I wanted to wait until the midnight release of the new NBC/WSJ Ohio and Florida numbers before I cranked up the meter, and I'm glad I waited. These two polls capped off an excellent day for the President. Unless you believe the "gut" of people like Dick Morris, Karl Rove, and the insanity of Michael Barone instead of actual data, then the President is well-positioned to win another term.
Let's start with the state polls today. As "wizard" Nate Silver points out, 19 swing state polls were released today, and Romney lead in exactly one of them. ROMNEY LANDSLIDE COMING! (derp). In the most important battleground state, Ohio, Obama had leads ranging from 6 (in tonight's NBC poll) to 3 (CNN poll) to 4 (from GOP polling outfit We Ask America). Even Rasmussen couldn't produce a Romney lead, as they showed the race tied. A hell of a lot of state polls, including some non-Democratic ones, would have to be pretty darn wrong for Romney to win Ohio, and if Obama wins it, it's pretty much over for Mitt.
State polls today also showed Obama leading in 2 out of 3 surveys in Colorado (the other had him tied), both surveys in Virginia, both surveys in New Hampshire, and by 7 points in Wisconsin. What is Michael Barone smoking? He does realize that a lot of state polls have been released making his prediction seem pretty ridiculous?
The one state I don't quite have a read on is Florida. A reason today wasn't a 10 was that a Mason Dixon/Tampa Bay Times poll showed Mitt up 6 in the Sunshine State. At the same time, NBC/WSJ tonight has Obama up 2. The truth is probably somewhere inbetween. With a gun to my head, I'd say Mitt wins narrowly, but with Obama's leads elsewhere, it really doesn't matter at this point. The fact that Mitt hasn't locked down Florida (he's campaigning there this weekend) is all you need to know.
Another reason today isn't a 10 is those stubborn national polls. We're still in a post-Sandy lull for national polls, but the data today offered a mixed message. Rasmussen moved from Romney +2 to a tie (setting the stage for his miraculous falling in line with other pollsters by Tuesday). PPP continued to show the President up 1. Oddly, ABC/WaPo, which had Obama up 1 yesterday, had Mitt up 1 today. In the past, ABC has released decimal points showing that a one point lead is usually more like a fraction of a point, so maybe that was the case over the past two days. Either way, the national numbers still don't conform to the state numbers. I do think Obama will win the popular vote, but I think it will be by a pretty thin margin. PPP polled Massachusetts and Connecticut and saw that Obama's 2008 leads have shrunk significantly in those deep blue states. Perhaps that is a bit of an explanation as to why there's the current PV/EV split.
Overall, though, if you look at the electoral map and see a Romney victory looming, you're either a partisan hack, or some sort of sage who foresees that most state polling is incorrect. As long as we GOTV, President Obama is going to be just fine.