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Most of us here are well aware of the Right Wing Bubble and its destructive effects on the Republican Party.  Im here to warn about the dangers of our own bubble forming.  Yes the President won and yes it was a mandate.  Yes we picked up seats in the Senate.  But it was close.  Too close and we got a lot of help from our opponents.  

We cant afford to let our joy of winning become our own echo chamber of greatness.

Today I'll look at the Presidential Election.  For the purpose of this analysis I am using the results from CNN as of 12 Nov.

The overall popular vote is roughly 62 million for the President vs 58.7 million for Romney.  When California and other states finally finish counting I expect the margin to be 4-5 million with the total votes cast somewhere around 124 million.  That last number is significant because in 2008 128 million cast votes.  Since the population of the nation did not decline that means 4-5 million people who could vote and likely did vote in 2008 skipped in 2012.  Thats a lot of votes both candidates left on the table.

Looking at the battle ground states the difference between being President and being sad was 500,000 votes:

Ohio - 18 EV

Barack Obama  - 2,697,260

Mitt Romney  - 2,593,779

104K vote difference

Florida - 29 EV

Barack Obama  - 4,236,032

Mitt Romney  - 4,162,174

74K vote Difference     -----  178K votes, 47 EV

Pennsylvania - 20 EV

Barack Obama  - 2,907,048

Mitt Romney  - 2,619,583

288K vote difference     -----  466K votes, 67 EV

466K votes or about 10% of the "missing" electorate and we are facing 4 years of Romney.

Going the other way, the President lost North Carolina and its 15 EVs by 97K.  The only other state where the President was even close was Georgia (15 EVs) where he lost by 310K.  As a side note those are 30 EVs we need to go after in 2016.  Winning those would take Ohio, Colorado and Iowa off the "must win" list.

President Obama significantly expanded the map for Democrats from the Gore and Kerry elections but the gap between success and failure is small.

President Obama is a great candidate with an even better campaign staff.  Always a good starting point.  But he is also one of the luckiest politicians ever.  His opponents seem to have an uncanny knack of self destruction.  

McCain was a gift opponent even before he selected Palin.  He started out as the grumpy old man of the GOP and once he picked Palin he looked like he might have lost his marbles.  If I were running for President and I was given the option of picking my opponents running mate, a Palin would be at the top of my list.  Its not like winning Alaska was going to tip the election and even the most cursory vetting would have shown she was a lose cannon.  

Romney/Ryan was more of the same.  Less than 4 years after Wall Street almost destroyed the economy getting to run against the poster child for "vulture capitalism" is just too good.  Getting video of the same guy calling almost half the electorate lazy moochers right after he picked the poster child for "screw you" government as his running mate?  Really?  Can anyone be that lucky?  The entire Romney/Ryan campaign was amateur hour compared to the Obama machine right down to the last day when "Project ORCA" kneecapped an already dismal GOTV operation.  

Much has been made of Romney not receiving as many votes as McCain but lets not fool ourselves - Obama 2008 kicked Obama 2012's butt by 5-6 million votes.  In 2016 Democrats will need to grow their raw numbers by 10-15% just to get back to winning the same percentage of the overall electorate as they did in 2008.  We cant afford to spend even one day in a happy place thinking we have a new Electoral majority.  

Tomorrow the Senate.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (17+ / 0-)

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:07:48 AM PST

  •  Good thoughts (9+ / 0-)

    The most dangerous meme bouncing around in our bubble at the moment is that the GOP are a spent force.

    •  I agree with you (4+ / 0-)

      The GOP still runs most of the states governorships and state legislatures...which control the election machinery and how Congressional districts are drawn up.  It's going to be very difficult re-shaping the Congressional House membership.  We need to come out in force in 2014 to regain some influence in the States and gain more influence in Congress.  

      I believe the GOP has harden their stance.  Any gains made by the Progressives at the national level will be impeded at the State level...

      Oracle2021: Reality according to Mitt Romney "Why tell the truth when a lie will suffice...the bigger the lie the bigger the pay off"

      by Oracle2021 on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 11:33:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats do their best when they are pessimistic (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kevin k, grayday101, ksuwildkat

    Democrats do their best when they are pessimistic.  It causes them to over-prepare, over-achieve, and overkill the opposition.  

    I am not writing this to put Democrats down.  I am writing this because I believe liberals and Democrats should put themselves in the mindset of being fearful.   So long as Democrats do not fall from fear to actual despair, fear should help Democrats win.

    Example: After President Obama did so poorly in the Denver debate, he won the next two debates.

    Example: When it was clear that Ohio and Florida Republicans were trying to suppress minority voters, Ohio and Florida Democrats went out of the way to motivate people to vote Democrat.

    •  not necessarily. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ksuwildkat, renbear, Larsstephens

      Fear can produce paralysis.

      The appropriate emotions for motivation vary from one person to the next.

      IMHO nothing encourages victory like the feeling of victory, but that's just me.

      We got the future back.

      by G2geek on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:42:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  When have the Dems been paralyzed? (0+ / 0-)

        They don't seem to go into catatonia when they're afraid.  They organize.

        •  depends on the person. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          renbear, Larsstephens

          You see the ones who organize.  But what you don't see are the ones who've gone catatonic.   Per diarist, it's what you don't see that's potentially most interesting.

          Meanwhile, per diarist, we have 5 million missing votes to figure out: what made those people stay home?  I have to wonder, how many of those were rendered catatonic as compared to dissatisfied in some particular way?   The important part is the emotional narrative: what were they feeling that made them stay home?  

          We got the future back.

          by G2geek on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 11:04:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  2010 (0+ / 0-)

          But maybe the problem there is that not enough people were afraid.

          All things in the sky are pure to those who have no telescopes. – Charles Fort

          by subtropolis on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:09:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Untrue. Expand the vote by winning and positivity (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      subtropolis, renbear, Larsstephens

      You want to know why Obama won?
      He was positive, kept pushing for inclusivity and realized that the voting populace could be increased by bringing those unlikely voters out of the shadows.

      We win when we vote.  Policy is one thing, Inspiration/Vision is another, but it all comes down to GOTV.

      Being pessimistic is not useful.  Being realistic is.  Reality says that you need several cycles to get wins in areas.  My favorite story is the 3x candidate that finally knocks off the powerful incumbent (see: Bera vs. Lungren).  Persistence needed to sustain a multi-cycle view requires a positive outlook.

      I think OFA knew this back in 2008 - even in the primary cycle. Focused on what mattered - running up the score in red states.

      We need to do that again. 50 State strategy + retail politics = WIN.

      --
      Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

      by sacrelicious on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 11:18:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fear is a powerful motivator (0+ / 0-)

      But we need to fight fear with hope.  People want to be led and they prefer the carrot to the stick.

      It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

      by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:46:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No. Not all Democrats. (0+ / 0-)

      There have been some good diaries on the topic. Please be aware that only SOME of us respond well to pessimism. Some of us respond much, MUCH better to optimism-- the feeling that the fight is winnable, and is in fact going our way.

      ... there is always an easy solution to every problem -- neat, plausible and wrong. - H. L. Mencken

      by renbear on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 05:14:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well There Was Significant Vote Suppression This (4+ / 0-)

    year so let's grant some of the turnout drop to shutout.

    Ohio for example threw thousands of registered voters onto provisional ballots through a variety of suppression tricks and redistricting, polling place changes and such. We can't start counting those some 300,000 till the weekend.

    But I'm with your larger point. There's virtually nothing about the Republican campaign that was not substandard. The candidates hurt them, the long nomination race hurt them, their donors hurt them, their surrogates hurt them, their ad war hurt them, their polling sources hurt them, their voters hurt them, the weather hurt them, their policies in every sphere hurt them.

    You have to think that it would only have taken 2-3 improvements, which would still have left it probably the most inept campaign in modern history, and they'd have won.

    So by 2016 we have 2% more latinos. It's hard to see what about society gets better for the Democrats other than that. Meanwhile the Republicans only need to repair to par just a few of dozens of ineptitudes from this year and they're fully back in the game.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:28:31 AM PST

    •  --Oh and What Happens to the Legendary Obama/OFA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      turnout machine for 2014 and especially 2016? Does it carry on, get handed off, or does it go away?

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:30:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  David Plouffe has said it goes away... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        Not because Obama refuses to leave it to his successors but because each candidate has to build his own in order for it to work.

        I imagine that future candidates of both parties will look to this and try to emulate it.  Republicans would like to replicate it, but they'd have to hold their noses doing it.  Can't get too close to the unwashed masses, you see...

        •  Watch for Romney to be back and why not, (0+ / 0-)

          he's got all the name recognition now and knows where his weaknesses are and to what extent he can hide or trample the truth.

          Romney/Palin 2016 - The Smirk and the Wink.

          GAWWWD I hope I'm wrong.

          Vote Tea Party Taliban! Bring the Burqa to America.

          by Pescadero Bill on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 10:34:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  In place thru mid-terms, (0+ / 0-)

        would be my guess.  Trimmed down, but ready to gear up again for 2014.

        I do worry about 2016, but there are so many people who grew up and learned their craft in the 2008 and 2012 campaigns--and saw what happens when you let down in 2010--that I think the next few cycles are going to be very exciting.

    •  Worry about 2014 first. (0+ / 0-)

      Tell me how we get OFA and the superPACs to focus fire TODAY on the unapologetic GOP soldiers of the tea party?

      We need covering fire - we know how they will vote- let's craft messaging accusing them before the fact so it's clear to the voting populace.

      --
      Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

      by sacrelicious on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 11:20:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Its unlikely Dems will get into a bubble like... (3+ / 0-)

    Repubs simply because there is so little liberal media and so very, very much conservative media these days.  Not just news channels like Fox and CNN, but talk radio, newspapers and blogs.

    But the point is well taken and the fact that Thurston Howell IV was able to win a majority of white males was unsettling.  

    The Dems can't rest on their past victories.  They have got to find how to reach a majority of whites while expanding the numbers with women and Hispanics if they want to keep on winning.

    Tax and Spend I can understand. I can even understand Borrow and Spend. But Borrow and give Billionaires tax cuts? That I have a problem with.

    by LiberalCanuck on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:34:04 AM PST

  •  GREAT POST (7+ / 0-)

    The biggest indication I have seen of the Progressive bubble is the notion that we can jettison our Blue Dogs.   We may not want them, but we damn well need them.  We need that (slightly) blue voice active in the South, and the difference between a Blue Dog and a Tea Partier in congress is a pretty big difference indeed.

    Minority rights should never be subject to majority vote.

    by lostboyjim on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:35:33 AM PST

    •  yeah, this needs to be Rec listed. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      Diarist knows what he's talking about, and knows how to analyze difficult problems in depth.  For which reason we need to pay attention to this.

      And your point is a good one also: we need the pesky Blue Dogs for now.  

      To which I would add, the way to replace Blue Dogs is by changing the cultures in the states that elected them.

      The culture change comes first, and then it is reflected in the political change.  

      We got the future back.

      by G2geek on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:44:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree it's a great post, but the "Blue Dogs" can (0+ / 0-)

      start their own party and leave the Democrat party. That would thin out the Republicans much more than the Democrats.
      I believe they belong right there with Joe Lieberman, another turncoat.

      "If you tell the truth, you won't have to remember anything", Mark Twain

      by Cruzankenny on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:46:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What we need is a three party system. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cruzankenny

        The extremist Tea Party, the Progressive Democratic Party, and the haggard and weak-kneed Centrist Party made up of the fence-sitting pragmatic stragglers from the republican and democratic parties.

        I believe that would give the Progressive Democratic Party all the advantage as the Tea Party would be way too radical for most Americans and the Centrist Party would be incapable of committing to any one platform or confidently backing any one candidate.

        Vote Tea Party Taliban! Bring the Burqa to America.

        by Pescadero Bill on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 10:42:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't even think blue dogs are a bad idea (0+ / 0-)

      Why should the GOP have all the fiscal conservatives? Particularly when their so-called "fiscal conservatives" come with all that Neanderthal baggage.

      Having a few people on our side to remind us that the public does think a well kept budget is desirable... well that's not entirely a bad thing.

      Think of Blue Dogs as a way to attract people willing to dip a toe in the water. Then, when their fears of desiccation into Kenyan Muslim Atheist Obamunism are done,  they can take the whole swim!

      Rick Perry - the greatest scientist since Galileo!

      by Bobs Telecaster on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:59:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agree on Blue Dogs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      To me Blue Dogs are our Canaries in the Coal Mine.  If they are too happy, we have gone too far to the right.  If they leave, we have gone too far to the left.  Look at the Kansas Republicans who saw their party turn crazy and became Democrats.  If we see Blue Dogs suddenly switching parties, we need to do a systems check to make sure we have not gone off the deep end.  

      The GOP likes to talk big tent but they dont practice it.  We need to practice many tents.

      Im a church going, gun owning, military officer white guy.  I also happen to be pro-choice, pro-marriage equality and pro-green.  Democrats need to make sure that we are not turning people away just because they dont fit the "perfect Democrat" description (atheist gay vegan mixed latino/asian community organizer with a wind farm and zero carbon footprint??).

      Having said that, guys like Lieberman are not Blue Dogs, just assholes.

      It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

      by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:10:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  In the bigger picture, tho, both were (3+ / 0-)

    by far the most formidable of any of the candidates the GOP managed to round up for the primaries . . ..

    McCain was a gift opponent even before he selected Palin.  He started out as the grumpy old man of the GOP and once he picked Palin he looked like he might have lost his marbles.  If I were running for President and I was given the option of picking my opponents running mate, a Palin would be at the top of my list.  Its not like winning Alaska was going to tip the election and even the most cursory vetting would have shown she was a lose cannon.  

    Romney/Ryan was more of the same.  

    Really think they are going to, or even can, do better next time around?
    •  I hope not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Roadbed Guy

      I think they are going to go even further right but what happens if they find their own version of Bill Clinton?

      Personally I think Palin will give it another shot as will both Portman and Santorum.  If we are really lucky Huckabee and Ryan will run too.  Would love to see the 5 of them trying to out whackjob eachother.

      It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

      by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:14:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, they tried that in 2000 with George W Bush (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ksuwildkat

        and the whole likeable "compassionate conservative" schtick.

        But not sure if that will work again now that we're on to it.

        I'm thinking if the economy bounces back, there's no way any reputable Repub (yeah, do any exist?) is going to want to touch the 2016 GOP presidential nomination with the proverbial 10 foot pole.

        Leaving it firmly in the realm of the RW nutters.

        If the economy continues to flounder, however, all bets are off - I suspect that the "low information" voters' patience will have run thin by then.

        •  The Anti-Clinton (0+ / 0-)

          Somehow I dont think we are going to see President Bush the Younger at the RNC any time soon.  Of course it took a full cycle before we really brought Big Dog back so time will tell.  

          Funny now that I think about it , outside of Reagan Republicans dont really have any past Presidents or even candidates that they like having around.  Compare that to the DNC in Charlotte where we had Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter (video) and John Kerry.  You had better believe Hillary would have had a keynote if she had been in a different job.  

          It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

          by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:58:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  He won (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pescadero Bill, GWinkler

    And yes, pitched battles in the swing states that OFA won by scratching and biting, basically, is how the electoral college win was pulled off.

    But don't forget the popular vote difference was significant. We have a mandate - and that's no bubble.

    Rick Perry - the greatest scientist since Galileo!

    by Bobs Telecaster on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 09:55:57 AM PST

  •  I disagree with this post (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pescadero Bill, GWinkler, ksuwildkat

    It sounds like a Republican talking point. This was a resounding victory. When a team wins the Superbowl by say only 5 points no one says we should practice in fear for the next one. Comparing 2012 to 2008 is useless because the President WON. Taking a we only won by 332 electoral votes this time instead of 365 mindset into negotiations is basically giving up before you begin. I will not operate in fear it leads to destruction. We all need to get behind the President and  email or call to let him know that we are behind him and we don't want status quo as the Republicans are pushing.

  •  seeking the missing 5 mil. (3+ / 0-)

    Your points about voter turnout are vital.  In the end, that's what wins and loses.  And you're spot-on about the "negative signal" of 5 million voters staying home.  BTW did you read the stuff about ORCA, Romney's field IT system that was a total fail?  Oh the schadenfreude!;-) and more lessons learned.  (Have you thought about teaching general method to folks here?  Ways of thinking about problems, ways of analyzing data, that kind of stuff?)

    Yo, everyone!  Ksuwildcat knows how to think outside the box about difficult problems, and this is a key example.  While we're counting the voters who voted, he spotted the item about "negative votes" or the absence of votes compared to 2012.  That's "the dog that didn't bark," and it's the key to the kingdom here.  

    Five million is a significant difference by any statistical test you want to apply.  Where did those five million voters go, if not to the voting booth?  This is a question we need to answer and deal with next time.  As in, 2014, and it's never too early to start.  We need to figure out out what de-motivated them and what it's going to take to get them energized.  

    We should start working our way through hypotheses about the missing five million until we find one that fits.

    ----

    I'm going to guess that some of them, maybe as many as half, are people who are sufficiently to the left that they were demotivated by Obama's relative moderation.  That's a safe guess since we see it on DK regularly.  Another chunk, perhaps the other half, could be religious righties who couldn't bring themselves to vote for an LDS candidate ("Mormons aren't Christian" etc.).  

    And I'm also going to guess that one of the keys to winning both groups will be to shift the "religion in America" discussion over toward the religious left or religious progressives generally.  

    I'll make this case further in a subsequent diary on this topic.  The brief version is that religious progressives, with a message that includes economic populism, can pick up disaffected religious conservatives, and that this will deflate the religious right's numbers sufficiently to enable putting other progressive items on the agenda that will pick up disaffected lefties.  There is an emotional narrative here too: in 2008 it was "Fear vs. Hope," and in 2014 and 2016 it could be "Fear vs. Love."

    Though, there's another potential issue on the horizon, which I refer to as "the plutocracy's new racial strategy," about which more some other time.  

    We got the future back.

    by G2geek on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 10:50:53 AM PST

    •  how much ofthat 5 million fewer people... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ksuwildkat

      ...are in New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and Connecticut?

      we KNOW turnout was down there due to Sandy.

      I doubt it's all of it, but It had to be a significant fraction.

      We have no desire to offend you -- unless you are a twit!

      by ScrewySquirrel on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 12:17:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  true but.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        that doesnt change the narrow gaps in those battleground states.  

        We got 332 this time.  Lets say we work our butts off and next time we pick up Georgia and NC.  Thats 362.  Big Dog got 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996.  President Obama wasnt within 10 points of one of the worst candidates in history in any other red state (Missouri was 9.6% - rounded to 10%).  Realistically 362 may be our new glass ceiling.  

        Look at this chart from Nate Silver

        http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

        If you cut off our "safe" states at Wisconsin we have 227EVs.

        If you cut Republicans at Georgia they have 175.  Thats a nice cushion but one that falls away quickly.

        Florida - 29 EVs
        Pennsylvania  - 20 EVs
        Ohio - 18 EVs
        North Carolina - 15 EVs
        Virginia - 13 EVs

        Thats the 95 Republicans need to win.  Had Team R-Money been smart they would have gone after those 5 states and nothing else.  Suck it up and admit being wrong about the auto bailout and he might have won Ohio.  Name Santorum VP and he might win Penn.  Now you just have to win Florida and Virginia by hook or crook - with an emphasis on crook.

        We cant sit back and look at our current Electoral map and think we are sitting pretty.  

        It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

        by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:45:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Many people purposely stayed out (0+ / 0-)

      Progressives, Christians and Republicans that adds up to a big number. I saw this happening before the election it is not a revelation.

    •  About 4 million coming from AZ and CA alone (0+ / 0-)

      As I mentioned elsewhere, the ballot count is not yet finished.  The current vote tally is about 121 million.  As of the end of business last Friday, the number of uncounted ballots in just California and Arizona stood at nearly 4 million.  Another ~600k uncounted ballots remain in Ohio and Washington, and you figure thousands of other ballots remain scattered throughout other states.  Plus, New Jersey kept voting open by e-mail until Friday.  

      Since today's Veteran's Day, I doubt that most of the vote tallies will be updated again until tomorrow.  

  •  You are missing something here... (0+ / 0-)

    Obama should not have won the election. The economy is still bloody awful. If you are seeking those missing votes from 2008, the state of the economy largely explains it. Add the fact that many of Obama's base voters were/are unhappy about how he and the Dems have performed. The Dems always manage to suppress their base to some degree by not delivering what was expected. That is natural. It is a testament to Obama and the Democratic machine they essentially blew up the opposition.

  •  House races in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

    Too many people sat back in 2010 and allowed the Republicans to walk away with a House majority. There was no way that Obama could have turned around the economic mess that had been left him by 2010, and so it was an easy job for the Republicans to hang that on him. But it didn't have to be that way. There was no pushback. So frustrating!

    Please, let's all focus on getting rid of these obstructionist assholes in the House, beginning now.

    All things in the sky are pure to those who have no telescopes. – Charles Fort

    by subtropolis on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:08:33 PM PST

  •  So many factors (0+ / 0-)

    Population shifts, population changes, enthusiasm, weather, voter suppression ...

    And of course the 2012 figures are not final yet.  But:

    Ohio

    Obama  '12 - 2,697,260
    Obama '08 - 2,940,044

    Romney '12 - 2,593,779
    McCain '08 - 2,677,820

    Turnout is down for both candidates.

    Florida

    Obama '12 - 4,236,032
    Obama '08 - 4.282,074

    Romney '12  - 4,162,174
    McCain '08 - 4,045,624

    Turnout overall is up!  Despite intense voter suppression in FL.

    Pennsylvania

    Obama '12 - 2,907,048
    Obama '08 - 3,276,363

    Romney '12 - 2,619,583
    McCain '08 - 2,655,885

    Overall turnout is down.

    I really expected more people to vote this year. Total vote in 2008 was something like 131 million, with a turnout ratio of 57%.  I knew turnout would be down this year -- 2008 was exceptional -- but I still expected population growth to get us up over 131 million.

    "Our society will not be great until every young mind is set free" - Lyndon Johnson

    by Michael Vykun on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:04:57 PM PST

  •  The vote tally is NOT COMPLETE! (0+ / 0-)

    Still too early for post-mortems if you're using the current ballot count as a measure.  Millions of votes have not yet been recorded, so it's very premature to draw conclusions about the turnout.  

    The California Secretary of State's latest countshows 3.3 million unprocessed ballots remaining -- mostly mail-in and provisional ballots.  In addition, Arizona has more than a half million left to count, and other states, including Ohio and Florida, also have thousands of mail-in and provisional ballots left to count.  

    These ballots certainly won't swing the balance of power at the national level, but it does leave some congressional, state legislative, and initiative races yet to be decided.  

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

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