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Who are the Republicans these days?  Not that I particularly want to find any but, as Bill Clinton would say, let's do the arithmetic.  

Ralph Reed is going around saying that the white, Evangelical turnout for Romney was the highest percentage of total Republican votes cast for any candidate. Now forget for a minute that the former Jack Abramoff toady will turn any minus into a plus regardless of the "facts." In this instance maybe he's onto something.  Dig this:

Romney got 57 million votes.  24 million were white Evangelicals.  It's estimated that there are roughly 75-78 million white Evangeicals in the United States, so if they turned out in roughly the same proportion to their overall numbers as did the entire electorate, this would total about 26 or 27 million.

So Reed didn't do a bad job.  Problem is he didn't get any help from the Romney campaign or the rest of the Republican Party in general.    But going forward, if the Republican Party can't stop the flow of Asians and Hispanics to the Democrats, could we have a Presidential election pretty soon in which more than 50% of the Republican vote is Evangelical?  Maybe they'll bring Ollie North back to head the ticket.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's a fad. It will fade. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GMFORD, OooSillyMe

    The kids will reject it shortly and the numbers will start to dwindle.

    We're fools whether we dance or not, so we might as well dance.

    by PowWowPollock on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:55:33 AM PST

  •  Evangelical Vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    News Flash for Ralph Reed: You can't count on winning national elections anymore by focusing laser-like on the AWM (Angry White Male) vote. The Republican Party has to expand its base if it wants to continue to be competitive in Washington.

  •  So what you're saying (0+ / 0-)

    is that a little under half of Romney's votes came from evangelicals, and a little over half from others. I would love to believe that the fundies were going away, but my experiences with megachurches and their demographics show that they understand their audiences quite well and are able to cater to them by splitting them off from one another at most times except the big Sunday blow out. One close to where I used to live had everything from a radio station with prayer calls for the elderly and homebound, to a 12 year school. They bussed in kids from every part of town and their racial make up was proportional to the local population, i.e. heavily minority. They had goth looking tee shirts on sale for the disaffected youth and plaques with hearts and flowers for the homemakers in their store, along with books that in no uncertain terms label both liberals and Democrats as agents of the Antichrist.
    If you want to see where they live, these maps are a pretty good clue. Scroll down to the by county maps and you can pretty well infer where both evangelicals and other Republicans live. It also shows that, if you live in a large city, no matter what the state, you might not run into either one. The suburbs and smaller cities are another matter however.
    I think that conflating Republicans with AWMs is dangerous. One would hope that people seeing Romney's constant gaffes and freudian slips would realise what a crook he is, but then again Bush II started two wars and ran the economy into the ground, so you would think no one with two warm brain cells would vote Republican. Nonetheless it is only because Democrats have been lucky to have Obama, who appeals to a wide variety of demographics including almost all minorities, and whose organisation ran a well thought out and sustained ground game, that they have been able to have the majority they did, especially outside the urban islands. If that momentum holds through the mid terms, I would be a lot more ready to believe that Democrats are working toward a long term majority.

    "There's a crack in everything; that's how the light gets in". Leonard Cohen

    by northsylvania on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 05:36:49 AM PST

    •  reply to northsylvania (0+ / 0-)

      You're right in everything you say but note this:  the Evangelical votes is no longer a rural, White, Southern vote.  It is increasingly, perhaps as much as 50% nationally, made up of Hispanics and other white minorities (Asians, Pakistanis, etc.) who see the mega-churches as part of the 'establishment.'  So while these Evangelicals aren't part of the Republican AWM galaxy, they are conservative in certain respects and yet they will vote Democratic because of immigration, etc.  Ten years ago you coulkdn't walk into an Evangelical congregation anywhere and find Democratic votes.  That's changed.

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