As it stands (SOS report of Friday's return) in CO 65.11% of registered Dem's have voted versus 66.36% R's and U's 50.98% on active voter rolls. Yes the raw vote for R's is a 38017 partisan advantage for R's but in CO, Rep's vote at 87% for top of the ticket candidates versus Dem's vote at 93%, so I could say the following projection and U's vote at a lean rate of at least 51%,though recent polls have shown it to be 53-54%, I will say 52% but still use 51%.
Dem 527839(D) + 78726(R) + 229357(U) = 835922 51.5%
Rep 526,859(R) + 39729(D) + 220368 (U) = 786956 48.49%
Now as bellweather counties go in Colorado it is not Boulder, or suburban Arapahoe or Jefferson but deep Red El Paso County because if a Democratic statewide candidate polls over 34% than the Democrat will prevail in the rest of the state. History lesson
2010: US Senate; Buck 60.26%; Bennet (D) 34.14% Bennet won 1.4%
2008 President: McCain (R) (58.69%); Obama 39.86%
2006 Governor, Beapreau (R) 57.16%, Ritter (D) 39.73%
2004Senator Coors (R) 64.41% Salazar (D) 34.09%
Now what is going on in El Paso County? Turnout my count is more current than SOS's Friday, in that I have Saturday returns.
Democrats 60.51% 41764
Republicans 63.18% 88752
Unaffiliated 47.12% 46379
Local fundamental assumptions: Democrat 42.12% Republican 57.88%
Note Republicans in El Paso vote better in the polls by 2-3%.
So besides all the hand ringing, all the pre election news advertising hype and the polls Colorado is in very good shape.
Now the ground game later today.