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I was busy doing some field work in Virginia this weekend, so I didn't get around to the poll-o-meter until tonight. The bottom line is that there have been hundreds of polls this weekend, released from many many different sources. Combined they show a very coherent story.

Nationally, Obama has regained a slight, but discernible lead. If you take a straight, unweighted average of all the national polls released today, as TPM did, Obama leads by 1.25. The great Nate Silver estimates that 1 point popular vote win for Obama gives him a 90-95% chance of winning the electoral college. I'll also note that it will be super funny to see what Gallup spews up tomorrow. They went on a week long hiatus after Hurricane Sandy hit, and I would not be surprised if their numbers reemerge miraculously close to the national mean.

In the swing states, the picture is even brighter. Obama has lead in all of the Ohio polls released today, and perhaps more amazingly, in all of the Virginia polls. I'm somewhat, minorly worried that two Pennsylvania polls released today show Obama tied and up 3, but one of those was the right-leaning Susquehanna polls. I just don't think Mitt has a chance there. It's always a Republican pipe dream. Obama also sports small, but consistent leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and now leads in the RCP average of Colorado. If he were to win all of the states he's currently leading, he'd get a comfy 303 electoral votes, and that's without Florida, which is very close but probably leaning slightly towards Romney.

As many others have said, the state polls would have to be systemically biased for Mitt Romney to win. "Smart" pundits are still predicting a Mitt victory, and I'll name a few so that we can call them out on Wednesday:

Jay Cost, Josh Kraushaar, George Will, Michael Barone, Karl Rove, Dicky Morris and, of course, the Unskewed guy.

Tomorrow I'll be back with one final Poll-o-Meter, and my official predictions for the Presidential race, the Senate, and the House.



How would you rate today's polls for President Obama?

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| 108 votes | Vote | Results

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