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As if anyone needed more evidence that the 2012 election cycle was headed into the final few meters of the marathon, check this stat out: with more polls to come on Monday, we have logged a grand total of 132 polls to the 2012 database. And that is in roughly 48 hours, since the power issues back in NYC delayed the Wrap on Friday until approximately this time in the evening.

With such a mountain of data, it is easier than normal to draw conclusions. And, by and large, it is hard for Democrats not to be encouraged by the avalanche of numbers cascading down this weekend.

For the first time in a long time, there is a semi-consensus in the national polls, and it is good news for the incumbent. Despite some wildly variable individual polling in the state surveys, the critical mass of data points to a considerably easier path to 270 electoral votes for President Obama than it does for Mitt Romney.

More on that topic after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:


NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 49, Romney 49 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 48 (RV)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 42(RV)

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Pew): Obama 48, Romney 45 (Obama 50, Romney 47 with undecideds allocated)

NATIONAL (Politico/GWU Battleground): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (USA Today/Gallup): Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV only)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 47

ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 46

ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 40

COLORADO (Ipsos-Reuters): Romney 48, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

COLORADO (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 39

FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)

FLORIDA (Mellman Group for Americans United For Change): Obama 47, Romney 45

FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 45

FLORIDA (YouGov): Romney 48, Obama 47

GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 38

INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 51, Obama 44

IOWA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

IOWA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

IOWA (Des Moines Register): Obama 47, Romney 42

IOWA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 47, Romney 44

MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 49, Romney 42

MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 37

MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Obama 57, Romney 37

MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama 58, Romney 40

MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 37

MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Romney 47, Obama 46

MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

MINNESOTA (NMB Research--R): Romney 46, Obama 45

MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 43

MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 45

MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 42

MONTANA (Mason Dixon): Romney 53, Obama 43

MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 45

MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney 53, Obama 43

NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 45

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 48, Romney 48

NEW HAMPSHIRE (YouGov): Obama 47, Romney 43

NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 41

NEW MEXICO (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Obama 49, Romney 41, Johnson 6

NEW MEXICO (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 43

NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 36

NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 47

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Obama 50, Romney 48

OHIO (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 49, Romney 45

OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 41 (RV)

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)

OHIO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 47

OHIO (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama 49, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research--R): Obama 47, Romney 47

PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44

TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 42

TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 57, Obama 38

VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 46

WASHINGTON (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 46

WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 40

WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 42

WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 48

WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

AZ-SEN (PPP): Jeff Flake (R) 51, Richard Carmona (D) 46

AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 42

CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 56, Elizabeth Emken (R) 39

CT-SEN (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 44

FL-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 54, Connie Mack IV (R) 39 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 55, Connie Mack IV (R) 34 (RV)

FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 43

FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 43 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 42 (RV)

FL-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 44

IN-SEN (YouGov): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 45

ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 49, Charlie Summers (R) 33, Cynthia Dill (D) 11

MD-SEN (YouGov): Ben Cardin (D) 57, Daniel Bongino (R) 34

MA-SEN (Univ of Mass-Lowell): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 48

MA-SEN (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46

MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 43

MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43

MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40

MI-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 41

MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 62, Kurt Bills (R) 32

MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 32

MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 48, Todd Akin (R) 44, Jonathan Dine (L) 6

MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 52, Todd Akin (R) 42

MT-SEN (Mason Dixon): Denny Rehberg (R) 49, Jon Tester (D) 45

MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46, Dan Cox (L) 4

NV-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 49, Shelley Berkley (D) 40

NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 51, Joe Kyrillos (R) 36

NM-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 46, Heather Wilson (R) 46, Jon Barrie (IAP) 3

NM-SEN (YouGov): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 43

NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 61, Wendy Long (R) 29

OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 45

OH-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 42 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39 (RV)

OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 45 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44 (RV)

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 54, Josh Mandel (R) 44

OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 48

OH-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 46

PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 42

PA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 44

PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research--R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 45

PA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 50, Tom Smith (R) 42

TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 62, Mark Clayton (D) 29

TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 57, Paul Sadler (D) 36

VA-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Tim Kaine (D) 48, George Allen (R) 46 (LV); Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 42 (RV)

VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 46

VA-SEN (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46

WA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57, Michael Baumgartner (R) 39

WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 56, Michael Baumgartner (R) 38

WI-SEN (PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 51, Tommy Thompson (R) 48

WI-SEN (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47

MO-GOV (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 53, Dave Spence (R) 45

MT-GOV (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 48, Rick Hill (R) 48, Ron Vandeventer (L) 2

NH-GOV (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 47

NH-GOV (Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 42, Others 3

WA-GOV (PPP): Jay Inslee (D) 50, Rob McKenna (R) 48

ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 56, Jon Courtney (R) 37

ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 55, Kevin Raye (R) 36

MT-AL (Mason Dixon): Steve Daines (R) 51, Kim Gillan (D) 40

MT-AL (PPP): Steve Daines (R) 48, Kim Gillan (D) 44, Dave Kaiser (L) 3

NY-24 (Siena): Dan Maffei (D) 44, Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 44, Ursula Rozum (G) 8

NY-27 (Siena): Chris Collins (R) 48, Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) 47

UT-04 (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love (R) 48, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 43

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

As many have long suspected, there has been a bit of a convergence in this final weekend between the national polls and the state polls. While the state polls have actually remained pretty consistent, there has been a small-yet-clear movement in the national polls in the direction of the president.

For the fifth day in a row, President Obama enjoys an incremental lead in the average of national tracking polls. Today, however, is his largest lead in those five days, and his largest lead since immediately after the Denver debate. The ten national polls today yielded a lead of 1.5 percentage points for Obama, which comes close to matching the high point of the "Mitt-mentum" that immediately proceeded that Denver debate, but dissipated a few weeks ago (long before pundits actually started to notice, as it were).

For what it is worth, the current national margin, as reflected in today's polls, is nearly precisely where my own informal "back of the envelope" national margin (based entirely on state polls) came to rest last night. If you allocate the state polls by the approximate size of each state, you'd see a national lead for Barack Obama of right around two points. So, for the first time in a long time, the national polls and the state polls are nearly in convergence.

At the electoral college level, the dilemma for Mitt Romney continues to be finding a reliable path to 270 electoral votes. Sure, there are stray wild polls (almost all conducted by GOP pollsters) which show him with numbers to contend with in places like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

The overwhelming proponderance of numbers, however, still show a very uphill climb for Romney, as he looks to find some states to break above his floor, which currently sits at 191 electoral votes.

Even if you give Romney Florida and North Carolina, that only gets the challenger to 235 electoral votes. Virginia is probably the next logical state to fall in his direction, but it has been a while since we've seen polling showing him with anything more than a fractional edge there (a sketchy, old Roanoke College poll notwithstanding).

Even if you grant Romney Virginia, that only gets the scoreboard to 290-248 Obama. The next two to go, presumably, would be Colorado and Iowa, where the polls have been only marginally in Obama's favor. Romney is close enough to snag them, though I'd say it would be a stretch to call him the favorite in either. That would get it down to 275-263. New Hampshire is a similar state: Romney has no recent polls showing him any better than even, and several showing him down. But even that only gets him to 267.

And therein lies the problem: what remains are a collection of states where, aside from the occasional partisan poll, the overwhelming majority of polls are showing Obama leads. What's more, in each of those states (and I am referring here to Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), there are more polls of recent vintage showing Obama up comfortably (5+ points) than there are polls showing Romney tied or ahead.

At this late stage of the game, the conclusion seems to be clear: for Romney to win, the polls have to be off. Systematically, in multiple states, and probably by several points. Clearly, Republicans are counting on that fact. Just as clearly, there is essentially no precedent for it. There are cases where individual states have been way off the fairway (Indiana in 2008 is an instructive example--Obama only led in a tiny fraction of Hoosier State polls). But across the board? This would be the first time.

And, in the final analysis, those are pretty shallow grounds upon which to hang one's hopes.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:30 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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