The online website INTRADE is a joke! The market is easily manipulated, has a shallow market and should never be quoted by anyone on matters of importance.
Now lets look at some facts to prove this.
In predicting who will be elected president there are really two types of operations: Polling analysis websites and bettors. Let's look at how they stand as of the writing of this diary.
Of the websites that look at polling analysis we have the following:
1. Nate Silver's 538 gives Obama an 86.3 % chance of winning.
2. The Princeton Election Consortium gives Obama a 98.3% chance of winning.
Now let's look at betting sites where people can actually bet money and take a risk:
1. The Iowa Electronic Market has Obama at 74.5% chance of winning.
2. A consortium of the betting wagers at This Link has Obama at a roughly 78% chance of winning
Now let's look at INTRADE:
Currently INTRADE has Obama's chances of winning at 67.2%
INTRADE is roughly 20% points less than 538 and about 10% points less than other betting sites.
Well, there are lots of reasons and potential attempts to influence media coverage is certainly one possibility. Other non-sinister reasons may apply as well such as transaction costs, limited market, people voting their favorite candidate no matter what etc.
Without knowing the reasons or even carrying about the reasons it is clear to me and I hope all of you that INTRADE should not be looked at as a serious predictor of elections and should never be quoted as a credible source.