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exit poll by party

CNN on exit polls:

More voters in the swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia blame George W. Bush than Obama for the state of the U.S. economy. Florida, Ohio and Virginia were still too close to call late Tuesday night.
And exit polling suggests that in the critical battleground state of Ohio, 59% of voters polled approve of the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers while 36% disapprove.
NY Times:
Mr. Obama recognized that to a certain extent, he had walked into a trap that Mr. Romney’s advisers had anticipated: His antipathy toward Mr. Romney — which advisers described as deeper than what Mr. Obama had felt for John McCain in 2008 — led the incumbent to underestimate his opponent as he began moving to the center before the debate audience of millions of television viewers.

But as concerned as the White House was during the last 30 days of the campaign, its polls never showed Mr. Obama slipping behind Mr. Romney, aides said. The president was helped in no small part by the tremendous amount of money the campaign built up, which had permitted him to pound his Republican rival before he had ever had a chance to fully introduce himself to the nation.

TPM:
Mitt Romney lost Latinos by unprecedented margins — even worse than the initial exit polls showed — according to a study by Latino Decisions.

An election eve poll of 5,600 voters across all 50 states by the group, which has researched the Latino vote throughout the campaign, concluded Obama won by an eye-popping 75-23 margin. Their research concluded that CNN’s exit poll estimate of 71 percent of Latinos breaking to Obama likely undercounted their support, although they agreed with the assessment that turnout equaled 10 percent of the electorate.

CNN:
The stunning defeat alarmed Republicans who fear extinction unless the party can figure out how to temper the kind of hardline immigration rhetoric that Romney delivered during his Republican primary bid.

"Latinos were disillusioned with Barack Obama, but they are absolutely terrified by the idea of Mitt Romney," said GOP fundraiser Ana Navarro, a confidante to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio.

The Economist:
But the strong performance of the publicly available polls does offer two lessons for future forecasters. The first is that pollsters’ much-criticised methodology for predicting voter turnout is working just fine. The best argument that the polls overstated Mr Obama’s support, advanced by Dan McLaughlin and Ted Frank and implemented in the “Unskewed Polls” compiled by Dean Chambers, was that they predicted a big advantage in Democratic turnout that was unlikely to materialise. In fact, exit polls show that the makeup of the electorate was almost precisely as the polls foresaw: there were a lot more Democrats than Republicans, but the independent vote went heavily for Mr Romney. This supports the interpretation offered by Josh Marshall, that a lot of voters calling themselves “independents” were really disgruntled former Republicans, presumably alienated by the tea-party movement. Although they have cast aside their party identification, they remain conservative, and preferred Mitt Romney to Mr Obama by a large margin. The conclusion is that re-weighting polls by party identification as well as demographics is a very bad idea. People can and do change their party affiliation, and if pollsters try to control for that by imposing a different turnout model on their sample, they wind up erasing the very signal—a change in the electorate’s preference—that they are trying to detect.

Nate Silver may have missed the North Dakota Senate race but Huffpost didn't http://t.co/... (h/t @EL_Swan)
@samsteinhp via TweetDeck

National Journal:

It’s easy to understand why some Republicans and pollsters dismissed the idea that the Obama coalition from 2008 would be fired up and ready to go in 2012. Not possible. Not with the unemployment rate at 14.3 percent among blacks, 10 percent among Hispanics, and 11.8 percent among adults under 30.

Yet, fired up or just trudging to the polls, those groups were among President Obama’s principal bulwarks against defeat in decisive states. In some cases they made up a greater share of the national electorate than they did in 2008. The outcome confounded some conservatives and surprised even some pollsters.

Let this WaPo piece sink in:
Republican leaders awoke Wednesday to witness their grim future. Without a makeover, a party that skews toward older, white and male voters faces political peril in an increasingly diverse and complex America.

President Obama’s decisive victory over Mitt Romney served as a clinic in 21st-century politics, reflecting expanded power for black and Hispanic voters, dominance among women, a larger share of young voters and even a rise in support among Asians.

And here's the guy that called it in The Emerging Democratic Majority, Ruy Teixeira:
Republicans can’t keep playing on the turf they’ve been playing on.

The nine lives of Obamacare is fairly remarkable: filibuster, Scott Brown, Supreme Court, yesterday ... And now it's all but guaranteed.
@DLeonhardt via Twitter for iPhone

Jon Ralston:
There is a lot to say about what happened in Nevada on Tuesday – today and later – but only a few things are crystal clear:

1.     Registration matters

2.     The Republican Party is irrelevant

3.     The Hispanic vote here is a growing and potent force

4.     Labor matters

5.     Harry Reid is God (or the devil)

Michael Tomasky:
There was also no way Obama voters were as enthusiastic as Romney voters. Just no way. The enthusiasm gap. Everyone bought it. Again, the opposite was true.

Americans were going to be outraged by Benghazi. Chicago made up jobs numbers. Florida was a done deal. Romney had momentum until Sandy. And on and on.

Conservatives say these things with such conviction. I think they believe them to be true. And there's a reason for that. Not so long ago, when conservatives said these things en bloc, they would come true. They'd happen. Back in Clinton's day, say. Or Bush's, before the debacles really hit home.

But then at some point, the majority of Americans stopped buying conservative bullshit. It must have been after Iraq. And Katrina. But now, conservatives can't make surrealities come true just by saying so.

Monkey Cage:
As [Nate] Silver’s work has increased in popularity, so has the scientific approach to studying politics, which is good news for political scientists who want to share their work with a broader audience. Much like the publication of Moneyball sent shivers down the spines of traditional baseball scouts who feared for their jobs, the traditional pundit class knows the more quantitative approach is catching on and has therefore been highly defensive (as witnessed by the attacks by David Brooks and Peggy Noonan).

Silver draws a mixed reaction from an informal poll of political scientists. While we don’t fear for our jobs, there is no doubt there is some professional jealousy at Silver’s success. But there are good reasons for some healthy skepticism while at the same time respecting Silver’s work ethic and flair for explaining statistics to the public.

Felix Salmon on Nate, Simon Jackman and other quants:
Silver is the most visible of the quants, partly because of his perch at the NYT, partly because he has a new book out, and partly because he’s very good at taking his complex mathematical model and turning it into bite-sized English-language blog posts. If you think that the value of Nate Silver is in the model, you’re missing the most important part: there are lots of people with models, and most of those models are pretty similar to each other. The thing which sets Silver apart from the rest is that he can write: he can take a model and turn it into a narrative, walking his readers through to his conclusions.
Ian Reifowitz:
The president's re-election should serve to cement the sentiment among nonwhites that they are indeed full members of the American community; a person of color can become our leader -- even twice. A second Obama term does not mean we are a post-racial society any more than did his first. And the president must help bridge the gap between culturally anxious white Americans and the minorities who, taken together, are projected to be the majority within two generations.

But our country has made undeniable progress toward inclusion in recent years. With any luck, we've seen the last presidential candidate whose campaign plays on racial divisions and stereotypes.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Charles M. Blow has a terrific column today (15+ / 0-)

    titled Picket Fence Apocalypse, about which I write in No, you cannot have your country back. America is moving forward.

    You absolutely should read the Blow column.

    I invite you to read my post about it.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:32:32 AM PST

  •  Why Latino Decisions is probably right (5+ / 0-)

    on the Latino vote split -

    the national exits do not include TX, CA (? and NM?), which represent a substantial share of the national Latino vote, and which likely was more effected by both the executive order on the Dream Act and the law in AZ.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:36:48 AM PST

  •  Dear PBO....throw the GOP an anchor....propose (10+ / 0-)

    some climate change legislation.

    •  It doesn't even have to be painful for them. (7+ / 0-)

      It can look very "capitalism-friendly."  How about more subsidies to and encouragement to invest in wind power?  And exploring the creation of infrastructure for green power sources?  

      Currently one of the biggest obstacles to businesses investing in green industries is that they see the government subsidizing oil, coal, gas and the other carbon sources at every step along the way.  From finding the sources, to extraction, to distribution, we, the taxpayers, are helping fund it all through subsidies of those industries.  If they saw that sort of support for green energy sources, more corporations would surely hop on to take advantage of them.
           

      Metaphors be with you.

      by koosah on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:56:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  subsidies to schools to erect wind turbines (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        koosah

        How about subsidies so school districts and townships can erect wind turbines (turbines that are made in America), possibly also rooftop solar panels?  If hundreds of thousands of schools, firehouses, municipal buildings, and bridges had wind turbines supplying power for their own needs with any excess added to the local power grid, we could further reduce our reliance on foreign and non-"green" (particularly coal) energy sources.  

        The hardware, controls and software would all be "made in America" and help the economy, jobs and tax receipts (from the payroll taxes (social security and Medicare) and income taxes paid by those additional employees and income taxes paid by the companies employing them and supplying the hardware, controls and software.

        It would be win, win, win, win for the economy, jobs, environment and tax revenues.

    •  here's a real anchor: bush tax cuts expire. (10+ / 0-)

      then challenge the house to craft a middle class tax cut legislation he can sign.

      BAM!

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:02:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  ,,, (10+ / 0-)
    Pollsters Won, Too, With Accurate Numbers

    Industry Had a Strong Performance Despite Falling Response Rates and Challenges Reaching Cellphone-Only Households

    Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in Raleigh, N.C., turned in a particularly strong performance. Dr. Panagopoulos found that PPP was tied for the third-most-accurate of the 28 firms. It also called the correct winner in each swing state.

    And Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political scientist who has been analyzing polling during the campaign for the Huffington Post, said that PPP "did really well," by the standard of not skewing its polls toward either party.

    The most accurate national polls came from Ipsos/Reuters and YouGov, Dr. Panagopoulos found. The final Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll gave Mr. Obama a one-percentage-point edge, tying for 10th-most-accurate of the 28 firms.

    "It was on balance a good night for the industry," said Tom Jensen, director of PPP. "It was particularly good for us personally." Mr. Jensen credited the industry's success to its ability to weight polls properly to account for low response rates.

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:42:18 AM PST

      •  He needs to give up on "THE math" (5+ / 0-)

        seems the only math he gets is how many hundreds of millions he can rip off from the uber-wealthy.
        Can you imagine being Sheldon Adelson waking up on Wednesday morning, having spent $29,237,047 million and nothing to show for it, except maybe one or two House races?

        HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:59:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Total Adelson contributions to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes

          Republican candidates from the primaries through the general election was close to $100 million, $20-$30 million of which was to tax exempt organizations.  But that's still chump change to someone whose personal fortune is approximately $20.5 BILLION.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:39:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A lot of that $20 billion (0+ / 0-)

            is tied up in property (casinos and the like). What Adelson spent was non-tax deductible cash.
            He's very pissed.

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:42:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  True however you do not get rich by giving (0+ / 0-)

            Away anything you don't have to. Most of the rich people I know are cheap. You don't see panhandlers hitting up the most affluent individual in a crowd.

            One guy was too cheap to change the oil in his Mercedes and shopped in thrift stores. He was incredulous at how extravagant his employees were w/ paying full price for normal purchases; clothing, lunch, that sort of thing.

            No wonder we were so poorly paid!

        •  Karl Rove Has His Own Math (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes

          Remember his "I Reject Your Reality And Substitute My Own" moment after Fox News called Ohio for Obama? He said "only 991 votes separating" the candidates when right there on the screen beside him were the current totals: 2,162,012 Obama / 2,131,776 Romney.

          On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

          by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:01:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It just surprised me (0+ / 0-)

            to see what used to be a politcally savvy guy deny the reality that was right in front of his face.
            As the "decision makers" called it, the remaining counties that hadn't been called yet were going to lean heavily towards Obama and there was no support left in the state for Romney, and Rove still denied it.

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:05:03 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks, Ken, for including my column today. (6+ / 0-)

    If anyone has any questions or comments, I'll be around to read and reply, even if not right away. Thanks!

  •  I don't think so Ian. (20+ / 0-)
    And the president must help bridge the gap between culturally anxious white Americans and the minorities who, taken together, are projected to be the majority within two generations.
    How bout the leaders of these culturally anxious Whites extend the fucking olive branch. Maybe start with an apology for their despicable behavior.

    "No clear mandate" is the new "It's tied"

    by jazzence on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:42:44 AM PST

    •  do they need a handout or a hand up? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle, skohayes, Ian Reifowitz
      culturally anxious white Americans

      2016: Clinton in Landslide Victory Over Christie!

      by memofromturner on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:55:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  i'm over all this "what the president must do" (6+ / 0-)

      bullshit.

      no he doesn't have to "reach across the aisle"; no he doesn't have to "bridge the gap with culturally anxious white americans".

      For fuck's sake.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:16:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's what the president needs to do... (7+ / 0-)
        "The people made it clear what they wanted," he said. "I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and I intend to spend it."
        This was a quote from a president who won re-election by the slimmest of margins:

                                Bush                 Kerry

        Popular vote    62,040,610    59,028,444
        Percentage    50.7%            48.3%

        The votes aren't even all in yet and so far Obama has won by as large a % and by the time all the votes are counted more votes.  Not to mention by a wider electoral vote total than the 286-251 Bush won by.

                                Obama             Romney

        Popular vote    60,662,601    57,821,399
        Percentage    50.4%              48.1%

        So if Bush had a mandate and had political capital he wanted to spend on ending Social Security then frankly the response by Obama should be 'FUCK YOU GOP.  You want to negotiate then call me motherfuckers.  Otherwise go to hell.'  Of course he won't say that.  But he at the very least should remind the people that he too has a mandate and some political capital to spend and he intends to spend it with or without the GOP.  Starting with the fiscal cliff.  If the GOP doesn't come to him then all he has to do is wait.  All the tax cuts expire.  He holds ALL the cards.  

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:45:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just keep in mind. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          princess k, tb mare

          Bush 2005-06 is not our model. He got nowhere on Social Security and his party got swamped in Nov. 2006. Having said that, on policy, your sentiment is right on, Obama should (and will, I believe) bring about legislative solutions that reflect the 'capital' he's won in this election.

          •  Bush got swamped because (5+ / 0-)

            he took on one of the third rails.  If Obama grabs that third rail and tries to compromise it away with the GOP when he has all the cards, well you can expect another 2010 wave against him in 2014.

            My point is that the GOP is pretending that Obama won by the slimmest of margins and that it is his obligation therefore to unite a divided nation by reaching over and betraying his and our principles to negotiate with the GOP.

            But back in 2004 they were acting as if their president who won by as slim if not slimmer had a mandate to basically do what ever the fuck he wanted.  

            Can't have it both way.  IMO Obama doesn't have to reach over for anything.  They should come to Obama's side and negotiate in good faith or go to hell and let ALL the tax cuts expire.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:11:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Boehner is making me grind (3+ / 0-)

        my teeth this morning.

        We want the president to succeed.
        Well, isn't that a nice change? Seeing the writing on the wall, perhaps Boehner is realizing that Tea Party pandering is going to put his job and his majority in jeopardy, and he needs to actually accomplish something the next two years, or the Democrats will take over again.
        I don't care what you do over the next two years, Boehner- you're done in 2014.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:07:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Didn't Boehner basically say he wants O to succeed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes

          ...in implementing a GOP agenda?

          I don't know what's been trickling down, but it hasn't been pleasant---N. Pelosi

          by Russycle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:02:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, actually (0+ / 0-)

            he said something like the election proved that America wants Obama to "work with" the Republicans (read: AGREE WITH EVERYTHING WE WANT).
            LOL

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 02:04:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Whether he "needs" to do it or not... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ian Reifowitz, ratcityreprobate

        ... He will though, because it is important to him.

        He's Lincoln not John Brown

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:39:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is what he wants to do. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes

      But of course there's only so much he can do on that front. That's why I said "help." He can't do it alone. He has always sought to do to bridge that gap, and he has, I believe, made progress even if it's not something we can measure or see in our 24-hour "look over there!" media. He will continue to do so whether I say so or not, believe me. But of course, as I've written elsewhere, the culturally anxious whites have to change their attitude about diversity. Obama can/will/must help ease that anxiety with his language of inclusion. But I'll admit, it's frustrating to express a complex argument in 600 words. Still, that's on me.

      •  But he's always been that way. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ian Reifowitz, tb mare

        He's always reached across the aisle and been inclusive of the conservative view, much to the chagrin of his progressive base.
        Those "culturally anxious" whites are racists, misogynist asses who think Obama is the Manchurian candidate and we'll be replacing St Paul's cathedral with the Taj Mahal.
        There's no point in even trying.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:10:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed except for: "There's no point in trying" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tb mare, skohayes

          Sure there is. Because trying will succeed. And success means reducing racial prejudice. And doing that means more support for the kinds of solutions we need to increase equality. Also, even the worst stone cold racist might change their mind, or at least maybe not pass it on to his/her kids. That helps too. And not all the culturally anxious whites are deep-seated racist. Change is hard for people, it makes them nervous, especially when they are already economically vulnerable. Obama gets this, you can see it in his speeches and writings. The Philadelphia race speech is a perfect example--where he shows he "gets" where they are coming from, which then opens them up to the possibility of absorbing his other ideas on equality, etc.

          •  I love your optimism (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ian Reifowitz

            But I live out here in rural western America (and before that in the south), and the racists will NEVER support Obama. Especially as long as the Tea Party encourages that racism.
            An acquaintence of mine called one of his employees a "little nigger" yesterday because the employee was excited about Obama winning. If this man had been working for me, he would no longer have a job.
            What was even sadder was that the employee told me he didn't want to make a big deal about it. This is a young Hispanic guy, going to college part time, working full time with a wife and 2 kids- I'd much rather we keep reaching out to this demographic than waste time with old white racists that will never change.

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:02:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Anything and everything our President has (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        belle1, Ian Reifowitz

        said and done has been taken as evidence of unreasoning hostility and malice by the unreasoningly hostile and malicious. (Can you say pro-jec-tion?) While a very small fraction can be brought to see the light, and a fairly large fraction can be brought to coping with reality over several decades, the only long-term solution is for their children and grandchildren, along with ours, to pry the levers of power from their cold, dead hands. As the Russian proverb says, We will bury them (and get on with life).

        There are two essential shifts going on in American politics: demographic and generational.

        The demographic shift particularly includes the rise of the non-Cuban Latino vote, including increasing rates of registration and voting. In particular, there are about 50,000 Latinos reaching voting age each month, 600,000 each year.

        In the generational shift, children who learn something about previously despised minorities, the other sex, LGBTs, and the rest of us, and about evolution and birth control, fall away from Curse of Ham theology and the other excuses why God made us better than other men, and women don't count.

        In every election cycle for the next generation, we can expect a few more Red states to come into play for Democrats (like Virginia and North Carolina in 2008), and more Purple states to go Blue, as California did some time back. We can also expect this inevitable change to be bitterly resisted until ever-more-wacky Republicans not only cannot win national elections, but also cannot win statewide offices such as Senator and Governor.

        Being mugged by reality is not enough to convert the diehard racist, bigot, or would-be kleptocrat. It is necessary for them to become irrelevant, so that some other group takes over on the Conservative side. I fully expect the Republican Party to go the way of the Federalists and the Whigs, and the Democratic Party to fracture into Liberal and Corporate wings. But we should be able to get a fair amount done in between.

        America—We built that!

        by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:52:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  And of course, the leaders of those groups (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      Bear the brunt of the responsibility for ginning up the divisiveness. No question. I'm not talking for one second about Obama sitting down with, say Limbaugh, and making nice. I'm talking about Obama doing what he always does, speaking in an inclusive way that provides a counter-voice to the divisiveness, something that can attract and appeal to those who hear Limbaugh, for example, but can also be swayed the other way -- toward feeling positively about those different from themselves. It's my fault for not being clear enough to make that point.

  •  "more blame Bush for the state of the economy" (14+ / 0-)

    But even phrasing this in this context is still Republican spin.

    The economy has been consistently and steadily recovering for 3 years, but the MSM continues to let Republicans lie about GDP and job growth. There has been no economic contraction since 2009 and no net job losses since mid-2010. Who gets credit for that?

  •  Carl, please refund my million. (5+ / 0-)

    "Lets show the rascals what Citizens United really means."

    by smiley7 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:45:26 AM PST

  •  damn this feels as good this a.m. as tues.nite!n/t (11+ / 0-)
    •  don't it though? (6+ / 0-)

      this week begins the overt GOP civil war.

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:50:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All this "mea culpa" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tb mare, stevemb

        from pundits who failed to see the writing on the wall (also known as polling) really makes me ill.
        Even Romney strategists were ignoring the accurate polling in favor of polling that fit their narrative (momentum, etc).
        Jennifer Rubin is backtracking so fast, she looks like the roadrunner in reverse.

        Until October it was the Perils of Pauline campaign. It moved in fits and starts on foreign policy. The message was rarely consistent from day to day. Gobs of ads were aired to no apparent effect. The convention speech was a huge missed opportunity. Romney made a lunge now and then in the direction of immigration reform and an alternative health-care plan without giving those topics the attention they deserved. The communications team was the worst of any presidential campaign I have ever seen — slow and plodding, never able to capitalize on openings. It was hostile, indifferent and unhelpful to media, conservative and mainstream alike.
        http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

        Remember on Twitter when she bashed Nate Silver for "averaging polls"? LOL

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:26:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes

          Poor Mitt won't even be finished unpacking his stuff from Mr. Bus before everybody else in the right-wing echo chamber has finished flushing him and their support for him down the memory hole.

          On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

          by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:09:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  And the comments to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevemb

        Charles Lane's column (second link above), are quite enlightening.

        Over time, between Fox and the right-wing publications, the right-leaning developed its own reality. The central theme: "Those liberals, illegals, etc. are the reason you're miserable". The degree to which the right-leaning believe this is clearly evidenced by the nastiness you see in a lot of right-wing blog entries.  

        You can make precisely the same case for MSNBC regarding bias. However, their viewership is significantly smaller and doesn't dominate the Democratic party the way Fox's presence dominates the GOP's. At least, not yet.

        BTW: I voted for the GHW Bush, Bob Dole and GW Bush (in 2000). The first two were incredibly honorable men, the latter I held my nose for as I couldn't stand some of the baggage that came with him. I'd be happy to vote for the republicans again if they can move towards center.

        Furthermore, one of the most fundamental paradoxes confronting the Repub coalition at this point is the tensoin between libertarianism and their "Moral Majority" social agenda interventionism. These are fundamentally inconsistent. They only way for them to really consistently commit to the more libertarian, free-market positoins that you suggest is to purge the party of those who seek to use the goverment to advance and impose their social agenda on the country.  
         
        In no way, shape or form, is the Republican Party, the party of individualism! They lost that mantra the moment they got in bed, (no pun intended), with the religious right. How can a party call itself the preserver of individual freedoms and liberty when it tries so hard to curtail it to so many! And the moment you question their motives, you are branded a radical, a Marxist-Leninist, an anti-American. I am happy that this party got burned this past election! And this is from a fiscally conservative, socially liberal, TRUE Republican!

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:54:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If you haven't watched Jon Stewart's rant (5+ / 0-)

      from last night's Daily Show, do it now. You'll laugh your ass off.    Excellent watching the Master of Satire put FOX News where it belongs:  on the TV trash heap.  

      I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones. (John Cage)

      by dotalbon on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:03:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Even better this morning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      I got some sleep last night. I felt hungover when I woke up yesterday morning.
      And the Republicans going for each other's throats is just icing on the cake.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:12:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  They STILL don't get it, do they? (10+ / 0-)

    Nate Silver is not the oncologist; he is the CT-Scan technician.

    After Nate 'gave away' his technology, I worried that the Rs would - naturally - use it to their advantage in 2014 and 2016. Apparently that's not going to happen.

    Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

    by Clem Yeobright on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:49:15 AM PST

    •  at this point, it's just professional jealousy (5+ / 0-)

      Before the election, I compared Nate to the guy who made millions by inventing that singing fish. Yes, anyone could have done it, bitter statistician and/or political scientist, but you didn't. He did.

      There was a demand for reality-based punditry and Nate met it with an attractive product accessible to non-academics.

      •  no, not professional jealousy (6+ / 0-)

        that's pundits vs nate. The quants were all correct, so it's happy celebration of arithmatic.

        We're not alone on this. Drew Linzer at Votomatic, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Sam Wang... it looks like we've all hit it.

        And think about that for a moment. The "quant triumph" here is more about the way we've approached the problem: a blend of political insight, statistical modeling, a ton of code and a fire hose of data from the pollsters. Since at least four or five of us will claim 51/51 (subject to FL) this cycle, it's not "a Nate thing." It's a data-meets-good-model, scientific-method thing. Mark Blumenthal has expressed similar thoughts here.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:47:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Nate & Sam Are Doctors Doing A Rectal Exam... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Clem Yeobright

      ...the blowhard pundits are just guys reaching up their own asses and pulling stuff out.

      On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

      by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:16:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly. "Silver vs. the Pundits" is stupid.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Clem Yeobright

      ...framing.  The pundits shouldn't be spending all their time parsing the polls, they should be talking about policies, who's telling the biggest whoppers, and other stuff that citizens need to know to make an informed decision.

      The horse race should be a minor part of the narrative, instead of 90 percent of it.  But that's how they roll, and Silver is totally taking the wind out of their sails.  It's too bad we don't hand out knighthoods, because Silver will certainly deserve one if his work forces our Villagers to stop yakking about polls and actually do their fucking jobs.

      I don't know what's been trickling down, but it hasn't been pleasant---N. Pelosi

      by Russycle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:10:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  the economist claims independents went heavily (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, mayim, Ian Reifowitz, skohayes, askew

    for romney...the exit polls above from 18 states show a 50/50 split

    2016: Clinton in Landslide Victory Over Christie!

    by memofromturner on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:52:39 AM PST

  •  "Enthusiasm" gap, my derriere! (12+ / 0-)

    Just read in the WaPo that turnout in Fairfax County, VA, where I live was 80 percent!  And in Virginia itself, 70 percent!  Someone on the Evening Nudes last night called Virginia's turnout "historic."

    Doesn 't do to piss off lady-Americans!

    Thanks for the roundup, Greg, interesting as always.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:53:56 AM PST

  •  What Republicans don't understand is one of the (20+ / 0-)

    reasons why African-Americans, Latinos, and the young came out in huge numbers in 2012 despite having a supposed "enthusiasm" gap was that many were pissed off by the voter suppression laws that the GOP were pushing.  That really riled up these groups.

    Once these groups realized that their rights were being infringed upon then they came out in huge numbers to make it clear that they will not be denied their rights.  For example, take away the Sunday of voting just before election day then we will do "Operation Lemonade" which is voting in mass the Sunday before that Sunday, etc.

    Thus by the time election day was coming these groups were "Fired Up and Ready to Go".

    If the GOP hadn't try to suppress their votes perhaps these groups wouldn't have been so fired up.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:54:51 AM PST

    •  Told the wifey after Sharpton et al started (13+ / 0-)

      pounding away at this that it was one of the dumbest moves the GOP could make......That and treating Obama like he was a low class chicago hustler.

      •  they always overreach. I have to tell you (10+ / 0-)

        SEEING the 6-8 hour lines with hundreds of black and brown people standing in line, the voter suppression BY DESIGN, made me angrier than I have been in 25 years since my days as a black nationalist in university.

        I was SO ANGRY that I had to actually be "talked down" by good friends who knew that it was not in my best interest to act on the things I was thinking about.

        So, yeah. I think you're dead on. It backfired on them, major.

        For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

        by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:21:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The President got it just right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle
          Don't boo, vote. Voting is the best revenge.
          The best line in his acceptance speech was about the long, long voting lines:
          We have to do something about that.
          I see that you are still fired up and ready to go. I'm with you.

          I'm officially White, but in reality a mix of Jewish, Polish, Scottish, Irish, Welsh, and a few other things that they pretended to promote into the majority. A lot of my people remember when we weren't White, when we were the enemy at the gates. A lot of my people are with you, no matter how they try to divide us and set us against each other.

          Go down, Moses, way down in Egypt land.
          Tell old Pharaoh to let my people go vote.
          Besides, I'm with Darwin. I'm proud of my Black African ancestry that I share with everybody else on the planet.

          America—We built that!

          by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:15:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Today's Vocabulary Word (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skillet
        treating Obama like he was a low class chicago hustler
        projection (pr& JEK sh&n) The attribution of one's own attitudes, feelings, or suppositions to others.

        On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

        by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:18:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  once again, GOP needs to address real problems (7+ / 0-)

      They poured so much effort into fighting imaginary voter fraud and all they did was further alienate the new minority-majority for several election cycles while ensuring they would wait in line for hours, day and weeks to exercise their rights.

      Jim Crow is dead, and his tricks aren't going to work anymore. If they can't win the votes of the minority-majority, they sure as hell better not try to stop them, or they will punished again and again.

      •  Meanwhile, practically the only examples of (5+ / 0-)

        actual voter fraud or election tampering came from of the republicans.

        They really need to revisit their ideas of morality because it apparently includes committing crimes.  They've convinced themselves that it's OK when they throw out Democratic registration cards or fill out an incomplete ballot in favor of republicans because it's for a "good cause."  Anything goes in their twisted morality.    

        We have a young pro-Romney person in our family who hasn't lived in OH for over two years and still voted there by absentee ballot and BRAGGED about it on Facebook.  She considers herself a good Catholic and liked Romney because he was a "good Christian."  I'd say she was uneducated, but she just graduated from the University of Colorado.

        No republicans, It's NOT OK If You're A Republican.  IOKIYAR must be renounced by them.        

        Metaphors be with you.

        by koosah on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:24:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But see Jimmy Crow on Doonesbury (0+ / 0-)

        and The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness, by Michelle Alexander.

        The states that just decriminalized marijuana on Tuesday are in the forefront of that fight. (We are up to 18 states with some form of medical marijuana or decriminalization.) California scaling back its Three Strikes laws, too.

        America—We built that!

        by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:24:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed absolutely (6+ / 0-)

      What I find amusing is that the GOP brain trusts believe their own racist claptrap: that minority voters wouldn't come out because they were lazy;  and would believe the numerous lies the GOP sent their way because they were stupid; that they would be afraid to push back against polling place harassment because they had something nefarious to hide.  All of these assumptions by the GOP turned out to be false.

      They stood in long lines that were part of the GOPs design to discourage and disenfranchise them.  The longer the line, the greater the attempt to drive them away failed.  

      "My dear friends, your vote is precious, almost sacred. It is the most powerful nonviolent tool we have to create a more perfect union." ---Representative John Lewis

      by SottoVoce on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:23:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  We have a pretty (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      large Hispanic population out here in Kansas that is fairly conservative, but many that I talked to got pissed off about the voter ID laws (pretty obvious who they were aimed at).

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:30:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Will Obama enact a progressive agenda, or .... (0+ / 0-)

    will he hide behind, and blame the Republicans for not getting more done?

    Both parties for the most part support the 1%. Even the Democrats, for example, have not pushed the poverty issue since 1980. There is a reason that the approval of the legislative branch is at historic lows. The two parties do not represent majority positions like the necessity of dealing with climate change.

    Glenn Greenwald begins this piece by recounting the historic victory of Democrats and Liberals in this election.

    Then he gives a 6 step process followed for example in the health care debate, and asks if Obama is going to follow those steps or enact a progressive agenda.

    My hunch is that he will continue to compromise with the crazy Republicans.

    What do you think?

    Here is the link to the Greenwald article.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/...

    •  Presidents don't "enact" agendas (4+ / 0-)

      We have a Congress that enacts the laws. The President can do a lot in setting the agenda, but only so far as the legislative process cooperates with that. Witness the idiotic debt ceiling russian roulette games the House played.

      Expect more of the same, and please don't blame Obama for not "enacting a progressive agenda" in the next four years. It's going to be godawful ugly just getting business done with the obstructionist Congress, and it's not going to be pretty in that many compromises will have to be made. If you want a progressive agenda, start working on the house elections of 2014.

      Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

      by TheCrank on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:14:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If he fully implements obamacare (6+ / 0-)

      And appoints a couple more lefty justices, he'll have advanced a miraculously progressive agenda despite the gerrymandered house.

    •  If he wants to get anything done (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      he has to compromise with the Republicans because they still hold the majority in the House.
      He will also compromise with Republicans because he is not just the president of liberals and progressives, but the president of the entire US.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:34:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Steve Israel should be removed immediately (10+ / 0-)

    from his post as head of the DCCC.  He has refused to fund progressive Democratic candidates for House seats that Dem's had a good chance of picking up in favor of funding Blue Dogs that Democratic voters do not want and Republicans will not vote for.

    Edward Teller quotes DCCC critic Howard Klein in an article at Fire Dog Lake recounting Israel's "using DCCC-related money to take out ads against a progressive Democrat in West Virginia:

    So Israel, who “officially” left the right-wing Blue Dog caucus and New Dem Coalition when he decided to go for a Democratic Party leadership role, set about trying to make sure to leave a clear path for Oliverio in 2014. The problem was just some activist grandmother with a grassroots following, Sue Thorn. Needless to say, Israel directed the DCCC and its allies and affiliates to ignore her and he told big Democratic donors to not give her any money. But he didn’t stop there. Even though the Democrats hold a heavy registration advantage in WV-01 and even though Thorn outpolled McKinley in the primary this year (49,203 to 36,107), Israel connived with the Blue Dog PAC, Center Forward, to run TV spots against Sue Thorn. Yeah… read that again. He the chairman of the DCCC, who Nancy Pelosi admiringly describes as reptilian, watched with glee as his close allies at the Blue Dog Research Forum (now called Center Forward) took out TV spots not just for reactionary, anti-Choice Democrats like Joe Donnelly, Mike McIntyre, Jim Matheson, Ben Chandler and John Barrow, but also for reactionary, anti-Choice Republican David McKinley. Ever hear of anything like that before? Is that why Pelosi called him “reptilian?” No, she thinks he’s fabulous.

    Or she did. I wonder what she thinks about the breathtaking incompetence so clearly demonstrated across the board last night. All his horrid Blue Dog recruits lost. And, tragically, he was the cause of so many progressives who had ZERO DCCC support losing as well. In WV-01 Sue was beaten out by McKinley– one of the few things that went the way Israel planned it– around 60 to 40%.

     There are other examples given by Teller and Klein outlining Steve Israel's using DCCC money to back Blue Dog candidates throughout the country even when there were viable progressive candidates running for the seats, and how ALL of those Blue Dog candidates LOST to Republicans.

    It's time for Israel to go.  It's time to get all the Blue Dogs out of House leadership positions, and to stop spending congressional campaign funds to block progressive primary candidates and support Blue Dog candidates who can not win - and even if they do, will not support the Democratic agenda.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:56:54 AM PST

  •  Much more than just immigration (5+ / 0-)

    I expect the Republicans to moderate on immigration - that helps the bosses as much as it helps the workers.  This was all dog whistle for the knuckle draggers anyway.  

    I expect Republicans to think a few cosmetic fixes on immigration will fix the problem.  I'm a regular person, who spends too much time at dKos and other progressive sites but I managed to find a few minutes of my life to track the polls of Latinos through this election cycle, albeit far less than actual politicians should be paying attention.  

    Jobs and health care really matter to the Latino voter.  How exactly are Republicans going to respond to that?  They're not going to moderate on those issues - it is at the heart of their delusional core to expect tax cuts for the rich and the elimination of decent regulations to fix the jobs problem and they will do nothing about health care but seek to destroy any common sense efforts to fix the system.  

    I cannot fathom that the Republicans are ready to view Latino issues any differently than the caricatures they already believe.  

  •  Still in the bubble (7+ / 0-)

    So the Republicans lost people in chunks - Hispanics, women, African Americans. How about recognizing that we are all Americans and we rejected your candidates because their ideas sucked? The post-election analysis blows me away.
    PS Have a great day Karl Rove!

    I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

    by hulibow on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:59:13 AM PST

  •  pfft. i'm tired of "culturlaly anxious white (7+ / 0-)

    americans".

    I don't think anybody ahs to expend any effort to assuage their...."anxiety".

    fuck that. the train is leaving the station. get on with the rest of america or stay where the fuck you are on the tracks. i don't give a shit.

    pfft.

    For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

    by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:00:51 AM PST

    •  got 'em walled off in Dixie. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle
      •  No, we are taking Dixie, too (0+ / 0-)

        Virginia is moving our way, Florida and North Carolina are always in play, and Latinos are on the rise in Texas.

        I wrote here in 2009

        The Young South is Ours

        There are lots of Progressives in Dixie. Not enough to win statewide elections yet, but more every year.

        Neil Gaiman on Anti-South Prejudice

        Read To Kill a Mockingbird and Fried Green Tomatoes at the Whistle Stop Cafe. Watch the movies, too, but read the books. The movies left out too much.

        America—We built that!

        by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:40:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Then think of it like this. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      The point is to help them leave behind their prejudices. Doing so helps the country and helps progressive causes achieve success. That's not worth any effort at all to you? We're talking about rhetoric, here, not special programs. But either way, this is what Obama is all about, for twenty years.

      •  Well I too have a good deal of experience in this (5+ / 0-)

        area and IMO the best way to help them "leave behind their prejudices" is to just carry on.

        Human are amazingly resilient. They are also incredibly keen on self preservation. If these retrogrades decide they want to be irrelevant they will maintain their positions. Or if they decide they want to have a life and future, they will adapt.

        there is no possible way to actively help them "leave behind their prejudices" other than black and brown people and other folks just living their lives. These anxious people will either interact, see that their prejudices are unfounded and adapt or they won't. No special effort needs to be taken - and it would be futile anyway. The country has been integrated since the 70s. The president has been elegant and gracious and measured and every other positive attribute since the beginning. You cannot change someone's attitude by "bridging the gap" somehow. I don't buy into it and as I said, I've plenty of reason and hands on experience that make me come to this conclusion.

        For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

        by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:22:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What you said makes much sense, I agree. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle

          I'm trying to make the point that he's already doing this, he already speaks about inclusion in a very positive way that does help. He did it again in the Victory Speech, which I quote from the in the full piece. It's not about special effort, it's about him using the kind of language he's always used, and will continue to use.

          •  well FWIW, i think Obama's influence is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ian Reifowitz

            limited in this case. Possibly even BECAUSE he is who he is and has been so vilified and caricatured by the right.

            I don't expect him to change his tune. And I think it's the right tone to take as president.

            But I don't believe much that he does will change prejudices. It hasn't happened and I don't think it will. I think there's very little he can do to change the minds of those who are racist in the 21st century. I mean think of it: a racist in the 21st century. You think a conciliatory president is going to effect that? I don't. I do, however, believe that he could advance their cause if he was less than upstanding and the embodiment of the man he is. That's the conundrum. For a racist, a black person can be smart, well spoken, rich, successful, a great family person, have great values...they can be all that. And it will not change their attitudes about us. But if that person makes one mistake, it "confirms" everything they believe about that race of people.

            The real problem is that people like Obama are the "exception".

            Here's a short story from my own life:

            in junior high and senior high I went to private schools. All my friends were white. In junior high one day at a party my friends said to me, "you're not like the other black people. you're cool."

            Now, at 12 years old, I took it as a compliment. But years later I realized all my "friends" were racists. Even their exposure to me was not enough to change their prejudices about black people. I was just seen as "one of the good ones".

            This is why I disagree with this idea that we can change people's prejudices. We can't. They have to adapt and evolve. It's just that simple.

            Want another story. University. Penn State. I got my roomie's phone number over the summer. We talked on the phone multiple times and really couldn't wait to meet each other. She was from Johnstown PA.

            When she opened the door to our dorm room, I was already there and her mouth dropped open. She couldn't even think what to say other than, "Are you mdmslle?" as if it was impossible to have carried on a conversation with me and now look, here I am, black. Her father never came back into the room after that. And she later admitted to me that he never saw a black person in real life until me.

            What I'm saying is, there's limited ability to change people. They must change themselves and no amount of "setting an example" for them is going to work. In fact, it's almost offensive to feel like I have some responsibility to help someone not be a racist asshole. I don't. I should have to live my life "proving" anything to someone or behaving as if my actions are relevant to whether someone carries irrational prejudices. I'm not taking ownership of that. And it's slightly offensive to even consider it.

            For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

            by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:30:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  correction SHE admitted that SHE never (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Ian Reifowitz

              saw a black person in real life until me. (but maybe her dad hadn't either).

              For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

              by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:32:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks for sharing those experiences. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                mdmslle

                And it isn't your responsibility to change anyone's minds. It isn't Obama's 'responsibility' either, but it is something he's chosen to take on, as he's written. Plus, as President, he does have responsibilities beyond what you have as an individual.

                All I'll say is that I'd be curious to see those people today that you interacted with in at 12 years old and at Penn State, and I wonder if their interactions with you didn't, over the long run, have a positive influence on them and those whom they influenced. Who knows?

        •  Well said, mdmslle. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ian Reifowitz, mdmslle

          People's attitudes are changed only by themselves.  If they see their country going forward without them; if they see themselves more and more marginalized by the rest of society, they tend eventually to rationalize themselves into acceptance of forward momentum.  If not, they risk being left behind while the rest of the country moves on without them.  They can get with the momentum or they can foment open revolt and chance being rendered utterly irrelevant.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:40:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  One question?: "only by themselves" (0+ / 0-)

            People aren't moved or influenced by others? Ever? I know you're talking about those with prejudices. I have to disagree. I think MLK, just for one example, moved people to change their prejudices. That's what I'm talking about here.

            •  well see here's where I disagree. MLK did nothing (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Ian Reifowitz, SueDe

              to change people's prejudices.

              What he did was create a movement to force legal action. Which in turn forced people to rub elbows with those they hated. It's not like anyone who hated black people before MLK suddenly listened to him or watched him and said, "Hey, you know what? black people are OK with me."

              No. He mobilized the black community and created coalitions with whites who ALREADY WERE ABOUT EQUALITY and forced the nation to adopt equality as the standard.

              And even years after his assassination, here we are. with a good 30% of the country still unchanged or more hardened.

              Let's not romanticize what King did. There were plenty of fire hoses and church bombings long after his soaring speeches.

              And hell, in 1972 I was bussed to a white neighborhood for school as a kindergardener. That in itself was probably the best thing that could have happened to begin to change people's attitudes and prejudices. exposure to normalcy. interaction with those we have prejudices against.

              This is the only way to fix it. Whether you're talking about civil rights for blacks, latinos, muslims or gay people. The pattern and prescription is the same.

              For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

              by mdmslle on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:16:37 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  We'll have to agree to disagree. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                mdmslle

                He did both, changing people's prejudices resulted from the legal victories, but also helped build support for the legal victories. He did all the things you suggested, no question. As part of that movement, he also had the opportunity, as a national leader, to speak to people who weren't yet with him, or maybe were only marginally on his side, or whatever, and move them along in the spectrum. Just the fact that he (and all the others in the movement) succeeded in mobilizing so many who had not previously done much if anything for Civil Rights to take a stand and get involved is what I'm talking about. The changes he wrought absolutely changed people's prejudices in the way you suggested. But the rhetoric mattered too. And if 30% of the country still unchanged, compare that to the 50% or more of whites who held to old bigotries two generations ago. No need for us to argue, we have the same goal.

            •  I didn't say people weren't "moved or influenced" (0+ / 0-)

              by others.  I said people's attitudes change only because they decide themselves to change those attitudes.  How they come to that change can be listed, invented, argued or rationalized, but it can not be imposed.  Laws are imposed; attitudes are changed by each individual, one person at a time.

              "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

              by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:12:52 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Quite right. See The Evolution of Cooperation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle

          by Robert Axelrod for specific examples of overcoming prejudices. Warning: Most of the book is about computer models of the Prisoner's Dilemma, a very simple game of cooperation and defection. The essential point for us is that the rewards of cooperation are so great that relatively small groups of cooperators can withstand intense pressure from those who act against them, and in some circumstances can spread the spirit of cooperation.

          So we need to know what those circumstances are, and work to provide them, whether in the classroom or the marketplace. See, for example, You Can't Say You Can't Play, by Vivian Gussin Paley, on requiring cooperation in kindergarten. Adam Smith's idea of the Invisible Hand is not an argument for laissez-faire. It is an argument for the level playing field. He was quite scathing about the 1%.

          Everything for ourselves, and nothing for other people, seems, in every age of the world, to have been the vile maxim of the masters of mankind.

          America—We built that!

          by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:49:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nice interactive Same Sex Marriage US map (6+ / 0-)

    As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them. John F. Kennedy

    by JaxDem on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:01:53 AM PST

  •  "Nate Silver" didn't miss NoDak, not enough polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stroszek, Ian Reifowitz

    When are these idiots going to understand, it's Nate's engine that spits out the predictions, NOT NATE? NoDak wasn't polled well and it wasn't polled late, and that adds to a smaller degree of accuracy. But it's a probability, and the 538 prediction was within the range of probability given the data.

    As far as a single guy at the HuffPo calling it -- pundits are like monkeys with typewriters, only not nearly as accurate.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:03:26 AM PST

  •  The Republicans' slow, slow road back... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, Ian Reifowitz

    ...is going to be very bumpy if they stay inside the echo chamber:

    http://tinyurl.com/...

  •  I knew minority support for Obama would be high. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stroszek, mdmslle, Ian Reifowitz, skohayes

    Regardless of the unemployment numbers.

    In fact, I thought that was a hidden strength against the unemployment numbers, because minorities have been hit particularly hard by unemployment...more than middle class or working class whites.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:06:45 AM PST

  •  Breaking Nooz.....EVERYBODY agrees.....The (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, skohayes

    Republican Brand is damaged......

    details at eleven......on Fox!!

  •  There *was* an enthusiasm gap, seriously - (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ian Reifowitz, tb mare

    - turnout was down in non-competitive states, by 5-10%. If there had been the same national turnout as 2008, the margins of Obama's victory in the national popular vote would have been equal to or greater than in 2008.

    This emphasis on the rich old white guy vote vs. the rest of America is primarily because it's primarily rich old white guys writing about it.

    Our task moving forward is to keep voters who support the progressive vision of America -- and it's a majority, and a growing one -- able to vote, engaged to vote, and voting (and to provide able candidates to reflect that vision, so voters are actually engaged in something).

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:11:01 AM PST

  •  Need to push the Conservatives past Denial (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ian Reifowitz, skohayes, tb mare

    Today is going to be like the day before and the day before that for the conservatives. They will continue to plod on thinking that they were robbed, that they should have won, and that they won't compromise with the Democrats even though they were trounced. They imagined the country loved them for all their focus on Social Issues, repeal of Obamacare, and of course Austerity for all but the 1%. I hoped to see this as a wake up call or at least an "intervention" for the GOP in power. But this "come to Jesus" moment seems to have become just another delusion for them.

    It's time we forced them into "acceptance" everyone!

    - No more of their definition of the word, Compromise.
    - No more attempts to sweet talk them into agreeing to pass a bill.

    We make our case and force them to come to terms with it.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:11:27 AM PST

  •  the highest educated (5+ / 0-)

    those with post graduate degrees, went for Obama.  Lovely.

    www.tapestryofbronze.com

    by chloris creator on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:12:35 AM PST

  •  the face of the Republican Party (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koosah, Ian Reifowitz, skohayes
    Without a makeover, a party that skews toward older, white and male voters ...
    IOW, the face of Charles Krauthammer.

    Yeesh.

  •  Runner is kinda expecting the gop to (3+ / 0-)

    struggle to determine how to change. They have so many issues. Where to start?

    They will immediately place Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in the mouthpiece positions. Policy toward immigration may temper a bit.

    Can the gop prosper with a social agenda that is being thouroughly rejected by younger voters (and older to I might add)? can the gop bring itself to cast off the christianist culture warrior clan that has been a solid part of the gop election machine for 30+ years? Clearly, the gop, in the current environment, can not continue to hate on women, latinos, blacks and gays without feeling the heat at the ballot box. My guess is that the gop leadership try to have it both ways. Keep the culture warriors but make them tone it down. It wont work.

    Next, will the gop fetish for Ayn Rand be their central economic theme? Probably. Because the guys with the money want more money. They are stuck with the underperforming gop with nowhere to go, save starting a 3rd party and bleeding even more millions.

    And what is the future of the rw noise machine? They clearly do not hold the sway of past years. Will limbaugh continue to be their de facto leader?

    Watching this play out will be facinating. But one word of caution: early reports of the gops demise have been greatly overstated. They will be back and they will not change significantly.

    •  Among the postmortems by repubs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ian Reifowitz, tb mare, askew

      I'm hearing how the repub/conservative message is going to need "re-branding"
      ...in other words, trying to sell the same old busllshit, with a happy new jingle.

    •  As I Noted In Another Comment... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai

      ...the GOP Leadership can't make the culture-war lunatics tone it down. After the Akin fiasco, they know that the leadership is all bark and no bite. If anything, they'll blame the leadership's failed attempts to push Akin aside for his defeat in the general election, thus making them even more intransigent and inclined to blow off any (empty) threats against the next candidate who strays off the reservation.

      Pass the popcorn....

      On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

      by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:27:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The people within the Republican Party (0+ / 0-)

      sufficiently motivated to grab for all of the levers of power consist mainly of four groups:

      • Those hired by the rich
      • The Religious Right
      • The Tea Parties
      • Ron Paul acolytes
      • Those who not only can't count, but consider valid statistical inference to be the Kool-Aid of the left wing Liberal conspiracy ^_^

      Michael Steele gave it a try on outreach to minorities and lost. Marco Rubio tried somewhat on immigration and lost. Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Chris Christie saw that it was hopeless, and stayed out of Presidential politics in this cycle, leaving it to the Flavor-of-the-Month crazies.

      It will be popcorn time for years to come.

      America—We built that!

      by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:09:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The majority of Americans may not buy it anymore.. (7+ / 0-)
    But then at some point, the majority of Americans stopped buying conservative bullshit. It must have been after Iraq. And Katrina. But now, conservatives can't make surrealities come true just by saying so.
    ....but the majority of Villagers still do.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:28:08 AM PST

  •  BTW the gop and the moneyed interestes have (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ian Reifowitz

    already downshifted into the next made for tv battle: the fiscal cliff.

    Unnecessary austerity and cuts to social programs. Dont look now but the minority look like they will continue to act beligerent and give no quarter to the pres.

    I say play hardball and bury the bastards. Doubt that happens, even with a 2nd term pres.

  •  One of the best things about the election results (7+ / 0-)

    (and there were many good things) was that the four-year campaign by the GOP to foment racial resentment by relentlessly slinging garbage at the President failed in the end.

    I do believe that racial divisiveness is much worse now than 2008, because the GOP has fanned the flames every day in every way in order to scare the public away from the possibility of the second term.  The large numbers who voted for Romney anyway despite his glaring failures--no clear plans, refusal to release his taxes, his Bain history, his 47% remarks, his outsize wealth, his constant lying and flip flopping, his inability to connect, his many gaffes, etc.--showed just how effective the GOPs racist campaign could be.  But in the end it wasn't enough.  And this makes me feel better about our country.

    On a side note, I believe the worst thing about Romney was his refusal to put a stop to his surrogates' racist attacks.  

    "My dear friends, your vote is precious, almost sacred. It is the most powerful nonviolent tool we have to create a more perfect union." ---Representative John Lewis

    by SottoVoce on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:36:00 AM PST

  •  re Tomasky: I knew the talk about the enthusiasm (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ian Reifowitz, skohayes, tb mare

    gap was wrong, because of who was talking about it, and how they were talking about it.
    They were able to gin up an enthusiasm gap that way in 2010 and it worked.
    The juju was gone this time.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:36:50 AM PST

  •  The pundits on MSNBC's Morning Joe (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ian Reifowitz, skohayes, tb mare

    are revealing themselves this morning. Axlerod agreed to not make Scarborough grow a moustache if he donated $10,000 to a charity for epilepsy cure. He agreed to shave his moustache off if that happened. Mika chimed in that Barnicle and Heilman chip in $5,000 each if they get to shave Axelrod's moustache off. She said she would call Donny Deutch for $10,000.

    They were throwing these amounts around like it was candy. Truly the 1%. Don't get me wrong. It is a good cause and I hope they are successful in raising the money, but the way they tossed these amounts around without batting an eye was amazing.

    There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. - Sun Tzu

    by OHeyeO on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 05:37:07 AM PST

  •  Outlaw vote suppression- prison for the crooks (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    malevola, Ian Reifowitz, stevemb, ilo, SueDe

    While it is certainly a big step in the right directions,  I cannot agree with Reifowitz's comment that Obama's re-election should serve to cement the sentiment among nonwhites that "they are indeed full members of the American community" when GOP thugs like the Governor of Florida and the SOS (Sack of Shit) of Ohio and thousands of other GOP goons continue to suppress the non-white vote in Democratic neighborhoods across the country.

    Until GOP vote suppression goons face long federal prison terms and crushing fines for deliberately attempting to suppress the vote, we still have a long way to go before we can say that all ethnic groups in America  "are indeed full members of the American community."

    Obama and the Senate Dems ought to make outlawing vote-suppression a high priority in the coming years and get to work on it right away.  Why don't we start by giving vote suppression scumbags like Governor Scott and SOS Husted one year in federal prison and a $10 million fine for every hour on average that non-white, non-rich voters are forced to stand in line to vote that exceeds the average time in line for rich white voters?  

  •  Curious (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koosah, Micheline, tb mare

    If anyone has seen data on how the military voted?

  •  WaPo may think that the Republicans (4+ / 0-)

    are contemplating a "makeover," but many Republican heavy-hitters are doing no such thing.  Conservative HQ.com, Richard Viguerie's coalition of conservative groups, held a news conference at the National Press Club yesterday blasting Romney for "not campaigning as a conservative."  Participating on the panel were Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List; Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots; Brent Bozell, Founder and President of the Media Research Center and Al Regnery, publisher of The American Spectator and founder of Regnery Publishing.

    In his opening remarks, Viguerie called for

    the removal of Republican leaders behind the epic election failure of 2012.  They should be replaced with leaders more in tune to the conservative base of the Republican party.
    In defining Republican leaders who should be removed for lack of conservative purity, Viguerie named
    RNC chairman Reince Priebus, National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and other Republican leaders behind the epic election failure of 2012.  Likewise, the establishment of the Republican consultants such as Karl Rove, Ed Gillespie, the Romney campaign senior advisor Stuart Stevens, and pollster Neil Newhouse [should] never be hired to run or consult on a national campaign again, and no one would give a dime to the effect of cyberattack such as American Crossroads...
    It's a blistering attack by the entire panel against every Republican in Washington that is not considered a darling of the tea party.

    If anyone - Democrat, Republican or otherwise - thinks these people are going to go down without a monumental fight, he better think again.  The really nasty part of the fight will go on inside the Republican party itself, and Democrats will be well advised to just stand back and watch.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:17:41 AM PST

  •  smarter electorate too (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, SueDe

    Re:  the quote from the WaPo above:  "...a party that skews toward older, white and male voters faces political peril in an increasingly diverse and complex America."

    Not only more diverse but smarter, and by that I mean less regressed, less paranoid (see Richard Hofstadter), more open to the realities of the 21st Century.  David Bromwich writing recently in the NY Review of Books had this to say about Mitt Romney and the GOP:  “It is also true that the party he represents has ceased to be a collective rational agent for working on the problems of the modern world.”  The electorate itself is slowly, slowly getting more rational.  (See also my paper, Lakoff and Frank - Looking at the Contemporary American Right.)

    •  Excellent links - thanks Bill. (0+ / 0-)

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:53:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The last Republican who represented anything (0+ / 0-)

      remotely resembling collective rational agency was the Socialist tree-hugging cut-and-run appeaser Richard Nixon, with detente with Russia, the trip to China, getting out of Vietnam, the EPA, and the failed notion of a guaranteed minimum income. Along with racism, anti-intellectualism, and paranoia. (I said he was remote.) But it has gotten steadily worse and worse. Even Reagan and the Bushes couldn't get a Republican nomination today.

      America—We built that!

      by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:28:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Even If The GOP Bosses Figure Out How To Fix It... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tb mare

    ...they won't be able to actually do anything about their immigration-hardliner problem.

    The precedent is now set: if a Republican candidate shoots off his mouth badly enough to damage the party (more than it is already), the leadership can huff and puff but they can't do a damn thing to him. Any threats they make in an attempt to enforce their demands will be completely empty, and can be ignored with impunity.

    Thank you, Todd Akin....

    On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

    by stevemb on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:52:45 AM PST

  •  Context is missing. (0+ / 0-)

    When they tabulate percentage by demographic, I wish they would include a column containing the importance of the various cohorts (i.e., Romney outperformed with those with postgraduate education, but I can't tell how important that might be without knowing how big that group is relative to the others).


    My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.—Carl Schurz
    Give 'em hell, Barry—Me

    by KingBolete on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:11:20 AM PST

  •  If the GOP invested in College education... (0+ / 0-)

    Romney may have won.   Obama is pushing for education, and the GOP been so busy blocking.   First they block Elizabeth warren and they block education.  RESULT - 4 more years :-)

  •  Michael Tomasky piece (0+ / 0-)

    Reading it makes me want to ask and then have a serious, in-depth explanation for why it is that professional media/journalists are so susceptible to conservative bs

    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

    by a gilas girl on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:28:56 AM PST

    •  Look at who pays their salaries (0+ / 0-)
      It is extremely difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
      Upton Sinclair, in I, Candidate for Governor, and How I Got Licked

      America—We built that!

      by Mokurai on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:31:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no, I don't think that (0+ / 0-)

        explains the whole of it.  

        It's also a far to easy explanation, though I understand that it does account for the narrative choices.

        I'm really talking about the point he hints at about the cultural elitism which serves to make them vulnerable to conservative mouthpieces talking from "the heartland" and other stuff.

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:00:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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