both, generic R easily beats generic D and you have a credible but underfunded Dem against a toxic Republican. They depend on how well the Dems' negative ads sink in.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:24:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  There's a problem with that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          All indications are that Kirkpatrick has lost ground in the last few weeks, Schneider is still failing to close the deal in Illinois, Horsford has never been ahead in any poll at any time whatsoever, we still don't have conclusive evidence that Bustos is ahead, and we certainly don't have conclusive evidence in Gill's race.

          Who is even running in MI-08?

    •  I think Romney's late push at PA and MN (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bjssp, MichaelNY

      Are out of flailing desperation of not getting anywhere in Ohio

      •  He has no paid staffers in Minnesota (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, MichaelNY

        if what I read in the Star Tribune is accurate. Short of some demographic change that might pay off sooner than you anticipate, I don't think you win a state without working at it.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:35:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney embarks on a major rebuilding effort (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:03:37 PM PDT

  •  Final Washoe EV day (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

    Democrats and GOP at even for the final day (5 vote difference):
    http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:04:19 PM PDT

  •  I just got polled (12+ / 0-)

    for the first time. It was by PPP.

    They asked me about the Pres race, Senate race, Gov race, R-74, and I-502.

    So expect a WA poll from them soon.

    It was pretty exciting

    Age 24, WA-3, Republican, elected PCO, overall conservative, gay and engaged, vote yes on WA R-74

    by KyleinWA on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:14:54 PM PDT

  •  FL (5+ / 0-)
    •  Obama up 2 in FL would mean something like (0+ / 0-)

      Obama leading by 4-5 in I-4, which is a 10pt swing from what MD is seeing.  I get that I-4 isn't the whole state, but Miami alone can only provide a 100-125K margin at most for Obama after canceling out Northern Florida.  Obama cannot lose I-4 by much if he expects to win the state.

  •  CA-35: Here's the Bloomberg PAC ad. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:22:50 PM PDT

  •  I'll be voting for Tammy Baldwin on Tuesday (5+ / 0-)

    Still proud that I get to say, "I voted for the first openly gay US Senator"

    As for election day?  I'm primarily focused on senate races, whether we can hold North Dakota, Montana, win Arizona, but I'd love to send Mary Bono-Mack out with Connie Mack, they can go lobby together.  

    I'm more curious as to the winners and losers for pollsters accuracy.  Cheering on PPP in that race.  

  •  to answer the question of the topic... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    uclabruin18, MichaelNY

    I'm most interested in CA-23. I think Terry Phillips will break 35% and possibly 40% against Kevin McCarthy in an R+17 district.

    Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

    by hankmeister on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:37:09 PM PDT

  •  Our failed media experiment (8+ / 0-)

    This NYT piece is about the Presidential election in battleground Wisconsin:  http://www.nytimes.com/...

    Sigh.

    The piece refers to "recent polls sending mixed signals about this battleground state."

    We learned that a random voter is switching from Obama last time to Romney now, another from McCain last time to Obama now, and a few others voting for either candidate now for varying unsurprising reasons.

    We learned what "[t]he Obama campaign argues," followed by "Mr. Romney's campaign calls that wishful thinking," and finally what "analysts said" which was merely that each party's base cancels out and swing voters decide the state.

    Am I alone here in having zero interest in the he-said, she-said transcribing of talking points?

    Am I alone in not giving a flying fuck what a trickle few random strangers do with their votes or why in a country of 135 million voters?

    But this is the standard boilerplate for campaign journalism in the print media.

    I don't know, maybe this is for a disinterested audience that doesn't include me.  Maybe this boilerplate is tested and true as far as what draws and keeps ordinary readers' interest.  And maybe a print reporter is given an assignment and a deadline that makes prohibitive anything more useful than this.  I can certainly imagine all that.

    But I don't see anything in this article that really teaches much of anything.

    And this is the standard from what I see.

    Thank God for the internet.  I vividly remember turning to articles that like one in my morning print Washington Post in campaign season, because that and CNN and broadcast news programs were all that existed to provide political news.  For awhile in the 90s I subscribed to Campaigns and Elections magazine, but in hindsight there was little there compared to today.

    The internet is a campaign junkie's godsend.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:52:16 PM PDT

    •  What's really irritating (4+ / 0-)

      is that The Times has the resources to dig in really deep in ways that other papers can't--and not just at the federal level. Not everyone would want to read about state legislative races and ballot measures and this and that, but The Times has a readership that is certainly in the upper echelon of the country. There are niche publications, but that needn't necessarily stop The Times from adding value.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:10:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Polls to come Saturday (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    C88, jj32, MichaelNY, LordMike, DCCyclone

    Final Ohio Newspapers Poll Ohio. (likely at midnight)
    Des Moines Register Poll.aka the Selzer Poll (7pm central)
    Both top notch polls.

    Also, probably a Billings Gazette Montana poll since they already had gov numbers.

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:52:22 PM PDT

  •  Open Thread Questions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

    1. Will Obama do better in Hawaii or Vermont?
    2. What will Romney's second best state be? Idaho, Wyoming, or Oklahoma?
    3. Which Kentucky counties will Obama win?

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:06:23 PM PDT

    •  I'll say (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      1. Hawaii.  He won Hawaii by 8 points more than Vermont in 2008.  His margin might be lower but I don't think by much considering his deep connections to that state.

      2. Seems a tough one but I'll say Idaho.  There's a big Mormon influence there and I'll bet his margin is huge there.  Could be either WY or OK though.

      3. He'll win Jefferson County (Louisville) easily.  

      Elliott County has voted for every Democratic nominee for President since the 1869 when it was incorporated.  Amazingly enough it's 99% white.  That county will go Obama.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      Outside of those two Obama didn't crack 53% in any other KY county in 2008.  He only won 8 counties.  I'd imagine he wins maybe a half dozen this year.

      •  On Elliott County, KY (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Chachy

        One of these days I hope to get around to doing a full diary on it.  Some of my family history traces back to that county.  It really is a fascinating case study.  By population % it's the second whitest county in the entire country, yet it's voted for EVERY Democratic nominee for President since the county was incorporated in 1869.  That streak is mind boggling considering how many political re-alignments have happened in that 140+ year span, yet Elliott County always goes Democratic.

        Another other odd fact is that one of my favorite country singers of all-time hails from Elliott County - Keith Whitley (RIP).

        •  SID said (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL

          that Elliott County was created by joining a cluster of Democratic precincts into a single county.  This was before mining and the UMWA made previously Republican E. KY Democratic.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:00:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  My answers: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      1. Hawaii.

      I could easily see it being Vermont, but Romney's from the region and might convince some ancestral Yankee Republicans to pull the lever for him. Meanwhile, there are plenty of factors--nonwhites, incumbency--that could help Obama in Hawaii, aside from it being his home state.

      2. Oklahoma.

      I don't know why, exactly. Maybe it's just 2008?

      3. I'm not really sure.

      A small part of me thinks there might be some conservadems that come home, more or less keeping his numbers around 41 percent in the end. But if this true, it might not flip all that many counties.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:45:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats gained ~9600 in Clark County today (9+ / 0-)

    and get over a 70K overall advantage there:

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:04:44 PM PDT

  •  Huge Dem gain in Clark County, says Ralston (4+ / 0-)
    If this is confirmed, huge finish for Dems: Ralston had been saying a few days ago Dems will have difficulty finishing with a 65K difference. To get above 70,000 essentially locks it in for Obama (it was about 80,000 in 2008), and I'd imagine guarantees a tight Senate race.
  •  any of you guys old enough to remember when Korean (0+ / 0-)

    Air Lines flight 007 was shot down? The legend says that the soviets knew who was on the plane (Georgia congressman McDonald) and is why they shot it down.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:14:45 AM PDT

    •  I certainly do remember (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      I hadn't heard the legend. What I heard is that they actually were using the airliner to spy, and that's what it was shot down - which if true, doesn't make it less of a murder, but also implicates the Korean government for deliberately putting noncombattants in harm's way. I don't know if this is true, however.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:56:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Daily Kos Map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, abgin

    Hey David, is there any plans to update the excellent Daily Kos Map so we can track the results this time around? I noticed it doesn't include 2010--it helped a lot in 2008.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:56:21 AM PDT

  •  RAND tracker narrows to Obama 49-46 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In isolation the numbers are ok, though I don't like to see movement in Romney's direction. Still, it's about the only poll which is showing him improving in the last week or so, and the methodology is untried, so we probably shouldn't read too much into it.

  •  Races I'm most interested in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, nycyoungin

    Other than of course the presidential race, I'm most interested in WI-Sen, MA-Sen, AZ-Sen, MT-Sen, ND-Sen, NV-Sen, and VA-Sen.

    At this stage, I'm tempted to predict a Democratic sweep of all those seats, but the chances are, the Republicans will probably win at least one of them, unless there's a sudden wave (and I shudder a bit to talk that way, in the aftermath of real and very destructive sudden waves in my region a few days ago). More specifically: My interest in WI-Sen is that Baldwin is so liberal, and also of course that she would be the first openly lesbian member of the Senate. I have a similar interest in MA-Sen, in that Warren is such an activist economic populist (if that's the right word). In AZ, the question mostly boils down to how many Latinos turn out and how much support Carmona gets from right-of-center Pinto Democrats, Independents, and a few Republicans. In Montana, who knows? Very close election. Heitkamp seems to be edging ahead in a few recent polls, but not all the polling is in agreement. In Nevada, we'll see if Mellman remains the only accurate poll. Virginia seems to be tilting Democratic, but I'm still not sure of the outcome until the returns come in. NE-Sen could also be very interesting.

    It's hard for me to isolate particular House races I'm most interested in, but I am still hoping a wave will wash the Democrats back into the majority, despite the lack of evidence for such a wave. In the event it occurs, people like Nate Shinagawa may be surprising winners, and he was close in a recent poll. I would really love to see Shelli Yoder win. These are the kinds of victories that could bring a Democratic majority in.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 01:56:12 AM PDT

  •  PPP polls to come out today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Washington, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:13:52 AM PDT

  •  WI-2, WI-SD-20 (0+ / 0-)

    I want to take this time to thank two candidates who have zero chance of winning for running dedicated campaigns, Republican Chad Lee in the 2nd Congressional District of Wisconsin and Democrat Tanya Lohr in the 20th State Senate District of Wisconsin. While I endorsed Mark Pocan before the Pocan/Roys Democratic primary (I live in Illinois, so I'm not a Wisconsin voter), you have to give Lee credit for running a serious general election campaign against Pocan despite having zero chance of winning. Likewise, Tanya Lohr, despite having zero chance of defeating Glenn Grothman in WI-SD-20, has run a very dedicated campaign against Grothman, and I am proud of her for doing so.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:57:37 AM PDT

    •  A Republican in Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

      Chris Fields running against Keith Ellison in MN-5 has been running an outstanding campaign. If he can keep this race within about 30, he will have given himself some serious cred for a future statewide run down the road.

      •  Tanya Lohr might be the next WI Dem chair... (0+ / 0-)

        ...she already has the honor of being the county Democratic chairwoman in Wisconsin's most Republican county (Washington County, WI), so it wouldn't be surprising at all if she were tapped to be the next Democratic Party of Wisconsin chair.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:28:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MSNBC has put out a great briefing book (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, Audrid

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...

    150 pages on the state of the election. Yeah, it has a number of dubious predictions, but I think it also looks like the beginnings of a rival to Barone's Almanac. The factoids on a lot of individual candidates are wonderful.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:18:25 AM PDT

  •  NY-24: Green candidate gets donations from (5+ / 0-)
  •  PPP Oregon: Obama 52-46 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, askew, abgin, MichaelNY

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:18:35 AM PDT

    •  Another state for Romney to try his luck in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It must be quite frustrating for him - he might end up within single digits of Obama in a dozen or more states, whereas there will probably only be a handful he wins by small margins.

    •  I'm surprised at how much OR has swung to Romney (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      At first, I thought it was just a stray poll or two, but this is like the fourth recent poll to have OR right around a 6 point margin.  Meanwhile, WA has remained pretty close to its 2008 margin.

      •  It might be a clean example of a cell phone issue (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        James Allen has calculated a near-9 point margin (Ds over Rs), with Multnomah County (Portland) under the norm (as usual)

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:11:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also, I suspect (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that these numbers might be juiced a little by turnout operations. I'm not sure how much that might apply in Oregon, but it will probably apply in Michigan.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:15:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  that's not what I've calculated (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the turnout by party is according to the secretary of state's office.  I don't take that into account in my own calculations, but I have been reporting it.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:08:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  OH Sen RAss: 48-48 (0+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:31:11 AM PDT

  •  RAss tracking: 48-48 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 06:36:16 AM PDT

  •  NYT interactive tool to visualise paths to 270 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, borodino21

    Available here and quite fun. Apparently there are 512 different permutations involving the 9 main battlegrounds.

  •  Finally back home with power and water (9+ / 0-)

    and very happy to be able to read DKE again. Are there any regulars we haven't heard from lately?

    Feel very lucky for everything I have -- definitely thinking of the people in State Island, the Shore, Breezy Point and everywhere else that's still reeling.

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:21:26 AM PDT

  •  Nate's latest column makes it clear (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kman23, MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

    that Romney can only win if the polls are statistically biased. Mere sampling error won't do it in places like Ohio, because the cumulative sample size when you add all the polls together is very large, with a correspondingly tiny MoE. He concludes with words I wish someone, sometime could beat into Wolf Blitzer:

    Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

    Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

  •  CT-Sen (6+ / 0-)

    Republicans use voter ID and make laws to suppress the vote. But according to the McMahon campaign Democrats use opinion polls to suppress the vote:

    McMahon Campaign Laughs at Voter Suppression Poll

    NORTH HAVEN, CT – The famously Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) manufactured a new poll for Congressman Chris Murphy’s campaign. Its numbers only reflect the desperation coming from national Democrats as Linda McMahon heads toward victory on November 6.

    “PPP’s newly released poll is nothing more than a desperate stunt,” McMahon campaign manager Corry Bliss said. “This poll is clearly meant to discourage Linda McMahon’s supporters...."

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:12:12 AM PDT

  •  For the concern trolls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, C88, MichaelNY

    For those of us who like to be paranoid, a tweet from Gleen Thrush:

    "Asked top Dem close to Obamaland what he was most worried about on election day. says: "the power still being out in Montgomery County (Pa )"

    I know many of us here are skeptical of the idea Sandy can hurt Dems but there you have it.

    •  It's better for the power to be out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

      in Montgomery County than in Philadelphia County.

      It's also important to remember that this could--and perhaps absolutely will--affect us as much as it affects them.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:22:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        C88, MichaelNY

        But apparently someone in the Obama campaign does find it problematic if it is not back on. Make of that what you will.

        •  Well, sure, it never helps to lose a chunk (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          of voters, but it seems as if a lot of the worrying is one-sided--as if only our voters might not be able to get out. That's largely true in a big urban county, like Philadelphia, but in Montgomery, it affects them just as it affects us, even if it hurts us more. In fact, it might even hurt them more this year than it otherwise would, given that the final result in the county might be closer than it was in 2008.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:57:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  MontCo continues to trend D & was 60% Obama in '08 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So while I'm not going to lose sleep over it, I think it certainly affects our side more than theirs.

            22, PA-15, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

            by GReen4994 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 01:33:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's true, but it's different than Philadelphia (0+ / 0-)

              County, where we can get 80 percent with almost twice as many voters.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:33:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Appears to be about 40,000 customers (6+ / 0-)

      still without power in the county.  Hope is that most will be back on line by the end of the day tomorrow.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:24:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For the optimistic (6+ / 0-)

    For those of us who can sense victory, a tweet from Ron Fournier:

    "Struck by Rove calling #sandy an Oct surprise aiding Obama. Reads like a man expecting to lose and not ready to be blamed for it."

    The meme is already starting for Republicans and someone is already starting to cover his ass with donors.

  •  Death spiral signals from Ryan "friends" (7+ / 0-)

    talking about his post-election options in the unlikely event he's not VP.

    •  Exactly right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      On the substance of the piece too, if Ryan did quit the House (I would find this morally assholeish since he didn't need to run for the House at the same time), this would be a nice pick up opportunity, wouldn't it?

    •  Also, who is leaking that Christie (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      was his first choice for VP?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:18:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt Ryan quits the House (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      While he's going to face a serious challenger in 2014 (probably John Lehman considering he has little chance of reelection), Ryan is not Palin. The only reason he'd leave Congress to do a book tour or teach would be if he lost reelection, and that's far from a sure thing.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:24:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The thinking (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The thinking is that if he comes back, he can't be a simple backbencher but if he stays Budget chairman ( and he would need a derogation to stay on because Republicans have term limits for committee chairmanships although I am sure the leadership would grant it to him), that means he would have to negotiate COMPROMISES with Obama and the Senate Dems. Politically, it seems logical that if he wants to preserve his image and run in 2016, he is better off doing something else where he does not have to take "credit"for deals.
        Now I think it would backfire badly with the DC media who are his base and would see this is as fleeing responsibilities and yada yada but I am sure with a just a little bit of spin the conservative base will accept it and not mind and he will be as pure as driven snow for a run in 2016.

        •  The conservative base isn't the problem. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The problem with not being in Congress is that he risks a chance of becoming less and less relevant. If his goal is to run for president, taking four years off might be too much. If he tries this, I'd guess it'd only be for two years--long enough to be absent from the DC nonsense, but short enough to still be fresh in the minds of the voters.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:45:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am not disagreeing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Although I believe Paul Ryan's status is now set enough that he can afford to be out of daily combat and instead play wise man and criticize from sidelines.
            It didn't hurt Romney, did it? Intervening when they see an occasion to make headlines but staying away from having to answer every question and every vote that being in Congress forces him to.
            I would not ADVISE him to do it but I think that type of thinking is not so implausible that it couldn't cross his mind.
            I personally think that he won't do it because it would be too transparently an attempt to preserve his reputation as a wonk and DC media who adore him would call him out on shying from taking responsibilities. But, again, I can see why the option is on the table.

      •  Would Zerban have a chance to come back (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy, MichaelNY

        if he does well this year?

        I still can't over the fact that this district hasn't been targeted more effectively in the past.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:42:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If he makes it close (0+ / 0-)

          he'd probably get enough name recognition to challenge Ryan again. The way I see it, there are basically three ways to take down Ryan:

          1. Run up the margins in Racine, Kenosha, and Janesville proper and their immediate suburbs. All three are Rust Belt industrial towns, so we'd want a blue-collar candidate who could run a populist campaign and not ruffle the feathers of devout Catholics. This also implies a strong effort to turn out minorities, particularly Latinos, in Racine and Kenosha. All Racine and Kenosha-based state legislators would use this strategy.

          2. Hold down Ryan's margins (or win outright) in the suburban areas outside the Circle of Ignorance, meaning Greendale, Oak Creek, and all suburban areas in Kenosha and Walworth counties. A businessman candidate would be best for these areas, and Zerban qualifies, but not if he runs left to appease his donors. These suburbs are still light red, not purple, and won't like a True Progressive.

          3. Hold down Ryan's margins (or win outright) in the rural areas and dairy towns in Walworth and Rock Counties, while partially accomplishing #1 and #2. As with #2, this involves winning mildly conservative voters, and as with #1 it involves turning out blue-collar whites and Latinos (who in Walworth are essentially farmworkers). Rep. Jorgensen would use this strategy, though he'd be at least mildly carpetbagging (he's favored in a new Assembly district mostly located in Rock County).

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:36:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  PPP MI Pres: Obama 52-46 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Another one closer than I'd like or expect, but still not close enough to be any good to Romney. But this is starting to make a case for the supposedly ultra-close popular vote.

    •  Romney seems to have recovered a bit in MI from (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      his September lows, but before the campaign started, if you told me we'd win the light blue state where his father was a very popular governor by 6 points, I'd have been perfectly happy.

    •  Isn't that the same result they had the (0+ / 0-)

      other day for HCAN?

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:58:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Regarding narrow margins (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's quite possible that Obama could win 12 states by under 10% (CO, NV, MN, IA, MI, PA, FL, VA, OH, WI, OR, NH) while Romney only has 1 (NC). That kind of large imbalance could lay the ground for a PV/EV split.    

      •  Comparing to Gore and Kerry: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        C88

        Gore won MI by 5 and won the popular vote by 0.5%
        Kerry won MI by 3 and lost the popular vote by 3%.

        Both of these metrics are in line with a 0-1% popular vote win for Obama.

        22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

        by liberal intellectual on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:02:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  On the other hand, he's bound to do better (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy, askew

        than Kerry in North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia, and also probably in Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, and a few other states. That's not to say he will win them, only that he could easily do a few points better and have this add many votes, given the sizes of the states in question.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:17:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  OK I tried a quick back-of-the-envelope calc (0+ / 0-)

          Separating states into 3 categories: those where there's a reasonable chance of Obama losing big, 10+ points, those where he might lose about enough to take him to a PV tie, and those where he will probably do relatively well, say losing around 3 points on average. With roughly the following list, which I think is not totally absurd, you could get a rough PV tie (EVs in the first and third group more or less match) while Obama has a comfortable EV win.

          So here goes:
          1. Big loss (-10+): HI, MA, IL, CA, CT, MI, OR, WI, IN, MO, ND, WV, UT, ID, MT, KS (181 EVs)

          2. Middling loss (av -7): DC, VT, RI, DE, PA, NH, IA, NV, CO, GA, MS, NE, AR, AK, OK, WY, SC, SD, LA

          3. Small loss (av -3): NY, MD, ME, WA, NJ, NM, FL, MN, VA, NC, AZ, TX, TN, KY, OH (189 EVs)

          Of course, this is highly speculative and I'm not by any means presenting this as a forecast of what will happen. I'm just trying to see if there's avaguely credible way of aligning the national and swing state data.
                           

          •  I think GA will be a small loss state, and CA (0+ / 0-)

            may as well. That would throw the balance off pretty good. I guess we'll see what happens...

            •  TBH I do too (0+ / 0-)

              but Obama more or less has to do badly in one of the big states for this scenario to look vaguely plausible, and there have been at least some polls in CA showing him doing badly. NY, for instance, has looked consistently good for Obama so I can't believe in an underperformance there.

            •  Why do you think Obama will suffer in California? (0+ / 0-)

              I've seen little to no indication there will be a big change from 2008.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:37:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Polls have shown a much closer race in CA (0+ / 0-)

                Granted, anything other than a massive blowout would seem closer. He is in no risk of losing the state, but a 15 point win is realistic.

                •  I don't buy it (0+ / 0-)

                  Would not put my money down on it but I don't see him having such a huge margin shrink. If only by demographic growth he should be able to keep in CA a lot of what he would lose from swing voters.

                •   RCP average in CA is O +13.8 (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  OGGoldy

                  Margin 4 years ago was 24.0.

                  •  The final average in 2008 (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    sacman701

                    Was interestingly RIGHT on the money (RCP 24% vs real life 24.4%) BUT there were also a lot more polls of California taken in October than there have been this year. In particular, last polls of CA in the average as listed this year were taken mid-october - not the best time for Obama.
                    I bet he erodes a bit from 2008  but his margin is around 20.

                    •  I can't emphasize this enough: (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      The Caped Composer

                      Romney will not match Bush's 2004 numbers with nonwhites. That alone will give Obama more of an edge.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:15:24 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think it will be that close. (0+ / 0-)

                  Winning by as much as he did in 2008 seems unlikely, but compare the 2004 and 2008 exit polls. I believe it's safe to say that Bush over-performed with nonwhites. You could probably say the same with whites for Obama in 2008, but do we really expect him to fall below 46-47 percent, which is what Kerry and McCain got in the state? I don't. I also don't expect much, if any, fall off with nonwhites.

                  The other thing to consider is that the state is becoming less white, and that might be reflected in turnout.

                  If his floor with whites in the state is, say, 46 percent, and his nonwhites hold up, what might his total look like? I'll assume a 62/10/19/6/3 electorate and give Obama a slit of 46/94/70/60/53. It would be 56.41 percent. That might give you close to a 15-point margin.

                  But if you merely have him split whites, that should give him about 2.5 more points. That's what I think will happen. I also think he will hold up better with nonwhites, which should pad his numbers by another one point or two.

                  All in all, I expect him to win the state by about 20 points. I think he'll do even better in New York. Those two things alone might prevent him from winning the popular vote.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:07:11 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't make sense (0+ / 0-)

        How does Obama winning FL or VA by under 10% mean fewer votes than Romney winning those states by under 10%?

        I understand what you're trying to say but winning narrowly clearly means more votes that losing closly.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

        by kman23 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:25:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think that is the case. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      marieperoy

      The only way I see the popular vote being all that close is if the Electoral College results are very close. They could be, but they probably won't be.

      I might try to put this in a spreadsheet to map out the numbers a little more closely, but for now, consider 2004 as a starting point. Bush won a very solid victory in the popular vote, except that this was aided in large part by huge victories in the biggest states. He came within single digits in California; kept Kerry under 20 percent in New York; won Texas by 20 and got close to that in Georgia; won Ohio and Florida and came close in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey; came closer than usual in Connecticut and Maryland; and won pretty big in Virginia and North Carolina.

      In addition to his excellent turnout operation and incumbency, he did extremely well with nonwhites. I just don't see that happening this year. Take California, for instance. If Kerry had gotten, say, 58 percent of the vote instead of 54.31 percent, this would have given him  over 430,000 extra votes.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:11:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I do find a contradiction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        with an idea that most swing states would break to Obama and NPV/EC are split.
        I can imagine a scenario if Obama wins the bare minimum (OH IA WI) but if states like FL or VA break for him, I dont see a split happening.

      •  Agree, BUT: (0+ / 0-)

        I think it is quite likely that Romney will be leading the popular vote by the end of Tuesday, even if Obama comfortably wins the EV (at around 300 EVs) because of the importance CA, WA, and OR (and especially CA and WA) have to the final popular vote total Obama will get - and that a large portion of this vote won't be fully known for several weeks.

        •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          I must be forgetting how long it takes for those Western states to report final results. How long do we usually wait? And why wouldn't this affect Romney in the same way it would affect Obama?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:51:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It wasn't too long until we knew that Gore won the (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          uclabruin18, bythesea, MichaelNY

          popular vote.  Unless we're talking a 0.1-0.2% margin here, we should know if Obama is winning the popular vote by the wee hours of Wednesday morning on the East Coast, if not earlier.

    •  Michigan, Oregon, Connecticut, Massachusetts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      are the states where it's seemed like Obama's had among the most disproportionate drops from 2008, and PPP is doing them more or less in order for whatever reason.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:51:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The full results are posted now. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Stabenow is leading 55% to 42%.

      The EM Law, collective bargaining, and renewable energy proposals are all losing.

      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    •  so same as Oregon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      which voted the same as Michigan in 2008.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:09:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY 24 Siena: 45-45 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    With the Green getting 8.

    http://www.syracuse.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:15:33 AM PDT

  •  Zogby/Newsmax tracker: Obama 48-46 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin

    Same as yesterday

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:19:51 AM PDT

  •  Grove/PNA - Obama: IA +3, OH +4, WI +6 (7+ / 0-)

    http://usaction.org/...

    In Iowa, President Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 47 to 44 percent. In Ohio, Obama leads 49 to 45 percent. And in Wisconsin, Obama leads 48 to 42 percent.
  •  Reuters Ipsos tracker: Obama 47-46 (5+ / 0-)

    Obama up 1 from yesterday.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:34:11 AM PDT

  •  How was Berkely doing with independents in (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    that that Mellman poll?  Anyone know?

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:45:09 AM PDT

  •  WAA polls on WI, OH, VA (5+ / 0-)

    WI: 52-45
    OH: 50-46
    VA: 49-48

    Obama leads in all states.

    I think this was posted yesterday, but there was some confusion whether these polls were new or not. They are(or were yesterday), taken 10/30-11/1.

    I think RCP didnt add them until today, perhaps for the same reason.

    VA and OH seem to fit the polling averages of the race, WI shows a little better margin for the president.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but all polls seemed to show high-ish numbers for third party candidates.

    Link

  •  Gallup Economic Confidence Index hits -10 today, (6+ / 0-)

    which is an all time high for their Index, which started in January 2008.

    •  I have said it before and will say it again (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, jj32, bfen, MichaelNY

      EVERYTHING that has happened in this race traces back to economic indicators and even what seemed strange at first was later explained by economic numbers revisions.
      The fundamentals are still king, no matter how interested we are about daily political combat.
      And most political science models show that with the economic numbers as they are, obama should win national popular vote by around 2points. Because I am optimistic I will say demographics could add an extra one. That's my official prediction

    •  That's another inconsistency with Gallup (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Their horse race numbers dont really matchup with their economic numbers.

      Obama would be winning easily with 7.0% unemployment.  

      •  Social bias (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Americans are ashamed of being poor, no one wants to tell Gallup they're unemployed. If a full 7% report themselves as unemployed in Gallup's sample, the real unemployed % in Gallup's sample is probably higher than the official national number.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:08:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That theory (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          wouldn't explain the trends though. If people don't like claiming they're poor or unemployed, why would they be less likely to do so now than, say, a year ago?

          •  Two reasons (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            1). Fewer people are unemployed then a year ago. No matter how many people would be really unemployed in Gallup's sample vs. how many say they are, the percentage should decline at the same rate as the national number.

            2). Social bias. A year ago people rated themselves as being less optimistic about the economy. When people believed that other people believed that the economy was bad. then it wasn't so bad to admit they were unemployed, because, hey, who didn't know someone who had lost their job? They didn't feel like they were guilty of anything. As we get farther from the original crash, that sentiment fades. The people who didn't lose their jobs readjust and become desensitized again to the poor. We here stories about jobs being created and rates going down. Social pressure against being unemployed increases. If Gallup's rate has decreased faster than the national rate, this would explain it.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 02:10:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Heavy turnout in Hillsborough County, FL today (8+ / 0-)

    Most polling locations have over a 45 minute wait. Turnout for all registered voters in the county is now about 40%, with Democrats holding a 15,000 vote edge (early voting and mail in combined). We'll see what the margins are after today (this is the last day of early voting, although I believe you can still fill out mail-in ballots and turn them in, in person, by elections day).

    Was also visited this morning by Obama canvassers in Tampa Palms (New Tampa area), told them me and my boyfriend have already early voted all Dem and got out friends and family to also do so.

    •  Hillsborough will be a big one (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Obama netted 33K votes here in 2008 and Bush gained about the same in 2004 (30K).  Pinellas also seems to be a county where Obama will probably net votes too.  Bush narrowly carried it in 2004 and Gore actually won it by 14K in 2000.  

      The rest depends on Miami turnout and keeping Romney on his toes in the Panhandle.

      •  I'm confident (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        that blue dog areas of FL-02 (Wakulla, Franklin, Madison, Jefferson) will vote for Obama in larger margins than they did in 2008. The dissatisfaction with Scott is high, and Sink actually won those Panhandle counties in 2010. McCain was a respected veteran, while Mitt Romney embodies what FL-02 residents dislike. Also, if Al Lawson wins or comes close, I think Obama can actually win a plurality or slim majority in this district.

        This will help to keep margins down in the Panhandle. The key is getting out voters in Jacksonville to keep Romney margins down in that part of the state. If we do that, keep I-4 about even, and turnout SoFla, then Obama will win by 1-3%

  •  I'm looking through old (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bfen, KingofSpades

    "Almanacs of American Politics".

    Fun fact: Nixon and Wallace got 56% of the vote in Harold Ford Sr.'s 1968 TN-08, and four years later Nixon won by 14 points (meaning the seat was only about D+5).  

    Ford, actually, barely won in 1974(!):

    In 1974, after two terms in the Tennessee legislature, he ran for the Democratic nomination for the Memphis-based 8th U.S. Congressional district, easily beating three opponents.[2] He faced four-term Republican incumbent Dan Kuykendall in the general election. At that time, the district still had a white majority, though the 1970 round of redistricting by the Tennessee legislature had redrawn the 8th to include more African-American voters.[2] Ford ran on a bipartisan platform emphasizing economic development to attract both black and white voters.[2] He waged a large and well organized get-out-the-vote campaign using, paid workers, volunteers and his own considerable energy, and received support from black churches and celebrities.[2] He was also able to take advantage of post Watergate dissatisfaction with the Republican Party.[2] When the votes were first counted it looked like Kuykendall had eked out a narrow victory—but Ford ultimately won by 744 votes after contesting the original count.[2]
    As Barone says, Memphis had "voting patterns more racially polarized than in any other major American city".

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:12:51 AM PDT

  •  In order to buy OR and MI at 52-46 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I have to buy 1 of 2 possibilities: either both are seeing their PVI drop, or Obama will lose the popular vote.

    Both are D+4 states.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 11:18:13 AM PDT

    •  Its probably 1 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It helps explain Obama's polling in OH, VA, NC, etc.

      •  problem: Oregon is apparently trending Democratic (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        therefore I can't buy #1.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:23:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But isn't Romney a better fit than McCain (0+ / 0-)

          for the Portland suburbs? If Oregon's trend is slight enough, its PVI could drop due to candidate factors.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:40:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  no, McCain was a much better fit for Oregon (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, MichaelNY

            Oregon likes the "mavericky" Republicans.  Romney from 2002 might have been a good fit.  Romney 4.0 is not.  Romney is running much further to the right than Chris Dudley did 2 years ago, and Dudley even lost the wealthy and ancestrally Republican Lake Oswego, where Dudley lives, not to mention Washington County, which Kulogoski lost in 2002 while doing slightly better statewide.

            McCain's only problem was that Obama was a better fit.  Against anyone else McCain could have done much better.  Against Gore in 2000 McCain would have won Oregon by a bigger margin than Gore beat Bush.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:44:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  One thing I wondered (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      there was discussion about Gore and the PV in 2000. It seems like Obama will do at least as well as Gore if not in many states. OR, being one of them.

      So I wonder how much more unfavorable the electorate would have to be, for Obama to lose the popular vote.  

    •  I think you can rule out the second option (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      In my numbers, OR is all the last months between D+3 and D+2. I think there is too much Republican poll in Oregon. Too much SUSA poll.

      In my numbers, MI is all the last months between D+3 and D+1. The state has strong Republican poll attacks by months.

      My stimations never had Obama under +1.5%.

      PS: I glad to see finally better polls for Avakian )

  •  Good point from Benjy Sarlin (8+ / 0-)
    In case, people dont know. At Obama event, people boo when the president mentions Romney, and he responds "Dont boo, vote." At one event, he added, "voting is the best revenge." And the right wing has been freaking out about that.

    I dont want to get overconfident, but it doesnt seem like a winning campaign does this with 3-4 days left.

    •  Especially odd (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      Since everyone - Democrat-leaning pundits included - said his revamped closing argument that he unveiled yesterday was really really good. And now he chooses to go with this instead
      Their tendency to get distracted by shiny objects especially when they have something much better going will be one of the reasons they lost.

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