It's that time! We're just over 24 hours for finding out who has won the Presidential election, and it seems like everyone is making their predictions either based on data (most people) or "feel" (a lot of conservatives). It's time for me to join the fray. The bottom line:
Popular Vote: Obama 50.5, Romney 48.5
Electoral College: Obama 303, Romney 235
Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47 (0 net gain for either party)
House: Republicans 235, Democrats 200.
Details after the jump if you dare!
Presidential Race: You don't have to be a genius to see why Obama will win. He leads in polling aggregates in enough states that put him over the top, and the leads are pretty significant in places like Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. I think the closest states will be those Obama doesn't necessarily have to win: Florida, Colorado and Virginia. Generally, there are 9 states considered swing states. No, I'm not buying Mittmentum in PA, MI or MN. Obama is gonna win those pretty handily. The polls say so, and Mitt is only trying to "expand the map" because he has to. I'll go through each swing state individually, from most likely Obama to least likely Obama.
Nevada: The Twitters tell me that Romney advisers are privately conceding Nevada, and they have good reason. According to Nevada political guru Jon Ralston, Obama is doing well enough in early voting to secured a comfortable win, even though his margins are down from his 12 point victory in 2008. Most of the state votes early, so these votes are baked in. Also, Nevada polls have signficantly underestimated Democrats in two straight elections, so even a small lead seems more significant.
Margin: Obama 53, Romney 45.
Wisconsin: I'm not sure I understand Republican optimism here. The nomination of Paul Ryan really hasn't moved the polls much. Obama leads in the RCP average by about 4 points. That's just too much ground to make up.
Margin: Obama 52, Romney 47.
Ohio: This one is the big kahuna. There have been hundreds of polls in Ohio, and only GOP-leaning robofirms have ever had Romney ahead. The polls would have to be systemically wrong for Romney to win here. Polls CAN be wrong, but there are just so many data points that I find it extremely unlikely. Ohio is slightly GOP-leaning relative to the nation as a whole, but Obama had done well with his intense focus on the state. He has been attacking Romney in ads since the summer, and has been especially forceful on the auto bailout, which will help him in rust belt areas in which he might have otherwise struggled, like Toledo.
Margin: Obama 51, Romney 47.
Iowa: The hawkeye state will be much closer this time around than in 2008. Obama can't rely on minority votes in this extremely white state, so he has to maintain the support of middle-class whites, which is difficult. Having said that, the toplines still show a consistent, narrow Obama advantage. The DMR poll, which is supposedly very reliable, has Obama up 5. I think the margin will be slightly less than that.
Margin: Obama 50, Romney: 47
New Hampshire: This one hasn't been as highly polled as Ohio, but polling has shown a consistent, but very small Obama advantage.
Margin: Obama 50, Romney 48.
Colorado: This state has really shifted in the past week, as Obama has moved ahead nationally. Obama has gained a lead in the polling averages. Colorado is another state where polls have underestimated Democrats in two straight elections. I think Obama wins it narrowly.
Margin: Obama 50, Romney 48.
Virginia: This state will be very, very close, but I think Obama has pulled slightly ahead. I did canvassing work there this weekend and was extremely impressed with the Democratic ground game (I know that's anecdotal). Obama has moved ahead in the polling averages, and Virginia has a lot of "new coalition" voters (racial minorities and educated, upper middle class white professionals) that will put Obama over the top.
Margin: Obama 49, Romney 48.
Florida: This one will be very, very close. Polls show a very narrow Romney advantage. Obama has done well in early voting, apparently, but not quite good enough to make me confident of a win. Plus, the voter suppression effort in this state seems to be going swimmingly. This will be the closest result in the nation, but Romney will win it.
Margin: Romney 49.5, Obama 49.
North Carolina: I think pundits are discounting Obama's chances here too much. Romney does have a lead in polling aggregates, but Obama has held his own in early voting, and the state has more "new coalition" voters than it did in 2008, when Obama won it narrowly. North Carolina is not a tipping point state. If Obama wins it, it means he's already won comfortably nationwide. As a result, Obama didn't really campaign in the Tar Hell state, which probably brings down his margin a bit. Romney takes it.
Margin: Romney 50, Obama 48.
Senate: The Republicans have really shot themselves in the foot this cycle in the United States Senate. What looked like an almost sure majority for Republicans now seems like a bygone reality. I'm projecting that each party gains 3 seats, which would keep the Senate at its current 53-47 margin. If there is a point or two shift nationally, though, Democrats could have 56 seats in the Senate, which is truly remarkable. I'd say there's also a 1-2% chance the Democrats got 58 seats, but I won't hold my breath.
GOP pickups: NE, ND and MT. Despite a nice little run by Bob Kerrey, I think Deb Fischer will ride Nebraska's fundamentals to replace the retiring Ben Nelson (D). Heidt Heidtkamp has run a superb race in North Dakota, and I would not be surprised at all to see her defeat Rick Berg, the Republican. But I think state fundamentals will rue the day, slightly. I think Berg wins by a point or two. The race in Montana between Rehberg and Tester will be the closest in the country, and may not be decided on election night./ Tester is a very strong candidate and good fit for his home state, but Rehberg has the advantage of Romney's coattails in this red state. I wouldn't be surprised to see either candidate win, but with a gun to my head, I'll go with Rehberg by a hair, maybe .3%.
Dem pickups: ME, MA and IN. Maine looks like a shoo-in for Angus King to replace Olympia Snow. King is an independent, and hasn't yet said which party he'll caucus with when he joins the Senate. But the guy endorsed Obama, so I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't join Harry Reid's brigade. Elizabeth Warren has run a superb campaign and is now favored to beat Scott Brown. Fundamentals of the state will sink Brown, who is still quite popular. The most surprising pickup is in Indiana. If Republicans had renominated Dick Lugar, this would be an easy GOP hold. But they nominated Richard "Rape is a Gift from God" Mourdock, who is a wingnut among wingnuts. And the Democrats nominated a politically appealing candidate, Joe Donnelly, who will be a nuisance in the Senate, but far better than Mourdock.
GOP Holds: The Republicans will hold Arizona relatively comfortably (5 point win). Jeff Flake has taken back the lead from Democrat Richard Carmona, with a series of effective ads. This was fun while it lasted, but Arizona is a Republican state and Flake is not a terrible candidate. The toughest race for me to project (besides maybe MT) is NV. Dean Heller leads narrowly in almost all the polls, but as I mentioned above, polls have a history of underestimating the Democratic vote. Berkeley could ride Obama's coattails to a narrow victory, but for now I'm betting on Heller pulling it out by a point or so.
Dem Holds: I think the toughest hold for the Democrats is probably in Wisconsin, where progressive Tammy Baldwin is in a very tight race with GOP dinosaur Tommy Thompson. Polls point to a slight Baldwin lead. With Obama winning the state, I think he pulls Baldwin over the top. I think Democrats will hold seats in VA, OH, FL and NM relatively easily, which remarkable given where we were a year ago.
House of Representatives: The generic ballot is about tied. But because Republicans have now been in control of redistricting the past two times, a tie goes to the GOP. I also think that Democrats have squandered opportunities in a number of races. Having said that, I think the Democrats will still pick up seats, 7 according to my projection. I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats gained up to 15 seats or so, or perhaps none at all. House polling has just been a little too sparse to get a firm grip on races. But I think it is very unlikely, sadly, that we'll see Speaker Pelosi again come January. If you're interested in who I think will win individual races (yes, I picked each one), let me know in the comments!
Overall, it looks like this has turned into a status quo election, which is somewhat weird given that polls show great distrust in our government as a whole. But that's where I think we're headed tomorrow. Agree or disagree? I'd love to see your comments.