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As it stands (SOS report of Friday's return)  in CO 65.11% of registered Dem's have voted versus 66.36% R's and U's 50.98% on active voter rolls. Yes the raw vote for R's is a 38017 partisan advantage for R's but in CO, Rep's vote at 87% for top of the ticket candidates versus Dem's vote at 93%, so I could say the following projection and U's vote at a lean rate of at least 51%,though recent polls have shown it to be 53-54%, I will say 52% but still use 51%.

Dem 527839(D) + 78726(R) + 229357(U) = 835922  51.5%
Rep  526,859(R) + 39729(D) + 220368 (U) = 786956     48.49%

Now as bellweather counties go in Colorado it is not Boulder, or suburban Arapahoe or Jefferson but deep Red El Paso County because if a Democratic statewide candidate polls over 34% than the Democrat will prevail in the rest of the state. History lesson

2010: US Senate; Buck 60.26%; Bennet (D) 34.14% Bennet won 1.4%
2008 President: McCain (R) (58.69%); Obama 39.86%
2006 Governor, Beapreau (R) 57.16%, Ritter (D) 39.73%
2004Senator Coors (R) 64.41% Salazar (D) 34.09%

Now what is going on in El Paso County? Turnout my count is more current than SOS's Friday, in that I have Saturday returns.

Democrats   60.51%  41764
Republicans  63.18% 88752
Unaffiliated  47.12%  46379

Local fundamental assumptions:  Democrat 42.12%  Republican 57.88%

Note Republicans in El Paso vote better in the polls by 2-3%.

So besides all the hand ringing, all the pre election news advertising hype and the polls Colorado is in very good shape.

Now the ground game later today.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty~Ben Franklin

    by RWN on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:36:40 AM PST

  •  The final PPP poll just hit twitter (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1, fou, Thinking Fella, Plu, elmo, AreDeutz

    They have Colorado at O52 R46

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:41:51 AM PST

  •  Nice analysis. CO is the one state where I (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1, elmo, SuetheRedWA, AreDeutz

    Perceive Romney having a decent operation.  I think the evangelical community and mormon volunteers have helped him keep an energized presence there.  However, when the Dem participation rate is high, we have a better chance of winning statewide because a lot of indies lean Dem and Latino voters are supporting Dems strongly there.  I did some calls to CO this weekend and most seem to have voted or were planning to vote and didn't really need the reminder.

    I think we win CO by a 3-5 point margin.  Could be as high as 6 if latino turnout is anything like what latino focused orgs are expecting.  

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:45:19 AM PST

    •  This Analysis is Deeply Flawed (0+ / 0-)

      Sorry, but he rejects the wisdom of every other politician in Colorado that Arapahoe, Jeffco and Larimer are the counties that swing Colorado.  The reality is that El Paso hasn't changed one whit over the last twenty years, but especially Arapahoe and Jeffco have.  When I was Republican in Jeffco in 1990 (yes, you read that correctly) Jeffco's entire delegation to the state house was Republican.  Now, the state reps are 4-4 and the State Senators are 3-1 for the Dems.  Same kind of numbers in Arapahoe.  It is suburban Denver which controls what will happen inthis election.  Watch those counties.

      •  No, it is true that Arapahoe, Jeffco and Larimer (0+ / 0-)

        are swing when it comes to electing local politicos but when it comes to statewide elections those counties are pretty consistent in D vs R top of the ticket voting. Look it up

        When it comes to winning statewide the problem was when El Paso would fall below 34% and then overtake Boulder and Denver Counties with the Douglas, Weld Counties.

        Getting over 38% is always the goal in El Paso County...34% is the bottom.

        They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty~Ben Franklin

        by RWN on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:48:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I had trouble following your conclusion. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Local fundamental assumptions:  Democrat 42.12%  Republican 57.88%
    I am not sure what you are assuming.

    Note Republicans in El Paso vote better in the polls by 2-3%.
    Vote better than what?

    Democrats   60.51%  41764
    Republicans  63.18% 88752
    Unaffiliated  47.12%  46379

    adds up to 170%

    Sorry for my density, as a Coloradoan, I am interested in your diary. Thanks.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:48:51 AM PST

    •  those are turnout figures (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      majcmb1, shmuelman, AreDeutz

      The assumption then goes voting where in both El Paso and statewide 87% (actually in El Paso it is 85% vote Rep) and D's vote at 93% for each top of the ticket candidate, in El Paso the U's vote at 54% Dem leaning.

      So 60% of D's have turned out and 63% of R's have turned out and that is 3% better for D's than 2008.

      They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty~Ben Franklin

      by RWN on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:52:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very important point (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1, elmo, AreDeutz

    Romney will carry El Paso county, no doubt. But if the margins are narrowed here in the county that will help Obama carry the state, which is why I've spent the weekend canvassing here in the Springs reminding people where and when to vote if they haven't already. Depending on my schedule tomorrow I will do last minute canvassing again. Hopefully we will get our supporters out to the polls in the county.

  •  RWN - what's going on with House races? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I would  love to hear that Pace can beat Tipton for the 3rd, but can't find anything to substantiate that (or not).


    "I can't do it by myself. No president can. Remember: Change doesn't happen from the top. It happens because of you." B Obama, 2008

    by nzanne on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:15:27 AM PST

    •  I Believe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That it will be the status quo with all incumbents re-elected or a 3D-4R split.  Sorry, I just don't see any upsets.  Frankly, if you look at the races in Colorado, I think you will see what will happen to the whole US House.  If Perlmutter (D) goes down or is in a close race in the 7th district, you will see no change whatsoever in the house.  If Miklosi wins or comes cloe in the 6th district, you will see a 10-15 seat pick-up by the Dems.  Only if Pace wins (which would take a miracle) will you see any chance of a Dem takeover of the House.  Once again, as Colorado goes, os goes the nation.

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