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Things are looking good for President Obama's reelection, I'm happy to say. But I expect that my sense of victory (or relief) on the national level will be significantly dulled by a crushing GOP sweep on the statewide level here in Montana.

Up front and center, the numbers aren't in Jon Tester's favor. His defeat of Conrad Burns in 2006 was razor thin, and for all the talk of the Senate race being a tossup, most of the polls look to be in Rehberg's favor. The house wins in a push, and in Montana, the house is Republican. (kos, however, sees Tester squeaking this one out.)

Speaking of the House,  look for Republicans to keep both the U.S. House (Kim Gillan polls far behind teabagger Steve Daines) and the State House, probably by a wider margin.  The State Senate, too.

Of course, a Republican-controlled State Legislature was tempered for the last few sessions by having the inestimable Brian Schweitzer in the executive suite. Can we count on that situation to persist? The polls look like a tossup, and so once again my inner pessimist calls that a GOP win by default.

Overall, I expect the Democrats to lose big in Montana. I don't really have numbers to back this up; I'm just looking it up in my gut. But there's one reason my gut tells me this: for whatever reason, Montanans hate Obama. Denny Rehberg's campaign uses the president's name as a slur against Jon Tester, and frankly, Tester plays along, moving away from the president as fast as his tractor will take him. I think we're going to see a major Obama-backlash in this state, and it will carry enormous coattails.

The worst part of the scenario I'm foreseeing here is that we lose the Land Board. Incredibly, all five seats of that critical body governing land use are currently held by Democrats. I expect that to change disastrously tomorrow.

May Wednesday morning prove me wrong.

Originally posted to Vogelfrei on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:01 PM PST.

Also republished by Montana Kossaks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's a sociologically Republican state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I mean, it sucks for Montanans of any decency, but a Democratic Montana is as sociologically wacky nowadays as a Democratic Massachusetts.

    You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

    by Rich in PA on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:04:13 PM PST

  •  "I don't really have numbers to back this up" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seanflynn, MT Clarity, Dillonfence

    Why don't you put this in your title so people don't waste their time reading your diary?

  •  Did we need to know you think Dems will lose big? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MT Clarity, Dillonfence, Ojibwa

    Find something productive to do.

    Take the fight to them. Don't let them bring it to you. - Harry S Truman

    by jgoodfri on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:05:08 PM PST

  •  is everything O.K.?? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MT Clarity, Dillonfence

    seriously, i think you need to get help

    go Google the fricking Dog rides a mower video

  •  Most of the polling has favored Rehberg? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MT Clarity, pistolSO

    PPP has consistently found Tester with a 2 point lead the past few months, and the even last Rasmussen poll of the race a few days ago gave Tester a 1 point edge.  

    Mason-Dixon did give Rehberg a 4 point lead, but they've had a very heavy Republican house effect this cycle.

  •  I'm fighting the urge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to give you a doughnut.  Whine after you lose, not before.  

    "Cuz ya ain't done nothing if ya ain't been called a Red." --Faith Petric

    by MT Clarity on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:16:29 PM PST

  •  We'll just have to wait and see won't we (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    When I look at polling I often look quickly for the initials MT and find nothing.

    I'd have a hard time calling MT red or blue, many comments I read about the state as well as WY and ID seem to be a caricature people pick up as viewed from the coasts.

    No matter who wind I know that in the lame duck a bill that Tester introduced and pushed will be the first one out of the gate. And it will pass with bipartisan support. Sure hope he wins we could use a few more like him, hair cut and all.

    How big is your personal carbon footprint?

    by ban nock on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:23:56 PM PST

  •  My Gut (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vogelfrei, pistolSO, DeeDee001

    And I'm not from Montana, is that Tester wins.  The most recent polls have shown him up and polls 6 years ago tended to underestimate the votes he would get and he was running against an incumbent then.

    My advice, get out and work.  Did you forget to take your prozac today?

  •  I'm not pessimistic... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vogelfrei, pistolSO, DeeDee001

    I live in Billings, one of the more conservative parts of the state. And I'm not a natural optimist. But Montana is a purple state, not a red state. Some years we're more red than purple, but a populist history and a libertarian streak keep us from going South. Tester is even with scumbag Rehberg, if not slightly ahead. There is a lot of GOTV energy behind Tester (including me, tomorrow), so I'm somewhat hopeful. And Democrat Bullock and bloated, Sip N' Dip Hill are essentially tied in the governor's race. Regardless, whatever we lose tomorrow won't keeps us down for long.

  •  This election cycle is all about women (0+ / 0-)

    and Rehberg is an anti-choice zealot(and a homophobe too).   I think Tester will have the edge since he's the incumbant, and he's pro-choice.

    I wouldn't underestimate the women of Montana rejecting Rehberg since Rehberg tried to kill Planned Parenthood and tried to make it harder for women to get birth control.   Montana is a small-l libertarian-leaning state and Rehberg trying to dictate what women can do is not a winner for him there.

  •  I hear nothing from Rehberg. (0+ / 0-)

    John Tester's campaign has called my house twice in the last four days to ask us to vote.

    Yesterday, a nice young man came by the house as we were sitting down to dinner to make sure we planning to go vote.  He had a lot more stops to make, too.

    From Rehberg, just mailers.  So there's that.  

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