I've long invested in the idea of redistricting reform and hope to have some sort of national unilateral disarmament. But more so, I've wanted to see what would happen if it was implemented nationwide. Would the dems be better off or would it be close to a wash? I will start out first by showing the eleven state region of New England and the Middle Atlantic, which amounts to 87 seats. If the picture is too big, the link is posted above the pictures for a better view
1 Blue
2 Green
3 Dark Magenta
4 Red
5 Gold
6 Teal
7 Dark Gray
8 Slate Blue
9 Cyan
10 Deep Pink
11 Chartreuse
12 Cornflower Blue
13 Dark Salmon
14 Olive
15 Dark Orange
16 Lime
17 DarkSlateBlue
18 Yellow
19 Yellow Green
20 Pink
21 Maroon
22 Sienna
23 Aquamarine
24 Indigo
25 PaleVioletRed
26 Gray
27 Spring Green
Connecticut
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District 1
PVI: D+14.5
Race: 60.8 Wh, 17.7 Hisp, 14.8 Bl, 4.5 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be John Larson's district and is the safest democrat district in the state.
CT 2
PVI: D+6.8
Race: 83.4 Wh, 6.9 Hisp, 4.0 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is Courtney's district. Safe for him, but if he retires a Simmons -esque republican could win it.
CT 3
PVI: D+10
Race: 68.3 Wh, 13.8 Hisp, 12.1 Bl, 3.8 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is Rosa DeLauro's seat. Safe D
CT 4
PVI: D+6.6
Race: 64.7 Wh, 17.4 Hisp, 11.2 Bl, 4.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is Jim Himes district. He had a close race in 2010 but he should be OK.
CT 5
PVI: D+0.7
Race: 79.1 Wh, 11.2 Hisp, 4.7 Bl, 2.8 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This was Chris Murphy's district. He's vacating it to run for the senate. This is a marginal seat. Rohraback would probably win this district.
Maine
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ME 1
PVI: D+8.2
Race: 93.4 Wh, 1.8 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.5 Hisp, 1.4 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is the Pingree district. She should be somewhat safe here, but if she keeps under performing, I'd support primarying her.
ME 2
PVI: D+1.9
Race: 95.4 Wh, 1.4 Oth, 1.1 Hisp, 0.9 Nat, 0.7 Asn, 0.5 Bl
Comments: This is Michaud's district. He should be fine here, but the district could go republican if he retires.
Maryland
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MD 1
PVI: R+11.6
Race: 78.1 Wh, 14.3 Bl, 3.7 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.7 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This would be the Andy Harris district. This district I'm guessing is kind of like the coastal carolinas only with a smaller black population. There are still some demosaurs out here, but its a pretty safe republican district, even for Harris.
MD 2
PVI: D+3.7
Race: 60.7 Wh, 27.2 Bl, 5.0 Asn, 4.5 Hisp, 2.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: District belongs to Ruppersberger. Blacks moving into Baltimore County helps his incumbency.
MD 3
PVI: D+5.5
Race: 57.1 Wh, 19.0 Bl, 11.0 Asn, 9.4 Hisp, 3.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Sarbanes represents some of this area, but doesn't live here. He could carpetbag and run in this district, but would be vulnerable to a primary challenge (and maybe a tough GE)
MD 4
PVI: D+5.3
Race: 60.3 Wh, 29.3 Bl, 4.9 Hisp, 2.7 Asn, 2.6 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: Steny Hoyer represents much of this area. He actually represented the 5th (under this map) but decided to carpetbag to the 4th (under this map) in 92.
MD 5
PVI: D+35.8
Race: 61.7 Bl, 16.7 Hisp, 15.1 Wh, 4.0 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Anyone here find it interesting how this district was repped by a republican as late as the early 70s? Safe D.
MD 6
PVI: R+9.6
Race: 81.2 Wh, 7.5 Bl, 5.2 Hisp, 3.8 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: The conservative curmudgeon would be safe here but obviously would retire later in the cycle.
MD 7
PVI: D+29.9
Race: 56.8 Bl, 34.3 Wh, 4.1 Hisp, 2.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is Cummings district. Safe Dem obviously.
MD 8
PVI: D+20.9
Race: 50.6 Wh, 16.7 Hisp, 16.3 Bl, 13.2 Asn, 2.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is the Van Hollen district. Safe D.
Massachusetts
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MA 1
PVI: D+16.6
Race: 74.9 Wh, 14.9 Hisp, 5.8 Bl, 2.4 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: John Olver is retiring and since it takes in all of Springfield, its possible that it lures in Dick Neal since its a safe district and where Neal's home base is. He could very well be a future Ways and Means chairman. Safe D
MA 2
PVI: D+4.1
Race: 80.9 Wh, 9.9 Hisp, 3.9 Bl, 3.2 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: It depends if Neal decides to run here or not. If he runs here, well he runs here then. If not, its possible McGovern runs here since he's from Worcestor.
MA 3
PVI: D+3.2
Race: 88.9 Wh, 3.6 Hisp, 3.3 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 2.0 Bl, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This takes in some of McGovern's district but he doesn't live here. It largely depends what Neal would do whether or not McGovern runs here or in the 2nd.
MA 4
PVI: D+9.3
Race: 76.9 Wh, 8.1 Bl, 6.6 Asn, 4.2 Hisp, 4.0 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is Barney Frank's seat, who is retiring. He had a close call in 2010, but I would say this is close to a safe seat.
MA 5
PVI: D+6
Race: 77.6 Wh, 8.9 Asn, 7.6 Hisp, 3.0 Oth, 2.8 Bl, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a "close but no cigar" district for the GOP. Niki Tsongas, who represents this district, should be OK, but would/will probably retire later in the decade.
MA 6
PVI: D+6.4
Race: 77.2 Wh, 15.5 Hisp, 2.9 Asn, 2.6 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is John Tierney's district but he could easily lose this seat to a moderate pub like Tisei.
MA 7
PVI: D+17.4
Race: 69.3 Wh, 11.4 Hisp, 9.1 Asn, 6.6 Bl, 3.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Both Ed Markey and Mike Capuano live in this district. Not sure whether or not Markey would retire or if there would be a primary between the two of them
MA 8
PVI: D+3.5
Race: 89.3 Wh, 3.8 Hisp, 3.4 Oth, 2.1 Bl, 1.0 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: In the south, democrats will easily win an R+3 district. I'm not sure why the same can't be said for this seat. Keating should be safe here, but a republican could still win this if he retires.
MA 9
PVI: D+23.1
Race: 50.1 Wh, 20.0 Bl, 15.3 Hisp, 10.6 Asn, 3.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Stephen Lynch's district. Obviously safe democrat.
New Hampshire
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NH 1
PVI: R+0.7
Race: 92.9 Wh, 2.5 Hisp, 2.0 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 1.0 Bl, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is a marginal district. Guinta could potentially lose, but I don't want CSP running here.
NH 2
PVI: D+3.1
Race: 91.7 Wh, 3.1 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 1.1 Bl, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Also a marginal district. Bass's moderate reputation/voting record definitely helps here.
New Jersey
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NJ 1
PVI: D+10.5
Race: 66.7 Wh, 15.4 Bl, 11.4 Hisp, 4.6 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: this district actually was republican until 1975, but is now a safe democrat district and will continue to be barring Rob Andrews becoming William Jefferson II.
NJ 2
PVI: D+1.5
Race: 66.3 Wh, 14.5 Hisp, 13.4 Bl, 3.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: LoBiondo is a good moderate pub who is safe in this district, but it could be won if he retires. Dems if I recall held this seat from 75-94.
NJ 3
PVI: R+2.3
Race: 77.7 Wh, 9.8 Bl, 7.9 Hisp, 2.7 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Runyan seems to be a bright bulb compared to the other athletes that've been in congress (Kemp, Largent etc). He should be safe here.
NJ 4
PVI: D+2.2
Race: 65.3 Wh, 12.4 Bl, 11.5 Hisp, 9.0 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Chris Smith's seat got a lot more hostile, but he's represented all this area before and should be ok. It could go dem if he retires though. Smith would probably be a dem in Georgia anyways.
NJ 5
PVI: D+15.4
Race: 38.0 Hisp, 34.9 Wh, 14.9 Asn, 9.9 Bl, 2.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is the Sires district. Safe for any democrat.
NJ 6
PVI: R+3.8
Race: 70.5 Wh, 14.8 Hisp, 7.2 Bl, 5.7 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: With Smith's district getting less republican, Pallone's district becomes more republican. He's obviously too far to the left for this seat, but he did represent this area in his first two terms and he would be favored if they run that moon-bat Little against him.
NJ 7
PVI: D+7
Race: 51.8 Wh, 15.8 Hisp, 15.1 Bl, 15.1 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This district is sort of the upper limit of the ability to elect a dem. Lance could be the next Mark Kirk maybe.
NJ 8
PVI: D+8.1
Race: 51.7 Wh, 27.5 Hisp, 12.6 Bl, 6.4 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is Pascrell's district. Safe Dem.
NJ 9
PVI: D+1.2
Race: 62.9 Wh, 15.7 Hisp, 13.6 Asn, 6.0 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Incumbency gives Rothman the edge here but he could lose it in a wave and the district has a 50/50 chance of going pub if he retires.
NJ 10
PVI: D+31
Race: 42.3 Bl, 33.3 Hisp, 18.7 Wh, 3.1 Asn, 2.4 Oth. 0.2 Nat
Comments: This was Payne's seat and I think his son is running here. Safe D of course.'
NJ 11
PVI: R+10.3
Race: 79.3 Wh, 10.0 Hisp, 6.6 Asn, 2.5 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a gamble. Drawing an uber GOP district for the hope that a pub I don't like will lose a primary to another. The Frelinghuysen name is gold in New Jersey so he could probably take out Garrett. My hope is that he loses to Frelinghuysen and then moves to Texas to work with DeVore so CA and NJ will both be cleansed.
NJ 12
PVI: R+0.5
Race: 66.0 Wh, 13.1 Asn, 12.0 Hisp, 6.9 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Holt's district loses a lot of dem areas to Lance and Smith and takes in a lot of pub areas from Lance. Holt is quite liberal (lifetime ADA of 94) so he could have a tough time here.
New York
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NY 1
PVI: R+1.4
Race: 78.0 Wh, 12.6 Hisp, 4.5 Bl, 3.2 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Pretty much the same as the current NY 1. This will always be a marginal district and Bishop most years will be held below 60%.
NY 2
PVI: R+0.2
Race: 65.6 Wh, 19.9 Hisp, 9.2 Bl, 3.6 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The district is moved a few points right. It remains to be seen whether Israel's national prominence hurts him here.
NY 3
PVI: R+0.9
Race: 70.2 Wh, 14.4 Hisp, 7.6 Bl, 6.2 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This district moves a few points to the left but its nothing Peter King can't handle.
NY 4
PVI: D+2.6
Race: 60.2 Wh, 15.2 Hisp, 12.8 Bl, 9.9 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: McCarthy's seat moves somewhat to the right but she's not overly liberal and should be safe here. It could go pub when she retires though.
NY 5
PVI: D+17.2
Race: 35.2 Asn, 27.3 Wh, 24.5 Hisp, 8.7 Bl, 4.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: Gary Ackerman, who is retiring, represents this district. This is a safe democratic district and one of the most asian districts in the country.
NY 6
PVI: D+33.2
Race: 47.5 Bl, 24.2 Hisp, 12.8 Wh, 8.8 Asn, 6.2 Oth, 0.6 Nat
Comments: This is Meeks' district. Safe D.
NY 7
PVI: D+26.3
Race: 39.8 Hisp, 26.9 Bl, 21.2 Wh, 9.8 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is either an open seat or Crowley runs here. Regardless Safe D.
NY 8
PVI: D+20.8
Race: 39.9 Hisp, 33.5 Wh, 20.3 Asn, 3.9 Bl, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: see District 7.
NY 9
PVI: R+2.3
Race: 61.2 Wh, 16.7 Asn, 12.0 Hisp, 8.3 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is an open seat but it does contain a lot of the Turner district. Had this map been implemented, he may not have retired.
NY 10
PVI: D+42.5
Race: 76.7 Bl, 12.8 Hisp, 6.6 Wh, 2.0 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is Clarke's district. Safe D, obviously.
NY 11
PVI: D+37.2
Race: 37.1 Wh, 31.8 Hisp, 20.5 Bl, 8.1 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is a combination between very liberal jews, and random minority precincts. This is basically an amalgamation of the Towns and Velazquez district. Since Towns is retiring, Velazquez has this safe seat to herself.
NY 12
PVI: R+4.3
Race: 61.0 Wh, 17.0 Hisp, 13.7 Asn, 6.6 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is the Grimm district. He appears to be corrupt, but he still seems to be a likely winner in 2012.
NY 13
PVI: D+30
Race: 61.8 Wh, 18.3 Asn, 12.8 Hisp, 4.5 Bl, 2.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is Nadler's district which is safe democrat.
NY 14
PVI: D+34.9
Race: 40.3 Wh, 28.4 Hisp, 22.9 Bl, 6.0 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is Maloney's district. Safe D.
NY 15
PVI: D+40.1
Race: 66.9 Hisp, 24.3 Bl, 5.8 Wh, 1.6 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is an amalgamation of the Serrano and Rangel districts. Rangel I hope would have the decency to retire.
NY 16
PVI: D+16.3
Race: 40.5 Wh, 30.7 Hisp, 21.0 Bl, 5.4 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: Engel's district loses a lot of the Bronx and becomes more Westchester based. Still a safe democrat district.
NY 17
PVI: D+4
Race: 69.4 Wh, 17.0 Hisp, 6.9 Bl, 4.9 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: The northward move of Engel's district comes at Lowey's expense. Hayworth actually lives here too, but she likely runs in the 18th. This would probably be a lean D seat.
NY 18
PVI: R+1.2
Race: 67.3 Wh, 16.8 Hisp, 9.9 Bl, 4.0 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is similar to the old Ben Gilman district and one where Hayworth would run. Hayworth, like King, is slightly to the right of your average NY pub but to the left of the national party. She should be a slight favorite here.
NY 19
PVI: D+7.3
Race: 77.9 Wh, 9.2 Bl, 6.5 Hisp, 3.4 Asn, 2.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is an albany based seat. Albany is one of the more ancestrally dem areas of all of upstate and there are a lot of hard d voters here. Paul Tonko, who gave up promising assembly career to run for congress, is safe.
NY 20
PVI: R+0.1
Race: 88.4 Wh, 4.1 Hisp, 4.0 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the district that used to elect GBH Solomon who was a reactionary right winger. If he were still in office (he's dead but hypothetically), he would have trouble here. But Gibson is one of the least conservative republicans in the house so he would be a mild favorite in this district. This district, oddly enough, votes a lot differently than neighboring western Massachusetts and Vermont.
NY 21
PVI: R+2.1
Race: 91.7 Wh, 2.7 Hisp, 2.5 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.9 Nat, 0.8 Asn
Comments: This is a very ancestrally republican seat and Owens will probably always have tough races. Owens is already in his 60s and the seat will almost certainly flip once he retires.
NY 22
PVI: D+3.2
Race: 81.4 Wh, 8.7 Bl, 4.1 Hisp, 3.0 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.6 Nat
Comments: This is a central NY district taking in some of Oneida county and linking it to Syracuse. I'm not sure if Hanna lives here or not. Regardless, most of this seat is from the old 25th. From what I gather, this district will elect a republican, but Buerkle is the wrong type of republican for this seat.
NY 23
PVI: D+0.3
Race: 88.0 Wh, 4.0 Hisp, 3.2 Bl, 2.7 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This district is that of Maurice Hinchey, who is retiring. My guess is that Hanna slides in here and wins this district easily.
NY 24
PVI: D+5.7
Race: 72.2 Wh, 14.8 Bl, 7.4 Hisp, 3.3 Asn, 2.0 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is a Rochester based seat and similar to the 1990s NY 28. Slaughter is quite old and will likely retire in the next cycle or two. A republican can win this district, but it won't be easy.
NY 25
PVI: R+5.9
Race: 90.2 Wh, 4.0 Bl, 2.6 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.6 Nat
Comments: This district looks to be an amalgamation of the old LaFalce and Horton districts. It is mostly rural GOP areas around Lake Ontario. My guess is that Hochul runs here. It remains to be seen whether she can win this for a full term.
NY 26
PVI: D+9.6
Race: 73.2 Wh, 16.2 Bl, 5.4 Hisp, 3.0 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.4 Nat
Comments: This is the most democratic district in upstate New York. This is a safe district for Higgins or any democrat.
NY 27
PVI: R+8.1
Race: 91.8 Wh, 2.7 Hisp, 2.4 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.8 Nat
Comments: This is probably the most conservative district in the entire state and culturally similar to the "Pennsylvania T". Reed (I think that's his name) should be safe for the decade in this district.
Pennsylvania
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PA 1
PVI: D+18.7
Race: 49.5 Wh, 20.2 Bl, 20.0 Hisp, 8.0 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This is the Brady district. Safe Democrat.
PA 2
PVI: D+41.6
Race: 69.8 Bl, 17.2 Wh, 6.0 Hisp, 4.5 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: Fattah represents this district. Safe democrat.
PA 3
PVI: R+2.1
Race: 90.4 Wh, 5.2 Bl, 2.0 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is a conservadem district, but the pub here (Kelly I think?) should be ok
PA 4
PVI: R+11
Race 87.7 Wh, 5.0 Hisp, 4.2 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is the Platts district. He's retiring and whoever wins the R nomination is safe here.
PA 5
PVI: R+8.5
Race: 94.4 Wh, 1.7 Bl, 1.4 Asn, 1.4 Asn, 1.0 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: I can't remember the name of the pub representing this district, but it's a safe one.
PA 6
PVI: R+0.7
Race: 81.8 Wh, 10.8 Hisp, 4.0 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: I think Gerlach lives here. He would get a boost here and would probably be safe.
PA 7
PVI: D+5.8
Race: 74.1 Wh, 16.2 Bl, 4.8 Asn, 3.2 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Meehan would be vulnerable in this district, but he could still hold it a la Mark Kirk.
PA 8
PVI: D+0.8
Race: 86.6 Wh, 4.3 Asn, 4.1 Hisp, 3.5 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is considerably less democrat than the other suburban Philadelphia districts. Fitzpatrick would definitely win in 2012 but could potentially be vulnerable to a less liberal challenger.
PA 9
PVI: R+14.2
Race: 93.7 Wh, 2.6 Bl, 1.8 Hisp, 0.6 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: All of this district (except the western part) has been republican since the time of Lincoln. Even if Critz was to run against Shuster, this would be Safe R.
PA 10
PVI: R+3
Race: 88.5 Wh, 4.8 Hisp, 4.1 Bl, 1.3 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.2 Nat
Comments: This district is considerably less pub than the old PA 10, but the pub here (can't remember his name) should be fine. This district does have a history of corrupt pubs though. McDade was indicted for racketeering (although not convicted) and Sherwood lost his seat because of some kind of alleged assault case.
PA 11
PVI: R+2.7
Race: 89.8 Wh, 5.1 Hisp, 3.1 Bl, 1.0 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This district is a lot safer than Barletta (compared to the 03-12 PA 11). His background is probably a perfect fit for this district. Likely R.
PA 12
PVI: R+12.5
Race: 94.5 Wh, 1.9 Bl, 1.5 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 1.0 Hisp, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Eh, Altmire just got majorly f---ed here. He would probably retire under this map and the seat would then go to a pub (but hopefully not Hart).
PA 13
PVI: D+8.7
Race: 77.0 Wh, 9.3 Bl, 7.2 Asn, 4.6 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Schwartz is a garden variety democrat and this district is safe for her, or whoever replaces here should she retire.
PA 14
PVI: D+13
Race: 72.0 Wh, 21.1 Bl, 2.7 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 1.8 Hisp, 0.2 Nat
Comments: The safest district outside of Philly. This is Mike Doyle's district.
PA 15
PVI: D+3.3
Race: 76.4 Wh, 14.4 Hisp, 4.8 Bl, 2.6 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: This is Dent's district. He could potentially lose in a dem leaning year and the seat would be very likely to go democrat if he retires.
PA 16
PVI: R+5
Race: 81.6 Wh, 9.5 Hisp, 5.0 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Like PA 9, this district has been with the party through thick and thin. Pitts is a reactionary, but this district is probably safe republican.
PA 17
PVI: R+8.5
Race: 83.3 Wh, 7.5 Bl, 5.4 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Not sure who would run here. Holden has represented parts of the ?(under this map) 17th, 11th, or 6th. This is the most republican of those seats so I doubt he would run here.
PA 18
PVI: R+4.5
Race: 92.0 Wh, 3.8 Bl, 1.5 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 1.2 Hisp, 0.1 Nat
Comments: Murphy seems fits this district pretty well and should be ok. It could go democrat if he retires, but I'm hoping the district isn't off the deep end by that point.
Rhode Island
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RI 1
PVI: Not Available
Race: 64.2 Wh, 19.9 Hisp, 7.8 Bl, 4.4 Oth, 3.3 Asn, 0.4 Oth
Comments: This district has been made very safe with Providence completely in it. Cicilline is safe as is any dem.
RI 2
PVI: Not Available
Race: 88.5 Wh, 4.9 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 2.0 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 0.3 Nat
Comments: This is the whiter and less democrat of the two districts but Langevin should be in office for as long as he wants. The district could maybe go to a Claudine Schneider-like republican if he retires.
So after rattling off these 87 districts, how many of these seats could you see the democrats winning in 2012, hypothetically?