Skip to main content

I was just perusing pollster's breakdown of the current state of the House of Representatives in the incoming Congress, and in light of comments coming from the GOP that the elections changed nothing the results are really quite astonishing.  Yes, it's true that we currently have a Democratic president and Senate and a Republican House, and that we will continue to have those in the 113th Congress, but the contours of all those branches will be dramatically different.  We all know about the upgrade in the Senate, adding two seats to the Dem side and replacing conservative senators with substantially more progressive ones (especially my own Elizabeth Warren and Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin).  In the House, as well, our accomplishments on Tuesday, while not enough to restore the gavel to Nancy Pelosi, were nothing short of remarkable.

On the other side, details and analysis from pollster's current info...

Prior to the election, pollster identified 72 House races as "competitive," and it broke down those races as follows:

Strong Dem: 10
Lean Dem: 16
Tossup: 17
Lean GOP: 20
Strong GOP: 19

Today, all but six of those races have been decided.  Two of the undecideds were lean Dem, three were tossups, and one was lean GOP, and as of the moment, the Democratic candidate is leading in all of them.  Let's assume the Dems all hold to win, in order to assess the accuracy of pollster's predictions.

First, all the strong Dems held onto their seats, as did all the strong GOPs.  Furthermore, all of the lean Dem (including AZ-02 and AZ-09, where Dems lead as the count continues) also went, or probably will go, to the Democrats.  So far, it looks good both for the Dems and for pollster's predictions.

Surprises start to appear in the tossup category.  Including the three outstanding races where Dems lead (CA-07, CA-52, and NC-07), Dems look to take 12 of the 15 races in this category, or 80% of the tossups.  Not bad for a gerrymandered Congress!

Wonders do not cease, however, because Dems performed well even in the lean GOP category, taking five of those twenty seats (including Murphy's likely victory over West in FL-18).

If the Dems do pick up all those outstanding races, then the House of Representatives in the 113th Congress will be composed of 201 Democrats against 234 Republicans.  This is against the 112th Congress, which began with 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats and currently has 240 Republicans and 190 Democrats.

If Boehner thinks he has a mandate to oppose the people's will, he's got another think coming.  We kicked tail on Tuesday, and if they stand in our way we'll kick their tail again in 2014.  The Democratic Party is ascendant, and it's time to pass the laws our country so sorely needs -- on climate, on deficits, on entitlements, on defense, and on labor.  The Republicans will work with us, or they will watch from outside as we remake the country.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Louise, Magenta, chuck utzman, Marek, LeislerNYC, Joe Willy, hannah, nmjardine, bosdcla14, karlpk, donna in evanston, kpardue, hyperstation, Jay C, eeff, red moon dog, MarkInSanFran, expatjourno, eyeswideopen, Babsnc, wonkydonkey, Loquatrix, MillieNeon, boadicea, JJG Miami Shores, roses, itskevin, Bill Roberts, Glinda, Iberian, Cedwyn, Skipbidder, artebella, CocoaLove, sidnora, ninothemindboggler, Nag, annan, MrSandman, ranger995, wdrath, Steven Payne, defluxion10, liberte, rlharry, grrr, kismet, Wayward Wind, dkmich, Sembtex, tomjones, sebastianguy99, Gowrie Gal, davidkc, rapala, davidincleveland, kplatv, maybeeso in michigan, radarlady, SherwoodB, Blue Jean, ChemBob, reflectionsv37, Beetwasher, majcmb1, Pam from Calif, Fury, sofia, peteri2, markdd, Savvy813, turdraker, mightymouse, Alan Arizona, kathny, xaxnar, Tranny, Shirl In Idaho, flying shams, myboo, Sam the Wolfdog, Russgirl, Lefty Coaster, global citizen, StrayCat, philipmerrill, gpoutney, Rosaura, Zwoof, tommyfocus2003, OMwordTHRUdaFOG, middleagedhousewife, Statusquomustgo, sea note, Nulwee, Cronesense, offgrid, DvCM, noofsh, newpioneer, bnasley, rantsposition, Singing Lizard, gchaucer2, OIL GUY, Wreck Smurfy, christianlsv, janatallow, BasharH, homerun, sable, Empower Ink, gizmo59, JDWolverton, jwinIL14, gundyj, TX Freethinker, ScottyUrb, bythesea, elwior, alasmoses, mikeconwell, Lujane, tofumagoo, pamelabrown, Dancing Frog, carver, catly, alnep, Horsefeathers, petulans, luckylizard, Lucy Montrose, cactusflinthead, greenpunx, statsone, oldliberal, 207wickedgood, J M F, greengemini, carolyn urban, cantelow, janmtairy, EquationDoc, DefendOurConstitution, elziax, badger1968, stevenwag, sfarkash, haremoor, mahakali overdrive, orangeuglad, Larsstephens, Words In Action, Railfan, Renie57, indie17, elijah311, LaughingPlanet, NJpeach, secret38b, Orlaine, tzager, ATFILLINOIS, cordgrass, loveistheanswer, pixxer, nirbama, skillet, eclecta, science nerd, Belle Ame, Onomastic, kitkat7, I love OCD, implicate order, OhioNatureMom, lillyspad, California06, Alice Olson, Mount Baker Dem, boomerchick, zukesgirl64, badscience, smoothnmellow, SueM1121, IB JOHN, peregrine kate, VTCC73, Vatexia, Friendlystranger, cactusgal, SteelerGrrl, Sunspots, ParkRanger, Rejoinder, CuriousBoston, isabelle hayes, ahumbleopinion, pimutant, AreDeutz, Denver11, rat racer, wasatch, Hammerhand, Chaddiwicker, John Crapper, glorificus, poopdogcomedy, broths, weck, Smoh, bontemps2012, shinobi9

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site