Actually, the title is a lie. I voted, did phonebanking, and even drove a long way to a neighboring Red state to do GOTV, for all the good it did. But in Kos's Diary today named
"More Accurate Than Nate Silver"
-- a deservedly crowing one, with props to Nate Silver and Drew Lizner for their almost-as-close election predictions, there is a thread that IMHO bears close attention. Minerva comments:
Worried about one possible implication (2+ / 0-)
What happens next time when DailyKos or 538 forecasts a narrow Dem win?
Since the pros have showed they can nail it with polling science, do marginal voters then decide they don't have to bother with turning out?
I'm not a marginal voter (I may be marginal in some ways, however I ALWAYS vote). And I'm not so concerned with "forecasts (of) a
narrow Dem win." But although it's unpleasant to face and admit, there is probably some prediction level of "our" success that would have made it less likely for me to do MORE than voting (phonebanking, GOTV, and so on).
How about you? If reality-based predictions, from reputable sources, of Obama and other Dem likelihoods in your state/county/city of winning reached 98%, or 95%, or 99.9%, or 99.99% -- would that have affected what you'd do before and on election day?
Is it a slippery slope? Would some of us hold back at 85%? Or 89%? I think Minerva makes a really important point. One worth exploring. So look into your own soul (or, for those of us who are atheists, your innermost thoughts), and take the poll below.
With best regards
from
Lurker Since '03
3:46 PM PT: Update: As I said in a comment on Kos's "Better Than Nate Silver" post:
Again, sorry to disagree.
But if you look at the poll:
Of the 36 respondents:
If the polling indicated a 99% chance of success:
8% "Would vote, but nothing (i.e. GOTV) else"
22% "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
55%< "Would vote, GOTV, everything I'd do if we were losing"
If the polling indicated a 95% chance of success:
2% "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
and
If the polling indicated a 90% chance of success:
2% "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
Well, we'd lose 8% of potential GOTV'ers. Not too bad. But Remember: These are Kossacks who are involved enough to read an admittedly minor-league diary and take the poll. Even amongst ourselves, a significant percentage say that they would slack off on GOTV to some extent if the polls looked really good.
What would this poll look like, if Dem voters with "an average level of interest and commitment" took it?