Last night, Stephen Colbert mocked Joe Scarborough for trying to pick a fight with Nate Silver over his polling numbers, as Morning Joe still wanted to claim this presidential race can only be a toss-up.
We are 12 minutes closer to Election Day, and as of 1143 hundred Zulu time, there is only one way to describe this race.Video below the fold.
VICTOR BLACKWELL (10/27/2012): The race is as tight as they come.Yes. This race is razor tight. That means no margin for error, or correct use of metaphor. I mean, it's banana up for grabs. But folks, every prediction out there needs a pooper. In this case, New York Times polling Jedi Nate Silver, who in 2008 correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states. But, you know what they say. Even a stopped clock is right 98% of the time.
BILL HEMMER (11/5/2012): This race is absolutely razor tight.
CHUCK TODD (11/5/2012): A look at other national polls confirm it's razor tight.
LESTER HOLT (10/29/2012): We've seen the polls razor tight.
KRISTEN WELKER (11/3/2012): This remains razor tight.
See, Silver's got a computer model that uses mumbo jumbo like "weighted polling average", "trendline adjustment", and "linear regression analysis", but ignores proven methodologies like flag-pin size, handshake strength, and intensity of debate glare.
And as of tonight, folks, Silver is predicting that Obama has an 86.3% chance of winning re-election. (wild audience applause) Yeah, I don't buy it either. Where does he get off predicting something other than the agreed narrative? I mean, what part of razor tight does he not understand? That just makes me so crab-claw angry. But folks, I am not the only one tarnishing Silver's sterling reputation. (Stephen blows kisses as audience gets the pun and applauds)
No, so is Joe Joe Starbucks, with Mika and the Morning Willie.JOE SCARBOROUGH (10/23/2012): Nate Silver says this is a 76.3% chance the President's going to win? ... Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters ... because they're jokes.Yeah, Silver and his math are jokes. Because math has a liberal bias. After all, math is the reason Mitt Romney's tax plan doesn't add up. (audience applause)
I mean, folks, there is only one way to call this race. As Scarborough himself wrote:JOE SCARBOROUGH (10/23/2012): My gut tells me there are two likely scenarios: (1) President Obama will squeak out a narrow Electoral College victory or (2) Mitt Romney will carry Ohio and be swept into office by a comfortable margin.After 20 years in politics, 5 election cycles, grinding it out on MSNBC, Joe's gut is telling him either Obama will win, or Romney will win. (audience applause) I mean, where does he find the courage?
Stephen also noted how Mitt Romney had stolen his super PAC's motto, and talked about how campaigns are using data mining to figure out at an individual level how likely you are to vote for a candidate with Slate's Sasha Issenberg.