You're starting to see a grudging but very marked and sudden chattering on the right about conceding on immigration reform. Kind of. Here's Krauthammer giving the game away:
For the party in general, however, the problem is hardly structural. It requires but a single policy change: Border fence plus amnesty. Yes, amnesty. Use the word. Shock and awe — full legal normalization (just short of citizenship) in return for full border enforcement.
I've always been of the "enforcement first" school, with the subsequent promise of legalization. I still think it's the better policy. But many Hispanics fear that there will be nothing beyond enforcement. So, promise amnesty right up front. Secure the border with guaranteed legalization to follow on the day the four border-state governors affirm that illegal immigration has slowed to a trickle.
Imagine Marco Rubio advancing such a policy on the road to 2016. It would transform the landscape. He'd win the Hispanic vote. Yes, win it. A problem fixable with a single policy initiative is not structural. It is solvable.
Watch out.
It's a trick.
The GOP offer will be "full border enforcement/fence + immigration reform but short of citizenship". That's a TRAP.
1. First, they'll put the reform part AFTER border enforcment.
2. Conditions for attainment of 'full border enforcement' will keep shifting.
3. They'll just propose legislation that doesn't cover green card holders or people in whatever new category undocmented people will fall in
4. Don't think they won't brazenly turn around and blame Obama for building a fence. A fence, a moat, armed guards....that will be hung on Obama.
5. That proposal will mean the DREAM Act will be dropped, and DREAM is more meaningful than the half-ass reform they'll propose. DREAM has full citizenship for undocmented people born in the USA. That's justice and is instantly implementable. Why is border enforcement needed for that? The DREAM act shouldn't be tied into broader immigration reform, it should be passed on its own.
We have 100% of leverage here, I hope Reid and Obama don't fold on this. This is not "raising taxes on the middle class" that the GOP can bullshit around on. The mistakes of healthcare shouldn't be repeated with the opening offer being already a compromise position shifting the final legislation further right.
The red line for progressives on this should be 'path to citizenship'.