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While I was watching returns on Tuesday I started an Excel 2010 workbook of the 113th Senate, as I was creating this workbook it occurred to me to add tables for the Senate elections of 2014, 2016 and 2018 of Republican seats to be re-elected and arrange the tables by age.  Maybe someone with demographic knowledge and skills might be interested in projecting vulnerability of Republican seats based upon demographic trends.  

For example, in 2015, 71 year-old Saxby Chambliss’ term expires and his seat will be on the ballot in 2014.  In 2012 Obama lost Georgia by 8 points.  Likewise, 76 year-old Thad Cochran’s term expires in 2015.  Obama lost Mississippi by 12 points while he lost Alabama by 22 points.  Mississippi has no virulent anti-immigrant measures like Alabama.  Mitch McConnell will be 72 in 2014 when he will be on the ballot in Kentucky.   Obama lost Kentucky by 22 but all state officials are Democrats and 2 of Kentucky’s House members are Democrats.  

The average age of current Republican Senators whose terms expire in 2015 is 67.54 while the average age of the Democrats is 63.15.  Interestingly, the difference between average age of all Democratic and Republican senators in the 113th Congress is less than 7 months, Democrats 61.70 and Republicans 61.07.

I’m uploading this workbook hoping another liberal will do some demographic work to identify winnable Senate seats in 2014, 2016 and 2018 currently held by Republicans.

Notes: The worksheet named “Senate 113th Congress” has some hidden cells that are identified on the worksheet named “Columns - Senate 113th Congress.”   In calculating the age of each Senator I used Excel’s TODAY() function so that the age column will always be current.  The Years of Service is calculated based upon a user entered “Years of Service End Date:”  I entered 2013-Apr-03.  That is why each Senator-elect has .25 Years of Service.  You may change Years of Service date.

I have created a table named “Rank by Seniority” where I have deleted the Senators who are not returning and assigned the currently returning Senators their new Rank by Seniority.  Next, I calculated the Rank by Seniority for the freshmen class of 2015 using the factor stated below.

Former Senator (descending by years of service; State Population *)
Former U.S. representative (descending by years of service; State Population *)
Former governor (descending by years of service; State Population *)
No factor    *State Population in descending order based upon the 2010 Census

No cells are locked and the workbook has no password protection.

I have never posted before and do know know how to upload a file. Or, even if, a user can upload a file.  If you reply could you include instructions for uploading files.  If files cannot be uploaded, I will e-Mail you the workbook upon request.

Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 6:07 AM PT: Click on the link below to access the workbook (spreadsheet) Note: The functions COUNTIFS and SUMIFS do not seem to be supoorted but I believe they are downloadable.

https://docs.google.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  While the Senate is important.............. (8+ / 0-)

    we need to immediately identify those house seats that we have a reasonable chance of picking off in 2014.

    How many house seats in districts that voted for BHO (blue) have Rethug Reps?  

    How many in districts where he came close (purple)?  

    Finally, we need to concentrate on picking-off the Tehadists where ever they are.

    The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation--HDT

    by cazcee on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:50:35 PM PST

  •  Thanks for your efforts, DT. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, CS11, ParkRanger

    Any more Senate pickups will be gravy, and I like gravy.

    "I believe more women should carry guns. I believe armed women will make the world a better place. Women need to come to think of themselves not as victims but as dangerous." Anna Pigeon

    by glorificus on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:54:21 PM PST

  •  Some nominees for retirement ? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    glorificus

    16 oldest senators currently serving.   It sure would be nice to get a younger generation.   We need the best we can get.   Senators over age 70 are less than inspiring overall.

    Wikipedia

    Age, D/R, State and Name of Senators

    88  D-NJ Lautenberg
    88  D-HA Inouye
    88  D-HA Akaka
    80  R-IN Lugar
    79  D-CA Feinstein
    79  R-IA Grassley
    78  R-UT Hatch
    78  R-AL Shelby
    78  D-MI Levin
    77  D-OK  Inhofe
    77  D-WI Kohl
    76  R-KS Roberts
    76  D-MD Mikulski
    76  R-AZ McCain
    75  D-WV Rockefeller
    74  R-MS Cochran

    •  You can take three off this list (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, lzmd, CS11, glorificus

      Akaka and Kohl retired this cycle, and were succeeded by fellow Democrats Mazie Hirono and Tammy Baldwin.  Even sweeter, Dick Lugar was primaried by Richard Mourdock, who then lost to Joe Donnelly.
      Looking forward, it's probably time for Lautenberg and Inouye to retire--88 is too old, and both Hawaii and New Jersey have a strong Democratic bench.  Most of the remainder are in very safe seats one way or the other, so,I don't think it makes much difference one way or another.  NJ and MD are opportunities to get some much needed diversity in the Senate, with Cory Booker and Donna Edwards as strong candidates waiting in the wings.  On the other hand, I hope Jay Rockefeller will be around a long time, because West Virginia would be a very tough open seat to defend.

    •  Inhofe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      glorificus

      is Republican, of course ...

      And I certainly hope he retires in 2014 -- he's been the leading voice against action on climate change for several years now.

      Oklahoma probably has a number of like-minded people ready to replace him though.

      Inouye has said he will run again.  Appropriations chair is too powerful a post to give up easily.

      Mikulski could go ... 25 years in the Senate and has never chaired a committee.

      "Our society will not be great until every young mind is set free" - Lyndon Johnson

      by Michael Vykun on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:26:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm not a fan of ageism. If a person is doing a (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, dskoe, CS11, wilderness voice

    good job, I don't care about their age young or elder.

    That said, we DO need to look at who's who for 2014 and see where we can pick up seats. I'm all in on that.

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:43:07 PM PST

    •  Disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wilderness voice, cany

      Not so much about ageism, but about the strategic practicality of it. I would prefer Lautenberg retire, on the grounds that if he did die then Christie would get to appoint a replacement. I don't so much care about Inouye, Feinstein, Mikulski or Rockefeller - in fact, I hope Rockfeller stays for five more terms, because West Virginia would probably be competitive if a decently-talented Republican campaigner went up against any non-Manchin figure.

      NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

      by realnrh on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:29:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You do have a point there. But that could happen (0+ / 0-)

        to anyone. No one knows when tragedy will strike, as we are all to aware in the case of Giffords.

        I just don't like ageism.

        202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

        by cany on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:33:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Did you rank (0+ / 0-)

    King ahead of Kaine?  8 years as Governor as opposed to 4?  Or does it go by state population, so Virginia precedes Maine?

    "Our society will not be great until every young mind is set free" - Lyndon Johnson

    by Michael Vykun on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:22:16 PM PST

  •  Lamar Alexander of Tennnessee (0+ / 0-)

    ...might be convinced not to run for 're-election if a well financed barrage of negative publicity were directed toward him early on. His career been a lie covering up a life of scandal.
    Perhaps he could be persuaded to avoid the ugliness and  give former Democrat  Gov Phil Bredeson an opening.

    Isn't it discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit? (Noel Coward)

    by Mid10Dem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:27:48 PM PST

  •  Working with House seats, any Freshman congress (0+ / 0-)

    person should be on immediate notice they won't be in Washinigton DC long if they aren't seeking out and leading the cause to work with Democrats to solve problems. Words, alone, won't do it.  Be prepared to write, e-mai, phone---doing whatever necessary to let these Freshmen know from day ONE what will be needed if they have any vision of remaining in office.

  •  post the file as a Google Doc, public access (0+ / 0-)

    Go to http://www.docs.google.com , select Create, drop-down to Spreadsheet.

    From the new spreadsheet, select File --> Import --> Choose File to select it from your hard drive.

    To make it publicly accessible, from the top right select Share -> Change (who has access) --> Public on the web (or Anyone with the link -- this might be better, to help keep away vandals) --> Save

    Update your diary to include the link to the Google Doc you just created.

    It saves versions as you go, and maintains a trail of old versions so you can revert back.

    ---

    Btw, there's a typo in your title, the second 2014 should be 2018.

  •  We have to fight in the South. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lzmd

    We need to return to a 50 state strategy, and your post highlights this. We can't just sit back and wait for demographics to sort out our problems.

    Two polls of note I'd point to, though I can't remember the pollster.

    In interviews of white, southern males, it was discovered that a significant majority of them favour two democratic ideas (which they did not know were democratic ideas).

    One, that the wealthy should pay their share in taxes and that they currently do not. The South should have been carpetbombed with Romney's 'I think it's fair that I pay only 14%'.

    Two, that corporate money in politics is NOT a good thing, and something needs to be done about it.

    If those aren't open invitations to expand the board in order to expand our hold on the Senate and retake the House, then nothing EVER will be.

  •  Ashley Judd for Turtle's Seat!!! (0+ / 0-)

    That should give him a run for his money. She can fundraise using her wealthy connections and use her sister/mom for rallies.

    Romney = Nixon without the sweating problem

    by YoungArizonaLiberal on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 05:32:07 PM PST

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