So, on to the Senate: Dems retain control and gain a seat +1
Arizona: Flake(R) beats Carmona(D)
I think Carmona stumbled late with the comments about Candy Crowley. And this is just a GOP state that is going to go to type.
Connecticut: Murphy(D) beats McMahon(R)
Murphy has run a pretty good campaign. But overall, this is just Democratic presidential tide in a true blue state.
Florida: Nelson(D) beats Mack(R)
Bill Nelson is tried and true and is a good Florida fit. Mack may have the name, but that's about it. Florida voters never took him seriously.
Indiana: Donnelly(D) beats Mourdock(R)
Joe Donnelly has run a damn good campaign. One of the best in the country for sure. Contrary to Washington CL, Donnelly was primed to win this race no matter what happened at the presidential level or if Mourdock could keep his mouth shut about rape. He's just a good politician and it shows. He hasn't taken one step away from voting for Obama's healthcare plan and that takes balls in Indiana. My hat is off to him.
Massachusetts: Warren(D) beats Brown(R)
Liz Warren has also run a great campaign and is, notably, the top Senate fundraiser in America. She's been impressive and unapologetic about riding the Obama wave. Brown is a good politician but he's just overmatched. This isn't an off year special election. This is the big show.
Missouri: McCaskill(D) beats Akin(R)
I have to admit, I had this race all wrong at the beginning of year. McCaskill has shown skill and mettle. She PICKED Todd Akin to run against, Harry Reid style. If she is victorious, she is this year's Harry Reid. I suspect her victory will be impressive and will scare Republicans in the state that she could settle in with some seniority and start to build a fortress.
Montana: Rehberg(R) beats Tester(D)
2006 was probably the only year Tester could have won this seat. Rehberg is a standard issue wingnut. He will win.
Nebraska: Fischer(R) beats Kerrey(D)
Sorry, you just don't parachute in from New York City where you've been president of a university in Greenwich Village and then run for Senate in Nebraska. It is actually kind of insulting to voters that Dems tried to pull this kinda crap. Not even close. And its a shame too because Deb Fischer is crazy.
Nevada: Heller(R) beats Berkley(D)
Poor Shelley could get over the hump with the Reid machine, so I'd hate to count her out. But she's just a hard sell statewide. She's from New York City. She's Jewish. Might work on the Vegas strip but that's just not going to sell in Reno. Shame too because I like her despite her vote for the Iraq War. But nope. You gotta at least stay competitive up round Lake Tahoe. You can't just run up the numbers in Vegas and win. Heller is a Mormon from Carson City who has won statewide three times. Great Congresswoman. Not a good fit statewide.
North Dakota: Heitkamp(D) beats Berg(R)
Despite long odds, Heitkamps superior on the ground retail politics and extensive statewide experience beats Berg's natural advantage.
Virginia: Kaine(D) beats Allen(R)
Kaine was a Governor. He knows his state. And he's gonna be able to piggyback the Obama Campaign. Allen is a jackass and people know it.
And finally, my nominee for the best race of the year:
Wisconsin: Baldwin(D) beats Thompson(R)
Tammy Baldwin has been a spectacular candidate and will be the first openly lesbian Senator. She's awesome and is really doing a great job running on what she believes. Very, very compelling on TV.
I should point out a special message for three people I absolutely cannot stand: Kent Conrad, Ben Nelson, and Joe Lieberman.