Nailed it!
According to the Atlantic's Rebecca Greenfield, there were only three pundits, out of 74 she tracked, who called the 2012 Electoral College correctly—Nate Silver, Drew Linzer, and me.

I was happy enough to be in that rarified air, but then I read this:

In the meantime, even Silver may need to tip his cap to someone who seems to have done an even better job at prognosticating the final presidential election results. In a blog post today, dailyKos founder Markos Moulitsas noted that he had predicted exactly the final Electoral College vote totals and reported an average margin in the swing states that was less than Silver's or that of any aggregator. Moulitsas' methodology? A savvy but seemingly manual reading of last-minute pre-election polls.
Hmmm. Could that really be true? I decided to check the math. Here's a chart with my predictions, as well as those of Nate and Lizner (a professor at Emory). I then calculated the average margin of error:

All three of us came in crazy accurate, with a margin of error under two points. But it's true, I did edge out Nate by a hair, with Lizner just a touch behind Nate (though the professor didn't venture a number on the national popular vote). In six of these predictions I came under a single point. Both Nate and Lizner managed that in three.

A couple of things can be gleaned from these results:

1) Math-based prognostication is superior to the old-school way of talking about gut feelings, or vibrations, or outright dishonest hackery.

All three of us used data to arrive at our conclusions. The difference between them and me? They were wedded to their algorithmic and automatic models, but my model is manual, allowing me the freedom to evaluate each piece of data on its merits and separate the wheat from the chaff, while mixing in early vote performance to further refine my calls.

So for example, I leaned heavily on registered voter models. When African Americans, Latinos, and young voters turned out in early voting, I knew the polls saying they wouldn't show were wrong.

2. Two of the three top prognosticators have ties to Daily Kos. Don't think that it's a coincidence that some of the best political prognosticators are products of this site (and of the community that embraces them). It's not just me and Nate (aka Poblano) —Princeton's Sam Wang was tantalizingly close with his model, and he's a Daily Kos oldtimer (UID 10459). Can you tell that we love our data, and that this is a central hub for the data-driven reality based community?

I can't think of a bigger difference between our side and theirs: While they constructed an elaborate alternate reality to get them through the election, we stuck to the facts. That was easy this year, not so easy in 2010. We'll see in 2014, but I'm hoping to further bolster our data analysis offerings. I might even be able to convince Sam Wang/Mindgeek to be a big part of those plans.

3. Daily Kos served you well in 2012. Heck, we always serve you well. But 2012 was a particularly good year for us. All my happy, confident talk over the summer and even after the first debate? It wasn't bullshit. It wasn't spin. It was the facts based on the available data. That's why we didn't run around like panicked chickens like MSNBC or Andrew Sullivan after the first debate. That's why I celebrated diarists like MattTX, who dug into early vote totals and other available data and furthered a Daily Kos analytical tradition.

No one delivered as comprehensive a polling wrap-up as Steve Singiser. I still haven't figured out how he ferreted out many of those polls. And the Daily Kos Elections team delivered (and still does) the best roundup of downballot races, as well as broader electoral analysis (like fundraising reports or district presidential performance). For those of you who caught my election night liveblogging, you might've seen me leaning heavily on David Jarman's benchmark county projections. They were the reason I was able to call Florida and North Carolina for their respective victors long before the networks did. They were spot on.

Of course, we raised an amazing \$3.4 million for Democratic campaigns this cycle. And Jed Lewison's "Mitt Debates Himself" video wasn't just one of the most viral this campaign cycle—its 2.2 million views on YouTube outpaced anything produced by the Romney campaign itself—but it came at a critical time as Romney was trying to Etch A Sketch himself into a moderate.

Brooklynbadboy wonders why Daily Kos doesn't get respect from the political class. The answer is two-fold: Establishment media assume that all partisan media are full of hacks like Dick Morris, and they still can't stomach us usurpers horning in on their territory. Quite similar to how old world baseball scouts resented the sabermetricians like Bill James (what the book and movie Moneyball were all about).

I don't know if that will ever change, but I can live with it as long as you guys get that this site provided the best, most accurate, and most predictive data of any political media outlet in the country, bar none.

You guys can keep supporting the great work Daily Kos does, and the great work it will do, by donating to the site. Thanks for everything!

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Socialist fuckstick'sAmerica's best prognosticator(146+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
confitesprit, ericlewis0, political mutt, SneakySnu, niteskolar, ontheleftcoast, weck, skralyx, BlueJessamine, burnt out, beach babe in fl, Steveningen, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, Torta, skillet, blue aardvark, citizenx, GrumpyOldGeek, here4tehbeer, rigcath, davidincleveland, TomP, mconvente, jardin32, Samer, betson08, implicate order, Cinnamon, ljb, Thinking Fella, m00finsan, dog in va, Front Toward Enemy, cartwrightdale, pat of butter in a sea of grits, Railfan, lineatus, TrueBlueMajority, Lefty Coaster, angry marmot, norm, christomento, ExStr8, skrekk, Ian S, sunbro, txdemfem, highacidity, Gowrie Gal, puakev, ranger995, lisajones, weelzup, zerelda, LilithGardener, flycaster, MuskokaGord, wader, avsp, flumptytail, Nulwee, WI Deadhead, ogre, S F Hippie, tampaedski, Aunt Martha, david mizner, cosette, KellyB, Lilith, dejavu, leonard145b, cka, Actbriniel, nellgwen, Suzanne 3, mapamp, clone12, Debby, cwsmoke, sfbob, MKinTN, LearningCurve, tinfoilhat, glorificus, cocinero, ichibon, al23, jrooth, tomephil, Quilldriver, Sandino, Joieau, Tea and Strumpets, TKO333, bronte17, renbear, Dissentinator, MadGeorgiaDem, muddy boots, Ishmaelbychoice, YankInUK, La Gitane, spooks51, marleycat, J M F, Senor Unoball, Patrick2415, cherish0708, eeff, dreamweaver1, antirove, terabytes, nomccain, Shippo1776, TrueBlueDem, Mistral Wind, kalihikane, IreGyre, LeftyAce, Libby Shaw, Rolfyboy6, Hedwig, jwinIL14, dewtx, Mr MadAsHell, Aunt Pat, lotlizard, madhaus, bobdevo, MySobriquet, Rick Aucoin, Pithy Cherub, Vicky, Involuntary Exile, splashy, mungley, TheLawnRanger, high uintas, belle1, cany, AreDeutz, Larsstephens, Smoh, Caddis Fly, TexDem

Congrats Kos.

look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

• ##### They're not ignoring you....(13+ / 0-)

It's just that giving you credit would do too much harm to their "reputations."

There is always room for McCain, Graham, and Dancin Dave on Sunday talk.  Rachel gets on grudgingly and when she does, winds up embarassing everyone else because she asks questions based on facts and not spin, and counters spin with facts.

But you have to ask why these shows almost never seem to have any space for some proven pros including Kos and Josh Marshall especially.

It's because doing so, would further show up the Village Mentality and all it does to favor those with wealth and power.

Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Left-wing activists now wield a double-edged sword(7+ / 0-)

--and both sides (energy/accuracy) have a positive sharpness that traditional media can't AFFORD to include in their profit-driven (nee 'horserace') mix.

Thanks Markos. Thanks for keeping the keel even for ALL of us!

You're a good man. An even better pollster!

jw1

“If you realized how powerful your thoughts are, you would never think a negative thought.” --Peace Pilgrim

[ Parent ]

• ##### I have been constantly(11+ / 0-)

amazed at your ability to project winners, based on numbers but also the instincts that let you 'pull it out of  you know where' and be right.

Congratulations on being the best of the best in this go round.

• ##### That's what I'm talking about(23+ / 0-)

Could this be the tipping point? To send us back to, you know, math? Congrats on the accuracy and to being a part of piercing that Republibubble.

• ##### Karl Rove, in the past, has sneered(13+ / 0-)

at the "Reality-based Community".  Well, if the reality-based community is eating his lunch and out-performing him, he may as well hang it up!

-4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

[ Parent ]

• ##### The prognostication was a triumph of reality over(5+ / 0-)

delusional thinking. (Great work, Kos!) And the election was a triumph of good over evil. Rove is on the wrong side of both.

I believe that in every country the people themselves are more peaceably and liberally inclined than their governments. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yeah, but Rove took home a fortune(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Blue Knight, sunbro

How does that work?

If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

[ Parent ]

• ##### You get a really gullible group (conservatives),(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sunbro

and hit them up for \$\$\$.

I believe that in every country the people themselves are more peaceably and liberally inclined than their governments. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

[ Parent ]

• ##### It's the political equivalent of the(8+ / 0-)

Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker empire.

"And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

[ Parent ]

• ##### are the superrich more gullible?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
txdoubledd, sunbro

hard to say. the sample size is so small.

• ##### Hard to believe.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sunbro

How can they have become billionaires if they are so easily parted from their money?

If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

[ Parent ]

• ##### Similarly, how can a man become a general(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

when his penis is so easily compromised?

;-)

-4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

[ Parent ]

• ##### Kos laps the field(36+ / 0-)

Kos was our Sanity Clause. Well done Markos. Your site and associations have made you one of the worlds greatest assets.

God Bless the Daily Kos and Markos Moulitsas.

• ##### The tent is Growing Kos :).(21+ / 0-)

Howard Dean will always be my president.

• ##### Congratulations.(7+ / 0-)

And not the least surprised at the final analysis.

• ##### There's something said for being right er correct.(7+ / 0-)

I'm not sure why others don't try it more often.

There can be no protection locally if we're content to ignore the fact that there are no controls globally.

• ##### They dont suffer when they are wrong . . (5+ / 0-)

Even when they call it wrong over and over again, that's why they don't even try to go with the facts.

• ##### Absolutely--there's no penalty for error, in fact(0+ / 0-)

...pundits are rewarded for being interesting or provocative. This often means being wrong in an attention-catching way.

There are actually perverse incentives that encourage one to be wrong or at least not worry about accuracy.

Rush Limbaugh's college Composition teacher said he could never get Rush to concern himself about providing evidence to support an argument. But who is making more money, Rush or his teacher?

• ##### Worried about one possible implication(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
DeathDlr73, burnt out, lurkersince03

What happens next time when DailyKos or 538 forecasts a narrow Dem win?

Since the pros have showed they can nail it with polling science, do marginal voters then decide they don't have to bother with turning out?

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

• ##### All the more reason to keep up GOTV efforts.(21+ / 0-)

2014 is not far off, and keeping people motivated for change is of great importance.

"The less time you have, the more you need to use it wisely." - Cpt. Avatar, Starblazers

[ Parent ]

• ##### Without the GOTV efforts of so many here(32+ / 0-)

and across the country, kos and Nate would have been, no doubt accurately, predicting a Republican win.

GOTV is what makes the numbers happen, not the other way around.

I'm looking forward to keeping up that GOTV effort so we finish taking back the House and increase our Democratic majority in the Senate in 2014.  After all, 2013 is just 47 days away.

Good times.  :)

"Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

[ Parent ]

• ##### 2014(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State

I would hope that in the next couple of weeks that "Kos" and others would come up with a list of Congressional districits to target for 2014.  That would give all of us an opportunity in our own states to really familiarize ourselves with the district(s), the demographics, cities within them and seek out really qualified people to run for them.  We would then be able to put them on the ground starting with voter lists, contacts for each precinct in the district, media contacts and start raising the money now a few \$ a month for a large seed fund.

We can win 2014 if we start now with the districts and have candidates in place by February 2013.

I would love to get rid of Lamar Smith in Texas for example but we need the research to see if this district is a good prospect.  I bet every large state has at least 2 districts that could be targeted.

• ##### 120 million (26+ / 0-)

voters sit around on Daily Kos and on Nate's NYT blog trying to decide whether they need to vote?

Voters will turn out, or they won't, irrelevant of the media chatter. All the Romney cheerleading and alternate-reality creating efforts of the Right didn't do shit for them on Election Day.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Sorry, Mr. Kos, Sir, But Your Comment IMHO is (0+ / 0-)

a reductio ad absurdum argument.  OF COURSE 120 M voters don't let the pundits decide whether they "need to vote."
But my own behavior (especially involving GOTV) might -- if I look at it honestly -- be affected by predictions from reputable sources.  I'm not proud of this, but it's true.

And I think it's an important enough question that I just wrote a diary "I Didn't Vote 'Cause Kos Said We'd Win" and posted it, with a poll to try to parse out how much predictions can affect voting and GOTV. (Warning:  Shameless but possibly apropos Diary Pimping follows)

Self-Pimped Diary Here

If you and Nate and Drew had said that Obama, and all the down-ticket races that I support were 99% likely to win, how hard would I have worked to make that happen?

I'm not sure.  That's why I think this topic bears further discussion.

I still think that you are one of the most amazing phenomenons of the internet age.  But that doesn't mean you are always right!

With Sincere Appreciation,
Lurker Since '03

"So, Pal, now tell me: What did YOU do to help the least among your people?" "Well, ummm, Mr. God, Sir..."

[ Parent ]

• ##### If Nate had forecasted only a 57.8% probability(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
highacidity, spooks51, lurkersince03

of a Democratic victory, OMG I think we would all work even harder to get out the vote.

You're right, though, that if he (and Sam Wang) had just stated which side of the coin would land face up on Nov 6, and if they told us "congratulations! Dems will win!" then that would be one thing.  And yes, it could backfire slightly and cause some at-ease passivity where a fighting spirit is needed.  But his model provides odds at any given point in time.  I for one was very nervous when Obama's victory odds in Silver's model dipped below 70%.  Seemed far too close for comfort!

• ##### Does social science support your hypothesis(5+ / 0-)

that a sense of impending victory stifles the impulse of marginal voters to get to the polls?

Isn't it also possible that more such voters will turn out to be part of a winning coalition?

Agree with DeathDlr73 that in any case the answer is to keep pushing to GOTV.

• ##### I would love an answer to that(5+ / 0-)

excellent question, Deus Ex Machina.

A reality-based one.

Apathy is always a factor ("We're already winning, my vote won't matter")...

...but the desire to be on the winning team is a powerful social impetus, too.

I'd love to hear from someone who actually studied this with - like, you know - science.

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

[ Parent ]

• ##### It's called(12+ / 0-)

the bandwagon effect.

I saw it  on this site. When we were obviously winning, traffic was up. After the first debate, traffic went down.

I see it at my SB Nation sites. When a team is winning, traffic skyrockets. When it sucks, it crashes.

People like to be part of a winning effort. So the notion that being a winning team will lose support is patently absurd.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Nice to know.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Jyrki

Says something good about human nature and the momentum vs apathy question.

Thanks!

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

[ Parent ]

• ##### Some "Facts" May Indicate Otherwise(0+ / 0-)

Again, sorry to disagree.
But if you look at the poll on my

diary on this subject today

Of the 36 respondents:

If the polling indicated a 99% chance of success:
8%      "Would vote, but nothing (i.e. GOTV) else"
22%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
55%     "Would vote, GOTV, everything I'd do if we were losing"

If the polling indicated a 95% chance of success:
2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
and
If the polling indicated a 90% chance of success:
2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"

Well, we'd lose 8% of potential GOTV'ers.  Not too bad. But Remember:  These are Kossacks who are involved enough to read an admittedly minor-league diary and take the poll.  Even amongst ourselves, a significant percentage say that they would slack off on GOTV to some extent if the polls looked really good. What would this poll look like, if Dem voters with "an average level of interest and commitment" took it?

"So, Pal, now tell me: What did YOU do to help the least among your people?" "Well, ummm, Mr. God, Sir..."

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yeah, I'll pretend I came here for the math...(27+ / 0-)

Actually, I just really love this deeply connected, intelligent, activist community.  It's kept me around for 8 years.

But I suppose the election prediction accuracy is a good reason to trust this place.  :D

• ##### In an age of right wing spin where "facts" are....(14+ / 0-)

whatever the loudest talking head says they are...

it is a relief to still find a place where data driven ideas are presented, defended and proven.

A well deserved pat on the back to you Kos.  Keep telling them the truth; they will think its hell.

Tax and Spend I can understand. I can even understand Borrow and Spend. But Borrow and give Billionaires tax cuts? That I have a problem with.

• ##### I am so glad I joined this site this past June.(13+ / 0-)

Where the hell was I the last 7 years or so?

Lost in the effing wilderness!

This site made me appear to a rational, reasoned, man of vision, as I repeated the polling logic I heard here to others, and it made sense.  The only things I heard in Romney's favor were mainstream polls that called it a tie or called Romney's momentum; and a few suppporters at work telling me they just knew Romney would win because they could feel the vibrations.

Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Tear Ayn, the GOP, and Fox News new orifices; laugh and enjoy. @floydbluealdus1

• ##### Congrats! to math and dkos!(7+ / 0-)

-You want to change the system, run for office.

• ##### asdf(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
blue aardvark, burnt out, spooks51

Very impressive, Kos! Congrats!

But I have one question - why did you omit Sam Wang?

He missed only Florida but he got ALL 10 'tied' Senate races correct!! :D :D

I say the four of you form a consortium and put Gallup out of business - permanently! :D

• ##### Congrats(13+ / 0-)

Very happy for you and proud of you!

You amaze me.

Mwah!

"the Devil made me buy this dress!" Flip Wilson as Geraldine Jones

• ##### Congratulations ...(5+ / 0-)

Best I had was "It's not tied, I've seen the Battleground polls, Obama's gonna win!"

Avoiding Theocracy at Home and Neo Cons Abroad

• ##### Clearly Reality has a Liberal Bias.(10+ / 0-)

This is proof that conservatives are right because...

Or so I gather.  Seems to be how they judge winners.

/snark

I don't blame Christians. I blame Stupid. Which sadly is a much more popular religion these days.

• ##### Joe Scarborough comes to mind(4+ / 0-)

Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

[ Parent ]

• ##### isn't Joe supposed to be growing a moustache?(3+ / 0-)
Instead of growing facial hair, Scarborough committed to donating \$10,000 to epilepsy research and wearing a fake mustache while singing a  Freddy Fender song at an epilepsy fundraiser. (He refused to wear the mustache on air.)
Hmf.

\$10,000 to settle a bet? Where have I heard that number before?

It's nice to be rich.

• ##### Dayum!(19+ / 0-)

This should produce some really interesting hate mail for the roundup ....

And you do realize this makes you gayer than Nate, right?

Still enjoying my stimulus package.

• ##### More accurate than Nate Silver...(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
burnt out, highacidity, Suzanne 3, dougymi

Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.

Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Tear Ayn, the GOP, and Fox News new orifices; laugh and enjoy. @floydbluealdus1

• ##### Will there now be a new twitter meme:(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
antirove, BalanceSeeker

#drunkmarkos?

(Not as funny to outsiders, I guess.)

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

[ Parent ]

• ##### The Romney Campaign JUST bought that hashtag!(4+ / 0-)

Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Tear Ayn, the GOP, and Fox News new orifices; laugh and enjoy. @floydbluealdus1

[ Parent ]

• ##### Actually I thought of the Lone Ranger "Silllver!"(0+ / 0-)

Then I thought, wow better than the Lone Ranger......:)  !!!!

• ##### Congrats! media pundits blah, but political class(15+ / 0-)

is also lawmakers and activists, and they RESPECT DK!

Been doing blogathons and projects at DK for number of years, and there are  4 interconnected reasons we get such hot guests: DK has great rep, traffic stats, our projects are great and best online progressive/liberal community!

media don't like math, heck they have shown that with climate change, and economic issues (clarified by Bill Clinton) and now GOP house choosing science committee chair where all 3 don't believe in science.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Mohandas K. Gandhi

• ##### Final Margin in OH yet to be determined(6+ / 0-)

325K ballots to be counted yet, expect Obama's margin to grow there.

• ##### Since(6+ / 0-)

all of us overstated Obama's current level of support, any change in the vote there won't impact our relative standings. But I'd be happy with a smaller overall margin of error!

The national popular vote will also shift before all's said and done.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Is there a chance(0+ / 0-)

the popular vote percentages will grow as well?

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

[ Parent ]

• ##### Not a chance(6+ / 0-)

... a certainty.

[ Parent ]

• ##### (Happy dance)! n/t(0+ / 0-)

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

[ Parent ]

• ##### Commie Bustards besting Silverbacks....Dogs and(6+ / 0-)

cats living together.....It's the end of the world I tells ya!!

• ##### Reality is overrated(6+ / 0-)

Daily Kos goes beyond!

Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

• ##### Dunno......Erick Erickson only missed by.....(4+ / 0-)

THIS MUCH!!

• ##### If you can hold your fingers that far apart(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
glorificus, nellgwen, antirove

you've got hellaciously big hands.

Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

[ Parent ]

• ##### Admit it kos(24+ / 0-)

you just went around the country counting yard signs.

Congratulations kos.

• ##### big up!(5+ / 0-)

This comment is dedicated to my mellow Adept2U and his Uncle Marcus

• ##### Serious question(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
foresterbob, dougymi, nellgwen

Why is this kos fellow not on TV all the time? (or at all as far as I can find).

• ##### Not to burst your bubble, but(7+ / 0-)

the right way to do this is to take the sum of the squares of the differences, normalize them and take the square root.  If you do that the resulting RSS deviation is:

Markos:  1.75
Nate:   1.72
Lizner:  1.77

which is still damn impressive.  Ohio killed you.

By the way, Lizner is really the winner because his number is the square root of Pi to within 0.01%.  :-)

Certainly from our standpoint, this gives us a sense of momentum -- when the United States has accolades tossed its way, rather than shoes. - PJ Crowley

• ##### Ohio ain't done.(5+ / 0-)

There will be a significant shift D-ward when the 300k provisionals get counted. So Kos may well win the rms contest too.

Michael Weissman UID 197542

[ Parent ]

• ##### Incidentally, what was Dick Morris' Avg. error?(12+ / 0-)

A sideways eight?

• ##### Morris will need...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen

all of his fingers and toes to count that high.

Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

[ Parent ]

• ##### morris did finish 'best in class'(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
angry marmot, Mogolori

his class being 'ultimate dip shit'

• ##### We not only get this, it is why we are here.(7+ / 0-)
I can live with it as long as you guys get that this site provided the best, most accurate, and most predictive data of any political media outlet in the country, bar none.
Congratulations on your brilliant creation, Markos, and on having the talent to attract stellar staff. It has been an honor and a privilege to call myself a member of your site for the past (nearly) 8 years.

Of course I'm talking about more than superb data accuracy. That real-world accuracy is a direct function of everything else you've made possible by creating this site, which three long diaries couldn't fully enumerate.

Enough fossil fuel remains on Earth to warm it 6 degrees C by 2100 AD if it is all used. A +6 C planet will only sustain half a billion humans. Human population will rise to 9 billion by 2050. Any questions?

• ##### Thank you, kos(4+ / 0-)

For your site and for the article, thank you.  :)

• ##### We used math, they used spelling.(4+ / 0-)

No wonder they failed.

Texas is just trying to trick Mexico into building the dang fence.

• ##### Congratulations. I'm really happy for you & dkos.(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
rexymeteorite, foresterbob, nellgwen

Quite an accomplishment - hope the recognition isn't far behind.

If money is speech, then speech must be money.

• ##### very impressive(5+ / 0-)

Glad to know I am but a small part of this reality and fact based community.

You did us proud dude!

• ##### And, by extension, I am now a political genius.(9+ / 0-)

Yes, the flaming red GOP of the family circle have started called me again. We had had one of those round-the-table dinner bets in late summer on who would win the election. I was the only one who said Obama. How did I KNOW this, they ask? I told them I read a lot of stuff, but the best is DailyKos. They couldn't believe my source was "that liberal kid". I said: "Heh. The nation belongs to the young. Just find yourself a smart one and do what he does."

"It does not require many words to speak the truth." -- Chief Joseph, native American leader (1840-1904)

• ##### So are You, Drew, and Nate...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
foresterbob, nellgwen

...going to join the same fantasy BBL next year?  I think it would make for an amazing contest!

I don't know about Drew, but I'm pretty sure you and Nate share a love for baseball sabremetrics and such.

• ##### now(8+ / 0-)

can you please resolve the bcs b.s.?

The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

• ##### by "resolve" I assume you mean "blow up?" eom(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Laurence Lewis, MKinTN
• ##### You know, there ought to be a law. nt(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Laurence Lewis

Yo.

[ Parent ]

• ##### if the ducks can get healthy(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bryduck

they'll prove those bcs computers as accurate as gallup. they might anyway...

The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

[ Parent ]

• ##### From your lips to the gods'(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Laurence Lewis

ears, but having this banged-up (to put it mildly) a D is scaring me to no end for Stanford, let alone the CW on the road if we make it past them. We've been this close before only to have something go horribly wrong. (See: Dennis Dixon and 5 RBs a few years back . . .)

"Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

[ Parent ]

• ##### and with a banged up secondary(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bryduck

a second round with usc could be dicey. but as long as the offense scores at will...

this weekend will reveal a lot.

The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

[ Parent ]

• ##### The O can be stopped(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Laurence Lewis

(although it will take more than what the Pac-12 has to offer--if Stanford can't do it), but usually only from weeks' worth of prep. If our D can't stop a normal O, that spells trouble. I don't think USC will get their act together enough to beat the Bruins; they have a history of folding when the chips are down, and Lane Kiffin is not the most inspirational leader, I'd say.

"Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

[ Parent ]

• ##### stanford's defense is as good as anyone's(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bryduck

the sec is overrated- they all look great because sec offenses are so pedestrian, but texas a & m really exposed alabama, last week. i'd have loved to have seen the ducks play 'bama.

stanford has a solid offense, and they play smash mouth, which plays right to the ducks' current injury problems. but if the ducks still run up a good score, it will answer a lot of questions.

usc can be great one week and terrible the next, but the same is true of ucla. will be an interesting game, but i'd rather the ducks play a 2-loss ucla team. beating three straight ranked teams would lock the ducks in to the bcs top spot, and i think the ducks' offense would be a hot knife through butter, against k state.

The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

[ Parent ]

• ##### +1000 on SEC overrating.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Laurence Lewis

I wasn't referring to non-Pac12 D quality, necessarily, but their "qualities", if you will--they are usually bigger than most at the same speed under normal circumstances. (Against Ohio State and Auburn--and Wisky to a lesser extent) the O struggled to maintain any consistency until much later in the game than they need to be wholly effective. If we can score early, we'll be ok, but if not--especially if Stanford goes up by a score or two--we could get ground down and lose the clock before we're able to wear their D out. Having them at home should be a huge benefit, but I thought that about USC last year, too.
"We." Because I play and/or coach for them, of course.
; )

"Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

[ Parent ]

• ##### Have you called the Syrian civil war yet?(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, Mogolori, exotrip

How about Greece leaving the Euro?  We need to get less provincial in our prognosticating.

You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

• ##### or how about some football games n/t(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, Rich in PA
• ##### I can do that.(0+ / 0-)

But I think you would be skeptical of my methods.
I have none.
I'm kinda psychic.

"Is that your vegetarian leather jacket?" George Harrison

[ Parent ]

• ##### I actually tipped this diary(3+ / 0-)

Which is a little telling Wilt Chamberlain he can score a little.  But well deserved, in this case.

Ancora Impara--Michelangelo

• ##### Congrats to Markos!(5+ / 0-)

Long live the Great Orange Satan!

"I come close to despair because so many of the pieces of the country are broken, and when you see that, you have two choices: You can give up, or you can do something about it." Elizabeth Warren

• ##### Fuck Nate Silver.(11+ / 0-)

What does he know?

By the way, kos, why did you respond to Dylan Byer's email?

I saw Nate last week and asked him when he was going to respond to Byers request for an interview, and Nate said, "Why would I respond to that so-called fucking reporter?"

• ##### Will Hollywood miss out on pie fights, mousetits,(3+ / 0-)

bannings, reinstatements, the untold heroic sagas of edscan, George, and so many other colorful figures to put Kos in his place?  Or the many 'Front Pagers' and 'boots-on-the-ground' stories by our many thousands of people working on causes that benefit the 99% fraction of our people progressively and proactively?  If you ask me (which you didn't) I think Kos's story may have that "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" or "Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde" sort of potential...maybe "Mr. Kos Goes Legally Red, White and Orange?"  Clearly, I'm no Hollywood writer, but there's a really great story to tell here...if we can just come up with a catchy title.  Regardless, Kos is now a veteran of political war and the battlefield. Both very confusing and full of smoke and traps and anyone keeping their head straight in this messy morass, while taking many hits, is a hero in my book--hmm...now I just need those movie rights...

When life gives you wingnuts, make wingnut butter!

[ Parent ]

• ##### That's pretty awesome.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State
• ##### Well obviously(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Lilith, nellgwen

kos was intimately engaged in the voter fraud, so he knew exactly what was going to happen.

VALIDATE MY FUCKING ELECTION!!!

matthewborgard.com ~ @MatthewBorgard

• ##### My addiction to this site came about . . .(12+ / 0-)

when I realized that every time I saw an interesting story in NYT or NPR I realized -- wait, I already saw that - two days ago -- on Daily Kos.

• ##### Now Kos will be insufferable through 2014. Sigh.(4+ / 0-)

Ought to be a blast.  But I'm skeptical about DK5. :)

Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
—Spike Milligan

• ##### Congrats kos(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State
• ##### So tell me again why Erik Erickson has a gig @ CNN(11+ / 0-)

... and you're banned from MSNBC?

• ##### He lives within commuting distance(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Bob Johnson, dougymi, Mogolori

• ##### And it looks like your national margin prediction (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Mo, nellgwen

is getting better by the day... Obama is now up to a 2.8 margin and it still has plenty of room to go and get closer to 3.5 as California ballots continue to be counted and the provisional ballots from across the nation start getting counted.

The one problem with Nate's margin predictor is that he had too many Republican-leaning polls in his mix, which muddied up the picture.  He did seem to do a good job of weighting the polls, though.

"A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

• ##### Oooh... new material for the Hate Mail :~) n/t(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
IB JOHN, nellgwen

Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

• ##### Conservative friend says this site lies(5+ / 0-)

He was then dumbfounded when Obama won. Seriously dumbfounded.

I tried to explain that we like to link to things - not just say what our gut tells us.

Instead he opted for the conservative bubbleverse (or echo chamber). Kept telling me Romney would win in a landslide.

In the end I pointed out that math wins. 2+2=4 and your gut is really, really bad at predictive modeling.

Republicans fear the US turning into Greece want to implement austerity measures... like Greece.

• ##### thanks again kos(5+ / 0-)

you talked me down off the ledge countless times this election cycle when i thought all hope was lost.

i literally do not know what I would do without Big Orange!

THANK YOU

"Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
Four More Years! How sweet it is!!!

• ##### Orange and blue are(3+ / 0-)

complimentary colors.

"Is that your vegetarian leather jacket?" George Harrison

[ Parent ]

• ##### Amen, TBM(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
TrueBlueMajority

Amen    :)

"Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

[ Parent ]

• ##### You should now do a weekly prediction post(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen

on various topics.

karnak kos

• ##### On election night, I barely watched television, (3+ / 0-)

having gotten rid of cable tv programming a year ago.  With an antenna, I can get a local Fox station, and a local ABC affiliate.  And 3 bible-thumping stations.

I spent most of my time here, and on one of the network websites.  But I have to admit that I snuck a peek at Fox after the election was called for Obama.

Thanks to kos and the rest of the gang here, for your outstanding work!

• ##### I barely watched the debates.(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
tinfoilhat, foresterbob

Too nervous. But I followed (to the extent I dared watch) the drama here. The second debate I didn't watch until the rerun later in the evening. Once I learned here that it was safe for my heart.....

Occasionally during Packer games I have to iron. I'll even iron sheets during a tight game -- and listen to the broadcast coming from another room.....

• ##### Most our-side projections were "conservative"(5+ / 0-)

Looking across all three analysts in the table, there were quite a few more underestimates of Democratic performance than over-estimates.

No epistemic closure there. :-)

The question in my mind is why? The estimates and the methodology are absolutely outstanding. Ideally, the errors should be more randomly distributed.

I can think of 2 possible reasons:

1. All three analysts were very just slightly over-cautious. Deep down, they couldn't bring themselves to go as far out on a limb as they really felt they could. That may be less true for Nate and Lizner, but even there, they made choices about weighting pollsters and adjusting systematic bias that introduced some subjectivity.

2. The awesome Obama GOTV is even more awesome than our analysts knew. If so, this needs to be expanded upon and baked into all future Democratic election efforts.

Or a combination of the two?

Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

• ##### a lot of us were very worried(8+ / 0-)

the media was pushing "ITS TIED!!!" narrative really hard this cycle, and I can't speak for everyone else, but I felt like I was maybe beginning to live in a bubble like the conservatives do. It gives me a lot of comfort that we really did have the facts on our side.

• ##### heard that...but the one thing as a total novice(0+ / 0-)

that I learned here was to pull Ras and Gallup out of any kind of aggregate.  Just by doing that alone, my cursory math helped me regain some sanity and gave me real hope.

"Okay, fine...fer sure, fer sure"

[ Parent ]

• ##### It's because(8+ / 0-)

the data was skewed Red. Remember, all three of us leaned heavily on the polling numbers. If the polls had been wrong, all three of us would've been wrong.

I strayed from the polling composite in several places (OH, NV, IA). In all three states I expected Obama to do better based on outside factors (early vote and new voter registrations). I was right in two of them, NV and IA, and had my biggest miss in the other, OH.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Kos, its not a criticism .. all were awesome(4+ / 0-)

"the data was skewed Red" . Thanks, that clicked.

I guess my real question is how do we measure the effects of GOTV efforts in real time?

An effective GOTV seems to be worth about 1 to 2 points.  The underlying formal polling methodologies didn't capture it. You subjectively added some of that back in from the early voting and registration.

That is the part of the vote that is potentially controllable at the immediate, micro level. Having a real-time performance measure would be a powerful motivational tool for GOTV workers. Not just "we've registered 200,000 new voters so far", but "we have already gained 1.1% in the polls and there is another potential 3% still out there".

In the past, that would have been a hard statement to defend. But the collective performance of you, Nate, etc. make me think that this level of precision may not be out of reach.

Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

[ Parent ]

• ##### That I would love to see (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
side pocket

Thank you!

"Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

[ Parent ]

• ##### The CW is that(4+ / 0-)

GOTV is worth at most two points, and perhaps that's what we saw.

Now GOTV isn't a one-sided affair. We know the GOP is doing their own GOTV. And traditionally, they've been better at it with their network of megachurches driving the machine.

So we can't just add a point here and there unless we fully understand what the other side is doing. And that's never really possible.

Furthermore, we knew the GOP was doing better in early voting this year than in 2008, but we didn't know if that was new voters, or unreliable voters, or people who would've voted regardless, whether early or on election day.

The campaigns have the best data and ability to track that info, not just for themselves, but what the other side is doing (based on their own polling and statistical modeling). But they won't share that info outside of their campaigns.

So we're left with incomplete, imperfect data.

And by the way, I didn't take your comment as criticism. The thought didn't even occur to me.

[ Parent ]

• ##### The site's GOTV efforts were superlative.(17+ / 0-)

So many started doing boots on the ground work months ago.

GOTV series like "Why I Vote For Democrats" and "Obama Nightly News" started up at the very beginning of the year.

Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse organized an amazing  GOTV Blogathon to help keep the energy going the crucial final days before the election.

We had Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, Robert Riche, AFL-CIO President Trumka, Tammy Duckworth, Senator Al Franken, Van Jones and others right here!

That says volumes about the site's importance in helping GOTV.

PD, J&H, peregrine kate, TomP, JanF, HoundDog, ForestLake, thankgodforairamerica, Nebraska68847, bjm, and so many others made that happen.

We have kossacks like nomandates, who won't quit until they've turned their red states blue.  They're in it for the long haul.

We have an enormously deep bench of commitment to GOTV and that's not even counting the truly mind boggling work of OFA.

Bravos and deepest thanks are not nearly enough for all the hard work that has made this victory and future victories possible.

"Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

[ Parent ]

• ##### Gratz Kos :) n/t(3+ / 0-)

Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter. ~ Yoda Political Compass: -8.50, -6.46

• ##### Kos(3+ / 0-)

Thank you for keeping me sane throughout the election season.

• ##### Hey guys, we're STILL counting in California.(13+ / 0-)

For all those who made national popular vote predictions, just know that we're still counting MILLIONS of ballots in California, and probably will until December.  So for all those who said turnout was down in California based on election night returns, those people really don't understand the state.

As of right now, Obama is now ahead of Romney here by 21 percentage points.  Election night only had Obama beating him by about 15 points or so.

Barack Obama (D) 6,414,573 59.3%
Mitt Romney (R)  4,136,120 38.3%

Remember, Obama beat McCain here 61.01%-36.95% in 2008.

Barack Obama (D) 8,274,473 61.01%
John McCain (R)  5,011,781 36.95%

As ballots keep getting counted, Obama's margin has only increased, as most of the uncounted ballots are coming from the liberal counties where people actually live.  :-)  Why, even just yesterday when I checked, Obama was only ahead of Romney by 20.6%.  Obama is crushing Romney 68.6%-29.1% where I live in Los Angeles County, and his margin is only growing here as more votes are counted.

I would think that when all the votes are finally counted, Obama will again get over 8 million votes from Californians, and Romney will also get over 5 million votes here as well.

Oh, and when it comes to the ballot propositions, the numbers are also still shifting.  Prop. 30 has steadily gained support as well, and now has 54.3% of the vote.  And check this map out.  Prop. 36, which reforms the Three Strikes Law to make it more fair, passed in EVERY SINGLE COUNTY.  (Madera County brought up the rear with only 51.3% supporting it.)

I'm even seeing some supporters of Prop. 37 (labeling GMOs) say they may still have a shot if the uncounted ballots go more in their favor, though I don't think they can make up enough of a margin.  Prop. 34 (repealing the death penalty) has a better chance of passing.

• ##### Would love to see a reversal of outcome on Prop 34(3+ / 0-)

not holding my breath though.

• ##### Yeah(8+ / 0-)

I'm holding out hope that California pushes Romney down to 47.4, hence rounding down to that karmic 47 percent.

Last night he inched down from 47.9 to 47.8. So we're seeing movement in the right direction.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Count the provisionals in Ohio!(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MuskokaGord, nellgwen

What would be truly karmic is for court beat-downs of Republican efforts at suppression to lead to the final push down under 47.5%.

Howard Dean will always be my president.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Still lots of provisionals in AZ too, eh? (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
4democracy, nellgwen

Although Brewer and her ilk may be holding nightly bonfires "community weenie roasts..."

So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

[ Parent ]

• ##### right, it'll be very close(0+ / 0-)

On your score- you'll have called the national percent very close, it's heading right toward 3.5%. You'll have done more respectably than it now seems in OH, which is likely to end up around 3%.

I think you win not only abs val but also rms.

Michael Weissman UID 197542

[ Parent ]

• ##### and Arizona!!!!!!(0+ / 0-)

for cryin' out loud...:)

• ##### Impressive.(3+ / 0-)

I've been here quite a while, and your predictive abilities seem to keep getting better. Nice work.

"Microscopes are prudent in an emergency." -- Emily Dickinson

• ##### Markos,(4+ / 0-)

I TRUST this site to give an accurate analysis of available polling. This site has proved itself over and over again. Whenever I would read something in the newspaper or another site, I would always check out the analysis here.

Superior in every way. Thanks for keeping it real for us, as we have come to expect no less. Even bad news is welcome because then we can accurately move forward with the correct facts to try to address the problem.

Great work!

Truth is harmonious, lies are discordant.

• ##### Congrats Kos...so proud to have been a tiny(6+ / 0-)

part of this community since 2004...

...going through long phases of just lurking alternating with phases of mad commenting with a diary here and there.

Sometimes the frustration of not being able to appreciably make a difference in the world forces me  to take a break for the sake of serenity....

...but I always know that I can come back here to find a sane and reality-based perspective on whatever is happening out there.   There is always someone whose posts will 'talk me down' from dangerous fear and hysteria engendered by the media or my own addled brain, or guide me toward the 'signal in the noise', to paraphrase Nate Silver.

There are always so many people so much smarter than me, and all in one convenient place!

Reality is always better than fantasy; even if the reality is not to our liking.  If we don't face it, we can't even adapt to it, let alone change it.

Most important, DailyKos has inspired me to get out and act - to canvas outside my state in 2008; to phone bank and donate in both elections; to try and inform and respectfully educate others through social media and other methods.

Thank you Kos and everyone here for what you do.

"The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

• ##### My congratulations to kos of course but...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MuskokaGord, Onomastic

Nate's now building a long-term track record of success, and while he is progressive, there has never been even the faintest hint of bias from him (at least that I could detect). Nate is like the little league umpire calling his own kids team: impartiality to the job is more important than the final result.

While kos nailed his call just as close (closer), he has another job, which is of course to be a partisan journalist/pundit , and it is a job he does well.

• ##### Thank you for this!(5+ / 0-)
All my happy, confident talk over the summer and even after the first debate? It wasn't bullshit. It wasn't spin. It was the facts based on the available data. That's why we didn't run around like panicked chickens like MSNBC or Andrew Sullivan after the first debate.
All the pundits were caught up in the theatrics of the debate and just forgot about all the state polls.  It was dishonorable.

Great job on your election predictions too. So many were pushing horserace when it clearly wasn't.

• ##### indeed(3+ / 0-)

that cannot be said enough times.  unfortunately, the panicked chickens weren't relegated to MSNBC or Sully's world.

Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

[ Parent ]

• ##### Our next challenges(12+ / 0-)

Identify the Republican held seats most vulnerable to a challenge from a progressive Democrat in 2014, and the candidates best suited to make such challenges.

And pick out a few on our side who need challenging, who could lose such a challenge, and the candidates to bring that fight.

• ##### 2014(0+ / 0-)

I would hope that in the next couple of weeks that "Kos" and others would come up with a list of Congressional districits to target for 2014.  That would give all of us an opportunity in our own states to really familiarize ourselves with the district(s), the demographics, cities within them and seek out really qualified people to run for them.  We would then be able to put them on the ground starting with voter lists, contacts for each precinct in the district, media contacts and start raising the money now a few \$ a month for a large seed fund.

We can win 2014 if we start now with the districts and have candidates in place by February 2013.

I would love to get rid of Lamar Smith in Texas for example but we need the research to see if this district is a good prospect.  I bet every large state has at least 2 districts that could be targeted.

• ##### That's an R+14 district(0+ / 0-)

Not a target.

• ##### Well then, how about we put my little corner of (0+ / 0-)

the world on that list...

(WA-03)

The incumbent, freshman congressman (R) Jamie Herrera Beutler, won a 60.12% to 39.88% against the challenger (D) Jon Haugen.

Haugen had ZERO support from county or state Democratic Party, as he was not endorsed at the County Convention in June, they only endorsed him a couple weeks prior to the general election, in October.

Mostly because he opposes (for good, fiscal reasons) the CDC (Columbia River Crossing), which is a Boondoggle just waiting to be hatched. Proposed plans put it at about \$3 billion - to tear down the I-5 bridge over the Columbia river (and it's 6 lanes of traffic) and replace it with... a new bridge with the same 6 lanes of traffic. Haugen suggested we leave that bridge up and build a new one instead, with less 'fluff', for about \$700 million. The local and state Party was not happy about his stance, to say the least.

He had about ZERO campaign money (and spent his last year hitting every political event and meeting in the District instead, hoping face-to-face meetings with party members would be worth more than fundraising dollars), and still managed to grab just under 40% in the general election.

All 3 local State Rep races were won by (D) candidates, with, respectively, 59%, 60% and 60% of the vote.

The 3rd is a mixed bag, with the largest county (mine) Clark holding almost half of the voting population of the seven counties in the 3rd, and Clark is almost exactly a 50/50 split, when you count national, state and local races.

We've been seen as "leaning Republican" for about three cycles now, and I think that could change with just a little bit of assistance to the Democratic Party US House candidate in 2014, whomever it may be.

"I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization" -- me

[ Parent ]

• ##### But that's the thing(0+ / 0-)

40% is the "if your name is on the ballot" level; this is a theoretically winnable district, but that guy raised \$12K total. That's pathetic.

• ##### I acted as his campaign manager for part of the (0+ / 0-)

year, Jan-March, until personal family issues made it impossible to continue, on my part.

He was unmovable on the issue of raising money, would not authorize any fundraising efforts, other than accepting donations people gave without being asked via the website. I don't recall his exact words, but he definitely found campaign fundraising "icky" business.

Lacking public support from endorsement by the County and State Party hurt him terribly through the summer and fall, both in terms of \$\$ and volunteers.

It wasn't that there isn't support for (D) candidates here, the 3rd gave Brian Baird five or six terms (90s to 2008).

I'd love to see this guy, Craig Pridemore, take another run at the office in 2014: http://votesmart.org/...

Craig lost his primary bid for WA State Auditor this year and will be out of his WA State Senator gig in January. So he'll be open to think about it. He ran in 2008, but lost out to Denny Heck (the newly elected US Rep from WA-10) that cycle. He went for the in-state seat this go round, but he might be back in 2014, I certainly hope so.

"I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization" -- me

[ Parent ]

• ##### Should have been in my shoes, trying to find a (0+ / 0-)

way to get some funds to start getting some PR out...

comedy of errors doesn't even come close.

Still he was a smart guy who would have been a solid supporter of the Obama Administration, and who would have acted in the best interests of The People of the District.

He was just unable or unwilling to acknowledge that to run for national political office meant taking off the blindfold about how politics still works in America. He put his principles above his desire to be a Congressman.

Call me crazy, but isn't that last thing something we should want in a politician?

"I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization" -- me

[ Parent ]

• ##### Happy to be a part of this(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
foresterbob, Cedwyn, nellgwen, Onomastic

with all you excellent people.

• ##### I will say this(4+ / 0-)

Daily Kos kept me sane during the last two months of the campaign. Especially while my husband and I were in Europe and the information we were getting (primarily on the first debate) was making me feel nauseous. Given somewhat slow and unreliable internet access, I eliminated all the other sites I often check and went directly to Daily Kos.

During the last few days of the campaign, I was getting crazy messages from 2 of my Southern "friends" on Facebook telling me how Romney was going to win. My comments back to them were basically "Don't you wish?" I knew they were wrong because of the information I picked up here, not only on polling but on the fantastic ground game in swing states.

Assurances from the Daily Kos supreme prognosticator:  better than xanax.

"...in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy." Matt Taibbi

• ##### thank you(4+ / 0-)

This site has been an oasis of sanity, even when the news is bad like in 2010.

Thank you for providing me this link to others of my ilk spread around the world.

www.dailykos.com is America's Blog of Record

• ##### Yes, we are a fact based community, and so much(4+ / 0-)

more!

We're a kind, tolerant and supportive community too, (I'm always touched by how much love a fellow Kossack gets when they diary about the passing of a loved one, human or otherwise).

Well done Kos, and thank you!

"May truth and love triumph over lies and hatred." Vaclav Havel

• ##### GEEK FIIIIIIGHT !!(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Cedwyn, nellgwen, Angie in WA State

i wanna see a cage match with markos and nate silver. old school. slide rules only.

< / snarque >

seriously: congratulations.

to all of you.

i am still a combination of bewildered and giddy about just how nakedly apparent the lesson was delivered that one can measure with accuracy, or one can pull stuff out of backside.

choose carefully.

keep your eyes on the sky. put a dollar in the kitty. don't the moon look pretty. --becker&fagen

• ##### It's like Iraq.(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Cedwyn, LuvSet, lotlizard, Onomastic

The only people the TM listens to are those who got it wrong.

• ##### Which is, of course, good news(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

for John McCain.

• ##### MattTX.(3+ / 0-)

Thanks for pointing his diaries out.  Although we didn't get NC, I found the analysis in this diaries to be very informative and thoughtful.

He looked at the data from all angles (but what if we look at it this way..., but what if look at it that way ...).

He has a great diary up now on the Cuban-American vote.

I couldn't have agreed with you more about the winning attitude you took.  We WERE winning.  There was no need for the panic.  In fact, it only fed the traditional media beast and its lust to create a horse-race where none existed.

I can't tell you how many people I had to calm down by saying, "Here, read this kos diary and take a nap 'til you feel better".

• ##### Good job Markos!(0+ / 0-)

But good luck trying to get your head through the door.  ;)

• ##### Congratulations KOS(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MuskokaGord, Onomastic

Yes, many congratulations are in order.

Now ... let us see how you do in the long haul. From what I can see, bad news for the left does not scare them as much as it does on the right. At least, this is how I see it on an anecdotal basis.

The long haul is the ONLY way to go in my book.

No more gooper LITE!

• ##### Oh(6+ / 0-)

I've been pretty solid since 2006.

In 2008, I may have been the only person to call Indiana for Obama. I did miss Missouri, goddam it, my single blemish that year.

In fact, now that things are slowing down I think I'll audit my predictions going back to the beginning. My 2002 and 2004 calls sucked. But each cycle I learn from my mistakes.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Audit(4+ / 0-)

I, and probably many others here at your fine site would love to see a summary of your past predictions.

I usually come here to figure out what is really going on with the numbers. Your site is truly a  no BS site when it comes to the numbers. I remember in the 2010 cycle, when you said it was going to be difficult. It turned out to be very difficult.

Thanks again KOS!!!
Ken

No more gooper LITE!

[ Parent ]

• ##### I cribbed off Kos' numbers and my family(6+ / 0-)

thinks I'm a genius for calling everthing so well.  I told a select few where my secret sauce came from.

• ##### Ha - I did the same (though I just...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
deanarms, Onomastic

fessed up and sent them the link to this diary ;-)

• ##### "Good vibrations" works better as a song, than as(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, nellgwen

polling technique.

• ##### That's what I said last night.(0+ / 0-)

It's better to use I Get Around.

"Is that your vegetarian leather jacket?" George Harrison

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yeah, well, ...(0+ / 0-)

... nail the 2014 midterms and we can talk.

Until then, you're just a commie sympathizer with a fetish for orange who got lucky.

• ##### The site's purpose is to elect democrats(3+ / 0-)

and it does a damn good job of it. Well done, Kos.

• ##### the answer is actually three-fold(9+ / 0-)
Brooklynbadboy wonders why Daily Kos doesn't get respect from the political class. The answer is two-fold: Establishment media assume that all partisan media are full of hacks like Dick Morris, and they still can't stomach us usurpers horning in on their territory.
part of the problem is what goes on beyond the front page.  when diaries like this get rec'd up, we look like CT wackos.  when the whole community is embroiled in personal sagas like The Nephew, we look effin' stupid.  when the same story is on the rec list twice, we appear a tad daft.  the eminently unprofessional sally field moment doesn't help matters either.

Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

• ##### Yea, that's right(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, nellgwen

Wacky diaries is what prevented Eric Ericson from getting is  gig at CNN too. Oh, wait ...

• ##### Agree on CT, sagas. But no probs w/ duplicates. nt(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
• ##### please explain that to me(0+ / 0-)

because i don't see how putting the same story up there twice, when there's little to no substantive difference, makes a lick of sense.  it's like if a newspaper put the same story twice on one page.

peace

Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

[ Parent ]

• ##### i mean when they're on the rec list(0+ / 0-)

at the same time.

Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

[ Parent ]

• ##### We're not a newspaper, nor TV. We're a blog.(0+ / 0-)

Having multiple diaries on the same topic on the Rec List is a sign that an issue is important, complex, and/or unfolding. Different authors have different 'takes' on it, different info, and appeal to different audiences. (I kind of enjoy it when two or more opposing diaries appear on the Rec List at the same time -- a sign of our openness to rational discussion, meaningful debate and deliberation.)

There's no reason that we should even try to look like a single newspaper or hierarchical TV station. That's not a useful metric to compare us to.

Our strength at DailyKos is that we have thousands of independent, intelligent and informed diary-writers. Not that we have a few superstars, nor that we have some disciplined institution that allows only a single voice to wrie on a given issue each day.

I can't even imagine DailyKos trying to enforce a single diary rule for the Rec List, because it would so undermine what makes us strong.

• ##### i get the different takes/new info thing(0+ / 0-)

and i even get something being so important that seeing it on the rec day after day makes enough sense.  but to have two diaries with little to no substantive difference on the same topic appearing on the rec list at the same time is nothing but a waste.

saying the same thing twice doesn't magically grow the audience.

conversely, to say that it's okay to repeat ourselves on the rec list carries the implicit assertion that there is no other topic that is equally compelling or deserving of broader exposure/consideration.

so, as a recent example:

the rec list has been chock full of hostess diaries lately; yesterday, two that reported the exact same thing, with very little in the way of additional info, were up there at the same time.

meanwhile, israel and gaza are bombing each other.  i can think of few news stories more significant than that right now.

peace

Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

[ Parent ]

• ##### No wonder 5,000 people join every day,(3+ / 0-)

with lots of their names ending in numbers!
Whatever do they have planned?

K(ud)OS!

skipping over damaged area

• ##### I'm still really suspicious of the OH numbers(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

I think there were some shenanigans.

• ##### Question, Kos. I think I read that PPP, our poll(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, Onomastic

watcher, didn't do very well. I got this off Silver's site yesterday where compared all polling operations.
Is this correct?

Crow is best eaten without wine. Why?

• ##### "No brag--just fact." Guns Of Will Sonnett. nt(3+ / 0-)

Fuck Big Brother...from now on, WE'RE watching.

• ##### Yes, we do get it.(3+ / 0-)

That's why I check by several times a day.

I came here first in 2005 after googling "Katrina pictures. "

Don't know why google landed me here.  But thank goodess!

I didn't peruse diaries regularly til about 2008.  What a treasure the diaries are.

• ##### I was pretty accurate!(2+ / 0-)

Of course I used all of Nate's and Kos's research to base my opinion, but nobody has to know that.

Republicans - they measure our national success by corporate profit margin, not the well being of the citizens.

• ##### Uh, really?(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
implicate order, kos, lotlizard, Onomastic
1) Math-based prognostication is superior to the old-school way of talking about gut feelings,
Mr. President, my name is Stephen Colbert, and tonight it is my privilege to celebrate this president, ‘cause we're not so different, he and I. We both get it. Guys like us, we're not some brainiacs on the nerd patrol. We're not members of the factinista. We go straight from the gut. Right, sir?

That's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut. Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. Now, I know some of you are going to say, "I did look it up, and that's not true." That's 'cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut. I did. My gut tells me that's how our nervous system works.

• ##### love the Bill James analogy.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

What he said about the late 70s Royals, that he had developed an almost superstitious trust in his judgment, I've felt about reading him re baseball becfamse he constantly asks himself, "How do I know what I just said? Is it really true." I experienced this interviewing him oncem when a farily commonly known statistical point seemed to verify his POV but when it came up, he felt honor bound to quickly scan his brain for possible exceptions before continuing the line of thought.

I feel the same confidence, with qualms about whether it is actually superstition, reading the daily numbers here.

Thanks and good job.

Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

• ##### Thanks for this great site, Kos. It has(4+ / 0-)

kept me sane and informed throughout the years.

• ##### Nice one, and this diary is, too.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge
• ##### Ohio(4+ / 0-)

Does anyone find it suspicious that Ohio is the only state whose actual was lower than predicted, and substantially so? I remember poll after poll showing 4, 5 point leads, few less than 3, yet it seems to be the only heavily polled state where Obama significantly underperformed the aggregate polling.

On top of that, Ohio was the most heavily polled state, so in theory should have been the most accurately aggragated. Yet, check this graph from Votamatic:

https://dl.dropbox.com/...

There could be any number of explanations other than active vote tampering. Yet, in 2004, Bush well outperformed exit polls. And then there was Karl Rove, disputing Ohio. Could all be a bunch of coincidences. My concern is, if only 1-2% of votes can be "counted" a certain why in a marginal election, and OH polling was much narrower than it was, well... that's why the experimental polling software really had me worried.

• ##### There are 300k provisonals left.(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Vicky, Angie in WA State, Onomastic

Say 200k get counted. They're likely to break ~2/1 D. You've upped the margin a factor of 1.6, to over 3%. I'm not saying that there was no cheating on the count, but simple visible vote suppression, some of which will be undone by the remaining count, is the obvious explanation for most if not all of the discrepancy.

Michael Weissman UID 197542

[ Parent ]

• ##### Congratulations, Kos. Further evidence just(3+ / 0-)

how seriously dailykos needs to be taken in relation to today's ridiculous msm.

If the plutocrats begin the program, we will end it. -- Eugene Debs.

• ##### As with Bill James, it will take longer than it(2+ / 0-)

should, but they'll come around. I was reading Bill James in the mid-eighties and baseball didn't really start to implement his ideas till the early 90's and even then, very slowly.   Meanwhile we'll be on the inside knowing that we've got the best information and insights.  Kind of like the feeling we had reading Nate here at Dkos and on his own site, before the NYT picked it up.   This was a very gratifying cycle.  For that matter as disappointing as 2010 was, this community was not surprised by the resuts because we were facing reality in the eye.

• ##### Two things: 1) Sabermetrics is debunked(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, Onomastic

by the success of the San Francisco Giants, who rejected the practice in favor of less emphasis on stats and more emphasis good human resources practices. Sabermetrics was always flawed (ask the Oakland A's when they last one the world series), because the stats didn't capture things like willingness to sacrifice for the team. The Giants won the world series with the least regular season home runs in the league.

In other words, don't discount the power of combining statistical knowledge with softer skills like experience and understanding of cultural factors.

Ultimately nate stuck to pure numbers and markos did something slightly different, as he got slightly different numbers. Perhaps that's where the softer skills kicked in.

• ##### Sabermetrics can't be "debunked"--(0+ / 0-)

it is the science of baseball/sports statistics. What may have been debunked is the way Billy Beane has been using it. Bill James himself works for the Red Sox, and they won 2 WS; he has the rings to prove it.

"Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

[ Parent ]

• ##### Actually, you can debunk the notion(0+ / 0-)

that a set of statistics around specific actions in a game can predict human behavior in a team sport.

As for the red sox success, why do you assume it is because of sabermetrics? Perhaps during those seasons they simply managed their people better.

• ##### They attributed at least some of their success(0+ / 0-)

to James, at least according to the Wikipedia article on him. He is still employed by them, too--they are speaking with their wallets . . .

But sabermetrics is not predictions. It is the body of statistics that the predictions or managerial actions may be based on. The statistics are what they are--theoretically more accurate measuring tools than what came before. What people do with them is what you are talking about, and we may never know if the sabermetricians are right or wrong, because no team--A's or Sox or anyone--has fully subscribed to using them exclusively (as if you could.)
Beane may have come closest, but can you really say he failed? You would have to know what would have happened to the A's if he wasn't their GM doing what he did. Maybe they did better than they would have otherwise, which is all that can be attributed to his use of sabermetrics. That they never won the WS is more likely an indictment of their inability to pay the best players to come to Oakland regardless of traditional v. sabermetric analysis.
The best sabermetrically-measured players are frequently the best traditionally-measured ones, too. It's at levels below the very top that sabermetrics can help a club, but most saliently they can also identify those whose performances don't merit inclusion at the very top. If you could choose the best 9 players in the game and had them play another set of 9 players repeatedly, the best would win 80-90% of the time.
The issue is twofold: 1) identifying the best players is the easiest task for a sabermetrician to solve in a real world situation; however, 2) the most important task is to find the best players that one can afford to hire.

"Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yeah(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bryduck

Theo is a big believer in statistics. It's something I hope he brings to the Cubs.

And the difference between the A's and the Red Sox isn't stats, it's budget. Billy Beane uses stats to find the least valued skills that can help him win games, so that he can afford to field a competitive baseball team. Theo could find the most valuable skills to win a baseball game, regardless of cost.

[ Parent ]

• ##### No surprise there(3+ / 0-)

Oh dont get me wrong, I think its something that at the very least is neat and you deserve to feel proud about.

But honestly, after all these years? Ive just gotten used to you being right. And of course that attracts other correct people, and they are correct all the time too. Really this seems to be one of the most competent places online.

And that scares off republicans, so all the better!

Then you came out all of a sudden and said, "You're Prism Indigo!" but I don't get it...

• ##### GOP has the data behind the curtain...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, nellgwen

...where it is safe from the masses and the masses are safe from it. For nothing is as important to the conservative mindset and mode of operation as the projection of confident authority, leadership and superiority. Subjecting ones idealogy to the tyranny of fact checkers and reality is to willingly handicap oneself on the field of political gamesmanship.

(-9,-9) pragmatic incrementalist :-P

• ##### Good on you Kos(3+ / 0-)

This is why I have called you (and now Nate) my Sane Asylum. Seriously you have continued to save my sanity for all the years that I have followed you (since Howard Dean). THANK YOU

I am pro-life. Bring our troops home ALIVE!

• ##### I was using David Jarman's benchmark(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, nellgwen, kos

analysis all night to quell my fellow election watchers fears.  Based on the results coming from CNN & the NYT, I knew the election was pretty much over by 9:30.  I told everyone that, but still they fretted.

Thanks so much Kis and the rest of the crew!

I must end each and every day with a dose of a regularly scheduled Top Comments. A regularly scheduled Top Comments diary is a must for developing the calmness I need to get the required eight hours of sleep. - cohenzee

• ##### This is unacceptable(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
angry marmot, nellgwen, Onomastic

When education—and its degenerate handmaidens science and mathematics—are employed by God-hating socialists to defeat good Bible-thumping Christian men and women, it proves how inherently evil and gay education really is. To prevent Godless Democrats from using education to implement Sharia law and forced abortions for men and women alike, we need the Supreme Court to unskew the election results, declare Mitt Romney and all Republicans the victors, and return Jesus to his proper place in the Oval Office.

• ##### Plus you were right on this too(9+ / 0-)

Romney is a dick.

I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

• ##### I made that call(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
hulibow, Angie in WA State

based on the data.

His chance of being a dick when interacting with the commoners was 100 percent. Look it up!

[ Parent ]

• ##### Congratulations!(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge, nellgwen

That's one of the reasons this blog has become a daily read for me.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

• ##### Not so fast(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Kos can legitimately brag about his own final calls, but not so much about the DailyKos-commissioned PPP polls.
As Nate Silver has pointed out, many pollsters improved their final accuracy by "herding": readjusting the model at the end to get the results to agree more closely with other pollsters.  PPP was one of these: its accuracy over the last three weeks was only in the middle of the pack.  This means that they must have been worse than average three weeks out, but near-perfect at the end. How did they do so well when they only called cell phones?  The answer appears to be that they tweaked their turnout model to the point where the results landed near the middle.

• ##### Mathematical incompetence(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, Vicky, Onomastic

Largely due to this website, I can look at anyone who predicted a Romney win as Mathmatically incompetent. Any one who thought Mitt had momentum two weeks after the first debate, they were Mathmatically incompetent. Any one who claims that Romney momentum was stopped by Sandy, well they are Mathmatically incompetent.

This all leads to the conclusion that Mathmaticians have no home in the GOP unless they are accountants for the wealthy, or provide data to hedge fund managers. So add Mathmaticians to the list of occupations persona non grata.

Scientists, teachers, artists, young, gay, pacifists, environmentalists, non whites, social workers, union members, single women, working women, the poor, pro choice, less religious, animal well fare, pro clean air & water.

• ##### That's not really fair:(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

they have to be willing to try math in the first place before you know whether they're mathematically incompetent.

You can call it "class warfare" -- we call it "common sense"

[ Parent ]

• ##### WOO-HOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Good for you, Kos, and take the comment above mine as an example of the nitpicking based on inaccurate reading that too many Kossacks have been prone to recently.

-7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

• ##### Aggregation vs. polling(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

I heard someone from Gallup interviewed on NPR a few days ago, asking about the success of Nate Silver, over Gallup's projections. He made a good point, which I suspect you (Markos) have already thought about, but might not be apparent to others who haven't made statistics their life's passion.

Nate's and your methods are largely by sampling (in a statistical sense) the reported results of various for-profit polls. Those polls, individually, were each less accurate than a statistically massaged composite, as pointed out above. That's the power of statistics (and a well-designed Monte Carlo simulation, especially.)

Those polls are very expensive to conduct. Four years from now, the demand for these expensive polls will be driven by the media's recollection of Nate Silver's success. (Very few, other than the present readers, know of Markos' success.) I hope we don't see the demise of non-partisan polling; there will be fewer polls for Nate and Markos to sample!  And the quality of remaining polls will be suspect, since they will be necessarily driven by political parties with a very specific agenda.

I think we have to be pretty careful about comparing these statistical analyses to polling results. Each has an important role.

Anyway, just my 2 ȼ.

-5.38, -2.97
Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Islands, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

• ##### This. Is. Cool. !!(3+ / 0-)

I am so proud to be a kossack!!!  Thanks for everything, Kos!!

"Mediocrity cannot know excellence." -- Sherlock Holmes

• ##### as the great Randall Munroe said on xkcd:(3+ / 0-)

You can call it "class warfare" -- we call it "common sense"

• ##### But Magnet?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
implicate order

How the fuck do they work?

"Is that your vegetarian leather jacket?" George Harrison

[ Parent ]

• ##### I once made a house out of popsicle sticks(4+ / 0-)

But your achievement is nice, too.

• ##### You must have had to eat a lot of popsicles.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Reggid

Or did you melt them all then drink them?
Or used them to make a sauce like in the show Chopped?

"Is that your vegetarian leather jacket?" George Harrison

[ Parent ]

• ##### By the time I was done, I was hearing colors(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, LuvSet, Onomastic

Purple is the loudest, by the way.   Mmmm . . . purple . . .

• ##### It feels good to be right. It feels better to win(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
nellgwen, Onomastic

We won and we were right.

Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

• ##### Here was my November 5 prediction(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

I posted this on facebook hours before Kos posted his, so no plagarism!

POTUS Electoral College: Obama 332 (close states are FL and VA), Romney 206
POTUS Popular Vote: Obama 50.5%, Romney 48% (1.5% third party candidates)
Senate: 55D/45R
House: Dems pick up 15 seats, not enough to win majority
All of my predictions were based on analysis I read here, so I can't take all the credit.  My friends think I'm a political genius!

The only prediction I miffed was House, which was admittedly just an optimistic shot in the dark.  Not too bad, though!

• ##### Delete my fuckin' margin of error Kos!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State

• ##### Well done!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State

Congrats, Markos!

Please stand by. I'm looking for a new sig line.

• ##### congratulations on being correct, sir(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

you deserve to take a bow.

and thanks again for this great site.

so long and thanks for all the fish

• ##### In addition to the(14+ / 0-)

FP calculations and Jed's excellent video, give credit to the people who organized and wrote the excellent Vote for Democrats series of diaries, and the many many more who worked very long and hard to GOTV.

All of those efforts helped make those predictions accurate.

Yesterday's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson

• ##### I'll say it again(9+ / 0-)

We got marriage equality in four states. Marijuana was legalized in two. More women in the Senate. A lot of Democratic victories. In my area, Alan Grayson is now my Representative.

How did this happen?

Do you remember in 2008 when Sarah Palin sneered at President Obama because he was "just a community organizer"? I do.

If she's sneering now, she's an idiot.

OFA and other groups GOT THE VOTE OUT. That includes Kossacks here, as well.

President Obama's ground game was one of the best in history. More people were registered, more people were driven to the polls, more people volunteered... THAT is what brought us these victories. Not just the Presidential win, but the downticket stuff as well.

It was the power of money, vs. the power of the people. President Obama, OFA, and many here at Daily Kos bet on the people, and we WON.

Hope lives!!

"We have only the moral ground we actually inhabit, not the moral ground we claim." - It Really Is That Important

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yup, boots on the ground(9+ / 0-)

and sandals and sneakers and Jimmy Choos and even bare feet. Without that degree of personal involvement and very very hard work, prognostications are just whistling into the wind.

Yesterday's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson

[ Parent ]

• ##### Ohio Rigged(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

These results just re-confirm my fear that certain saavy Republicans try to rig the Ohio results, by electronicaly switching votes from Democrat to Republican.

Markos, Nate, and Lizner all either accurately predicted the correct percentage margin of victory for Obama, or under reported Obama's margin of victory.  This occurred in all states EXCEPT Ohio, in which all three over reported the percentage of the margin of victory.

My theory is that when the election is close in Ohio, votes are automatically switched from Democrat to Republican.  This did not occur in 2008 because the margin of victory for Obama was going to be too big, and it would be too risky to rig the results in Ohio - more chance of getting caught.

When Karl Rove claimed that the Romney would win Ohio, even after the Ohio results were called for Obama, why was that?  What did he know that we didn't? I predict the same thing happened in Florida in 2000.

I wish some powers that be would look into this!  My guess is that Obama actually won the election in Ohio by 5 percentage points, not 2.

• ##### All Hail K(os)(3+ / 0-)

Texas is just trying to trick Mexico into building the dang fence.

• ##### subjective judgement vs. science(0+ / 0-)

"They were wedded to their algorithmic and automatic models, but my model is manual, allowing me the freedom to evaluate each piece of data on its merits and separate the wheat from the chaff"

The problem is, these are subjective processes, and there's no difference between that and "vibrations", unskewing, etc.

If it's opinion, it's not math but punditry---even if it was right. Certainly one can be proud of being right, but formal models can be used in future elections, whereas human talent is fleeting.

• ##### Not true(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

I was able to account for early vote results. I was able to reject clear outlier to have a tighter polling consensus. I was able to account for late voter registration updates. None of those were a part of anyone else's algorithms.

It's subjective in deciding what data was relevant, but not subjective as in "based on vibrations". I was looking at numbers on a spreadsheet, and I decided how much to weigh them.

Note that Nate also weighs the polls in his database and adjusts them based on his own subjective standards. Thus, he gave Mason-Dixon more weight than I did. Turns out my call was correct. He was more correct on other things. In the end, I made slightly better decisions.

But everything I did was based on the data. Otherwise, I would've called ND for Heitkamp, because my gut was SCREAMING at me that she was going to win.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Will GOPers try to ban math as a school subject?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
implicate order, Onomastic

It seems to be the "logical" next step for them.

The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

• ##### Did you ever get an apology from Andrew Sullivan?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

He listed you among the unrealistic prognosticators, presumably in an effort to be even-handed.

Also, WTF went wrong with Ohio? Why was everyone so way off on that one state?

• ##### wait until thr provisional ballots are counted(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

before deciding how OH did

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

[ Parent ]

• ##### I didn't see anything like that(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

[ Parent ]

• ##### Here it is.(0+ / 0-)

The post is here: http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/...

He contrasts your prediction with Dick Morris', which alone merits and apology, but only insofar as you both made predictions "beyond polling expectations". Still, since he's been piling on Morris for being wrong, would have been nice if he'd given you a post-election shout-out for being right.

• ##### Congrats! Keep up the good work because(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

we are the lords of the ring!

• ##### I am really impressed with this site...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

And the wealth of knowlege and skills on display.  As someone who registered in 2006, to basically be an "R"' lurker (I enjoy politics), Nate Silver especially stands out.

As for the gut vs math debate,  I had warned alot of my fellow Rs down here in central Florida, that Obama was going to win this state (I am an Obama R), and i was only surprised how close the final tally was.  Demographically, Florida is changing.  Us old white dudes are thinning out....LOL!  J/k

• ##### I'm enjoying riding on your coat tails .(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Angie in WA State, Onomastic

I think I will send a link to this diary to UID #66948 and #147470 .

"Drop the name-calling." Meteor Blades 2/4/11

• ##### Nicely played.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Obama and Olbermann.

"I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization" -- me

[ Parent ]

• ##### problem(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Congrats--but the problem is many of the polls you used were paid for by the media--and the internet is squeezing that media.  When I first found this site, quite awhile ago, I agreed with your anger at the NY Times charging for internet content--now, I feel obligated to help them stay in business.    The internet has been destructive, and often unreliable--not so this site.  Thanks.

Apres Bush, le deluge.

• ##### I worship the Great Orange Satan(0+ / 0-)

until it's no longer justified.

... or my lifetime subscription runs out.

• ##### I made some bets on the election(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

based on a combination of the predictions you and Nate made.  I won every bet netting me about \$260.  I'm kicking my self for not betting more!

O to win the presidency
O to win over 289 1/2 EVs
O to win OH
O to win VA
O to win IA
O to win FL

I should've bet on Nevada too. That was practically a shoo-in.

Yeah, okay buddy.

• ##### Congrats !!!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

well deserved.

• ##### Is this really necessary?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Gut feeling based on math based on commercial polling?  Worth gloating about?  Perhaps the fact that we won is, but we have our own work to thank for that.

What exactly is a google problem?

• ##### Credit where credit is due...bravo(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
• ##### we ARE worthy!!!!! OK you are worthy(0+ / 0-)

thank you for continuing to make sense

• ##### So....(0+ / 0-)

are we a reality-based community, or a progressive one?

You report, we decide!

The most violent element in society is ignorance.

• ##### That's Why...(0+ / 0-)

...Daily KOS is one of my top media sources, and why I support it.

I knew she was the gal for me as soon as she laid her eyes on me. Right on me shoulder, she did. Popped the buggers right out her head, and laid em on me shoulder. She's a sweet heart, that gal.

• ##### Uh - what about Max Wang at PEC?(0+ / 0-)

The Princeton Election Consortium was pretty dern accurate, also.

I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just; that his justice cannot sleep forever. ~Thomas Jefferson

• ##### sam wang(0+ / 0-)

he did very well indeed.

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

[ Parent ]

• ##### and...(0+ / 0-)

discussed in the main post

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

[ Parent ]

• ##### Enjoy your 15' of Fame Kos(0+ / 0-)

Congratulations! But don't forget that those that rise to such lofty heights are doomed to fall sooner or later, and sometimes it is a long ways down....

"In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual."
-Galileo Galilei

• ##### I made a contribution(0+ / 0-)

I realized that your election posts, along with Nate Silver's and TPM's polling data, are what helped me make \$1700+ on InTrade, so I gave a little back. ;)

• ##### Kos you wonky bitch(0+ / 0-)

Fine job it was fun watching

Who is John Galt? An ASSHOLE, thats who

• ##### Omedetou gozaimasu, Markos-san! Congratulations!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Hartelijk gefeliciteerd!

Well done!

The Dutch kids' chorus Kinderen voor Kinderen wishes all the world's children freedom from hunger, ignorance, and war.

• ##### As Colbert would say, "A tip of the hat,(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

and the wag of a finger." I was still bogged down by the 1994 election, as it was so disastrous, and failed to keep up with demographics, even though the country chose its first African American president in 2008. I thought that any Democrat could beat a Rethug, after the Bush disaster. So, I was wrong, and gladly so. Now, on to 2014! Let's target Graham and all the other asshats, as well as seats in the House that should be winnable. P.S. Please let's keep Kerry in the Senate. Don't want Scott to get a vacant seat, for sure.

I think, therefore I am. I think.

• ##### Congrats on the huge props..(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Love ya Markos! You've been spot on since 2008 and this community is the best on the web. I may be too timid to be a frequent diarist but I like to add my 2 cents worth now and then. BTW, The America Taliban is one of the best books I've read this year. What's so frightening is how well it describes my own mother and some of my other relatives. My son has had the extremely exasperating experience
of living with her the last 4 mos and hearing her and faux news spout off constantly. Sadly, this election has not brought her back to reality.
Thanks for being so awesome!

• ##### Kudos, Markos. Contribution made.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic

Congratulations on turning this site into one of the premiere sources of solid, progressive journalism and opinion.

As far as poll accuracy is concerned, nicely done. Regarding Silver, his most impressive forecast was not the one made in the days leading up to the election but the very first one he made on May 31.  He was within a 1/2% for each candidate. Unbelievable.  It's one thing to take a sober look at the polls but polls had little to do with that first one.  If that formula works again, it would be really quite extraordinary.

• ##### Sam Wang(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Onomastic, Rita in DC

Let's not overlook Sam Wang at Princeton.  He did some nice prognosticating on 'election.princeton.edu'

• ##### Why did you know all the answers?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Rita in DC

Tell me why oh why
Just be Kos, because
because be Kos
good bye, good bye.

"Now, people ask me all the time how we got four surplus budgets in a row. What new ideas did we bring to Washington? I always give a one-word answer: Arithmetic. " Bill Clinton

• ##### after Woody Guthrie, IIRC (n/t)(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Amayupta yo
• ##### Sang Woody's' Why O Why' to my son(0+ / 0-)

it just seemed right.

"Now, people ask me all the time how we got four surplus budgets in a row. What new ideas did we bring to Washington? I always give a one-word answer: Arithmetic. " Bill Clinton

[ Parent ]

• ##### Yo, Markos -- spelling glitch(0+ / 0-)
I was happy enough to be in that rarified air,
Rarefied.

It's a common mistake, though.

• ##### It can be properly spelled either way(0+ / 0-)

unless you use it in the verbal form to mean to: make more complex, intricate, or rich.  In that case Markos' spelling is correct.

"Now, people ask me all the time how we got four surplus budgets in a row. What new ideas did we bring to Washington? I always give a one-word answer: Arithmetic. " Bill Clinton

[ Parent ]

• ##### It's an adjective here, & Markos' spelling(0+ / 0-)

isn't the preferred one. That's per authoritative dictionaries of American usage online, as opposed to random dictionary websites.

I admit, though, that I didn't know that his spelling was a secondary spelling or variant.

• ##### Congrats, Markos(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

and thank you!

Great job -- I was here every day :)

Reality has a well-known liberal bias -- Stephen Colbert

• ##### I don't understand. Nate gave a 50.3 probability (0+ / 0-)

of an Obama win and gave a light blue shade on his map, and then he projected a tie.
Don't those statistics contradict each other?