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Now we've established that people who analyze polling data might have something there, let's devise ways to compare and contrast the different models. Drew Linzer at votamatic.com already described his strategy for checking how well his model worked, and started Tweeting some of his post hoc analyses. So did Simon Jackman. As of this moment, Micah Cohen at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog says "Stay tuned." Darryl Holman is busy covering the Washington State race, but I suspect we'll see some predictive performance analysis from him soon, too.

Tonight (okay, this morning), I want to compare the predictions that three of the modelers made about the electoral vote count to show you just how awesome these guys did, but also to draw some contrasts in the results of their modeling strategy. Darryl Holman, Simon Jackman, and Sam Wang all shared the probability distribution of their final electoral vote predictions for Obama with me. Here are the three probability distributions in the same plot for what I think is the first time.

For the rest of the analysis, check out Malark-O-Meter. Fair warning, I wrote this at two in the morning. It's still quite coherent. Enjoy.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)

    Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

    by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:16:23 AM PST

  •  Please post your address and I'll mail you a dime. (0+ / 0-)

    It will be quicker.

    Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

    by Clem Yeobright on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:01:28 AM PST

    •  What does that mean? (0+ / 0-)

      It went over my head. Please explain. If it is funny, I do not want to have missed the opportunity to laugh, even if at myself.

      Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

      by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:27:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nate's priors ("state fundamentals") (0+ / 0-)

    help him to jump-start approximate estimates before there's much polling. However, they screwed up his predictions for the senate in MT and ND. Simon Jackman's aggregation techniques seems to have done better here. Dunno how the comparison goes for the presidential race, on which they seemed to agree quite closely

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:21:27 AM PST

  •  My prediction (0+ / 0-)

    By 2016 (if not sooner), Karl Rove will have his own stats guy up and running somewhere. This person will play the equivalent role that Rasmussen plays in the polling world- to show the more republican ahead than anyone else. It will also force/enable media to include Rove's person in the same sentence as their coverage of Silver's numbers:

    "Nate Silver at 538.com, rates Secretary Clinton 87 percent likely to win and to receive 356 electoral votes; but Scott Karlrovesman, from the blog 'We Hate America', rates Senator Santorum 73 percent likely to win with 303 Electoral Votes.  So as you can see, this race remains razor tight!"
    •  HA! I love it, Karlrovesman... (0+ / 0-)

      The good thing about meta-meta-analysis, however, is that it would give us a chance to question models that seem like outliers (here's looking at your, University of Colorado political scientists whose prediction was completely wrong!)

      Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

      by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:29:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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