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My final predictions for all Virginia localities are below the fold.  I use registration data, partisan trends over time, and demographic data to generate these projections.   I am using data for the last four presidential elections to model the general partisan gravity of each locality.

I have also projected the margins in the event that the election were an exact tie.  Feel free to use the tie margins as quick reference sheet for poll watching tomorrow night.  Some things to note:

1)  Third party vote will be 1.5%.  Gary Johnson will narrowly outperform Virgil Goode, but Virgil Goode will reach the 3 - 5% range in his old Congressional district.

2) President Obama and Tim Kaine will join Mark Warner in Virginia's 2 million vote club.   Mitt Romney and George Allen will not break 2 million.  [ I don't worry about projecting for Kaine, because he will outperform Obama for many reasons--one being that the Mason & Dixon line, though it has sloughed down towards Lynchburg, still exists as a cultural delimiter].

3) Obama's worst negative margins should be in Hanover and Chesterfield counties, which should drive him a combined 40,000+ votes in the hole.   Romney actually needs to do better than +50K in those two localities in order to win Virginia.  Either that, or he'll need to find a lot of new voter in VA Beach and NOVA.  Fairfax County will go to Obama by over 100,000 votes . . . again.  Fairfax CO vote usually comes in last, so don't freak out if Obama is down until all the Fairfax absentees have been reported.

4) Romney should flip a few localities that McCain lost: Staunton City, King & Queen County, Buckingham County.  Obama may be able to flip Fluvanna County, which has a large population of people who commute to work in Albemarle County and Charlottesville.  None of these are big prizes, though.  More importantly, Loudon County will not swing back to red.

5) The worst negative margin change from 2008 for Obama will be Virginia Beach.  He could lose that by 15,000 more than he did in 2008 and still win comfortably statewide. His most positive margin changes will be in Arlington County and Richmond, where new voters and a stickier partisan lean will keep team blue strong.

6) Obama will win absentees by over 100,000 votes. He beat McCain in this area by about 125,000.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
COUNTY/CITY Obama Romney Projected Margin '12 Margin in Tie
  '12
Obama Perc. Romney Perc. Margin '08
ACCOMACK
  COUNTY
7598 8675 -1077 -1622 46.00% 52.52% -226
ALBEMARLE
  COUNTY
32805 23124 9681 7821 57.79% 40.73% 9216
ALEXANDRIA
  CITY
55565 21380 34185 31671 71.15% 27.38% 31292
ALLEGHANY
  COUNTY
3309 3907 -598 -843 45.18% 53.34% -162
AMELIA
  COUNTY
2463 4528 -2065 -2295 34.71% 63.81% -1482
AMHERST
  COUNTY
5948 9521 -3573 -4085 37.88% 60.64% -2376
APPOMATTOX
  COUNTY
2537 5481 -2945 -3223 31.17% 67.35% -2262
ARLINGTON
  COUNTY
90011 34566 55445 51340 71.19% 27.34% 49118
AUGUSTA
  COUNTY
9630 26306 -16676 -17843 26.40% 72.12% -13295
BATH
  COUNTY
936 1411 -474 -554 39.31% 59.22% -306
BEDFORD
  CITY
1138 1596 -458 -550 41.02% 57.50% -289
BEDFORD
  COUNTY
10675 27630 -16954 -18213 27.46% 71.07% -13403
BLAND
  COUNTY
793 2281 -1488 -1587 25.42% 73.10% -1167
BOTETOURT
  COUNTY
5327 12730 -7402 -7995 29.07% 69.45% -5778
BRISTOL
  CITY
2531 5117 -2586 -2838 32.61% 65.92% -1914
BRUNSWICK
  COUNTY
4813 2931 1882 1615 61.23% 37.29% 2096
BUCHANAN
  COUNTY
3448 5047 -1599 -1887 39.99% 58.53% -478
BUCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
3463 3736 -272 -516 47.40% 51.12% 61
BUENA
  VISTA CITY
1134 1540 -407 -495 41.77% 56.76% -174
CAMPBELL
  COUNTY
7779 19422 -11644 -12545 28.17% 70.35% -9353
CAROLINE
  COUNTY
7456 6350 1105 644 53.21% 45.32% 1546
CARROLL
  COUNTY
3878 9102 -5224 -5650 29.44% 69.09% -4078
CHARLES
  CITY COUNTY
2771 1335 1437 1296 66.50% 32.02% 1550
CHARLOTTE
  COUNTY
2447 3407 -961 -1162 41.18% 57.34% -667
CHARLOTTESVILLE
  CITY
18718 4752 13965 13207 78.57% 19.95% 11627
CHESAPEAKE
  CITY
54808 58361 -3554 -7342 47.71% 50.81% 1369
CHESTERFIELD
  COUNTY
77843 96756 -18913 -24715 43.93% 54.60% -12103
CLARKE
  COUNTY
3528 4321 -793 -1054 44.28% 54.24% -383
COLONIAL
  HEIGHTS CITY
2399 6534 -4135 -4430 26.46% 72.06% -3599
COVINGTON
  CITY
1226 1109 117 37 51.73% 46.80% 284
CRAIG
  COUNTY
811 1894 -1082 -1171 29.55% 68.97% -818
CULPEPER
  COUNTY
9178 12288 -3109 -3819 42.13% 56.40% -1909
CUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
2210 2547 -336 -498 45.78% 52.74% -163
DANVILLE
  CITY
12116 8163 3953 3257 58.86% 39.66% 3991
DICKENSON
  COUNTY
2859 3508 -649 -867 44.24% 54.28% -46
DINWIDDIE
  COUNTY
6221 7259 -1038 -1489 45.47% 53.05% -280
EMPORIA
  CITY
1746 946 800 709 63.90% 34.62% 805
ESSEX
  COUNTY
3067 2652 415 224 52.84% 45.68% 555
FAIRFAX
  CITY
6493 4754 1739 1356 56.88% 41.64% 1884
FAIRFAX
  COUNTY
332058 220297 111761 93338 59.23% 39.29% 109365
FALLS
  CHURCH CITY
5278 2227 3050 2805 69.28% 29.24% 2725
FAUQUIER
  COUNTY
14927 21631 -6704 -7922 40.23% 58.29% -4611
FLOYD
  COUNTY
2798 4873 -2074 -2330 35.94% 62.58% -1504
FLUVANNA
  COUNTY
6107 6764 -657 -1094 46.75% 51.77% -235
FRANKLIN
  CITY
2700 1599 1101 953 61.88% 36.65% 1243
FRANKLIN
  COUNTY
9350 17327 -7977 -8865 34.53% 63.99% -5796
FREDERICK
  COUNTY
13847 24142 -10294 -11541 35.91% 62.61% -7188
FREDERICKSBURG
  CITY
7822 4501 3321 2926 62.54% 35.99% 2742
GALAX CITY 948 1383 -436 -515 40.05% 58.47% -265
GILES
  COUNTY
2937 4908 -1971 -2234 36.89% 61.64% -1270
GLOUCESTER
  COUNTY
6664 13566 -6901 -7568 32.46% 66.07% -5173
GOOCHLAND
  COUNTY
4758 8620 -3863 -4304 35.04% 63.48% -2830
GRAYSON
  COUNTY
2250 4926 -2676 -2913 30.89% 67.63% -2060
GREENE
  COUNTY
3372 5883 -2511 -2817 35.89% 62.63% -1806
GREENSVILLE
  COUNTY
2994 1800 1194 1029 61.53% 37.00% 1393
HALIFAX
  COUNTY
7995 9062 -1067 -1647 46.18% 52.34% -474
HAMPTON
  CITY
49595 21801 27794 25400 68.44% 30.08% 26441
HANOVER
  COUNTY
18146 41921 -23775 -25745 29.76% 68.76% -18897
HARRISONBURG
  CITY
10235 7448 2788 2215 57.03% 41.50% 2396
HENRICO
  COUNTY
91863 73850 18013 12483 54.62% 43.91% 18942
HENRY
  COUNTY
10178 14102 -3925 -4756 41.30% 57.22% -2640
HIGHLAND
  COUNTY
484 877 -393 -440 35.03% 63.49% -340
HOPEWELL
  CITY
5268 4273 994 671 54.39% 44.13% 1136
ISLE OF
  WIGHT COUNTY
8566 12795 -4229 -4937 39.51% 59.01% -2685
JAMES CITY
  COUNTY
18286 24319 -6033 -7438 42.29% 56.24% -3560
KING &
  QUEEN COUNTY
1840 1888 -48 -175 48.62% 49.90% 155
KING
  GEORGE COUNTY
4830 7107 -2277 -2666 39.87% 58.66% -1415
KING
  WILLIAM COUNTY
3346 5674 -2328 -2625 36.55% 61.97% -1622
LANCASTER
  COUNTY
3024 3668 -643 -874 44.52% 54.00% -412
LEE COUNTY 2847 6539 -3692 -4000 29.88% 68.64% -2606
LEXINGTON
  CITY
1884 1170 714 616 60.78% 37.74% 629
LOUDOUN
  COUNTY
87656 78642 9014 3610 51.93% 46.59% 11509
LOUISA
  COUNTY
7129 9402 -2274 -2821 42.49% 56.04% -1204
LUNENBURG
  COUNTY
2536 2967 -431 -619 45.41% 53.12% -197
LYNCHBURG
  CITY
18279 21759 -3480 -4783 44.98% 53.54% -1369
MADISON
  COUNTY
2750 4038 -1288 -1517 39.91% 58.61% -896
MANASSAS
  CITY
8470 6941 1530 1022 54.15% 44.37% 1543
MANASSAS
  PARK CITY
2863 1949 914 756 58.61% 39.91% 829
MARTINSVILLE
  CITY
3986 2245 1741 1526 63.02% 35.50% 1828
MATHEWS
  COUNTY
1773 3695 -1922 -2104 31.94% 66.58% -1522
MECKLENBURG
  COUNTY
7024 8341 -1318 -1839 45.04% 53.49% -690
MIDDLESEX
  COUNTY
2206 3752 -1546 -1746 36.48% 62.04% -1154
MONTGOMERY
  COUNTY
22588 22162 426 -1056 49.73% 48.79% 2003
NELSON
  COUNTY
4211 3799 412 138 51.80% 46.72% 744
NEW KENT
  COUNTY
3625 7686 -4061 -4428 31.57% 66.95% -2892
NEWPORT
  NEWS CITY
53027 29804 23223 20423 63.07% 35.45% 23305
NORFOLK
  CITY
64349 26024 38324 35252 70.15% 28.37% 38005
NORTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
3592 2780 811 593 55.53% 42.99% 1087
NORTHUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
3185 4291 -1105 -1358 41.98% 56.55% -729
NORTON
  CITY
704 843 -139 -191 44.84% 53.69% -1
NOTTOWAY
  COUNTY
3203 3613 -411 -643 46.29% 52.23% -86
ORANGE
  COUNTY
7135 9489 -2354 -2907 42.29% 56.24% -1399
PAGE
  COUNTY
3977 6408 -2431 -2784 37.73% 60.79% -1806
PATRICK
  COUNTY
2708 5995 -3288 -3575 30.65% 67.87% -2612
PETERSBURG
  CITY
15113 1675 13438 12885 88.69% 9.83% 12191
PITTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
11006 20057 -9051 -10097 34.91% 63.62% -7315
POQUOSON
  CITY
1622 5724 -4102 -4341 21.76% 76.77% -3481
PORTSMOUTH
  CITY
32496 14715 17781 16175 67.81% 30.71% 18343
POWHATAN
  COUNTY
4180 11757 -7577 -8090 25.84% 72.68% -5851
PRINCE
  EDWARD COUNTY
5251 4527 724 393 52.91% 45.61% 927
PRINCE
  GEORGE COUNTY
7272 9788 -2516 -3073 42.00% 56.53% -1622
PRINCE
  WILLIAM COUNTY
110109 82863 27245 20966 56.22% 42.31% 25814
PULASKI
  COUNTY
5448 9584 -4136 -4638 35.71% 62.81% -2939
RADFORD
  CITY
3018 2714 304 112 51.88% 46.65% 512
RAPPAHANNOCK
  COUNTY
2031 2368 -337 -485 45.49% 53.03% -122
RICHMOND
  CITY
81189 20174 61015 57741 78.91% 19.61% 54974
RICHMOND
  COUNTY
1546 2229 -683 -810 40.35% 58.17% -474
ROANOKE
  CITY
25028 16373 8655 7252 59.56% 38.96% 9540
ROANOKE
  COUNTY
18937 33298 -14361 -16111 35.72% 62.80% -10759
ROCKBRIDGE
  COUNTY
4227 6371 -2144 -2498 39.30% 59.23% -1385
ROCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
10454 25588 -15134 -16310 28.58% 69.95% -12015
RUSSELL
  COUNTY
4568 7143 -2574 -2964 38.43% 60.09% -1457
SALEM CITY 4990 7788 -2798 -3225 38.47% 60.05% -1924
SCOTT
  COUNTY
2393 7668 -5275 -5601 23.44% 75.09% -4255
SHENANDOAH
  COUNTY
6847 13481 -6634 -7304 33.19% 65.34% -5093
SMYTH
  COUNTY
3893 8715 -4823 -5237 30.42% 68.10% -3578
SOUTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
4236 5092 -856 -1170 44.74% 53.78% -181
SPOTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
26122 33005 -6883 -8837 43.53% 55.00% -3713
STAFFORD
  COUNTY
27704 34418 -6714 -8756 43.94% 54.58% -3505
STAUNTON
  CITY
5772 5798 -26 -413 49.15% 49.37% 239
SUFFOLK
  CITY
23443 18557 4886 3476 54.99% 43.53% 5281
SURRY
  COUNTY
2526 1739 787 642 58.36% 40.17% 963
SUSSEX
  COUNTY
3224 2100 1124 943 59.66% 38.86% 1275
TAZEWELL
  COUNTY
4984 12614 -7630 -8203 27.90% 70.62% -5605
VIRGINIA
  BEACH CITY
99468 109119 -9651 -16652 46.98% 51.54% -1434
WARREN
  COUNTY
7092 10086 -2994 -3573 40.68% 57.85% -1882
WASHINGTON
  COUNTY
7634 18094 -10460 -11302 29.23% 69.29% -8014
WAYNESBORO
  CITY
3814 5140 -1326 -1627 41.97% 56.55% -909
WESTMORELAND
  COUNTY
4583 4055 528 236 52.27% 46.25% 858
WILLIAMSBURG
  CITY
5774 3239 2535 2250 63.12% 35.40% 1975
WINCHESTER
  CITY
5214 4943 271 -73 50.58% 47.95% 543
WISE
  COUNTY
4496 10169 -5673 -6152 30.21% 68.32% -3919
WYTHE
  COUNTY
3866 9217 -5350 -5778 29.12% 69.41% -4100
YORK
  COUNTY
13420 21867 -8447 -9620 37.47% 61.05% -6133
Totals 2060839 1928382 132458 0 50.9% 47.6% 234527
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