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Four years ago, I predicted right here on Daily Kos that Obama would win with 54% of the popular vote and 338 votes in the EC. He won with 53% of the popular vote and with 365 EC votes. Now I'm back for my final prediction before Tuesday. As I mentioned in the diary way back then, I'm not a superstitious person in the least and I don't think I'm jinxing anything. If you're terrified about election day then you probably should stop reading right here.

My EC projection is Obama with 303 and Romney with 235. I think Obama will win the popular vote with 51%. My full analysis is below.

Of the swing states, I'm giving Obama the following: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Obviously I'm also giving Wisconsin to Obama, but I've never considered it a swing state this cycle. I'm giving Florida and North Carolina to Romney.

1. VIRGINIA

I live in Northern Virginia (ground zero: Fairfax County) and I'm fairly sure my state will be very close. Two weeks ago I would've said it's 50-50, but on the whole I'm encouraged by the latest polling. Obama also has a ferocious organization here; I've seen Obama volunteers all over George Mason University and two of them came to my house yesterday reminding us to vote on Tuesday. Obama won Fairfax County with 60% of the vote in 2008. He needs to rack up at least 55% of the vote here, 55% in Prince William, and 50% in Loudoun to win the state. When the numbers come in on Tuesday, just skip past the bullshit and look at how he's doing in these counties. Prediction: O 51% R 48%.

2. OHIO

The early vote numbers from Ohio, as well as the polls, are looking great. I'm far more certain that Obama will win here than in Virginia. The two most important counties in the state are Cuyahoga in Cleveland and Franklin in Columbus. In 2008, Obama won them with 69% and 60% of the vote, respectively. He won the state with 52% of the vote so he has a bit of a cushion in case the rural counties post higher numbers for Romney than four years ago. If he can get at least 65% in Cuyahoga he'll be fine. Amazingly, despite the national erosion of support for Obama in comparison to 2008, Ohio is set to defy the trend and vote for the President with about the same margin as it did four years ago. Prediction: O 52% R 47% (same as 2008).

3. FLORIDA

Obama won Florida with 51% to McCain's 48% in 2008. That kind of margin leaves little room for error, and although Democrats continue leading in the early voting tallies, they do so by far smaller margins than four years ago. The key for the Democrats, as always, is Southern Florida. Obama will need roughly the same numbers there that he posted in 2008, otherwise he doesn't have much of a chance. I think Romney will win the state with the thinnest of margins. Prediction: R 50% O 49%.  

4. NEVADA

All the polls in Nevada point to an easy Obama victory, and the Democrats are well ahead of Republicans in the early vote. Nevada is now a reliably Democratic state; Republicans have lost it for at least the next generation. Obama beat McCain here by 12 points and Romney is headed for a similar loss. Prediction: O 53% R 46%.

5. NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina has always been the toughest battleground for Obama this year. There was hope early on that it would remain competitive, but I think any rational analysis would conclude that Romney will win here. Of the last ten polls released in the state, Romney leads six of them, three of them are tied, and Obama leads one. Obama won in 2008 by just 14,000 votes. Unlike Florida, there is absolutely no room for error here. In fact, Obama will have to outdo his 2008 margins in Wake County (he won with 57%) considering the lopsided losses he'll suffer in the rural areas. Romney looks good here. Prediction: R 52% O 47%.

6. IOWA

Iowa is the state that got Obama going in the 2008 primaries and gave him a 9 point victory in the general election. The early voting figures are promising and the last ten polls show Obama ahead in eight. It'll be very close but I think Obama will take it in the end. Prediction: O 51% R 48%.

7. NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000. A lot of people have forgotten that a Gore win there would have earned the Vice President 270 electoral votes and negated the entire fiasco in Florida. Rousseau once predicted that Corsica would shock the world one day, and surely enough it produced Napoleon. Don't rule out New Hampshire's importance in a close race for the EC. Obama won every county in the state four years ago; he'll need an equivalent performance on Tuesday, but he has a big cushion given his 54% tally in 2008. Prediction: O 52% R 47%.

8. COLORADO

Obama defeated McCain decisively here, winning by 9 points. That's unlikely to happen again. This is probably the closest battleground state in which I'm predicting an Obama victory. The last ten polls show a close race leaning towards the President: Obama leads six polls, Romney leads three, and one is tied. Prediction: O 50% R 49%.

That's my take on the battleground states. I want to emphasize that I consider any insinuation of states like Pennsylvania or Michigan as competitive to be absolutely foolish. The Democrats have a voter registration advantage of more than one million in Pennsylvania. Jesus would have a hard time beating Obama there, much less Mitt Romney. So these are my predictions and I'm sticking to 'em. What are yours?

Poll

How many EC votes will Obama receive?

3%7 votes
5%11 votes
15%32 votes
41%89 votes
14%30 votes
12%26 votes
6%13 votes
2%5 votes

| 213 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I say 281, with a scant popular vote victory... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vidanto, Twodaiquiris, kefauver, Darmok

    ...I admit that I am being pessimistic.

    it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

    by Addison on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:52:30 PM PST

  •  That's good enough for me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris

    Especially after hearing all year long we don't stand a chance.

  •  Ohio (0+ / 0-)

    I hope you are spot on.
    I am not as confident in Ohio given the treasonous level of voter suppression going on there. And it is not even elction day.
    Go Virginia!

  •  I think you are right-on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vidanto

    Agree with you that Colorado is the closest swing, and that O might not prevail.

  •  294-244 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    reason7

    I have the consensus minus CO.  No one is factoring in Gary Johnson, especially in CO & NH.  Pot smoking youth will give Johnson to Romney by about 8,000 votes.  The "Live Free or Die" crowd will give Johnson a lot of notice.  Obama wins NH by about 7,000 votes.  Romney wins FL by <0.5% due to voter suppression.  Only other state margin of under 2% is VA, Obama by 1.5%.  Cautious optimism.

    •  A completely agree (0+ / 0-)

      This has been my thinking for several weeks now. Everyone is focusing on OH but I think VA will make the Obama victory strong (even, if things go terribly wrong in OH which I do not expect). I think FL will be lost and CO will be close - just to be pessimistic enough, I assume it will go for Romney.

  •  I agree with you on 49 states + DC (0+ / 0-)

    but I do believe that the Pres is winning FL.

  •  At least 294; CO, FL, NC will be close (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    StonyB, pademocrat

    I think the race is pretty much decided in 47 states. Obama will likely win Colorado, but I don't think it's totally out of Romney's reach. Florida and North Carolina will be extremely close.

    "Sometimes a scream is better than a thesis." -Ralph Waldo Emerson "YEAAAAAAARGH!" -Howard Dean

    by AtomikNY on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:05:16 PM PST

  •  I have Obama winning FL by the (5+ / 0-)

    Absolute slimmiest of margins so he gets 332 EV's. Should be fun on Tuesday

    "I don't want a line in the Sand lines can be moved. They can be blown away. I want a six foot trench carved into granite."

    by theone718 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:14:57 PM PST

  •  Exactly what I've been saying (4+ / 0-)

    Although my friends are saying Obama's winning NC in a sleeper, bringing it to 318. If he wins FL we get up to 347. Still, I say 303 and Nate agrees with me.

    16, Progressive, Indian-American, Phillies Phan. Obama/Om/Chase Utley

    by vidanto on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:15:05 PM PST

  •  We're on the same page. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TWOFACEMITT, LearningCurve

    Funny, but 303-235 is exactly the same prediction I made to some friends on 10/23.  Colorado and Florida were the two toughest calls, and we could easily be wrong on either or both.  But I'm still optimistic that Obama will hit the 300 EV mark, albeit barely.

    Gonna be a bumpy 48 hours, or worst case, much longer than that.  But let's GOTV and stay optimistic...

    Romney-Ryan 2012. Because Robber Barons are people too.

    by StonyB on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:17:37 PM PST

  •  Call me crazy but I say 347 EV for Barack (5+ / 0-)

    In 2008 I said he'd win 364 and was off by just one. I missed the NE C-2's 1 EV. Close enough for goverment work, though.

    This time I think he has a good chance to run the table of all of the battleground states, which is what he needs to get 347.

    I am banking on Obama winning all the battleground states in which he currently has a lead (however small) at pollster.com. These would include OH, WI, IA, NV, NH, CO, and VA. If he gets all of these, he wins 303 EV. I think he can run the table in all of these states based on his established lead and superior ground game.

    Now we get to the ones that are clearly more dicey: Florida and North Carolina.

    Obama and Romney are basically tied in the polls in Florida, with maybe a slight edge to Romney, though R's best polls have been by well known Republican leaners like Gravis and Mason-Dixon. Here I'm counting on the recent trend toward Obama in the national polls, and also (a lot) on the Obama ground game, which has done a fantastic job with early voting under trying conditions. Enthusiasm for voting for Obama among minority voters seems extremely strong. If Obama wins FL, he has 332 EV.

    In North Carolina, Obama actually trails slightly in the polls (though many of these are by right leaning outfits like Gravis and Rasmussen. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I've been deeply impressed by reports of early voting and ground game in NC, so I'm going to vote with my heart on this one and get to 347.

    But, that said, I'll take anything down to 270 and run to the bank with it.

    •  If you're right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LearningCurve

      And the only flip from 2008 is Indiana, would that constitute a record in the least change between subsequent Presidential elections?

      Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

      by GeoffT on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:52:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  To answer my own question: no (0+ / 0-)

        But it would be the smallest change since the advent of Presidents who were members of a political party.

        In 1792 every state that went for Washington in 1789 (i.e. all of them) went for him again.

        In 1800 vs 1796, NY's 12 votes and 2 of MD's flipped from Federalist to Democratic-Republican, 6 of PA's votes and 3 of NC's flipped the other way.

        In 1888 vs 1884, NY and IN flipped from Democratic to Republican (making Grover Cleveland not-President for one term, although he still had a majority of the popular vote).

        In 1908 vs 1904, NV, CO and NE flipped from Republican to Democratic.

        In 1924 vs 1920, OK and TN flipped Republican to Democratic, KY flipped Democratic to Republican, and WI flipped from Republican to Progressive (go Fightin' Bob! - just including this 4-flipper on his account).

        In 2004 vs 2000, NH flipped Republican to Democratic and IA & NM flipped Democratic to Republican.

        Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

        by GeoffT on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:19:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  My prediction O 51 R 47; O 347 R 191 (5+ / 0-)
    •  Agreed!! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tzager, blueoasis

      Uber, buddy, clearly you haven't been paying attention to either the GOTV diaries, or recent polls.

      Nate and you are underestimating this badly.  I FULLY expect POTUS to "run the table" in the swing states and WIN THEM ALL.

      My prediction: 347 EV's, which includes wins in CO, VA, FL and NC.

      You heard it here first!!

  •  add Florida to that for us, and you have my guess (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoasis


    "A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and bulbous..........got me?" - Don Van Vliet

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:38:28 PM PST

  •  Obama will carry Florida!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoasis

    Election Day turn out will be huge every where!

    Obama's final popular vote lead will be a major upset for the mainstream pollsters.

    52% for Obama and 47% (!!!) for Romney is my final prediction.

    47% will ironically haunt Romney..!!!

    My electoral college prediction is: Obama at least 332 EVs and Romney 206 EVs.

    NC and NE02 are tough races but don't count them out yet...

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