Sam Wang:
Democrats and Republicans are tied in the generic Congressional ballot. But Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the House, to a significant extent because redistricting and incumbency give them a +2.5% advantage. A nongeneric, district-by-district look also favors maintained Republican control. Based on these two lines of evidence, Democrats appear likely to gain 2-22 seats, but their takeover probability is only 13-23%. This estimate does not take into account one unknown influence: in the last two weeks, President Obama has taken the lead in national surveys, moving up by about 1.5%. This raises the possibility of hidden House strength for Democrats in the form of Presidential coattails.
http://election.princeton.edu/...
At least we've tried. Still hoping for a surprise. We'll see. :)