In the runup to the election, the very stressful runup where I couldn't stop refreshing Kos, Fivethirtyeight.com, Poll Tracker, TPM and any website that would provide even the smallest nuggets of news, I began to notice a consistent stream of early Obama obituaries. From the lovable Dick Morris to that Unskewed Polls guy the word in conservative circles was that Obama was toast.
So as an act of therapy, to help me through those most stressful, trying times, I compiled these predictions on a daily basis (I was surprised by the consistent abundance of these predictons) and posted them to my site. There are roughyl three per day, starting at 11 days before election day. Just for kicks, I even including the Nate Silver projection for each day the obituary came out. What fun! Here are a few samples....
October 28th, 9 Days OutIt's great reading, especially in the post-victory glow. I hope you'll check it out right here.....!!!
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 74.6% chance of winning
More and more, Americans are coming around to the idea that a President Romney would be a change for the better, which means that barring some unforeseen shift in public opinion Obama's days in office look to be numbered.
Newt "I'm going to be the nominee" Gingrich
I think it's very unlikely, as a historian that [Romney] can win a significant popular victory vote and not carry the electoral college. I think he's actually going to end up winning 53-47.
Dean Chambers (The unskewedpolls.com Guy)
If these numbers are right, Mitt Romney gets elected our next president with 301 electoral votes to 237 for Barack Obama. If Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, that total goes to 337 electoral votes. If Romney momentum causes him to win Oregon, New Mexico and Minnesota, he will win a total of 359 electoral votes as projected here. If Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey and Washington state come into play, they could add another 37 electoral votes to the Romney total for a final total of 396 electoral votes.
October 29th, 8 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 72.9% chance of winning
Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math — an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger.
Right now, I believe we’re currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead. Honestly, I believe that Romney is going to carry Ohio.
So the question may not be whether Mr. Romney will win, but by how much…Underlings must wonder if there will be legal consequences for the laws they’ve broken. I predict an orgy of document shredding Nov. 7.