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From my blog post on here last week. I got the state 100% right here.

Before we start, I mistakenly turned on Fox and Rove is stating how dem turnout is heavily below 2008 levels. Have you checked the early vote project. Cuyahoga county is at 196,844 total voted casted as of tonight!

Much has changed in Presidential politics across America, but not in Ohio. This is due to an electorate that is politically elastic, demographically stable, and economically/culturally diverse based on geographic regions. Nate Silver gave this state 1.07 elastic rating meaning it normally follows the national trends. However, this campaign is unique due to Obama lead voter referendum drives on union rights, early voting, his administration's funding for the car auto bailout & the intense political spending here. But Ohio is unique for being the same old Ohio.

 If you average the Democratic outcome in the last 4 elections (51.5, 48.7, 46.5, 47.4) you reach 48.53%. While the Republican candidate only averages only 47.18 (46.9, 50.8, 50, 41). If you aggregate the last 4 presidential elections you essentially have a statistical tie. Historically speaking we should expect this race to swing no more then 4 points in favor of the winner. Now let's look at the valuable polling data provided by Survey USA that is probably the most unique, transparent, and predictive of the current electorate. (Unlike the Gallup & Rasmussen results which are well you know erratic, sloppy, and partisan when you account for their ownerships).

When you review the SurveyUSA internals of their most current poll today it mirrors their final results in 2008 across many categories. Firstly, their ability to capture Early Voting results is excellent because in 2008 their 30% calculation matched the actual 29%.

Also, their surveyed results of 60%-36% while weighted matches today's results of (56%/40% already voted, 58%/35% will vote early. Secondly , they are consistent in surveying racial demographics for the elections. In my opinion, the early voting figures & racial demographics are the best two indicators to project outcomes in Ohio.

2008 results 30% of electorate weighted
Obama  60% -18
McCain  36% -10.8
7.2 Obama margin

2012 results  25% of electorate already voted
Obama 56%- 14
Romney 40%- 10
Plan to vote 14% of electorate
Obama 58%- 8.12
Romney 35%- 4.9

Total Aggregate of theses results-
Obama 56.7% (57%)
Romney 38.2% (38%)

22.12 vs 14.9 = 7.22 Obama Margin

Early Voting Analysis- The Obama early voting margin percentage wise is identical to the previous election.  The question becomes what percentage of the electorate will be early voters. The key here is following the early voting numbers in both Cuyhaoga & Franklin counties vs. 2008 where the Dems accumulate their largest 2 vote margins.

Early Voting% ballots returned compared to 2008 turnout -Early project numbers
10/30 - Cuyahoga  180,347 (26.8%)  672,500- 2008
10/30 - Franklin-    167,141 (29.6%)  564,971  2008
Early voting exists here for Thurs, Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon --5 days left. -- I suspect each county will average another 15,000-20,000 (17,500) ballots returned/including lag impacts= 105,000

Total early vote 2012 vs 2008
Cuyahoga- 196,844 +87,5000 =  284,544 2012 vs 2008- 252,269
Franklin-    176,868 +87,500=  264,368 2012 vs 2008 - 207,243
Cuyahoga- 2012 % vs 2008 42.3% (39.5% 2008)
Franklin-    46.8% (44.3%)

The strength of these two counties alone makes me strongly believe that Early voting percentage for Ohio will be around 37%. Cutting through the bullshit reports that Republicans are even in early voting this proves otherwise with mathematical analysis.

57%-38% Early Vote 37% of electorate (project to 58%-39% with 2% other)
Obama 58%- 21.46
Romney 39%- 14.43

63% on voting day
Obama- 45% - 33.39
Romney- 53%- 28.35

Total =
Obama  49.81%
Romney 47.82%
Obama by 1.9%

Racial Demographics -- The white vote is slightly undercut because the pollster tends to underestimate Democrats. That was true in 2008, but I believe a 2006 D+6 turnout could be accurate with these intense early voting numbers in Dem heavy counties. Also, Survey USA slightly oversamples white voters & undersamples blacks because of the landline polling methodologies.

The final 2008 Survey USA poll  vs 2008/2004 CNN Exit polls
White 51%- McCain vs  52% vs. 56% Bush 2004
        43%  Obama  vs  46% vs. 44% Kerry 2004
Black 88%- Obama   vs 97%
        10 % McCain    vs 2%

2012 poll vs projection
85% White 50% Romney = 54%
         42% OBama  = 44%
11% Black 13% Romney
               83%

        O    R      
White    83.50    0.435    0.55    36.3225    45.925
Black    11.50    0.94    0.05    10.81    0.575
Hispanic    3.75    0.68    0.3    2.55    1.125
Asian    1    0.55    0.44    0.6875    0.55
                50.37    48.175

        100.18    50.09      
        95.995    47.9975      

The election will be 50-48 using a conservative historical analysis combined with early voting/demographic data. The early voting machine in Ohio is working well and the right wing is well just fucked by Obama's organization.

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