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I know there's a rule about clogging the diary bar, but there are sooo few prediction diaries.  Here's mine for the House.

Double Digit Races:

AR-4, NC-11, and NC-13: We can welcome Tom Cotton, Mark Meadows, and George Holding to Congress, thanks to redistricting and some incredibly douchey retirements.

CA-8: Paul Cook-R 65, Gregg Imus-R 35: Democrats know they’re never picking up this seat, so they’ll vote Cook or sit out.  Establishment Republicans will also vote Cook, leaving only Tea Partiers to give Imus his 35% in this incredibly quiet race to replace Jerry Lewis.

CA-31: Gary Miller-R 60, Bob Dutton-R 40: Miller will be our top target in 2014, but for now I think his money will overwhelm Dutton being a bit to his left.

CA-35: Joe Baca-D 59, Gloria Negrete McLeod-D 41: Baca’s got most Republicans and many moderate Democrats in his corner, which should be enough.

CA-44: Janice Hahn-D 65, Laura Richardson-D 35: Two people nobody who’s met likes.  However, at least Hahn is clean.

FL-22: Lois Frankel-D 55, Adam Hasner-R 45: The first competitive Jew-on-Jew House race in recent memory should be a decent victory for Democrats.

IA-1: Bruce Braley-D 55, Ben Lange-R 45: Braley’s got first rights to replace Grassley in 2016 upon his (likely in my opinion) retirement.

LA-3: Charles Boustany-R 55, Jeff Landry-R 42: I totally forgot this race was going on; I think the territorial edge means Boustany wins it.

NE-2: Lee Terry-R 53, John Ewing-R 43: I hate Lee Terry.  But he’ll win.

NJ-3: Jon Runyan-R 55, Shelley Adler-D 45: Adler’s been triaged by the DCCC, but she’ll still manage a decent showing.

NC-8: Richard Hudson-R 55, Larry Kissell-D 45: Kissell’s taken as many positions as Mitt Romney in his short Congressional career; I’m very much not a fan.  This is another flip, bringing the running total to R+4.

OK-2: Markwayne Mullin-R 55, Rob Wallace-D 45: Not bad for Little Dixie in this day and age, but definitely not enough.  R+5.

SD-AL: Kristi Noem-R 55, Matt Varilek-D 45: Varilek’s done pretty well, but South Dakota’s just too red.

VA-2: Scott Rigell-R 55, Paul Hirschbiel-D 45: Rigell has this seat as long as he wants it.

WI-8: Reid Ribble-R 55, Jamie Wall-D 45: Early on, some thought this would be competitive, but Wall isn’t really a top recruit.

MA-6: Richard Tisei-R 52, John Tierney-D 41: Tierney’s straight up given up after a scandal engulfed his wife and in-laws.  The 3rd Party candidate should do decently here. R+6 pickups.
AZ-2: Ron Barber-D 53, Martha McSalley-R 43: Barber has this seat as long as he wants it, with the blue trend.

CA-47: Alan Lowenthal-D 55, Gary DeLong-45: Like in FL-22, a strong R recruit in a D-leaning seat isn’t enough.

CA-30: Brad Sherman-D 56, Howard Berman-D 44: Territory advantage is a big deal in primaries.

7-9 Points:

CA-21: David Valadao-R 54, John Hernandez-D 46: It’s closer than I once thought it would be, but it’s not enough.  R+7 pickups.

CA-15: Eric Swalwell-D 54, Pete Stark-D 46: Stark’s mouth and overall craziness cost him here.

CO-7: Ed Perlmutter-D 52, Joe Coors-R 43: Money can’t buy you votes, as Meg Whitman and Linda McMahon have learned.

FL-10: Dan Webster-R 53, Val Demings-D 44: I think Demings will do worse than nearly everyone else does, so we’ll see who’s right.

FL-16: Vern Buchanan-R 51, Keith Fitzgerald-D 43: Sadly, the other shoe never dropped on the corrupt Buchanan.

FL-26: Joe Garcia-D 50, David Rivera-R 42: At least one corrupt Florida incumbent is losing.  This will be our safest pickup, moving the total back to R+6.

IL-8: Tammy Duckworth-D 51, Joe Walsh-R 43: Well, tied with this pickup, at least.  R+5.

IN-8: Larry Bucshon-R 52, Dave Crooks-D 43: It looked good on paper, but never materialized.

IN-9: Todd Young-R 54, Shelli Yoder-D 46: Yoder’s run a great race for a liberal in a red district.

IA-2: Dave Loebsack-D 54, Not Bothering to Look up His Name-R 46: Nothing materialized here for Team Red.

KY-6: Ben Chandler-D 54, Andy Barr-R 46: If you didn’t lose in 2010, and your district got bluer…

MD-6: John Delaney-D 51, Roscoe Bartlett-R 44: Another pretty safe pickup against a crazy old man.  R+4.

MI-11: Kerry Bentivolio-R 53, Syed Taj-D 44: Well, at least Bentivolio will be entertaining.

MN-8: Rick Nolan-D 54, Chip Cravaack-R 46: Another almost certain pickup.  R+3.

MT-AL: Steve Daines-R 52, Kim Gillan-D 43: Tough race.

ND-AL: Kevin Cramer-R 52, Pam Gulleson-D 44: Another tough race.

PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick-R 54, Kathy Boockvaar-D 46: Way too many people kept this on the table after it was off the table.

WA-1: Suzan Delbene-D 54, John Koster-R 46: Shouldn’t even be this close.

WI-7: Sean Duffy-R 52, Pat Kreitlow-D 44: Kreitlow’s been weaker than expected, or Duffy stronger.  Maybe both.

NY-25: Louise Slaughter-D 54, Maggie Brooks-R 46: About where I thought it’d be all along.

5-6 Point Races:

NY-1: Tim Bishop-D 52, Randy Altschuler-R 47: Read what I said about KY-6; it applies here too.

NY-18: Nan Hayworth-R 52, Sean Maloney-D 47: Not the greatest recruit in a very vulnerable seat.

NY-19: Chris Gibson-R 53, Julian Schreibman-D 47: Not a great recruit and a great incumbent but a bluer district.

NY-21: Bill Owens-D 50, Matt Doheny-R 45: Owens finally hits 50%.

AZ-9: Kyrsten Sinema-D 52, Vernon Parker-R 47: Only one freshman Black Republican this time.

CA-9: Jerry McNerney-D 53, Ricky Gill-R 47: Anti-McNerney ads have run nonstop on Hulu for me this fall.

CA-24: Lois Capps-D 53, Abel Maldonado-R 47: The 9th and 24th are both just a bridge too far.

CA-41: Mark Takano-D 53, John Taviglione-R 47: Big improvement from the primary here.

CO-3: Scott Tipton-R 52, Sal Pace-D 46: The district’s too red, no matter how good the recruit is.

GA-12: John Barrow-D 51, Lee Anderson-R 46: Anderson’s as bland as it gets.

MN-6: Michele Bachmann-R 53, Jim Graves-D 47: In 2008, he could’ve beaten her.

NV-3: Joe Heck-R 50, John Oceguera-D 44: Oceguera’s a hack of the worst kind; you can’t knock off an incumbent in a swing seat with someone like him.

TN-4: Scott DesJarlais-R 53, Eric Stewart-D 47: As much as it hurts to say it, I think this one is optimistic; Dr. Creepo might still win by double digits.

UT-4: Mia Love-R 51, Jim Matheson-D 46: The only thing that could take Matheson out was a Mormon surge due to Romney.  Sad to see him go.  R+4.

CA-26: Julia Brownley-D 53, Tony Strickland-R 47: He’s just too conservative.  R+3.

3-4 Points:

RI-1: David Cicciline-D 52, Brendan Doherty-R 48: Embarrassing performance in such a blue district.  He really needs a primary.

NH-2: Ann Kuster-D 50, Charlie Bass-R 47: He got lucky in 2010; not this time.  R+2.

NY-24: Dan Maffei-D 50, Ann Buerkle-R 46: It shouldn’t even be this close.  R+1.

AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick-D 48, Jonathan Paton-R 45: I’m getting more worried about this one, though.  EVEN.

CA-10: Jeff Denham-R 52, Jose Hernandez-D 48: Hernandez is a strong if unpolished candidate; 2016 should be prime time to take Denham out.

CA-52: Scott Peters-D 52, Brian Bilbray-R 48:  I think the primary sealed it.  D+1.

FL-2: Steve Southerland-R 52, Al Lawson-D 48: Lawson’s done better than I expected.

IL-10: Bob Dold!-R 52, Brad Schneider-D 48: We just didn’t recruit well here; top 2014 target, especially since Dold may run for Governor (or Senate if Durbin retires).  

MI-1: Gary McDowell-D 50, Dan Benishek-R 46: On the other hand, we recruited very well here.  D+2.

NC-7: Mike McIntyre-D 52, David Rouzer-R 48: Another Blue Dog hangs on.  By my count, of actual moderates in 2013, we’ll have: Kurt Schrader, Ben Chandler, Henry Cuellar, Jim Costa, Bill Owens, Jim Cooper, Mike McIntyre, Collin Peterson, John Barrow, Gary McDowell (freshman), Filemon Vela (freshman), Bill Foster (freshman), Elizabeth Esty, and Scott Peters depending on his voting record.  Very small caucus.

OH-6: Bill Johnson-R 52, Charlie Wilson-D 48: This one’s been very under the radar, an upset wouldn’t surprise me.

OH-16: Jim Renacci-R 52, Betty Sutton-D 48: She’s too far left for a light red district.  D+1.

TX-14: Randy Weber-R 50, Nick Lampson-D 47: This would be really nice to win.

2 Points (Tilt Races):

NH-2: Carol Shea-Porter-D 50, Frank Guinta-R 48: Both NH seats flip back to blue.  D+2.

CT-5: Elizabeth Esty-D 50, Andrew Roraback-R 48: I’m worried about this one; it’s underpolled.

CA-36: Raul Ruiz-D 51, Mary Bono Mack-R 49: I don’t like him, but I do think he has the edge in this late-breaking race.  D+3.

IL-11: Bill Foster-D 51, Judy Biggert-R 49: Other than IL-10, I think the gerrymander of IL should hold.  Barely.  D+4.

IL-17: Cheri Bustos-D 49, Bobby Schilling-R 47: Very unimpressive against a Tea Partier.  D+5.

IA-3: Tom Latham-R 50, Leonard Boswell-D 48: Also closer than I originally pegged this one.  D+4.

IA-4: Steve King-R 51, Christie Vilsack-D 49: Sadly, like MN-6, the district is just too red.

PA-12: Mark Critz-D 51, Keith Rothfus-R 49: Critz really isn’t bad aside from social issues.

TX-23: Pete Gallego-D 48, Quico Canseco-R 46: Was it the mailer that did it?  I doubt it, but who knows.  D+5.

NV-4: Steven Horsford-D 48, Danny Tarkanian-R 46: If it’s this close, what an abysmal campaign by Horsford.  Your opponent’s in bankruptcy!

Recount Territory:

NY-27: Chris Collins-R 50, Kathy Hochul-D 50: My heart says blue, my head says red.  D+4.

CA-7: Ami Bera-D 50, Dan Lungren-R 50: I volunteered here yesterday.  D+5.

CO-6: Joe Miklosi-D 49, Mike Coffman-R 48: In a fair world, there’s a punishment for being so crazy in a swing district.  D+6.

FL-18: Patrick Murphy-D 50, Allen West-R 50: See CO-6.  D+7.

IL-13: David Gill-D 50, Rodney Davis-R 50: Gill is a top 2014 target if he wins.  D+8.

IN-2: Jackie Walorski-R 48, Brendan Mullen-D 48: I think Donnelly gets a home district bump.  D+7.

So that’s all our gains this cycle.  Dem +7.  I really do hope I’m wrong about that.


How many seats will we pick up?

2%4 votes
10%16 votes
13%20 votes
32%48 votes
18%27 votes
7%11 votes
6%10 votes
6%10 votes
1%2 votes

| 148 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:03:24 PM PST

  •  Turnout in a presidential year (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scottsvine, wu ming, MichaelNY

    will favor dems because it's higher overall.  I still believe in a 3.5% or more Obama win, and that this will translate to  a closer shot at Dem takeover than many are guessing right now.

    Howard Dean will always be my president.

    by 4democracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:10:03 PM PST

  •  i think dems get closer than that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    my guess is that control of the house will be within 5 either way, but no idea which way it'll break.

    •  what seats will get us there? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, wu ming

      show me the path.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 01:58:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The path isn't too hard to see (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCal, MichaelNY, wu ming

        however unlikely it is, the path is right in your diary.  It just involves us sweeping all the close races, and picking off a handful of surprises.  Like I said, unlikely, but there it is.

        If Dem turnout does exceed the polls tomorrow, and we end up winning the national House vote by a few points, that may just happen.

        However, I'm personally predicting something more like a 15 seat gain.

      •  this only gets dems to +20 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        but if the likely voter models are systematically underestimating democratic enthusiasm and youth/latino turnout as i believe them to be, then this would bring them within 5. i think dems will win most close house races, and that there will be a few surprises as well.

        ca-21 hernandez if latino vote is up
        ne-2 ewing on kerrey/obama coattails if that materializes
        co-3 pace if latino vote is up
        nv 3 oceguera if latino vote is up
        ca-10 hernandes if latino vote is up
        tx-14 lampson
        oh-6 wilson gets bump from prez turnout
        tn-4 desjarlais falls on scandal
        mn-6 bachmann out-crazies her district
        ia-3 boswell on obama coattails
        ia-2 vilsack on obama coattails
        ny-27 hochul holds on
        in-2 mullen on donnell coattails

  •  Interesting Predictions (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    you're a bit more conservative then me, I'd say Dems gain somewhere between 10-15 seats this year, though still not enough to takeover the house.

    CA 44: I guessing you still haven't had a chance to try the cosmos from Janice Hahn :P Perhaps this makes me one of the few people out there that does like her. Though I guess I maybe a tad biased on that seeing as I even backed her over Newsom for Lt Gov. And when your opponent is Richardson I guess you've got nothing to lose at this point

    McIntyre moderates list: You might consider adding Swalwelll to that list, I'm hearing he's campaigning as moderate to win over GOP voters, dunno what it mean in the end. Honestly Stark has lost pretty any sense of credibility at this point, I just hope Swalwelll will vote his district

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:21:10 PM PST

    •  Swalwell will be similar to Schwartz I bet (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Left-center on economic issues, left on foreign policy/social issues.  That's not moderate, just not progressive either.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:15:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  so he'd probably join the New Democrat Coalition (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:42:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  One little correction (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    You listed Capps and Maldonado in CA-26, as well as Strickland and Brownley.

    Capps and Maldo are in the 24th, Brownley and Strickland are in the 26th.

    Really good though.

  •  About your list of moderates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Does Foster really count? He's no flaming liberal, but I don't see how he belongs in a category with Barrow, Chandler, Cooper, and McIntyre.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:27:44 PM PST

    •  well he's to their left (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      But he's still a moderate.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 09:53:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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