My final predictions for all Virginia localities are below the fold. I use registration data, partisan trends over time, and demographic data to generate these projections. I am using data for the last four presidential elections to model the general partisan gravity of each locality.
I have also projected the margins in the event that the election were an exact tie. Feel free to use the tie margins as quick reference sheet for poll watching tomorrow night. Some things to note:
1) Third party vote will be 1.5%. Gary Johnson will narrowly outperform Virgil Goode, but Virgil Goode will reach the 3 - 5% range in his old Congressional district.
2) President Obama and Tim Kaine will join Mark Warner in Virginia's 2 million vote club. Mitt Romney and George Allen will not break 2 million. [ I don't worry about projecting for Kaine, because he will outperform Obama for many reasons--one being that the Mason & Dixon line, though it has sloughed down towards Lynchburg, still exists as a cultural delimiter].
3) Obama's worst negative margins should be in Hanover and Chesterfield counties, which should drive him a combined 40,000+ votes in the hole. Romney actually needs to do better than +50K in those two localities in order to win Virginia. Either that, or he'll need to find a lot of new voter in VA Beach and NOVA. Fairfax County will go to Obama by over 100,000 votes . . . again. Fairfax CO vote usually comes in last, so don't freak out if Obama is down until all the Fairfax absentees have been reported.
4) Romney should flip a few localities that McCain lost: Staunton City, King & Queen County, Buckingham County. Obama may be able to flip Fluvanna County, which has a large population of people who commute to work in Albemarle County and Charlottesville. None of these are big prizes, though. More importantly, Loudon County will not swing back to red.
5) The worst negative margin change from 2008 for Obama will be Virginia Beach. He could lose that by 15,000 more than he did in 2008 and still win comfortably statewide. His most positive margin changes will be in Arlington County and Richmond, where new voters and a stickier partisan lean will keep team blue strong.
6) Obama will win absentees by over 100,000 votes. He beat McCain in this area by about 125,000.
COUNTY/CITY |
Obama |
Romney |
Projected Margin '12 |
Margin in Tie
'12 |
Obama Perc. |
Romney Perc. |
Margin '08 |
ACCOMACK
COUNTY |
7598 |
8675 |
-1077 |
-1622 |
46.00% |
52.52% |
-226 |
ALBEMARLE
COUNTY |
32805 |
23124 |
9681 |
7821 |
57.79% |
40.73% |
9216 |
ALEXANDRIA
CITY |
55565 |
21380 |
34185 |
31671 |
71.15% |
27.38% |
31292 |
ALLEGHANY
COUNTY |
3309 |
3907 |
-598 |
-843 |
45.18% |
53.34% |
-162 |
AMELIA
COUNTY |
2463 |
4528 |
-2065 |
-2295 |
34.71% |
63.81% |
-1482 |
AMHERST
COUNTY |
5948 |
9521 |
-3573 |
-4085 |
37.88% |
60.64% |
-2376 |
APPOMATTOX
COUNTY |
2537 |
5481 |
-2945 |
-3223 |
31.17% |
67.35% |
-2262 |
ARLINGTON
COUNTY |
90011 |
34566 |
55445 |
51340 |
71.19% |
27.34% |
49118 |
AUGUSTA
COUNTY |
9630 |
26306 |
-16676 |
-17843 |
26.40% |
72.12% |
-13295 |
BATH
COUNTY |
936 |
1411 |
-474 |
-554 |
39.31% |
59.22% |
-306 |
BEDFORD
CITY |
1138 |
1596 |
-458 |
-550 |
41.02% |
57.50% |
-289 |
BEDFORD
COUNTY |
10675 |
27630 |
-16954 |
-18213 |
27.46% |
71.07% |
-13403 |
BLAND
COUNTY |
793 |
2281 |
-1488 |
-1587 |
25.42% |
73.10% |
-1167 |
BOTETOURT
COUNTY |
5327 |
12730 |
-7402 |
-7995 |
29.07% |
69.45% |
-5778 |
BRISTOL
CITY |
2531 |
5117 |
-2586 |
-2838 |
32.61% |
65.92% |
-1914 |
BRUNSWICK
COUNTY |
4813 |
2931 |
1882 |
1615 |
61.23% |
37.29% |
2096 |
BUCHANAN
COUNTY |
3448 |
5047 |
-1599 |
-1887 |
39.99% |
58.53% |
-478 |
BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
3463 |
3736 |
-272 |
-516 |
47.40% |
51.12% |
61 |
BUENA
VISTA CITY |
1134 |
1540 |
-407 |
-495 |
41.77% |
56.76% |
-174 |
CAMPBELL
COUNTY |
7779 |
19422 |
-11644 |
-12545 |
28.17% |
70.35% |
-9353 |
CAROLINE
COUNTY |
7456 |
6350 |
1105 |
644 |
53.21% |
45.32% |
1546 |
CARROLL
COUNTY |
3878 |
9102 |
-5224 |
-5650 |
29.44% |
69.09% |
-4078 |
CHARLES
CITY COUNTY |
2771 |
1335 |
1437 |
1296 |
66.50% |
32.02% |
1550 |
CHARLOTTE
COUNTY |
2447 |
3407 |
-961 |
-1162 |
41.18% |
57.34% |
-667 |
CHARLOTTESVILLE
CITY |
18718 |
4752 |
13965 |
13207 |
78.57% |
19.95% |
11627 |
CHESAPEAKE
CITY |
54808 |
58361 |
-3554 |
-7342 |
47.71% |
50.81% |
1369 |
CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY |
77843 |
96756 |
-18913 |
-24715 |
43.93% |
54.60% |
-12103 |
CLARKE
COUNTY |
3528 |
4321 |
-793 |
-1054 |
44.28% |
54.24% |
-383 |
COLONIAL
HEIGHTS CITY |
2399 |
6534 |
-4135 |
-4430 |
26.46% |
72.06% |
-3599 |
COVINGTON
CITY |
1226 |
1109 |
117 |
37 |
51.73% |
46.80% |
284 |
CRAIG
COUNTY |
811 |
1894 |
-1082 |
-1171 |
29.55% |
68.97% |
-818 |
CULPEPER
COUNTY |
9178 |
12288 |
-3109 |
-3819 |
42.13% |
56.40% |
-1909 |
CUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
2210 |
2547 |
-336 |
-498 |
45.78% |
52.74% |
-163 |
DANVILLE
CITY |
12116 |
8163 |
3953 |
3257 |
58.86% |
39.66% |
3991 |
DICKENSON
COUNTY |
2859 |
3508 |
-649 |
-867 |
44.24% |
54.28% |
-46 |
DINWIDDIE
COUNTY |
6221 |
7259 |
-1038 |
-1489 |
45.47% |
53.05% |
-280 |
EMPORIA
CITY |
1746 |
946 |
800 |
709 |
63.90% |
34.62% |
805 |
ESSEX
COUNTY |
3067 |
2652 |
415 |
224 |
52.84% |
45.68% |
555 |
FAIRFAX
CITY |
6493 |
4754 |
1739 |
1356 |
56.88% |
41.64% |
1884 |
FAIRFAX
COUNTY |
332058 |
220297 |
111761 |
93338 |
59.23% |
39.29% |
109365 |
FALLS
CHURCH CITY |
5278 |
2227 |
3050 |
2805 |
69.28% |
29.24% |
2725 |
FAUQUIER
COUNTY |
14927 |
21631 |
-6704 |
-7922 |
40.23% |
58.29% |
-4611 |
FLOYD
COUNTY |
2798 |
4873 |
-2074 |
-2330 |
35.94% |
62.58% |
-1504 |
FLUVANNA
COUNTY |
6107 |
6764 |
-657 |
-1094 |
46.75% |
51.77% |
-235 |
FRANKLIN
CITY |
2700 |
1599 |
1101 |
953 |
61.88% |
36.65% |
1243 |
FRANKLIN
COUNTY |
9350 |
17327 |
-7977 |
-8865 |
34.53% |
63.99% |
-5796 |
FREDERICK
COUNTY |
13847 |
24142 |
-10294 |
-11541 |
35.91% |
62.61% |
-7188 |
FREDERICKSBURG
CITY |
7822 |
4501 |
3321 |
2926 |
62.54% |
35.99% |
2742 |
GALAX CITY |
948 |
1383 |
-436 |
-515 |
40.05% |
58.47% |
-265 |
GILES
COUNTY |
2937 |
4908 |
-1971 |
-2234 |
36.89% |
61.64% |
-1270 |
GLOUCESTER
COUNTY |
6664 |
13566 |
-6901 |
-7568 |
32.46% |
66.07% |
-5173 |
GOOCHLAND
COUNTY |
4758 |
8620 |
-3863 |
-4304 |
35.04% |
63.48% |
-2830 |
GRAYSON
COUNTY |
2250 |
4926 |
-2676 |
-2913 |
30.89% |
67.63% |
-2060 |
GREENE
COUNTY |
3372 |
5883 |
-2511 |
-2817 |
35.89% |
62.63% |
-1806 |
GREENSVILLE
COUNTY |
2994 |
1800 |
1194 |
1029 |
61.53% |
37.00% |
1393 |
HALIFAX
COUNTY |
7995 |
9062 |
-1067 |
-1647 |
46.18% |
52.34% |
-474 |
HAMPTON
CITY |
49595 |
21801 |
27794 |
25400 |
68.44% |
30.08% |
26441 |
HANOVER
COUNTY |
18146 |
41921 |
-23775 |
-25745 |
29.76% |
68.76% |
-18897 |
HARRISONBURG
CITY |
10235 |
7448 |
2788 |
2215 |
57.03% |
41.50% |
2396 |
HENRICO
COUNTY |
91863 |
73850 |
18013 |
12483 |
54.62% |
43.91% |
18942 |
HENRY
COUNTY |
10178 |
14102 |
-3925 |
-4756 |
41.30% |
57.22% |
-2640 |
HIGHLAND
COUNTY |
484 |
877 |
-393 |
-440 |
35.03% |
63.49% |
-340 |
HOPEWELL
CITY |
5268 |
4273 |
994 |
671 |
54.39% |
44.13% |
1136 |
ISLE OF
WIGHT COUNTY |
8566 |
12795 |
-4229 |
-4937 |
39.51% |
59.01% |
-2685 |
JAMES CITY
COUNTY |
18286 |
24319 |
-6033 |
-7438 |
42.29% |
56.24% |
-3560 |
KING &
QUEEN COUNTY |
1840 |
1888 |
-48 |
-175 |
48.62% |
49.90% |
155 |
KING
GEORGE COUNTY |
4830 |
7107 |
-2277 |
-2666 |
39.87% |
58.66% |
-1415 |
KING
WILLIAM COUNTY |
3346 |
5674 |
-2328 |
-2625 |
36.55% |
61.97% |
-1622 |
LANCASTER
COUNTY |
3024 |
3668 |
-643 |
-874 |
44.52% |
54.00% |
-412 |
LEE COUNTY |
2847 |
6539 |
-3692 |
-4000 |
29.88% |
68.64% |
-2606 |
LEXINGTON
CITY |
1884 |
1170 |
714 |
616 |
60.78% |
37.74% |
629 |
LOUDOUN
COUNTY |
87656 |
78642 |
9014 |
3610 |
51.93% |
46.59% |
11509 |
LOUISA
COUNTY |
7129 |
9402 |
-2274 |
-2821 |
42.49% |
56.04% |
-1204 |
LUNENBURG
COUNTY |
2536 |
2967 |
-431 |
-619 |
45.41% |
53.12% |
-197 |
LYNCHBURG
CITY |
18279 |
21759 |
-3480 |
-4783 |
44.98% |
53.54% |
-1369 |
MADISON
COUNTY |
2750 |
4038 |
-1288 |
-1517 |
39.91% |
58.61% |
-896 |
MANASSAS
CITY |
8470 |
6941 |
1530 |
1022 |
54.15% |
44.37% |
1543 |
MANASSAS
PARK CITY |
2863 |
1949 |
914 |
756 |
58.61% |
39.91% |
829 |
MARTINSVILLE
CITY |
3986 |
2245 |
1741 |
1526 |
63.02% |
35.50% |
1828 |
MATHEWS
COUNTY |
1773 |
3695 |
-1922 |
-2104 |
31.94% |
66.58% |
-1522 |
MECKLENBURG
COUNTY |
7024 |
8341 |
-1318 |
-1839 |
45.04% |
53.49% |
-690 |
MIDDLESEX
COUNTY |
2206 |
3752 |
-1546 |
-1746 |
36.48% |
62.04% |
-1154 |
MONTGOMERY
COUNTY |
22588 |
22162 |
426 |
-1056 |
49.73% |
48.79% |
2003 |
NELSON
COUNTY |
4211 |
3799 |
412 |
138 |
51.80% |
46.72% |
744 |
NEW KENT
COUNTY |
3625 |
7686 |
-4061 |
-4428 |
31.57% |
66.95% |
-2892 |
NEWPORT
NEWS CITY |
53027 |
29804 |
23223 |
20423 |
63.07% |
35.45% |
23305 |
NORFOLK
CITY |
64349 |
26024 |
38324 |
35252 |
70.15% |
28.37% |
38005 |
NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
3592 |
2780 |
811 |
593 |
55.53% |
42.99% |
1087 |
NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
3185 |
4291 |
-1105 |
-1358 |
41.98% |
56.55% |
-729 |
NORTON
CITY |
704 |
843 |
-139 |
-191 |
44.84% |
53.69% |
-1 |
NOTTOWAY
COUNTY |
3203 |
3613 |
-411 |
-643 |
46.29% |
52.23% |
-86 |
ORANGE
COUNTY |
7135 |
9489 |
-2354 |
-2907 |
42.29% |
56.24% |
-1399 |
PAGE
COUNTY |
3977 |
6408 |
-2431 |
-2784 |
37.73% |
60.79% |
-1806 |
PATRICK
COUNTY |
2708 |
5995 |
-3288 |
-3575 |
30.65% |
67.87% |
-2612 |
PETERSBURG
CITY |
15113 |
1675 |
13438 |
12885 |
88.69% |
9.83% |
12191 |
PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
11006 |
20057 |
-9051 |
-10097 |
34.91% |
63.62% |
-7315 |
POQUOSON
CITY |
1622 |
5724 |
-4102 |
-4341 |
21.76% |
76.77% |
-3481 |
PORTSMOUTH
CITY |
32496 |
14715 |
17781 |
16175 |
67.81% |
30.71% |
18343 |
POWHATAN
COUNTY |
4180 |
11757 |
-7577 |
-8090 |
25.84% |
72.68% |
-5851 |
PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTY |
5251 |
4527 |
724 |
393 |
52.91% |
45.61% |
927 |
PRINCE
GEORGE COUNTY |
7272 |
9788 |
-2516 |
-3073 |
42.00% |
56.53% |
-1622 |
PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTY |
110109 |
82863 |
27245 |
20966 |
56.22% |
42.31% |
25814 |
PULASKI
COUNTY |
5448 |
9584 |
-4136 |
-4638 |
35.71% |
62.81% |
-2939 |
RADFORD
CITY |
3018 |
2714 |
304 |
112 |
51.88% |
46.65% |
512 |
RAPPAHANNOCK
COUNTY |
2031 |
2368 |
-337 |
-485 |
45.49% |
53.03% |
-122 |
RICHMOND
CITY |
81189 |
20174 |
61015 |
57741 |
78.91% |
19.61% |
54974 |
RICHMOND
COUNTY |
1546 |
2229 |
-683 |
-810 |
40.35% |
58.17% |
-474 |
ROANOKE
CITY |
25028 |
16373 |
8655 |
7252 |
59.56% |
38.96% |
9540 |
ROANOKE
COUNTY |
18937 |
33298 |
-14361 |
-16111 |
35.72% |
62.80% |
-10759 |
ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY |
4227 |
6371 |
-2144 |
-2498 |
39.30% |
59.23% |
-1385 |
ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
10454 |
25588 |
-15134 |
-16310 |
28.58% |
69.95% |
-12015 |
RUSSELL
COUNTY |
4568 |
7143 |
-2574 |
-2964 |
38.43% |
60.09% |
-1457 |
SALEM CITY |
4990 |
7788 |
-2798 |
-3225 |
38.47% |
60.05% |
-1924 |
SCOTT
COUNTY |
2393 |
7668 |
-5275 |
-5601 |
23.44% |
75.09% |
-4255 |
SHENANDOAH
COUNTY |
6847 |
13481 |
-6634 |
-7304 |
33.19% |
65.34% |
-5093 |
SMYTH
COUNTY |
3893 |
8715 |
-4823 |
-5237 |
30.42% |
68.10% |
-3578 |
SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
4236 |
5092 |
-856 |
-1170 |
44.74% |
53.78% |
-181 |
SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
26122 |
33005 |
-6883 |
-8837 |
43.53% |
55.00% |
-3713 |
STAFFORD
COUNTY |
27704 |
34418 |
-6714 |
-8756 |
43.94% |
54.58% |
-3505 |
STAUNTON
CITY |
5772 |
5798 |
-26 |
-413 |
49.15% |
49.37% |
239 |
SUFFOLK
CITY |
23443 |
18557 |
4886 |
3476 |
54.99% |
43.53% |
5281 |
SURRY
COUNTY |
2526 |
1739 |
787 |
642 |
58.36% |
40.17% |
963 |
SUSSEX
COUNTY |
3224 |
2100 |
1124 |
943 |
59.66% |
38.86% |
1275 |
TAZEWELL
COUNTY |
4984 |
12614 |
-7630 |
-8203 |
27.90% |
70.62% |
-5605 |
VIRGINIA
BEACH CITY |
99468 |
109119 |
-9651 |
-16652 |
46.98% |
51.54% |
-1434 |
WARREN
COUNTY |
7092 |
10086 |
-2994 |
-3573 |
40.68% |
57.85% |
-1882 |
WASHINGTON
COUNTY |
7634 |
18094 |
-10460 |
-11302 |
29.23% |
69.29% |
-8014 |
WAYNESBORO
CITY |
3814 |
5140 |
-1326 |
-1627 |
41.97% |
56.55% |
-909 |
WESTMORELAND
COUNTY |
4583 |
4055 |
528 |
236 |
52.27% |
46.25% |
858 |
WILLIAMSBURG
CITY |
5774 |
3239 |
2535 |
2250 |
63.12% |
35.40% |
1975 |
WINCHESTER
CITY |
5214 |
4943 |
271 |
-73 |
50.58% |
47.95% |
543 |
WISE
COUNTY |
4496 |
10169 |
-5673 |
-6152 |
30.21% |
68.32% |
-3919 |
WYTHE
COUNTY |
3866 |
9217 |
-5350 |
-5778 |
29.12% |
69.41% |
-4100 |
YORK
COUNTY |
13420 |
21867 |
-8447 |
-9620 |
37.47% |
61.05% |
-6133 |
Totals |
2060839 |
1928382 |
132458 |
0 |
50.9% |
47.6% |
234527 |