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As of this minute President Obama is above 70% on Intrade which is the first time in weeks that he has been above the 70% threshold........ HTTP://WWW.INTRADE.COM

GREAT NEWS! but let's continue to GET OUT THE VOTE!


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Comment Preferences

  •  And just this morning someone was whining (0+ / 0-)

    that InterTrade had him at 67%. That's a pretty dramatic shift in 8 hours or so. Wonder what it'll be by tomorrow morning? When do they close trading on InterTrade for the election?

    Attention rich bastards, this is real important,
    I thought you might want to know
    That $5,000 suits don't hide your 5¢ souls.

    by ontheleftcoast on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:29:53 PM PST

    •  They'll (0+ / 0-)

      close once the election of one of the candidates is certain. By then the price of a share will already be like 9.99 or even 10$

      -2.12, -4.97 "Die Lüge wird zur Weltordnung gemacht." -Kafka

      by GermanAmericanDem on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:52:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  he was at $64 last night. (0+ / 0-)

      the media has been telling a little truth today.  That's probably what the shift is.

      They jumped off the sinking Romney-ship, in order to win access to the existing and remaining POTUS.

      "A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and me?" - Don Van Vliet

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:08:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  bah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      No it isn't a dramatic shift.

      Intrade is a toy market with no significant volume.

      Extremely easy to manipulate the prices if you want to. This is almost certainly being done almost like an ad buy. Losing a relatively small amount of money in order to try to build a narrative.

      It is currently at 67.4%.

      The real market is at Pinnacle or (to a lesser degree) at Betfair.

      77.5% at Pinnacle. Was up to 81% at its highest, but keeps getting bet down. There is a lot of money that says 77% is the right number here. I hope they are wrong, and that the right number is in the low 80%s. A number of people are still putting money on that premise.

      77% at Betfair, which is a much, much smaller market than Pinnacle (but still bigger than Intrade or Iowa Elections Market).

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:32:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see why Intrade gets so much press (0+ / 0-)

        Someone should do a better's index and merge all the markets into a cohesive number.

        Also, like Nate, we should be validating Intrade's success rate in prediction.

        Even though it's a market - if the volume is low enough it's completely malleable.

        Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

        by sacrelicious on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:45:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not to rain on your parade, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but it's at 69.4 percent again :P
    Intrade is irrelevant anyway and has been prone to gaming in the past. For a more realistic reflection of the conventional wisdom look at bookmakers' odds.

    -2.12, -4.97 "Die Lüge wird zur Weltordnung gemacht." -Kafka

    by GermanAmericanDem on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:30:50 PM PST

  •  Obama's RCP approval is exactly 50% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doroma, AlyoshaKaramazov

    That means reelection for an incumbent

  •  Was just watching that. (0+ / 0-)

    Intrade's pushing it's best level since before the 1st debate. 70% didn't even happen at all that same time.  Looks like the Intrade betters are making their final moves, and shifting towards team blue.

    Howard Dean will always be my president.

    by 4democracy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:34:03 PM PST

  •  I guess they didn't see Romney's internals numbers (3+ / 0-)

    Romney going win more states than Reagan.... It's true, just ask Romney's pollster.:/

    Please proceed, Governor---President Obama

    by bosshogg on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:36:27 PM PST

  •  Some idiot Republican bet close to 70K against O (4+ / 0-)

    I saw early a huge share block of 10,000 buy Obama shares at around $6.74/share.  That means someone was on the other side of that bet.

    Buyers must have scooped up all those shares sometime later today.

    Ignorant fucker is out 70K.

    That's a Wall Street guy not a trailer park Teahadist or Joe the Plumber type.


    •  Actually he's getting off easy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacrelicious, GoogleBonhoeffer

      How many Millions of dollars will the Koch brothers be out in less than 48 hours?

      Until the economy recovers, I'll settle for cheap laughs

      by Clyde the Cat on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:46:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  To be fair... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ..if he's Wall Street-keeping the President in office will make that 70k is like peanuts to him. He will continue to make a fortune in the outstanding economy.

      "Good to be here, good to be anywhere." --Keith Richards

      by bradreiman on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:50:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was watching this as well... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I watched it second by second because I wanted to see how long it took to get eaten up.

      But, it just disappeared rather then slowly getting chipped away.  I'll bet Intrade pulled the trade for some reason.

      And the way you know it's a Romney ploy is that whoever did it could've made triple the return just by using a different market.  The only reason for this trade was to falsely hold the market down.

    •  not 70K (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Isn't out anywhere near 70K.

      He is selling an Obama share for $6.74. He is only out the difference between this and $10 for each share, IF Obama wins.

      So, the amount he'll lose if Obama wins is $33,600. If Obama loses, he'll win $67,400.

      If the true price is, say 80%,
      then 20% of the time, he'll win $67,400.
      80% of the time, he'll lose $33,600.

      His "cost" for this is only $13,400.

      This may be worth it as an "ad buy" if it changes the narrative.

      By the way, he can withdraw his offer as well. They don't have to have been matched.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:44:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He didn't withdraw his offer (0+ / 0-)

        It was the large buy that drove up Obama's probability from 67% to 70%.  He sold a mountain of Obama shares the day before the election.  

        •  ? (0+ / 0-)

          This isn't making any sense.

          Are you saying that he offered shares or that he bought existing offers?

          If he offered shares, then the situation I described applies.
          He is out some percentage of $33,600, depending on how mispriced 67% is. If the assumption is a fair price of 80%, then it is 13.5K.

          The current price as I write this is 66.7%.

          Over the last two weeks, I don't see a closing price higher than 68.5%. Except for November 1st of 68.5, no closing is higher than 66.4 during this time. You have to go back more than a month to find a closing price at high as 70%.

          The plural of anecdote is not data.

          by Skipbidder on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:39:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm confused (0+ / 0-)

          "He sold a mountain of Obama shares the day before the election."

          Today is the day before the election.

          If there was a large Obama buy, why do you think it was from someone who had previously shorted him? What makes you think that it wasn't from someone who jumped through the hoops to get a ton of cash on the site and was just buying as many underpriced O shares as he could?

          I think that I'm fundamentally misunderstanding what you are saying.

          The plural of anecdote is not data.

          by Skipbidder on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:54:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  So it's more likely he didn't purchase O shares (0+ / 0-)

        He sold Obama short, unwound his short position and cut his losses at $6.74 instead of $10.  Who knows his avg. short cost.  Maybe he shorted Obama at $5.70 and only lost $10,000.  

        So you're right it's not a 70K loss but he's still a loser for betting against Obama.

        •  hmm (0+ / 0-)

          Maybe he shorted Obama at 77% back at the end of September and made a profit.

          Unless you have information that I can't find publicly available, then we don't know this.

          I misunderstood your original assertion. I thought you were saying that somebody offered to sell a bunch of Obama (short sell) at 67.5%

          The plural of anecdote is not data.

          by Skipbidder on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:00:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Caution: Kerry was trading in the high 80s in 2004 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...on a couple of the earlier prediction markets. The Ohio exit polls, of course, had something to do with that.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:39:56 PM PST

    •  i believe Bush was in the mid 50's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the day before election

      So Intrade had that one right.  The exit polls made everything go crazy temporarily but it corrected back to Bush pretty quickly as people realized the exit polls were bs.

  •  I will be so glad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I will be so glad when this election is over so that the ads can be gone along with these three-line "diaries."

    When I do good, I feel good. When I do bad, I feel bad. That is my religion. - Abraham Lincoln

    by EntrWriter on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 02:46:32 PM PST

  •  Keep our eyes on GOTV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wildthumb, ShoshannaD

    I don't bet on an event that is this important to me.  I will be back on the phonebank at 6 AM Los Angeles time.  I don't understand why Intrade is so low but it doesn't matter.  The vote matters.  Make phone calls!

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