IMHO -There are 3 indicators to consider :
1) Consumer confidence at its highest
2) 54% or 66% think ,he will win
3) a strong closing week considering his leardership during the ongoing disaster
What is left is the turnout.I think you should be focusing now on GOTV!
You have the ''numbers'' and the final ''arguments''.....just go get them!
My prediction : A very comfortable victory ! GOTV!