While I was watching returns on Tuesday I started an Excel 2010 workbook of the 113th Senate, as I was creating this workbook it occurred to me to add tables for the Senate elections of 2014, 2016 and 2018 of Republican seats to be re-elected and arrange the tables by age. Maybe someone with demographic knowledge and skills might be interested in projecting vulnerability of Republican seats based upon demographic trends.
For example, in 2015, 71 year-old Saxby Chambliss’ term expires and his seat will be on the ballot in 2014. In 2012 Obama lost Georgia by 8 points. Likewise, 76 year-old Thad Cochran’s term expires in 2015. Obama lost Mississippi by 12 points while he lost Alabama by 22 points. Mississippi has no virulent anti-immigrant measures like Alabama. Mitch McConnell will be 72 in 2014 when he will be on the ballot in Kentucky. Obama lost Kentucky by 22 but all state officials are Democrats and 2 of Kentucky’s House members are Democrats.
The average age of current Republican Senators whose terms expire in 2015 is 67.54 while the average age of the Democrats is 63.15. Interestingly, the difference between average age of all Democratic and Republican senators in the 113th Congress is less than 7 months, Democrats 61.70 and Republicans 61.07.
I’m uploading this workbook hoping another liberal will do some demographic work to identify winnable Senate seats in 2014, 2016 and 2018 currently held by Republicans.
Notes: The worksheet named “Senate 113th Congress” has some hidden cells that are identified on the worksheet named “Columns - Senate 113th Congress.” In calculating the age of each Senator I used Excel’s TODAY() function so that the age column will always be current. The Years of Service is calculated based upon a user entered “Years of Service End Date:” I entered 2013-Apr-03. That is why each Senator-elect has .25 Years of Service. You may change Years of Service date.
I have created a table named “Rank by Seniority” where I have deleted the Senators who are not returning and assigned the currently returning Senators their new Rank by Seniority. Next, I calculated the Rank by Seniority for the freshmen class of 2015 using the factor stated below.
Former Senator (descending by years of service; State Population *)
Former U.S. representative (descending by years of service; State Population *)
Former governor (descending by years of service; State Population *)
No factor *State Population in descending order based upon the 2010 Census
No cells are locked and the workbook has no password protection.
I have never posted before and do know know how to upload a file. Or, even if, a user can upload a file. If you reply could you include instructions for uploading files. If files cannot be uploaded, I will e-Mail you the workbook upon request.