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I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my "Partisan Factor" predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my "Partisan Factor", which is how I predict each competitive district will go.

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.

2012 President

State Result D Electoral Votes R Electoral Votes
Alabama
Romney by 19.23
9
Alaska
Romney by 20.43
3
Arizona
Romney by 6.84
11
Arkansas
Romney by 22.87
6
California
Obama by 19.92
55
Colorado
Obama by 2.59
9
Connecticut
Obama by 15.74
7
Delaware
Obama by 26.09
3
District of Columbia
Obama by 87.03
3
Florida
Romney by 0.26*
29
Georgia
Romney by 6.71
16
Hawaii
Obama by 36.69
4
Idaho
Romney by 24.19
4
Illinois
Obama by 18.81
20
Indiana
Romney by 5.43*
11
Iowa
Obama by 2.79
6
Kansas
Romney by 13.81
6
Kentucky
Romney by 14.55
8
Louisiana
Romney by 17.52
8
Maine
Obama by 15.29
4
Maryland
Obama by 22.39
10
Massachusetts
Obama by 21.84
11
Michigan
Obama by 5.18
16
Minnesota
Obama by 8.34
10
Mississippi
Romney by 12.06
6
Missouri
Romney by 8.3
10
Montana
Romney by 5.11
3
Nebraksa
Romney by 13.41
5
Nevada
Obama by 3.64
6
New Hampshire
Obama by 3.01
4
New Jersey
Obama by 14.33
14
New Mexico
Obama by 11.66
5
New York
Obama by 26.87
29
North Carolina
Romney by 0.46*
15
North Dakota
Romney by 19.11
3
Ohio
Obama by 2.96
18
Oklahoma
Romney by 29.59
7
Oregon
Obama by 9.78
7
Pennsylvania
Obama by 6.09
20
Rhode Island
Obama by 22.98
4
South Carolina
Romney by 7.87
9
South Dakota
Romney by 6.65
3
Tennessee
Romney by 13.95
11
Texas
Romney by 14.9
38
Utah
Romney by 33.45
6
Vermont
Obama by 37.56
3
Virginia
Obama by 2.05
13
Washington
Obama by 12.05
12
West Virginia
Romney by 12.99
5
Wisconsin
Obama by 5.8
10
Wyoming
Romney by 31.23
3
Total 303 235

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.

2012 Governor

State
Result
Delaware
Safe Markell (D)
Indiana
Pence (D) by 7.87
Missouri
Nixon (D) by 13
Montana
Daines (R) by 0.5*
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) by 3
North Carolina
McCrory (R) by 14.25*
North Dakota
Dalrymple (R) by 35
Utah
Safe Herbert (R)
Vermont
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Washington
Inslee (D) by 0.5
West Virginia
Tomblin (D) by 21
Total Governors 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent

Now for the Senate races. I don't know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.

2012 Senate

State Result
Arizona
Carmona (D) by 0.5*
California
Feinstein (D) by 19
Connecticut
Murphy (D) by 4.67
Delaware
Safe Carper (D)
Florida
Nelson (D) by 7.43
Hawaii
Hirono (D) by 18.5
Indiana
Donnelly (D) by 3*
Maine
King (I) by 18*
Maryland
Cardin (D) by 26.09
Massachusetts
Warren (D) by 4.67*
Michigan
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) by 30
Mississippi
Safe Wicker (R)
Missouri
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
Montana
Rehberg (R) by 1.13*
Nebraska
Fischer (R) by 13*
Nevada
Heller (R) by 5.14
New Jersey
Menendez (D) by 18
New Mexico
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
New York
Gillibrand (D) by 43
North Dakota
Berg (R) by 5*
Ohio
Brown (D) by 6.14
Pennsylvania
Casey (D) by 5.14
Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Tennessee
Safe Corker (R)
Texas
Cruz (R) by 21.5
Utah
Safe Hatch (R)
Vermont
Safe Sanders (I)
Virginia
Kaine (D) by 1.57
Washington
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
West Virginia
Manchin (D) by 39
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Wyoming
Safe Barrasso (R)
Total Senators 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.

2012 U.S. House

District Result
AZ-01
Paton (R) by 1.88
AZ-02
Barber (D) by 5.63
AZ-09
Sinema (D) by 2.56
CA-03
Garamendi (D) by 15
CA-07
Bera (D) by 1.25
CA-09
McNerney (D) by 1.25
CA-10
Denham (R) by 1.13
CA-24
Capps (D) by 2.5
CA-26
Brownley (D) by 0.5
CA-36
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
CA-41
Takano (D) by 6.25
CA-47
Lowenthal (D) by 15
CA-52
Peters (D) by 0.31
CO-03
Tipton (R) by 5
CO-06
Coffman (R) by 4.38
CO-07
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
CT-05
Esty (D) by 3.13
FL-02
Southerland (R) by 6.25
FL-10
Webster (R) by 5
FL-16
Buchanan (R) by 10
FL-18
West (R) by 4.59
FL-22
Frankel (D) by 3.89
FL-26
Rivera (R) by 2
GA-12
Barrow (D) by 4.25
IL-08
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
IL-10
Dold (R) by 1.88
IL-11
Foster (D) by 2.81
IL-12
Enyart (D) by 4.94
IL-13
Gill (D) by 0.63
IL-17
Bustos (D) by 0.63
IN-02
Walorski (R) by 12.5
IN-08
Bucshon (R) by 10
IA-01
Braley (D) by 15
IA-02
Loebsack (D) by 10
IA-03
Latham (R) by 3.75
IA-04
King (R) by 3.44
KY-06
Chandler (D) by 5.19
MD-06
Delaney (D) by 5.5
MA-06
Tisei (R) by 5.5
MI-01
McDowell (D) by 1.31
MI-03
Amash (R) by 11.25
MI-11
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
MN-02
Kline (R) by 15
MN-06
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
MN-08
Nolan (D) by 2.56
MT-AL
Daines (R) by 8.67
NV-03
Heck (R) by 9
NV-04
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
NH-01
Guinta (R) by 5.31
NH-02
Kuster (D) by 4.85
NJ-03
Runyan (R) by 10.63
NY-01
Bishop (D) by 8.69
NY-11
Grimm (R) by 13.38
NY-18
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
NY-19
Gibson (R) by 3.75
NY-21
Owens (D) by 2.06
NY-24
Maffei (D) by 1.56
NY-25
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
NY-27
Collins (R) by 2.06
NC-07
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
NC-08
Hudson (R) by 10
NC-11
Meadows (R) by 12.5
ND-AL
Cramer (R) by 12.25
OH-06
Johnson (R) by 4.38
OH-16
Renacci (R) by 1.88
OK-02
Mullin (R) by 11.63
PA-06
Gerlach (R) by 15
PA-08
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
PA-12
Critz (D) by 1.88
RI-01
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
SD-AL
Noem (R) by 12
TN-04
DesJarlais (R) by 5
TX-14
Weber (R) by 6.25
TX-23
Gallego (D) by 1
UT-04
Love (R) by 8.19
VA-02
Regel (R) by 10
WA-01
DelBene (D) by 5.25
WV-03
Rahall (D) by 12.5
WI-07
Duffy (R) by 6.25
WI-08
Ribble (R) by 15
Total Representatives 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats


Now onto my final California predictions:

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+2.7
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.3
CA-07
R+8.0
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.5
CA-09
R+1.4
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+0.8
CA-10
R+8.3
R+3.8
R+12.3
R+9.6
R+8.6
CA-24
R+6.4
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.7
CA-26
R+5.6
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.8
CA-36
R+8.9
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+7.9
CA-41
R+5.7
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
R+0.4
CA-47
R+0.4
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+0.7
CA-52
R+7.6
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+6.3

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+13.2
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+6.9
SD-19
R+0.8
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.4
SD-27
R+3.8
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.0
SD-31
R+8.0
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.4
SD-39
R+2.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.0

State Assembly

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+5.9
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.2
AD-16
R+4.1
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.6
AD-21
R+2.6
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.8
AD-32
D+3.2
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.3
AD-40
R+8.5
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.8
AD-44
R+8.0
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.8
AD-60
R+12.5
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+8.4
AD-61
R+4.3
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.4
AD-65
R+8.8
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.1
AD-66
R+5.1
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.1
AD-78
D+0.2
D+12.0
D+3.4
D+1.4
D+4.3


Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California's Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP
(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP
(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP
(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sunspots, MichaelNY

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-02 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:14:50 AM PST

  •  These are some of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, lordpet8

    the most pessimistic predictions I've seen. You're outdoing some of the belt-way hacks like Cook and Sabato with regards to the House. The only odd thing is that they are not totally negative. You have some surprising results. McIntyre losing, but Barrow winning. And might be the first person I've seen to predict Paton,  and Tarkanian victories. Predicting a David Gill win while Allen West and David Rivera win reelection is just confusing. So I can't really peg these predictions. Same with predicting a Carmona victory and a Tester and Heitkamp loss.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 07:54:53 AM PST

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