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In the Fix, Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post describes the daunting task facing the Tea Bagging Republican Party: the electoral history past, present, and future haunts the Grand Old Party

In the past six presidential elections, including 2012, the Democratic nominee has averaged 327 electoral votes while the Republican nominee has averaged just 210. (A candidate needs 270, a simple majority of the total of 538 electoral votes, to be elected.)
In addition, of course, Democratic Presidential candidates have won the popular vote in five of the last six elections: Clinton (1992, 1996), Gore (2000), and Obama (2008, 2012). Of course, the popular vote is merely the swimsuit competition, but the trend merits consideration.

More below the fold

Cilizza continues by indicating that the past twenty years has been dominated by Democratic electoral politics and is the yang to the previous twenty years of Republican yin.

During those two-plus decades dating back to 1992, the most — repeat most — electoral votes a Republican presidential candidate has won is 286, when George W. Bush claimed a second term in 2004. In that same time frame, Democratic nominees have received more than 300 electoral votes four times: Barack Obama in 2008 (365) and 2012 (332) and Bill Clinton in 1992 (370) and 1996 (379). The lowest total for a Democratic nominee during that period was Sen. John Kerry’s 251 electoral votes in 2004; Republicans’ floor during that same period was 159 electoral votes in 1996.

That Democratic electoral-vote dominance is the mirror image of the huge edge Republicans enjoyed in the six elections prior to 1992. From 1968 to 1988, Republican presidential nominees averaged a whopping 417 electoral votes per election while Democrats managed just 113. The most electoral votes a Democratic nominee won was 297, when Jimmy Carter claimed the presidency in 1976. Ronald Reagan, in beating Carter four years later, rolled up 489 electoral votes — and followed that up with a 525-electoral-vote victory in 1984. From 1968 to 1988, Democrats never broke 300 electoral votes, while Republicans broke that barrier five times: 1968 (301), 1972 (530), 1980 (489), 1984 (525) and 1988 (426).

Rather than seeing redistricting and gerrymandering as an overwhelming problem, I see the 2010 census and redistricting as a challenge that can serve to reshape the political terrain for the next decade.

Remember, in 1990, Pennsylvania Republicans redistricted the state to significantly change the party alignment of the state's Congressional delegation.  However, by the end of the decade, Democrats had whomped the Republicans and dominated the state's Congressional delegation.

Similarly, I see that by continuing the gains made by OFA and its allies in voter registration and turnout, we have a similar opportunity to rise like a Phoenix from redistricting ashes and to maintain the current trend in the electoral college.

As Obama and the Congressional Democrats take the lead on the economic recovery, immigration reform, progressive social values and policies for women, gays and lesbians, and ethnic and cultural minorities, we can and will swing not only Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina into the progressive Democratic camp, but we can also convert Arizona and Texas.  

In conjunction with the delfowering of the Republican Party (aka, the de-Tea Bagging of the GOP), the Democratic Party will dominate until the next census.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Cilizza must have (11+ / 0-)

    done a lot of reading of sane political analysts because he has produced bullshite through the entire campaign season.  The man is a moran and worthy of a post at the laughable WaPo.

    " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

    by gchaucer2 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:44:49 PM PST

    •  Like I was saying in another diary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The BIGGEST problem for Republicans is that there are 19 states that have voted for the Democratic candidate in 5 straight elections (that is 20 YEARS worth of Democratic votes). They equal up to 242 electoral votes. Think about that. Dems only need 28 EV's EVERY election for the forseeable future.

      "I don't want a line in the Sand lines can be moved. They can be blown away. I want a six foot trench carved into granite."

      by theone718 on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:03:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Here's my idea, since I'm not buying the wholesale (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sebastianguy99, MikePhoenix

    argument of taking the house back even by 2016:

    Find close red-to-blue races near you, even if in a different district and county, and get involved. Perhaps that might be the case in the next Gov. race in your state, as well.

    I have MY sites set on CA-31. It's a blue district w/a red congressbagger in San Bernardino County (I am in OC and there's literally NO chance of getting my congressman out any time soon, I am afraid).

    There is NO reason this should stay in the hands of the GOP.

    If we all spread out to winnable districts to capture/recapture these close contests, we can make a difference in 2014.

    AND, for activists like us, we would have a smaller field to fund.

    I'm not convinced turning the house any time soon is at all possible but if you have other ideas or are more optimistic about it, I'm all ears.

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:52:01 PM PST

  •  Yeah, like now he realizes all of this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Pundits are now busy trying to do a bit of CYA because they help mislead the public about the true status of the race throughout the entire cycle.

    Cilizza was too happy to go around talking about President Obama's " supposed problems. To me, he is little better than Gergen who believes Obama needs to play more golf with D.C. insiders. It never crossed his mind, or that of Cilizza's that he was elected in large part because was no of D.C.

    All one needs to do is read the electoral map and see which party is the one that needs to adjust.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:30:16 PM PST

  •  yet...the last 20 years Democrats have done (0+ / 0-)

    nothing to act as though they have been winning...their primary goal was to see how much they could act like Republicans...and stack the courts...

    I wonder if the President and Reid will get up enough courage to actually complete some court appointments?

    "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - Melissa Harris Perry

    by justmy2 on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:35:51 AM PST

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