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Leading Off:

IN-Sen, IN-Gov: Howey feelin' today, Joe Donnelly? We feelin' good? I should think so, considering that Howey Politics' new poll (conducted by GOP firm Bellwether Research and Democratic outfit Garin-Hart-Yang) has the Dem congressman up an eye-popping 47-36 over Republican Richard Mourdock, with Libertarian Andrew Horning at 6. That's up from a narrow 40-38 Donnelly edge in mid-September, and while the 11-point margin is by far the biggest we've seen, the trendlines mirror the same disastrous slide for Mourdock we've seen in Donnelly's own internals.

Mourdock claims to have yet another internal poll (again from McLaughlin), showing him ahead 46-44. But the cheese stands alone on this one: In Howey's new survey, Romney leads 51-41, hardly changed from his 52-40 edge in their prior poll, proving that Mourdock's slide is unique to him. But even Rasmussen has now managed to find a lead for Donnelly, putting him ahead 45-42. In mid-October, Ras had Mourdock up 47-42.

If Donnelly nevertheless loses, he'll still have succeeded in drawing a huge amount of financial fire away from other Democrats in the election's closing weeks. Politico totes up the outside-group spending in Indiana for the final week, and find that American Crossroads, the Club for Growth, the NRSC, and groups linked to Sen. Rand Paul and conservative rich guy Joe Ricketts are combining to spend $4 million on the last week. (Of course, that means Democrats are spending there too, though I'm sure they're glad to be on the offense; the DSCC and Majority PAC are shelling out $3 million in the same timeframe.) (David Jarman)

Also interesting are the numbers for the governor's race, where GOP Rep. Mike Pence remains stuck at 47, while Democrat John Gregg improved to 40 percent, up from 34. It's still very much a longshot for Gregg, but Pence hasn't been able to clear 50% even in his own internals despite having every advantage, which makes you wonder if Mourdock is screwing things up for the rest of the GOP ticket. For that reason, we're slotting the race back in at Likely R, since the Mourdock factor's unpredictably now makes us loathe to rule out a gubernatorial upset as well. (David Nir & David Jarman)

Race Ratings:

We're only making three changes today (you'll find our IN-Gov writeup in the "Leading Off" section of the Digest, just above). But we plan to keep monitoring all potentially competitive races right down to the wire, and we expect to make other last-minute adjustments on Monday and Tuesday.

MI-Sen (Likely D to Safe D): GOP ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra simply has no path to victory. He's never led in any reputable polling, he's gotten outraised almost 3-to-1, and the NRSC hasn't spent a dime on him. The DSCC hasn't spent anything on Sen. Debbie Stabenow, either, which pretty much tells you all you need to know.

RI-01 (Lean D to Tossup): For a while, it looked like Dem Rep. David Cicilline's decision to apologize for his poor stewardship of (and lack of forthrightness about) Providence's finances when he served as mayor had saved his bacon, as a series of unanswered Democratic polls showed some daylight between himself and Republican Brendan Doherty. But Doherty managed to somehow pull back into contention, possibly because of this nasty NRCC ad which paints Cicilline as a monster for having had the temerity to represent unsavory defendants as a criminal defense attorney. Unjust as that attack may be, Republicans have since released their own unanswered poll showing Doherty up 6, and an independent survey had the race tied. The DCCC has had to step in here, too, which they wouldn't do if Cicilline weren't vulnerable.

Senate:

HI-Sen: We're a little shy on details behind this—and also a little short on a rationale why—but Hotline's Reid Wilson tweets that Majority PAC is going on the air in the Hawaii Senate race, which almost all polling has shown Dem Mazie Hirono to have locked down. Hawaii's a very inexpensive media market, so maybe it's just cheap insurance... but it's been a race that really hasn't merited insurance at all. (David Jarman)

MA-Sen (Kimball): Elizabeth Warren  (D): 47 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 49 (46); Obama 54-41 (55-39). Kimball, just as a reminder, is a Republican pollster, and he offers what might charitably be called a "Manchurian Candidate" explanation as to why his poll numbers are so divergent:

The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown’s blistering attacks on Warren’s heritage and her legal representation took time to have the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren’s unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.
MI-Sen (PPP for LCV): Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 53 (50), Pete Hoekstra (R): 40 (41); Obama 52-46 (51-44).

MT-, WI-Sen: I couldn't possibly be so cynical as to say that Friday was the day when narrative-setting Rasmussen goes to sleep, its work for the cycle done, and sort-of-accurate Rasmussen wakes up and goes to work for its requisite half-a-week out of every two years, could I?

MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc): 49 (48), Denny Rehberg (R): 48 (48), "Other" 2.

WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D): 48 (47), Tommy Thompson (R): 48 (48).

And see IN-Sen above as well. (David Jarman)

NV-Sen: Let me start with a wheelbarrow full of caveats: any amount of ticket-splitting could be going on, and more generally, past performance is no guarantee of future results (in terms of how the actual election day votes go). But the Dems are killing it in Nevada in the early vote this year, perhaps to the extent that Dem coattails might pull NV-Sen's Shelley Berkley (and NV-04's Steven Horsford) over the line. Friday's early-vote tally has Dems leading the GOP in early votes, 45-36 (with 19% "other"), with a margin of 45K votes separating them.  In addition to a dominant total in Clark Co. (a 60K Dem advantage there), the Dems have nosed ahead (by 600 votes) in the critical swing county of Washoe (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov: It looks like those Aaron Schock rumors have resurfaced—the gubernatorial ones, of course. Reid Wilson reports that Schock, whose supporters have previously pooh-poohed the notion that he might run for governor in 2014, met with top RGA officials to discuss exactly that possibility. (Both the RGA and Schock are not commenting.) Is the world ready for a governor born in the 1980s?

MT-Gov: Two polls suggest that Montana's gubernatorial race—much like its Senate race—is still anyone's game. Mason-Dixon, on behalf of Lee Newspapers, finds Republican ex-Rep. Rick Hill leading Democratic AG Steve Bullock, 49-46 (with the Libertarian at 2); that's reversed from a 44-43 Bullock lead in their previous poll in September. Given the state's GOP lean, Bullock needs to win among indies, but they find Hill leading among independents, 46-41.

Mason-Dixon has been generating fairly strong GOP house effects this cycle, so you might mentally adjust that poll a smidge... but on the other side of the coin, there's also a new Dem internal (probably intended to push back against the M-D poll) that seems a bit on the optimistic side. A poll for the DGA from the Mellman Group puts Bullock ahead 47-40, with the Libertarian at 3. They find Bullock winning indies by 10, and maybe more importantly, up 20 among early voters. If you throw them on the pile to get averaged out, well, you've still got a pure Tossup, which is basically how the race has been all cycle. (David Jarman)

House:

GA-12: A poll from Democratic pollster 20/20 Insight, on behalf of a group called Better Georgia, finds Dem Rep. John Barrow with a 50-44 lead over Republican Lee Anderson, including leaners. That's a remarkable position for Barrow to find himself in, given how badly his seat was jacked in redistricting, but it buttresses other evidence we've seen lately (and evidence we haven't seen, like any fresh Anderson internals) that he's got a legitimate shot at surviving into the 113th Congress. (By the way, Better Georgia is officially non-partisan, but it's an affiliate of the leftyish group ProgressNow, whose other state-level partners include organizations like the Courage Campaign in California and One Wisconsin Now.)

NH-01, NH-02: Does every small northeastern college need its own polling operation? Now New England College (not to be confused with Massachusetts's Western New England University) is getting into the game with a poll of its home state. They deliver a split verdict on the state's two Tossup House races: they find GOP incumbent Frank Guinta leading Carol Shea-Porter in their rematch, 48-41. However, they find Dem challenger Annie Kuster leading GOP incumbent Charlie Bass in the 2nd district, 47-41. Top of the ticket, they have Barack Obama leading statewide 50-44.  (David Jarman)

OK-02: Data has been very sparse out of Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, where Team Blue faces a very difficult job of retaining retiring Rep. Dan Boren's open seat in this classic "Demosaur" area. But we finally have our first poll, from Soonerpoll.com, which unsurprisingly puts Republican plumbing company owner Markwayne Mullin ahead of Democratic former prosecutor Rob Wallace, 45-33. The high undecideds with just days to go are a bit odd, but given how conservative this region is (McCain won it 66-34), that's of no help to Wallace.

SD-AL: One last poll of South Dakota from Neilson Brothers shows (as with most of their previous polls) the state's at-large House race within single digits, but without much of a path to victory for Dem challenger Matt Varilek. Varilek trails GOP frosh Kristi Noem 50-44, little changed from Noem's prior 49-44 edge. Top of the ticket, Barack Obama trails Mitt Romney 50-42, but there's an interesting number at the bottom of the ticket: Matt McGovern (the grandson of the recently-deceased former presidential nominee and senator George McGovern, whom you might remember was floated as a potential Democratic SD-Sen candidate in 2010) is leading Republican incumbent Public Services Commissioner Kristi Fiegen, 45-39. (David Jarman)

UT-04: Too much pizza seems to have done in Jim Matheson's chances. (I'm referring to the state GOP's decision to roll the dice on a "pizza" map that tried to dislodge Matheson, the state's lone House Dem, rather than the "donut" map that would concede him a seat.) Mason-Dixon, on behalf of the Salt Lake Tribune, finds Republican challenger Mia Love leading Matheson 52-40 in their first poll of this race. Matheson has traditionally relied on a lot of Republican crossover to keep him in place, but the poll finds he's only getting 9% of the Republicans in the sample. The article mentions some vague pushback from Matheson's camp in the form of an internal claiming a 2-point lead for the incumbent; there's no link to the poll in the article, though, and at any rate, the disparity between a 2-point lead in an internal and a 12-point deficit in a public poll shouldn't be much comfort to Matheson fans. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen: Siena has another trio of state Senate polls, and the results are quite interesting. Democrats have apparently been unable to capitalize on the strange situation in SD-43 (there are always strange situations in New York senate races), where GOP Sen. Roy McDonald lost his primary because of his support for gay marriage but remains on the Independence Party's line. But Republican nominee Kathy Marchione is out in front with 40 percent, while McDonald (who isn't campaigning) still takes 29 and Democrat Robin Andrews is mired in third at 25 in this upper Hudson Valley seat.

But SD-46 is more compelling. This is the brand-new 63rd seat that Republican cartographers controversially added to the Senate map in the Albany area, which was expected to be a lock for them to pick up. However, Republican Assemblyman George Amedore leads Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk by just a 47-44 margin. It's still a longshot for Dems, but that the race is so close is still something. One possible reason it is: George Soros's PAC has been spending big here, with $250K worth of ads mostly backing the idea of public campaign financing.

Finally, Democratic fortunes have improved greatly in SD-55, based mostly in upstate Monroe County.) Democrat Ted O'Brien is now beating Republican Assemblyman Sean Hanna 50-39, whereas just a month ago, Hanna led 47-39. (This seat is open because GOP Sen. Jim Alessi decided to retire after voting in favor of same-sex marriage.) If you're inclined to mistrust that big swing, here's a good reason why you should favor the new numbers rather than the old: Deputy Senate Majority Leader Tom Libous, a Republican who heads his party's campaign efforts, just went on record saying that he "would concede that we are not winning that seat."

One more detail: Libous also says that Hurricane Sandy has made things a lot more difficult for Republican NYC Councilman Eric Ulrich, who is trying to unseat Dem state Sen. Joseph Addabbo in the GOP's lone realistic pickup opportunity in SD-15. The areas hardest hit by the storm in the Rockaways are more Republican-leaning (thanks, ironically, to a GOP gerrymander which moved Democratic precincts in the Rockaways into a different district), and Ulrich's wife also just gave birth. It sounds like Libous is ready to write this one off, too, as CapTon notes he said "he's proud the Senate GOP has managed to run a competitive race in the New York City district." A real moral victory, huh? Addabbo also says he's stopped campaigning due to the destruction, but on balance, that probably favors the incumbent.

State Legislatures: I was a little too hasty in saying that Governing's Louis Jacobsen was the only handicapper in town when it comes to the oft-neglected realm of state legislatures; the always-comprehensive Ballotpedia also has ratings charts (and they, like Jacobsen, see the likely results as something of a wash for the two parties).

There's also a good piece about the battle for legislatures from state-level wonk Josh Goodman, writing for Pew's Stateline these days. It focuses on some of the neglected states where control of the chamber isn't at stake, but whether or not the in-power party can get over the hump to a supermajority. The biggest example of that, of course, is California, where getting over the 2/3rds mark in both chambers would help the Democrats break through decades of being stymied by an obstinate Republican minority. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:01 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Indiana....that 'non-women's issue' thingy is (8+ / 0-)

    costing the goopers a pretty penny.

  •  FL Insider Advantage (R): Romney 52-47 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:08:39 AM PST

    •  Florida is going to be close (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, Cedwyn, pademocrat

      From everything I have seen. But it doesn't really matter. Obama's path to 270 doesn't go through Tampa. Plus, this whole chaos in Miami-Dade is just going to confuse more people than it helps.

      •  I let go of FL, too corrupt. nt (0+ / 0-)
      •  Are you referring to absentee ballots (0+ / 0-)

        or something else?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:49:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Everything (0+ / 0-)

          Ballots returned by state party. Turnout in South Florida compared to 08. As well as polling.

          •  Is it still down compared to 2008? (0+ / 0-)

            I feel as if I've been reading a lot of conflicting information about this.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:57:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Most of the conflicting reports (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              Are coming from Miami Dade. There is a GIANT Clusterf*** there with early voting being extended by court order, then temporarily stopped midday, just to be restarted a few hours later. Early voting is not going today, but the courts ordered "in person absentee" voting today, which is essentially early voting. It's a giant mess in Miami Dade. But if you look at the numbers in the rest of south Florida, they are down a fair amount from 08.

              •  Then why are Republicans worried? (0+ / 0-)

                Maybe I have buried my head in the sand, but I could have sworn seeing at least a few instances of Republicans being quoted that we were cleaning their clocks in the state. Wasn't there some big thing about how we were turning out lots of non-frequent voters as well?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:18 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That was only in Broward County (0+ / 0-)

                  And I suspect that that leaked memo was done so deliberately to scare Republican voters into donating last minute as well as voting.

                  •  Hmm, well, looks like I've got today's (0+ / 0-)

                    lunch time reading material.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:18:42 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Palm Beach actually (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike

                    the one encouraging thing we did see is some Dem operative saying we were doing well with new and sporadic voters.

                    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:19:13 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Do you (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      LordMike

                      have a couple of links handy or at least a suggestion for a newspaper that summarizes this well? I'm surprised at how off I might be on this stuff. I really thought we were doing pretty well with early voters in Florida.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:22:15 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  MHP and RM had good coverage on MSNBC (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        JBraden

                        yesterday about the messes in Florida and Ohio early voter suppression, but they did not have numbers. Nobody does. You can't run a poll to see how many people went to vote early, much less who couldn't stay the 4, 5, even 8 hours needed to get through, much less still those who didn't turn up because they heard.

                        Nate Silver rates Florida a 55% chance for Romney, based on a model that does not deal directly with voter suppression. It was trending for Obama before the first debate disaster. Nationally, Obama is up to the level right before the debate, but not in FL or NC (77% chance for Romney).

                        We are at the point where only one poll matters, the one on the day. Tomorrow. Plus recount time, plus court time, plus who knows what in Florida? But it should all be moot tomorrow when Ohio comes in.

                        America—We built that!

                        by Mokurai on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:36:11 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

    •  Polls irrelevant in Florida (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DavidW

      People are very, very angry...good people...people of color and minorities. Either Scott will succeed in disenfranchising them or they will rebel so loudly that their shouts will be heard across the nation.

      •  I don't think that is an accurate assessment (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Obama Amabo, jncca

        Obama has been tied/leading/trailing in the state with narrow margins now. I don't think that if Obama loses we can automatically attribute that to voter disenfranchisement. Obama is not as popular as he was in 08. That's just the reality of it. Obama won Florida by 3 last time around, so it is not outside of the realm of possibility that Obama loses Florida fair and square.

        •  I agree, OGG, except that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          I've long felt that as long as Obama wasn't crashing nationwide, he would win Florida, however narrowly. Bush's win in 2004 came from non-whites, just as Obama's did in 2008. His strength with nonwhite hasn't dissipated much, if at all, in the last four years. If anything, it's gotten stronger. I expect that to be reflected in the totals on election day.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:53:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  non-whites (0+ / 0-)

            Florida is something like 80% white, when you count white Cubans (who are technically Hispanics, but vote nearly as Republican as white voters). So Obama's strength among the other 20% of the state is sort of irrelevant of Obama loses even 5 points among white voters, which I suspect he has.

            •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

              If you classify "whites" as including some types of Hispanics, it's about 75 percent white. But if you look at non-Hispanic whites, it's abou 58 percent white.

              There's also the fact that Kerry and Obama appear to have roughly the same level of support, if we can believe the exit polls. The years of 2000 and 2004 were fairly different for us, yet our share of the white vote supposedly stayed the same. To me, that suggests it won't be different this year.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:06:56 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Let's be blunt. It's Cubans, not "Some types" (0+ / 0-)

                Of Hispanics. And Cubans that classify themselves as white are quite conservative in their voting tendencies. So randomly exclusing them from "non-Hispanic whites" in this case is disingenuous.

                •  No, not really. (0+ / 0-)

                  Cubans are only 5 percent or so of the Florida population.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:18:15 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  It's also blacks. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  Bush won more of them in 2004 than Republicans usually do, possibly almost twice as many. I think it's safe to say that won't happen with Romney this year.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:24:53 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Whoa, no, that is not accurate (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden

                Your math says that 17% of the total population is Hispanic whites.

                That's waaaaaaay wrong.

                Whites are a minority of Hispanics in America, and Florida.

                OGGoldy's numbers are high indeed, whites including Hispanics are in the high 60s or low 70s, not 75 or 80.  The non-Hispanic white electorate will be in the 60s, perhaps the low 60s.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:24:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's actually not true (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera, DCCyclone, jncca, bjssp

                  From Page 14 of the Census 2010 review of the Hispanic population, 53% of Hispanics identified as white alone, and the percentage was even higher for Cubans (85.4% white) and South Americans (65.9% white), who are concentrated in Florida. Also, Puerto Ricans in Florida tend to be whiter than their counterparts in New York and Illinois, and nationwide Puerto Ricans are 53.1% white. So whites would be a clear majority of Florida's Hispanics.

                  Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                  by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:59:06 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I think you are wrong, DCC. (0+ / 0-)

                  Making a new post about this now in the newer thread.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:27:06 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I'm here on the ground (7+ / 0-)

          And I talked to half a dozen people yesterday who couldn't take hours off Tuesday to vote and who were mad as hell. The ballot is 6 legal pages of small print, and it takes forever just to fill it in.

          They also redistricted at the very last minute, so that many folks don't even know where to vote.

          This was all very deliberate, believe me. When Bush won, there were road blocks in front of polling places with Hialeah police searching the cars of potential voters of color. This is a long tradition here.

    •  Florida is a must win state for Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy, askew

      so if Obama wins it is icing on the cake.

      I think that Florida is going to be closer than that for Democrats are pissed off.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:56:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Only 32,000 left without power in PA (10+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:13:25 AM PST

  •  POS (R) polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, abgin

    Don't know whether these were reported earlier:

    Florida:  Romney 50-48
    Ohio:  Obama 48-46
    Pennsylvania:  Obama 49-46
    Virginia:  Obama 49-48
    Wisconsin:  Obama 49-48

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:20:53 AM PST

  •  Obama camp exudes confidence in home stretch (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    How Romneyworld sees Mitt winning the White House on Tuesday
    http://harndenblog.dailymail.co.uk/...

    •  CBS article has some interesting "insider talk" (6+ / 0-)

      on the rank order of battleground states.

      Campaign officials say, based on internal polling and early vote totals, the three battleground states they feel most confident about winning are Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa. They place Ohio one rung below those three states; then comes New Hampshire.

      Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are the wild cards, though aides insist they can win all four and point out they can get to 270 electoral votes even if they lose all four.

      The main surprise to me on this list is Iowa placed as high as NV and WI, even above OH. I presume this must be based on their analysis of early voting there.

      If IA and NH are indeed fairly solid then Obama would need one more out of OH, VA, CO, FL, NC to win. Most likely is OH, I'd put him around 85% to win there, maybe 60 in VA and CO, 40 in FL, and 20 in NC.

      •  Yes Obama will win Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        If he wins Ohio then he wins regardless of anything else.

        I think that Obama wins Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado but loses Florida and North Carolina.

        President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

        by Drdemocrat on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:59:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Iowa is no surprise now because... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, abgin, sapelcovits

        ...the early vote is now 41.5% of the total 2008 vote, and there's still early voting through today.

        So those early vote numbers tell a lot for campaign pros who know how to correctly interpret them.

        In 2008, 36% of the total electorate voted early, and it will be probably over 42% this time, which translates to about 100,000 more people voting early this time than in 2008.

        Obama won Iowa last time by 146K, and that was a a big 10% margin win, so that gives some perspective that increasing the early vote by 100K really reduces the election day vote quite a bit.

        The GOP argues with sleight of hand that the Democratic margin is significantly down this time from 4 years ago in early voting, but the reality is that Obama won by such a huge margin last time that he's got plenty of room to give, and really the margin now is plenty enough for him to win.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:35:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wanna slap Matt Yglesias in the face (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14, IM, bumiputera, askew, jncca

      after reading his reasons for voting for Obama. He says

      I’m voting for Obama because, basically, I strongly disagree with Mitt Romney’s views on abortion, gay rights, foreign policy, and such. I’d like to say I have reasons driven by detailed examination of the policy issues, but that’s really what it comes down to. On the economic policy issues I cover for Slate I think it’s a tough choice, but Romney may deserve the edge. Obama’s proposed second-term agenda of deficit reduction is misguided, and I think it’s reasonably likely that President Romney would emerge as a closet Keynesian and bring us a lower unemployment rate.
      He's said in the past he has neoliberal-ish views in a lot of issues. That's fine. But unless there was an issue with editing, his arguent seems to boil down to, "I hope Romney is lying, and even if he isn't, his deficits from his tax cuts will be good, because bigger deficits are needed right now. Or something. Other forms of stimulus that Romney hasn't proposed? Hey, look over there!"

      I agree with Yglesias when he's said in the past that middle classe taxes can and probably should go up, and that the way to probably do it is by a base broadening lowering of rates and closing of loopholes. But is now the time to do it? And what does it say about Romney that he won't tell us anything about which ones to close and that his $17,000-$25,000 limitation won't come close to lowering the deficit?

      I've emailed a progressive economist in the past over Yglesias and this stuff, and this is what hes said:

      he's mixed a couple of different issues. In the short-term we need demand in any form. A tax increase of any type reduces demand. However if we think the economy is near full employment, then the question would be whether we can find ways to increase efficiency. If we eliminate selective tax breaks, like the mortgage interest deduction, this would increase efficiency. the effects are likely to be fairly limited, but it would be a net positive.
      What about the ACA, Dodd-Frank, and the Republican refusal to raise taxes of any kind?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:45:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MorningJoe , claims of Rmoney "wave" (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, IndyLiberal, bythesea, itskevin, IM, askew

    yet they have the same polls, all showing Obama +

    amusing

    •  does anyone know (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, IM

      when the last time the polls were as systemically far off as they would have to be in order for Romney to win?

      the only example that jumps to mind is the New Hampshire primary in 2008, but I think there were only three polls showing Obama up there, compared to the absolute deluge we have received showing Obama consistently up in Ohio and up much more often than not in the other swing states (sans NC and FL).

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:41:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The best case I can make for Romney's (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, IM

        side is that they think the electorate will be different than it appears in public polling. That's a legitimate, if entirely misguided claim to make, much much stronger than the notion it's all being skewed on purpose. But then, (a) why are their polls any better than Obama's, which were showing the electorate to be so Democratic that his team was subtracting points off of the total and (b) what in their behavior suggests they really believe this modeling?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:48:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Never. The problem is Romney needs... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, MBishop1, JBraden, sapelcovits

        ...the polls to be wrong in a bunch of swing states, not just Ohio.  If you look at a list of polls in chronological order in battleground states, Obama has clear if small leads in OH/WI/IA/NH, and of course Nevada has been won.  In Virginia now, look at Pollster and you'll see 9 of the last 10 polls there, and 12 of the last 14, have Obama leading; Romney's only leads are in today's junkyard Rasmussen poll, and an old Newsmax poll that's been succeeded by one with Obama up 6.  In Colorado, Obama leads in 10 of the last 14, with one tie and 3 small Romney leads.  In Florida, there are 21 polls over the past 2 weeks, with Romney up in 10, Obama in 9, and 2 ties.

        And early voting doesn't show any Romney surge in these states that contradicts these polling lists or averages, to show him stronger than polls suggest...early voting reveals the polls seem to be largely right.

        This is where early voting is revealing, we've had it going on for long enough in enough places to have a sense of how to interpret it.  Nothing is happening to justify Romney's claims regarding his own internal polling.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:50:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  RAss: Romney 49-48 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, IM

    according to RCP.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:38:44 AM PST

  •  I look forward (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    C88, majcmb1

    I love your diaries, but I look forward to no longer obsessing over this one in the morning.

  •  CO-7 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    But we plan to keep monitoring all potentially competitive races right down to the wire

    Since you never mention CO-7, does that mean you consider it not competitive?

    Just Win, Baby. -- Al Rodgers, Feb. 24, 2012

    by OLinda on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:48:16 AM PST

  •  moving the polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mokurai

    XKCD's take on the tracking polls.

    (XKCD, in case you didn't know, is a weird & wonderful geeky webcomic.)

  •  Joe Donnelly Might be my 1 Lone "High" Light (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mokurai, mzbitca, Woody, 417els

    tomorrow. I'm going to have a tea bagger bat $hitty version of Not - My - Man Mitch as a Governator after tomorrow, and IN will go back to "the good 'ol days" of calling the state for Gov. Mittwit about 20 minutes after the polls close.

    "HERPES was more popular than Dick Cheney when he left office!" Rachel Maddow 5/23/12

    by CityLightsLover on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:52:03 AM PST

    •  Hope to grab House seats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CityLightsLover, JBraden

      I still have hope that we can grab one or two of the Indiana House seats. Mourdock muddied the waters (Oh, watch out! That's not mud!) so it's just speculation.

      But I'm speculating that tiny slivers of Repubs are highly disillusioned by the defeat of the venerable Bob Lugar and disgusted by the Rape Thing out of Mourdock's mouth. So one sliver will (a) do something else than vote tomorrow, and another sliver will (b) actually vote for the Democrat.

      In a couple of the contested districts, a sliver of 1 or 2% from column (a) and another 1 or 2% from column (b) could give us an upset.

  •  Thank God! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, 417els

    That that dreadful Mourdock is OUT!

  •  One of the stories of 2012 is if the Democrats (8+ / 0-)

    keep the Senate it is because once again the Tea Party destroyed Republicans' chances because the Tea Party Republican primary electorate chose these extreme candidates.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:55:22 AM PST

    •  Fingers crossed for a reprise performance in 2014. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, kleinburger

      How low can they go?

      •  Bigger issue with 2014 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wmdrpa

        is being aggressive in red states. I'm actually more confident about our chances than a lot of people, at least right now. (If we have a bad cycle, it could easily be horrendous for us.) The problem is that it looks like we have to play a lot of defense and are very limited in how much we can play offense. If we could be aggressive in all states, even ones that look completely hopeless for us right now, it might make a difference in the end.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:30:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Collins following Snowe out the door (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy, abgin

          would be a huge help there.  Otherwise, let's just hope for some juicy unelectable morons in Alaska (Joe Miller comeback!), North Carolina, etc.

          •  Tuff turf in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden

            About a third of the seats in 2014 are in the former Confederacy and allied Border States like Oklahoma and Kentucky. We'll be lucky if we can hold Louisiana and Arkansas. And in fact, Kentucky looks like one of our better chances to take a seat (and dump Mitch McConnell in the process!)

            Most of the other states don't look much more friendly to us, from Kansas to Utah to Idaho to Alaska.

            All the more important to win more seats this year, since we will likely lose some in 2014. (Don't think so? Go to 'Midterm Elections' in Wikipedia to see the daunting history.)

            So yeah, we need to win with even Blue Dogs like Kerrey in Nebraska and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. Yes, please give us Blue Dogs this year to have a margin going into the next election. Just as long as they'll vote for Harry Reid to be Majority Leader in January, 2015.

            •  You're right that the turf is tough, (0+ / 0-)

              but I'm not as worried about LA, AR, and AK as many.  All three incumbents from those states are from political legacy families.  Mary Landrieu has, I believe, the highest approvals of any politician from Luzianne, and attracts a good deal of crossover support (as well as continued support from a rejuvenating New Orleans).  Mark Pryor is still relatively popular and nowhere near as vulnerable as Blanche Lincoln; plus, the AR GOP bench isn't too deep.  Mark Begich is still relatively popular as well, and was the mayor of the state's largest city.  It also remains a distinct possibility that the toxic Sarah Palin will wade into the race (either as a candidate or a self-proclaimed kingmaker) and fuck things up badly there.

              The race I worry about is SD, especially if Tim Johnson retires.

          •  Hagan can hold her own in NC (0+ / 0-)

            ...IF (capital "I", capital "F") there's some positive results in the first half of the cycle.  But the Senate Dems have got to give her something to hang her hat on.  Put up against another head case like Liddy Dole (whom she unseated in 2008) she'd have an easier time of it.

            I still maintain that the thing that tipped the scale was Dole's "Godless" ad that ran a few weeks prior to the election.  Up to that point, it was a toss-up race.  But Dole tried to paint Hagan as a Satanist by making a spurious claim linking Hagan to some group whose name I can't even remember but is supposedly some kind of cult.  Anyway, that proved to be a bridge too far and it turned the tide for Hagan.

            But it probably DIDN'T turn the tide among GOP voters.  More likely the shift was among the state's significant Independent electorate.  Unaffiliated voters make up about 20-25% of the total, so they're a big wild card in every election.  Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin, and Republicans still outnumber Independents, but around here Unaffiliated is the new black.  And woe be unto the NC candidate of either party that forgets that.

            Based solely on conversations with a friend in AK, I'd say Begich is in the same kind of situation there.  But since I don't live there I can't speak to that with any authority.

            I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

            by mojo11 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:03:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think Kay Hagan will be the favorite (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              unless 2014 turns out to be another 2010 (which I think is doubtful).  She's an excellent campaigner, she connects well with the state, and the NC GOP bench isn't really that deep, especially with Pat McCrory likely to be in the governor's mansion.

              While the "Godless" ad certainly padded Hagan's MOV (she outperformed Bev Perdue and Barack Obama), the race was already tipping in her favor before it aired.  Liddy dropped that stinkbomb out of desperation more than anything else.

              •  Even if 2014 IS the new 2010 (0+ / 0-)

                I think Hagan can hold her own.  She's got broad based appeal AND she's got money of her own to put into the campaign (something Marshall decidedly didn't have in 2010).  It would take a smear of epic proportion and a strong challenger to unseat her.  The NCGOP isn't exactly a star-studded cast, but depending on what -- if any -- campaign finance reform happens in the wake of Democalypse 2012 that might not matter.  You gotta remember, this is the state that kept Jessie Helms in the Senate for six terms and Richard Burr for two and counting.

                As for the "Godless" ad, yes it was a Hail Mary by the Dole campaign, but up until it aired, polling showed them just about in a dead heat.  And Hagan didn't exactly mop the floor with Dole anyway.

                My best case looks like Hagan holding her seat in 2014 and Brad Miller displacing Richard "The Empty Suit" Burr in 2016.  Now if there was just some way to keep Pat McCrory out of the Governor's Mansion... or better yet, remove him once he gets there.  As shady as that guy is, that's NOT outside the realm of the possible.  But so far nothing's ever been able to stick to the guy.  But if he DID take a fall, he just might take Tillis and Stam with him.

                I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

                by mojo11 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:25:13 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I stand corrected. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  JBraden

                  Seems that Hagan DID pretty much mop the floor with Dole in 2008 winning 53-44 which was both the largest margin of defeat for any incumbent Senator that year and the largest margin of victory in a North Carolina Senate race in 30 years.

                  I'm happy to be wrong on that one because it makes 2014 look like an easier lift for the NCDP.

                  I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

                  by mojo11 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:07:16 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  2012 (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, JBraden, aamail6, jncca

      The Year the Tea Party Saved Obamacare

  •  SurveyUSA Says McCaskill's Up 15 In MO! (8+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    McCaskill gets 51 percent of the total, GOP Rep. Todd Akin gets 36 percent, and Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine sees 8 percent. The same poll shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney winning by 7 points, 50 percent to President Obama's 43 percent.
  •  I've been in Ind this week staying in Indianapolis (0+ / 0-)

    The ads for and against Donnelley have been all over the airwaves.  "Attacking his religion" seems to be Mourdocks favorite one.

    "I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man.'" J. R. Robertson.

    by NearlyNormal on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:58:21 AM PST

    •  Have you been contacted by OFA? (0+ / 0-)

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:03:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  BUT BUT THE TEABAGGERS SAY.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1

    Republican candidates lose because they're not conservative enough! How can this be?

    Rick Perry - the greatest scientist since Galileo!

    by Bobs Telecaster on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:01:52 AM PST

  •  I bet Indiana Republicans are regretting that (7+ / 0-)

    gerrymander of Donnelly's seat.  They gained a House seat they don't need at the cost of a Senate seat.

    •  They might not even get that! (6+ / 0-)
    •  If they hadn't forced Joe Donnelly out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, JBraden

      The redistricting gave Joe Donnelly a good, strong shove to get into the race for Senate. Heck, if you're probably gonna lose, but have some little chance of winning, might as well take your chances on the big one that's really worth winning. And without that, we'd be in the same sorry shape in Indiana as we are in Tennessee with a flaky Some Dude on our line for Senator.

    •  the demographics have changed too (0+ / 0-)

      Elkhart Co used to be really really old line republican . But now there are more out of work factory workers, who are slowly going back to work.  There was a huge latino population too that disappeared when the crash struck and Elkhart was the poster child for it.  There are also many auto industry supply chain manufacturers there too, and those workers will vote their paychecks.

      When the Dems walked out of the legislature it was a watershed moment here.  The differences between the down state so called farmers (who drive around in Lincolns and Caddies in their dry cleaned overalls) who are subsidized to not grow anything and the upstate urban centers is something to watch.

      Indiana went for Obama in 2008.  All we can hope for is a huge turnout tomorrow.

  •  Latino Vote (11+ / 0-)
  •  Final NEC NH Poll: Obama 50 Mitt 46 (11+ / 0-)

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:06:26 AM PST

  •  Just got robopolled by some group called... (0+ / 0-)

    Study America.  Anyone ever hear of them?  Some folks on the Democratic Underground have been polled by them as well.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:16:39 AM PST

  •  No matter how much you may loathe (0+ / 0-)

    the ever-egregious Mike "Thirty" Pence, you are loath to rule out a gubernatorial upset.

    Me too.

    America—We built that!

    by Mokurai on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:19:59 AM PST

  •  RAND: 0 50%, R 45% (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, MBishop1

    (That's rounded.  The differential is actually 4.4%)

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

  •  Romney suggests he may lose... (5+ / 0-)

    First time he's done that...

    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:21:39 AM PST

  •  UNH house races (10+ / 0-)

    NH 1:  Shea-Porter 49-46
    NH 2:  Kuster 53-43

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:23:02 AM PST

  •  Latino Decisions poll: 72-22 (10+ / 0-)
    The President’s support continued its steady climb with 64% saying they are certain to vote for him on election day and another 8% leaning towards him. Romney’s supporters also remained consistent, but overall he was unable to make significant inroads with Latino voters. Week 11 polling found 22% said they were certain to or might vote for Romney, compared to 24% during Week 1 polling.
    http://www.latinodecisions.com/...
  •  Colorado (13+ / 0-)
  •  VA RAss: Romney 50-48 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, IM, MBishop1, PALiberal1

    Same result as he got last time.

    In '08, his final VA underestimated Obama's margin by 2.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:32:39 AM PST

    •  Rasmussen is going down with the ship (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, MBishop1, PALiberal1

      My guess is every toss up poll he releases today will have Obama behind. He is releasing an Ohio poll and NH later. I think this is the year either PPP or Rasmussen loses credibility.
      PPP had Obama up 4 ras down two I think it will be more like
      O 50 R 49 others 1. My take on PPP they are to optimistic on Va, FL and NC but look in the ballpark elsewhere.

  •  Remember, remember, the 5th of November! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, itskevin, Woody, 417els

    Happy Guy Fawkes Day! :-)

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:33:45 AM PST

  •  RI-01 very vulnerable (4+ / 0-)

    As an RI-01 voter, I unfortunately agree with the assessment of "too close to call." David Scharfenberg in this week's Phoenix notes that Cicilline did manage to gerrymander the redistricting heavily in his favor. But he still needs to win by a huge margin in the city of Providence (including the Latino vote) and the "tony" East Bay.
    Another down-ballot RI race to watch: The Speaker of the House, Gordon Fox, is a gay man of mixed Cape Verdean background. He was relatively progressive, but as Speaker has blocked gay marriage, continued the awful practices of cramming through a lot of stuff in the last 6 hours of the legislative session with no public notice or hearings, and was heavily implicated in the 38 Studios / Curt Schilling fiasco that is costing the state at least $100 million in bond guarantees. His only opponent is an independent progressive named Mark Binder. Best guess is that Binder will not be able to pull off a win, but will make a good enough showing to force Fox to pay more attention to his relatively progressive home district base, and clean up some of the shenanigans at the State House. (Disclosure: I voted for Binder.)

  •  Ding! (14+ / 0-)
  •  (MO-Sen) SUSA: 51/36 for Claire McCaskill! (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    That's a much wider margin than other polls, so I'm cautiously optimistic on that one. Other good news is Nixon leads Spence 48/39 for gov.

    50/43 Rmoney for pres, but fortunately Obama doesn't need Missouri to win.

    "How come when it’s us, it’s an abortion, and when it’s a chicken, it’s an omelette?" - George Carlin

    by yg17 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:55:01 AM PST

  •  PPP or Rasmussen is going to look foolish (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, bythesea, PALiberal1

    My guess is Rasmussen doesn't care how bad he looks because he gets his money from the right wing and almost everyone knows he is right wing propaganda.
    Still the polls coming from PPP look almost to good.

  •  Rumors (0+ / 0-)

    If Aaron Schock plans on running for governor, there will be other "rumors" he will have to address.  

    "Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me--and I welcome their hatred." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by djbender on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:29:37 AM PST

  •  Ohio Poll: Obama up 50 to 48.5 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, JBraden, askew

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:38:32 AM PST

  •  Iowa politics watchers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    have until Tuesday at 7 am to enter Bleeding Heartland's election prediction contest. I am not too worried about Obama, much more concerned about the Iowa House and Senate races.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM PST

  •  UT-04: Jon Huntsman Sr. endorsed Matheson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1

    I think that's enough to seal Matheson's re-election to Congress.  Jon Huntsman Sr. is super rich and a big name to the community of Utah.

    But we'll see.  It's not like Mia Love doesn't have momentum.  Still, she'll be a one-term Congresswoman if elected tomorrow.

    •  Why would she only serve one term? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, sapelcovits

      UT-04 is a very red district (and not ancestrally Democratic either), and she'd have the incumbent advantage.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:21:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Never underestimate the power of Utah (0+ / 0-)

        Utah is conservative, very conservative but if you talk to people out there, they're moderate in attitude.  They aren't necessarily Tea Party people, unless you're like Jason Chaffetz, the would-be Congressman who will either get defeated for re-election tomorrow or in 2014.

        The point being is that Jim Matheson is more Mormon than Mia Love is.  Love is a convert whereas Matheson has been raised Mormon since he was a child.  There's a big difference in that analogy.  A lot of Mormons in Utah will go to those who are not converts.  That is why Mia Love doesn't lead Matheson by double digits, if any polls show she leads at all.

        Again, I will point out that Jon Huntsman Sr (father of Jon Huntsman Jr., former Mitt Romney rival in 2008 Republican Presidential Primaries) is a household name in the Mormon community in Utah.  A lot of Mormons will tell you they know and respect Jon Huntsman Sr.  His endorsement of Matheson for re-election indicates he's probably uncomfortable with a Mormon convert representing a district in Utah.  Mia Love is and so is Glenn Beck.

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