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A few weeks (and months) back we were hearing that turnout wasn't supposed to be all that great... that seemed to be the accepted wisdom... the last week or so, hearing about the massive lines Florida, etc., and then again today, hearing about massive lines everywhere, the question has to be, who does this turn out benefit?

Are the GOPers claims of a frenzied base true? Is GOTV, etc. really driving Obama support back to 2008 levels?

Both?

Anyone have opinions on who will benefit most from a larger than expected turnout today?

Poll

Who will benefit most from the larger than expected turnout?

82%87 votes
12%13 votes
5%6 votes

| 106 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  It benefits Obama. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yella dawg, riottapes, sharedferret

    The whole "the polls are wrong!" argument hinges on the 2010 midterm turnout being the "new normal" and the 2008 turnout being abnormal. We abstained in 2010 to a detrimental degree... and paid the price... and now we're showing the Republicans that it will NOT happen again.

  •  It is a worry that the Republicans are coming (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    riottapes

    out.  It just takes a few percentage points to swing to turn this whole thing.

    God, I hope we know in 14 hours.

  •  The one thing I've learned from (5+ / 0-)

    watching recent elections is to never, ever, ever translate anecdotal reports of turnout into prognostication (i.e., "long lines here in Cuyahoga! We've got this!!!"). Long lines can accrue from any number of factors, only one of which is actual high turnout.

    Anyone who was here in 2004 knows this caution well.

    Grew a mustache and a mullet / Got a job at Chick-Fil-A

    by cardinal on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 07:53:19 AM PST

    •  Exactly (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yella dawg, riottapes, vlajos, cardinal

      Analogy is not evidence.

      We need to speculate less and spend more time ensuring people are going to the polls, or spending time in the line ourselves if we don't have early voting in our state.  

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

      by Delilah on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 07:57:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I can't imagine how.. (5+ / 0-)

    the republican party could have pissed off any more people. They took away my lack of enthusiasm, and lit a firecracker up my ass.

  •  It could mean more white people coming out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    riottapes

    To vote which could favor Romney. I just hope Obama wins.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 07:59:59 AM PST

    •  White people ALWAYS turn out. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      riottapes, wishingwell

      There won't be more white people than usual....they are the "likely voters" in any given model. The wild card are minorities and young people.

    •  White people DO vote for Obama... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, LeftArmed

      I know a lot that do here in Florida.  If you read the analysis over the last few days, it is the white people in the south who are giving Romney a lead among white voters.  In the north and much of the west, the split is pretty even. So fine by me if more white people vote in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!  Of course, I want more people of every color. The southern states will go for Romney no matter how many white people show, with the exception of some of the border states like Virginia and North Carolina but those areas have heavy democratic areas in parts of the state....many of them white Democratic voters. :)

    •  Not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      phonegery

      My family were pretty middle of the road with my mom and dad splitting the ticket repeatedly. The demographics put them pretty square in the middle, white middle class suburbs in NE Ohio. Slightly conservative area which my parents reflected.

      Dad would normally lean R and mom would lean D.

      Until the last set of mid-terms.

      See, they live in Ohio. My sister is a teacher, and my dad watched some of the primary debates comedy.  Mix that with Kasich's assault on unions backfiring badly. My dad is working class and never was in an union. But his daughter is in the teachers union, and he has friends who are cops and firefighters. The attack on the unions became personal to him. He voted, early even, and he made sure to vote against Mitt.  He was energized by what the Republicans were doing, but not for them.

      Add in that he's now collecting Social Security and Ryan's plan would demolish it for his friends and family...

      I don't know how he voted last time around, but I suspect it was for McCain. It wasn't for Romney. He made sure to tell everyone around him.

      My Mom started the cycle as indifferent, but Todd Akin's comments and then news coverage of how it coincided with the party platform put her in the tank for Obama. She likely would have been there already, but this made a Registered Voter (RV) into a Likely Voter (LV). ;)

  •  just look at trends (0+ / 0-)

    is all you need to do.

    If you look at 2000-2010 elections, you will notice presidential years are always way above midterms for obvious reasons.

    In 2010 we had a the rabid right turn out en masse while the dems pretty much stayed home. Hence, teabagistan house.

    So in 2010 90 million people voted, the teabags swayed the percentages because of the low total.

    In 2008 it was 135 million, same teabags voted, only less of an impact.

    So anyone who thinks the turnout is going to be less than 130 million is smoking tea crack. If anything we will see the number be the same or more(increased population alone). And the better part is, a larger or similar minority turnout.

    GOP- Fact Free since 1981!

    by KingGeorgetheTurd on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:04:47 AM PST

  •  Small town in Mass. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    riottapes

    by 10 am this morning, 20% of registered voters had voted.

  •  I've seen nothing of the Obama campaign (0+ / 0-)

    If he wins MN he owes the terribly nice and totally passionate NO campaigns for hitting every house multiple times to turnout every vote.

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