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9:42 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: Virginia appears to be one of the few states in the nation which actually makes presidential results by congressional district available from an official source, which you can find at the link. I will caution, though, that pres-by-CD data published by the legislature following redistricting turned out to be wrong. This data should hopefully be more accurate (and it comes from a different source, the State Board of Elections). Note, though, that there are still a few precincts outstanding in most CDs, but if these numbers are correct, they should be very close to the final tallies. (Hat-tip: telephasic and Johnny Longtorso)

10:27 AM PT: NC-07: We finally have an updated vote count in NC-07, where Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre now reportedly has a 483-vote lead over Republican David Rouzer, up from 420 previously. The SBOE still shows a 420-vote edge, but counties have been completing their individual canvasses and this new total reflects those final numbers from two jurisdictions. The remaining counties will complete their official counts on Thursday, and results are expected to be certified Friday. At that point, Rouzer (who will very likely still be trailing by then) will have to decide whether to seek a recount. The law allows for one, but four or five hundred votes are a lot to make up.

10:39 AM PT: Newly-elected members of the 113th Congress are in Washington, DC this week for their first orientation program. That includes the biannual tradition of the class photo:

113th Congress freshman class
(click for larger)
If you'd like to learn more about our newest representatives, the National Journal has a terrific interactive feature you can explore.

11:22 AM PT: TN-04: I have no words:

A decade before calling himself "a consistent supporter of pro-life values," Tennessee physician and Republican U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais supported his ex-wife's decision to get two abortions before their marriage, according to the congressman's sworn testimony during his divorce trial.

Obtained by the Chattanooga Times Free Press, the couple's 2001 trial transcript also confirms DesJarlais had sexual relationships with at least two patients, three coworkers and a drug representative while he was chief of staff at Grandview Medical Center in Jasper, Tenn. During one affair with a female patient, DesJarlais prescribed her drugs, gave her an $875 watch and bought her a plane ticket to Las Vegas, records show.

Man. If this stuff had come out before election day, Eric Stewart might have pulled off an extraordinary upset. As it was, he widely outperformed the 4th District's incredibly conservative lean and lost by "only" 11 points. (The seat probably went for Mitt Romney by over 30.) But while that's all in the past, DesJarlais certainly has his future to worry about—a future which is now sure to include a serious challenge in the GOP primary. I wouldn't be surprised at all if DesJarlais didn't seek a third term, and I wouldn't even be surprised if he resigned over this.

Oh, and there's much more at the link.

11:32 AM PT: And wow, you can also find the entire 679-page transcript here.

11:40 AM PT: NY-27: Hahah!

12:13 PM PT: WATN?: You may recall Annette Taddeo from her run against GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the old FL-18 in 2008, and you might all remember she was mentioned as a possible candidate against soon-to-be-ex-Rep. David Rivera, who just lost to Joe Garcia in the new FL-26. Now Taddeo's seeking to become chair of the Florida Democratic Party, since outgoing chair Rod Smith (whose term ends in January) is not standing for re-election.

12:43 PM PT: PA-Gov: Quinnipiac's new poll of Pennsylvania unfortunately doesn't test any head-to-heads against GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, who's up for re-election in 2014, but they do have new job approval numbers for him. His ratings have shot up to 40-38, from a miserable 35-50 (his all-time low) over the summer. Quinnipiac thinks that Corbett's response to Hurricane Sandy (which earns him positive marks on a separate question) may have helped his overall ratings. But Sandy didn't have nearly the impact in PA as it did in NY and NJ, so I have to wonder if that bump will fade.

There's also a new Democratic name in the mix: John Hanger, who served as head of ex-Gov. Ed Rendell's Dept. of Environmental Protection, says he's "seriously looking at running." Hanger says he wouldn't take the plunge, though, if Rendell (who was termed out in 2010) wanted to take another go at things, or if newly-reelected Sen. Bob Casey decides to seek his dad's old job.

Oh, and for the sake of completeness, there's one other person who gets constantly mentioned but whose intentions, as ever, remain a mystery: ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, the honey badger of Pennsylvania politics.

1:01 PM PT (David Jarman): CA-St. Asm.: Gentlemen, start your taxing! It took more than a week of counting, but the Democratic supermajorities in the California legislature are finally a done deal. The last two close races in the California Assembly, necessary to get over the 2/3rds mark, were finally called in the last few days. First was AD-32 in the Central Valley, where Dem Rudy Salas defeated GOPer Pedro Rios; this was followed on Thursday by the call in Orange County's AD-65, where Dem Sharon Quirk-Silva defeated incumbent GOPer Chris Norby (the latest count put her ahead by 3,348 votes).

1:04 PM PT: AZ-02: As you know if you've been following the overtime race in Arizona's 2nd District, Dem Rep. Ron Barber's lead over Republican Martha McSally has been bouncing around—it now stands at 923, as of this writing. But the more important point, as Taniel observes, is that conservative Cochise County has finished counting. That means any remaining ballots are in blue-tilting Pima (which accounts for over 80 percent of the district's population). And that means things are looking particularly hopeless for McSally.

1:55 PM PT: Libertarians: As we've perused last week's election returns, we'd noticed a number of races where Libertarian candidates appear to have played spoiler for Republicans—certainly, more than we're accustomed to. While we haven't run a comparison with prior cycles, we've identified no fewer than nine contests in 2012 where the Libertarian received more votes than the difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates. What's more, none of these involved the typical 1 or maybe 2 percent you ordinarily expect a Lib to garner: Looking at the three-way vote, all but one were over 3 percent, and three took 6 percent or more, with a high of 6.5 percent in the Montana Senate race. These definitely seem like unusually high figures.

So what's going on here? I wouldn't want to speculate too much based on this limited data set. But I could easily believe that a growing proportion of conservative-leaning voters are too disgusted with the GOP to pull the Republican lever, but who won't vote for Democrats either, are choosing a third option and going Libertarian instead. This thesis  dovetails with something else we saw this year: independents generally leaning more rightward simply because at least some former Republicans are now refusing to identify with their old party. It's not much of a stretch to imagine that some folks like that don't want to vote for their old party either.

The chart below summarizes our findings. (Note that MI-11 refers to the unexpired term for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's seat, not the full-two year term that starts in January.) It's too facile to say that without the Lib, every Democrat would have lost. But some very likely would have, so it's reasonable to conclude that the Libertarian Party gifted quite a few seats to Team Blue this year. Thanks, friends!

Race Dem Votes GOP Votes Lib Votes (L) % (D) - (R) Margin
IN-Sen Donnelly 1,268,407 Mourdock 1,126,832 Horning 146,453 5.8% 141,575 -4,878
MT-Sen Tester 234,465 Rehberg 215,701 Cox 31,287 6.5% 18,764 -12,523
MT-Gov Bullock 234,980 Hill 226,555 Vandevender 17,729 3.7% 8,425 -9,304
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick 117,422 Paton 109,508 Allen 14,450 6.0% 7,914 -6,536
AZ-09 Sinema 108,056 Parker 101,089 Gammill 14,361 6.4% 6,967 -7,394
MA-06 Tierney 179,603 Tisei 175,953 Fishman 16,668 4.5% 3,650 -13,018
MI-11 Curson 159,267 Bentivolio 151,740 Tatar 11,611 3.6% 7,527 -4,084
NH-01 Shea-Porter 171,356 Guinta 158,482 Kelly 14,968 4.3% 12,874 -2,094
UT-04 Matheson 108,275 Love 105,629 Vein 5,703 2.6% 2,646 -3,057

2:48 PM PT: Incidentally, here's a list of other races where a third party also played a possible role in the opposite direction. The party or parties taking more votes than the difference between the first- and second-place finishers are listed after each race. First up, Republican wins:

AZ-Sen: Libertarian
NV-Sen: "None of the above" and Independent American Party
IN-Gov: Libertarian
CO-06: Libertarian and an independent
IL-13: An independent
IN-02: Libertarian
MI-01: Libertarian and Green
And Democratic wins:
MI-11: U.S. Taxpayers (in addition to Libertarian in chart above)
NY-24: Green
It's hard to imagine the Libertarians helping Republicans in IN-Gov, CO-06, IN-02, and MI-01, just like it's hard to imagine the Green Party helping Democrats in NY-24. However, it's not inconceivable that the Green hurt Dems in MI-01, though that may have been balanced out by the Lib (who got more votes). Something similar may have happened in CO-06 as well. IL-13 is harder to read, and Nevada's unique "none of the above" option is a real scrambler, though the IAP is decidedly right-wing. So is the U.S. Taxpayers party in MI-11, but as we noted, there was also a Libertarian there as well.

3:04 PM PT: FL-18: A judge in St. Lucie County has scheduled a hearing for Friday afternoon regarding GOP Rep. Allen West's insistence that all early eight days of early voting in the county be counted a second time, not just the partial set of three days that was already retabulated. The county must certify its results on Sunday, and the state will do the same on Tuesday, so time is running short (though presumably the judge could extend the deadlines if need be).

Meanwhile, West is saying nope, he won't move back to his home state of Georgia to run for office there, after the state Republican chair invited him to do so. West said he's moved around too much as a military guy and that his wife wanted to retire to Florida, so that's where he'll stay.

3:11 PM PT: TX-15: Dem Rep. Ruben Hinojosa was just elected to take over the Congressional Hispanic Caucus from fellow Texan Charlie Gonzalez, who is retiring from Congress. We mention this because there had been some retirement speculation last cycle regarding the 72-year-old Hinojosa, mostly because his family has been mired in financial troubles. He also experienced a disconcerting moment a few weeks ago when, at a debate, he said: "I’m drawing a blank on the Second Amendment, but I think it's the weapons, isn't it? The NRA?" Presumably, though, his ascension to the top of the CHC means he plans to stick around.

3:17 PM PT: Polltopia: If you want to check out a bunch of amusing, half-hearted mea culpas from pollsters whose numbers and/or prejudices this year were far too friendly toward Republicans, check out the quotes gathered up by NPR at the link. There's some good stuff there, from the likes of known problem children such as David Paleologos (Suffolk) and Brad Coker (Mason-Dixon), as well as Harry Wilson, from the less-scrutinized but just-as-culpable Roanoke College. Wilson makes the most fulsome admission, saying: "I was drinking that Republican Kool-Aid."

3:25 PM PT: KY-Sen: Ordinarily, I wouldn't care much about the head of EMILY's List saying she likes the idea of an Ashley Judd candidacy in Kentucky, but I was a little surprised to see Stephanie Schriock reveal that she'd "had some initial conversations" with Judd about running against GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell. I doubt anything will come of it, but this at least is a bit further along than the usual celebrity speculation. (Tommy Lee Jones for TX-Sen, anyone?) Still, I suspect the idea of a Judd run is likely still-born, given her opposition to mountain-top coal-mining and the fact that she currently lives in Tennessee.

3:33 PM PT: NC-LG: Probably the highest-level uncalled race left in the land is for lieutenant governor in North Carolina, where Democrat Linda Coleman trails Republican Dan Forest by 10,300 votes. As with NC-07 (see above), results should be finalized on Friday. A key difference, though: Coleman needs to get that margin down to 10,000 in order to seek a recount, since state law allows for one only if the spread is 0.5 percent or 10K—whichever is less. In this case, Coleman is behind by about a quarter of a percent, so it's the 10K threshold which is the sticking point. She's engaged in some legal wrangling over uncounted ballots to try to alter the calculus, but even if she somehow does get into recount territory, it's hard to imagine altering the result when the margin is that large.

3:38 PM PT: CA-07: This one is game over for incumbent Republican Dan Lungren. With the latest batch of votes from Sacramento County, Democrat Ami Bera is now leading Lungren by 5,696, having captured more than 54.7 percent of the almost 20,000 votes counted since the last update. That brings the number of ballots outstanding to the 20,000-25,000 range; even assuming (generously) 25,000 votes left to be counted, Lungren would need more than 61% of them. That's not going to happen. Bera's statement following this update is his most optimistic to date: "Our lead continues to widen and we are confident that this election will be resolved in our favor." Indeed.

4:01 PM PT: MD-Gov: State Del. Heather Mizeur says she's "taking a very serious look" at a run for governor in 2014, when Gov. Martin O'Malley will be term-limited out. Given the other big Democratic names looking to succeed MO'M, though, Mizeur may actually be making a play for LG—something she denies. But Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown is an almost sure bet to run (he already has O'Malley's support), and he's term-limited as well anyway, so his seat will be open. Other big names who might run include AG Doug Gansler, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman.

4:04 PM PT: PoliticsPA also goes through the Great Mentioner routine and handicaps just about every conceivable name, both Democrat and Republican, who could go up against Corbett.

4:45 PM PT: Prediction Models: Polling averages often don't predict the election margin correctly, even if they do predict the winner. Usually, they underestimate the Democrat's performance in blue states, and underestimate the Republican's performance in red states. We can attempt to correct for this by simply adding a number to the polling average margin in each state based on how "red" or "blue" each state is. This simple model, developed by Daily Kos Elections' dreaminonempty, was successful: It resulted in predictions that, on average, were indeed more accurate than the polling averages alone—and, surprisingly, more accurate than Nate Silver's predictions as well. Click through for dreamin's full explanation of the results.

4:58 PM PT: CA-52: As of Thursday evening, Democrat Scott Peters now leads incumbent GOPer Brian Bilbray by 3,877 votes, an increase of 929 votes from before. These late-counted ballots have been particularly friendly to Peters, who got 54.3 percent of the 11,000 just added in the last batch. The San Diego County Registrar is estimating 120,000 ballots outstanding countywide, which means about 30,000 in CA-52. Under that assumption, Bilbray's magic number is now 56.4 percent. For reference, Mary Bono Mack's magic number in CA-36 was almost 59 percent when she conceded to Raul Ruiz. Peters isn't sitting as pretty as Ruiz was just yet, but if the trend continues, another update or two will get him there.

6:26 PM PT: CA-07: That's a wrap, folks! The AP has now called CA-07 for Democrat Ami Bera, who defeats GOP Rep. Dan Lungren.

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Comment Preferences

  •  OFA Ain't Going Away, So YAY YAY YAY? (4+ / 0-)

    Is this a good or bad thing?

    If the goal is to keep people motivated on the issues and to do things like voter registration so that, in the words of the RBC, 2014 looks more like 2010, I think it's a good thing. I know there was a discussion yesterday about DFA and how it was poorly integrated into the overall party structure, but this seems like a good thing. It doesn't mean the traditional  organizing and mobilizing goes away, only that there's a more formal and previously successful group doing what a bunch of more random efforts usually try to do...right?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:19:30 AM PST

  •  Maine GOP chair: I see black people (26+ / 0-)
    Outgoing Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster plans to investigate claims that “dozens of black people” who were unfamiliar to municipal officials voted Nov. 6 in rural Maine towns.

    . . . .

    “In some parts of the state, there were dozens of black people who came in to vote,” Webster said. “Nobody in town knew them.”

    http://bangordailynews.com/...

    On no!  Black people are roaming rural Maine in desperate search of a voting booth.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:25:01 AM PST

  •  Count Gov. Patrick out of Cabinet spot - (7+ / 0-)
    Governor Deval Patrick said today he would not resign his current office to become US attorney general for President Obama’s second term.

    “No,” the governor told the Globe when asked the question after he participated in a forum for an audience of Boston business leaders.

    “I like what I do, and I have more that I want to accomplish in the next two years,” Patrick added. “And then I promised [my wife] Diane that I’d go back into the private sector, and I’m going to keep that promise.”

    http://www.boston.com/...

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:53:52 AM PST

  •  AZ-02 (11+ / 0-)

    Cross your fingers, Barber's gonna win
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Cochise county done counting. and barber leads. Whew! But I won't feel relaxed until countings done

    Still, I miss Gabby...

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

    by biscobosco on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:22:03 AM PST

    •  It's really over at this point (5+ / 0-)

      McSally's only hope was for a massive win in Cochise, and now they're done. There is no path to victory remaining for McSally.

    •  Can she call for a recount if Pima doesn't pad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      biscobosco, MichaelNY

      Barber's lead by much?  Not that it seems the GOP would be profoundly interested in that at this point.  

      •  Not without extensive legal wrangling and expense (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        AZ law, auto recount  is only in .1%  margin races.

        Exceptions:

        Arizona vote contest procedures

        There are no specific contest procedures in the Arizona code for federal elections. A voter may contest an election for a state or local office on the following grounds:

        misconduct on the part of election boards or any members, or on the part of any officer making or participating in a canvass for a state election;
        ineligibility of the person elected to the office; (3) offenses against the elective franchise committed by the person elected; # illegal votes; or
        an erroneous count of votes such that the person declared elected did not in fact receive the number of votes sufficient to carry the election. § 16-672. The contest regarding state office elections may be brought in the superior court in which the contestor resides or in Maricopa County, and must be filed within five days of the completion of the canvass.[6] The contest
        regardi

        She would need some strong case for misconduct.  Her team already tried to contest a set of provisionals in Cochise (some of which were in a heavily dem precinct) but got smacked down.

        "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

        by biscobosco on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:49:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The 2000/2006/2012 Senate elections (12+ / 0-)

    Anyone else find it amazing that Democrats have picked up multiple seats in the same class of Senators for three consecutive elections?  Dems picked up 4 Senate seats in 2000, 6 seats in 2006 and 2 seats in 2012 for a net swing of 12 seats in that class of Senators.  

    And in the class of Senators last elected in 2004 and 2010 the GOP netted 10 seats.

    As a result Dems have to defend 20 seats in 2014 to only 13 GOP seats.  And in 2016 the GOP has to defend 24 seats versus only 10 for Dems.

    •  as someone who has been weary of king (6+ / 0-)

      that's nice to hear. i hope someone asks collins what she thinks.

      •  Moderation (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, bear83, MichaelNY

        Hunch: she can't go along in the republican craziness the next two years or she'd lose in 2014? I am amazed on how popular she and Snowe are in the state (even with the dems!)

        •  Yeah, I think having a Senator (7+ / 0-)

          who is actually in line with the state's values will do a great job of showing Mainers that Collins isn't.

        •  Is she tired of the process? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I can only hope that's the case or will be by the time 2014 rolls around.

          If not, she's essentially unbeatable then, right?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:10:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'd like to believe she's vulnerable too, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but then I remember how, in the best possible environment for us, she dispatched Tom Allen with utter ease. Who in the Maine Democratic bench could outperform Allen by enough to make a difference? I defy someone to aswer that for me.

          Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

          by Zutroy on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:53:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You have to wonder (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            whether an extensive process of steadily attacking her would help. Or is that being done already?

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:20:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Attack her on what? (0+ / 0-)

              I know there are votes here and there where she reveals the GOP hackery inherent in her, but they are just that---little votes. They're the kinds of things that motivate Democrats and progressives far more than they would politically unaligned Mainers, and pouring money into hammering away at them would have limited and immediately diminishing returns at best.

              The fact is, as demonstrated by how much money Karl Rove screwed away, the size of the attack matters much less than the subject. If it's something that's gonna swing people like Collins being a crook (and I mean a real crook, not some distant connection to some shady property deal or something), then we could hammer away on it. If it's her existing record, we got nothing. Hate to sound pessimistic, but that's how it looks.

              Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

              by Zutroy on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:30:10 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Attack her on anything (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that will slowly but surely erode her popularity. Basically, the same strategy that the Republicans tried with Obama, only more substantive and, you know, not insane. I'm not saying it will work, only that it might be worth a shot.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:38:13 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Here's the thing; (0+ / 0-)
                  Basically, the same strategy that the Republicans tried with Obama,
                  That failed miserably.
                  only more substantive and, you know, not insane.
                  What's there that's substantive? This is what I was just explaining. There's no big scandals with Collins, just chicken feed like votes that aren't that bipartisan. I'm telling you, that isn't gonna move poll numbers. Considering the expense---and the example Karl Rove just set in that regard---I'd think it's not so worth it.

                  Frankly, I don't know why people consider Collins so potentially vulnerable. I think people here generally overestimate Maine's ability to elect Democrats based on how they go presidentially. Tom Allen getting shellacked in 2008 proved otherwise, and there are much more plausible pick-up opportunities than Collins. McConnell, for example, has always had approvals in the shitter, and low turnout works in our favor in red states, plus Democrats have a huge bench in Kentucky. Another one would be Cornyn, whose approvals are middling and could be made to sweat if Castro ran against him.

                  Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

                  by Zutroy on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:53:08 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I happen to think (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    part of the reasons Republicans failed so miserably in their criticisms of Obama was that they included some nonsensical garbage in with legitimate ones. (Remember Andy Card's bitching that some people didn't wear their suit jackets in the Oval Office because Obama liked it hotter than they were used to?) By "substantive," I meant more meaningful than large in scale. Don't attack her for using a poor choice of words, but, say, complain loudly in the press again again and again that she hasn't specifically offered up ideas about jobs or when she doesn't publicly distance herself from the absurdity coming from House or Senate Republicans. It might be pointless, but the goal is to try to slowly erase her halo.

                    Would something like this really take that much effort?

                    As far as pick up opportunities, I think it's more about how few we have and how Maine, which is usually blue, looks relatively plausible. I agree that Kentucky and Texas (along with Georgia and South Carolina) should be focused on, but none look at that good. It's basically the least shitty out of our shitty options.

                    That said, the worst thing that happens is that we lose. That looks more likely than not now, but why not try to use this as a warm up for the future? Let's find a good candidate, have them run a positive campaign and have them establish a good if weak relationship with the state. Then, in the future, this person can run and hopefully win.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:12:40 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Dems just got obliterated in Appalachia last week. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

                    And Texas is not yet competitive; the voting tendencies are very rigid there - Cruz and Romney were within 1% of each other, as were Cornyn and McCain in 2008.

                    Never say never, but it goes to show how bad our map is that Kentucky and Texas are in our first tier of pickup opportunities in 2014.

          •  She is vulnerable on the right not the left (0+ / 0-)

            Seriously she voted for the Stimulus if she's doomed it will be by the tea party

            We only think nothing goes without saying.

            by Hamtree on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:24:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's still Maine (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, MichaelNY

              and Paul LePage aside, really not Tea Party country. It'd be extremely hard to primary a moderate R incumbent there, especially after Lugar.

              Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

              by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:38:53 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  We'll see if the primarying threat is still there (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson, bumiputera, MichaelNY

              in 2014. I've yet to see such a primary upset in New England (in 2010, Lamontagne was the tea party choice, and she couldn't beat the more moderate Ayotte in the primary), plus I've yet to see any poll numbers showing Collins being in danger from the right. Besides, all state Republican parties aren't uniformly conservative.

              Now, the other thing is the Maine GOP bench is larger than it was. Having the legislature for a couple of years gave them a bunch of statewide offices, and that particular legislature was fueled by the tea party to an extent, so we may see some of those people challenge Collins. Thing is, Collins isn't Lugar, and watching Hatch survive shows me that tea party challengers aren;t all-powerful.

              Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

              by Zutroy on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:41:24 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Do you think Snowe would have lost a primary? (0+ / 0-)

              There was polling showing that she was likely to win one, especially after LePage endorsed her.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:48:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  This is going to be great for us (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skipos, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

        Susan Collins doesn't have Olympia Snowe to fall back on any more.  Even if Angus King turns into a Lieberdem she is going to have to start changing her votes on some key issues in order not to look like a "typical Republican" by comparison.

        •  Look at his positions on issues (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          I don't see much possibility that he'll be like Lieberman. His independence is more a personality trait than a matter of being some kind of neo-conservative or friend of the Buckleys, like Lieberman is.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:49:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Collins needs more time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't have a link but I think I saw a clip of her saying there are more questions about Rice she needs answers before she would support Rice

    •  Notice he said "the other party" (10+ / 0-)

      Suggests more of an identification with Democrats than he's let on so far -- and that his choice of caucus may not simply have been a temporary thing.

      •  Oh, he obviously clicks with Dems. (0+ / 0-)

        He was a staffer for Sen. Hathaway back in the 70s. In fact, go to YouTube and look up King's victory speech to see how he mocked Karl Rove.

        The thing is, hes serious about this independent schtick he puts on, and based on how he governed, I wouldn't put it past him to bail on us and try to be a free agent if we lose 5 seats in 2014. He even said that he wouldn't rule out trying to caucus with them if such a thing happens---although it's obvious that he has nothing in common with national Republicans.

        Believe me, it's irritating, especially when you know where he should be based on his views and history. He's been serrious about his independent act for decades, and I don't see why he would break it just to help us when we're in need. He's a fair weather friend, and a loose ball bearing rolling around DC. Trust me when I say he'll be giving us all headaches soon enough.

        Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

        by Zutroy on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:01:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  King has always been a liberal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, MichaelNY

        And a Democrat in disguise. The paranoia that he wouldn't caucus with the Dems was quite ill-founded.

    •  And he framed it right as well... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, KingofSpades, MBishop1, MichaelNY

      She was just saying what she had been briefed on by intelligence - which it's generally accepted as the same briefing congress all got.  

      McCain and Graham are making something out of nothing and I don't understand why they decided to pick this fight.  Do they expect Lieberman to get the gig or something?

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:43:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCain and Graham (6+ / 0-)

        Live for making pointless fights.

        •  I've heard McCain's considering (5+ / 0-)

          suspending his 2016 campaign extra super early because he considers this issue to be so important, he can't focus on anything else, nor read a few blog posts like this that explain what happened, much like he couldn't read a three-page briefing on the financial crisis in 2008. That's a maverick for you.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:13:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, Graham gets to make a stink over (5+ / 0-)

        a Fox News Issue while simultaneously opposing a black Obama appointee, which can't hurt his chances in a South Carolina republican primary. And McCain is, as he has always been, a neocon loon.

        •  Sure, but it's a fight he'll lose. (0+ / 0-)

          If he wants to look tough - pick a fight he knows he'll win.  

          They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

          by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:38:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is he losing this fight? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:42:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He will (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              if he can't keep 40 Republican senators on board with him (or maybe 38-9 if we lose 1-2 Dems). That means he can't afford to lose even 6 of his colleagues. I think that's a tall order.

              •  What's his ultimate goal, though? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Unless there's actually something to this, which to put it charitably does not appear to be the case, he has to know he's blowing smoke. And why do this? It's not as if he's Richard Lugar or someone with a no nonsense, respectable reputation. If he becomes really unhinged, that's one thing, but if not, he can always fall back on some lame excuse, which will eaten up by the base that will believe anything negative about Obama. And call me crazy, but I doubt South Carolinians give a rat's ass what the Beltway media thinks. If he survives his possible primary challenge, which he very well might over this (and other things, too, most likely), he will probably win.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:59:39 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  They picked the fight (0+ / 0-)

        because they have big egos and have different reasons for wanting to be gadflies toward President Obama - McCain because he's a bitter dick, and Graham because he still thinks he has a chance to avoid losing a Republican primary for reelection that way.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:51:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I never really got this. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:55:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  even Lieberman>Snowe or Collins (6+ / 0-)

      for all of the complaints about Lieberman's posturing on ACA, Iraq War, etc, we must remember that he voted for Reid for majority leader and he voted with the Democrats more often than Snowe or Collins.

      For those worried about Senator King becoming the next Lieberman, even if that turns out to be true, we're happy to have him because it's still a much better scenario than another Collins or Snowe. And of course, Summers wasn't even going to be as moderate as Collins or Snowe

  •  So the CA SoS website hasn't updated CA-52 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, hankmeister, MichaelNY

    but it seems like the SD County website has.  Peters' lead has expanded to 2,948, up from 2,660 the day before.  With 258K votes already counted, furthermore, it's liable that there are maybe only 30-35K votes outstanding based on historical performance in the district.  That actually means Bilbray would need north of 55% of the remaining vote to win (58.4% most likely).  Since the past week hasn't actually seen a day where Peters' lead hasn't expanded, that is a sobering thought for our Congressman-turn-lobbyist-turn-carpetbagger Congressman.

  •  Japan 2012 (6+ / 0-)

    Like scapelcovits mentioned in this mornings thread, Japan will be holding elections. These elections are illegal.

    The Supreme Court declared the current district lines illegal (because of wildly varying population in the various districts due to gerrymandering.) Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda called a snap election anyways. So the Japanese parliament is about to go from dysfunctional and corrupt, to dysfunctional, corrupt, and illegitimate.

    If the Supreme Court had any backbone they'd invalidate the results, but I doubt it (in Japan the Supreme Court is, for all intents and purposes, a figurehead body full of spineless cads. They'll probably just say something along the lines of "yes, it's illegal, and shame on all of you, but no, we don't care enough to do anything about it.)

    Why is Noda doing this? Because his party is very unpopular. Yes, he's calling an election because his party is historically unpopular, his cabinets approval ratings are in the teens, and his party probably won't even be the second largest party. Yes, he wants to kill his own party. Noda's party, the Democratic Party of Japan, is an ideologically broad party meant to encompass everybody not in Japan's natural party of power (The Liberal Democratic Party, which is neither liberal nor democratic.) Noda has become convinced that the only way he can "save" his party (who's poll numbers are at about 12%, from 47% last election) is to kick all the non-reformist (non-reformist = left-wing) elements out of the party and turn the DJP into a rump centrist party ready to join a conservative coalition, which will be, ironically, led by the LDP.

    So Shinzo Abe (recently elected leader of the LDP by party bosses, despite rank-and-file members voting for a different leader) a far-right former prime minister who had a literal mental breakdown the last time he was prime minister, is about to become prime minister with the help of the center-left. (!)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:43:22 AM PST

    •  Had trouble following that. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      Still makes more sense than New York state politics.  (Do you think there's someone on a Japanese election geek blog trying to explain the whole Cuomo/IDC/Felder situation?)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:41:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More prosaically (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Noda does not have a majority in the Upper House and needed the LDP votes for his signature VAT hike (which he gets little credit for even though he succeeded where many of his predecessors had failed). In exchange for voting it through, they extorted a promise from him to dissolve the Diet "soon". He already managed to push it longer than he should but the LDP was going to engineer a confidence vote at the first occasion (January) because they were getting furious.
      Add to that the fact his majority is only +8 and many dissidents were getting ready to leave the party (particularly over his announcement he wanted Japan to take part in the TPP free-trade talks) and he probably would have been voted down in January when the Diet had to reconvene anyway.
      You present it in a very charitable way for him but it wasn't really the courageous act of a man trying to save his party. He had no choice.

      •  Charitable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Perhaps, although I didn't think of it that way when I was writing it, since I don't approve of his decisions. About the election, what's notable is not that there will be an election, although most observers agreed he would hold out longer -- indeed, Noda after striking that deal denied he had promised an early dissolution (he had cleverly leaked this agreement by meeting with a single LDP member and then having relay the deal and then said it had been misinterpreted after the VAT had been raised.) And besides, he had reforming the electoral districts as an ace in the hole to delay the elections (all the minor parties would cooperate since the districts are rigged for the LDP and DJP.) He could have held out much longer. However that was under the apparently mistaken assumption Noda actually wanted to help his party electorally.

        Because while it's true that an early election was basically inevitable eventually, what's notable is that Noda, who was elected as PM as someone who wouldn't play factional politics, has decided to play factional politics, collude with LDP reformists, and essentially kill his own party and exile the left to have some sort of realignment along ideological lines to hopefully save himself a cabinet spot in the Abe's new government. That is very surprising indeed, and I am not charitably inclined toward him for doing it.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:00:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NMLib, gigantomachyusa, MichaelNY

      I hadn't realized there was gerrymandering going on...districts here don't split towns or, in the case of big cities, wards - so I think some population inequity is inevitable, a la West Virginia.

      that being said, I would say the Kyoto map is pretty clean, all things considering...(Kyoto city, in the central part of the prefecture, is sliced into bacon strips, but that's more due to ward borders than anything.)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:33:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Setsuna (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Your international elections post are just divine. Americans have very little knowledge of comparative politics abroad and even on this site there is a heavy emphasis on the happenings in Washington and the states (justified of course), so even forumers here can be a little unaware of international politics. Your posts are very cogent and eyeopening and I love reading them. Then again, I'm the kind of person who actually took a moment of election day to check on the results of the Presidential election in Palau lol. Keep up the good work!

      I do have a question though: I thought the SCof Japan wasn't only spineless and weak, but full of LDP rubber stamp stooges. What's their interest in not standing up to the Democratic Party of Japan?

      21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

      by gigantomachyusa on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:41:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Please review the Palau election results for us (0+ / 0-)

        I have the vague sense someone bad one, but am I right?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:59:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, the winning candidate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Tommy Remengesau has had a rather shady past and has been investigated multiple times for failure to disclose information of his land and other assets. He is a social conservative but an environmentalist at the same time and is otherwise a strong US ally (the coalition of the willing lives on!). The other candidate was better educated and had a much better track record but in a country as small as Palau, family ties and relationships matter so much so that Toribiong still lost. I'm also curious as to the effect of missionary work in Palau. The country has long been (and still is) a majority Catholic nation due to its proximity to missionaries in the Philippines. The evangelical church, Jehovah's witnesses, and the Mormons have rapidly changed the demographics though and I'd be shocked if Palau remained Catholic for more than 2 decades (if rising sea levels don't knock it then anyway). The rise of evangelicalism is having a large impact on many South Pacific nations politically and very few people realize that (like the fact that El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala are approaching majority Pentecostalism and Evangelicalism).

          21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

          by gigantomachyusa on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:51:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I really appreciate that. I also enjoyed your posts about Latin America, I think you enlightened a lot of people.

        To the SC/LDP, this election is what the LDP wanted. They passed the very unpopular consumption tax hike (mentioned above) specifically so they could have a new election; the LDP is expected to be returned to power (although the LDP and Abe both poll very poorly, it will be more by default than anything else) and the DJP will be sent to the verge of irrelevance (they're polling about 12% in the polls) in this election. Noda and Maehara are purposefully sabotaging their own party electorally in a dangerous game of factional politics (like I said, they want to bring the DJP back as a rump centrist party ready to join an LDP-led government.)

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:53:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not sure if the Supreme Court is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        pro-LDP or not, but if they are it makes sense they'd want this election to go ahead. the DPJ is screwed.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 05:40:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MD-Gov: Heather Mizeur eyeing a bid for Govenor. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, jj32, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Some think it's to put her into contention for Lt. Governor.

    http://www.washingtonblade.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:43:33 AM PST

    •  Against names like (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, DCCyclone

      Gansler, Franchot, and Brown, it would have to be. Conceivably she could get Emily's List and the Victory Fund to help her campaign, but I hope she doesn't, since she'll most likely only split the field and let Franchot through.

      I do hope she gets the lt. gov. spot though, as I like her. She seems to be a rising star in the left-wing of the party.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:49:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As the only woman and most liberal (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      there is definitely a path to victory for her in the primary.  Of course, as Setsuna points out it could also have the impact of letting the odious Peter Franchot win.  I say go for it for now, if the polling data looks bad then she can jump down to Lt. Gov.

  •  NC-Sen: Paula Broadwell (!) (12+ / 0-)

    had been considering whether to run (as a Republican):

    Broadwell had discussed her plans with "at least six new acquaintances at the Aspen conference. That evening, over drinks, she told a small group that she had been arguing with her mentor about the direction of her career. Republican moneymen, she said, had approached her about a Senate run in North Carolina. She was tempted. Petraeus, she said in an irritated tone, rejected the idea out of hand.
    http://politicalwire.com/...
  •  Mitt Romney: Obama used that dirty, dirty, tactic (14+ / 0-)

    of using government to help people. And since those same people actually turned out and voted for Obama, he basically cheated.

    Since anyone who isn't a white guy over the age of 50 isn't a real 'MURICAN!

    What a dick.

    •  That's just 47% all over again, but subtler. (8+ / 0-)

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:19:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Have you happened to read (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, James Allen

      any of the articles and blog posts that have come out in the past few days about Republicans and cities? Lots of interesting things to think about.

      To me at least, it seems like a no brainer that they need to compete here. In New York or California, it might not make a difference, but in Pennsylvania or North Carolina or even Illinois, it could. It's really just about cutting down on the margins. Getting to 25 percent instead of 14 percent Philadelphia County this year would have given him about 72,000 votes. (For what it's worth, Bush received about 18 percent of the vote in 2000 and about 19 percent in 2004 in this county, so it doesn't seem like a stretch.) It'll probably be harder to crack certain areas until their issues with nonwhites are worked out, but perhaps there's more of untapped white vote in some places than I think. Or perhaps just being there, asking for votes, and not really changing much else will help. I think it could.

      At the same time, you have to wonder why the same package of ideas will suddenly be so appealing if little is done besides changing the description. A lot of the aforementioned writing on this mentions a more thorough attack on education unions (because, apparently, they've been holding back?) and highlighting how, because people in cities are richer, marginal rate cuts for taxes could be even more worthwhile for them. I don't think the Republicans need to change everything about them to win, but some sort of change is probably necessary.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:26:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  People in cities, by and large, are not richer (3+ / 0-)

        Suburbs are where the Rich people live in general.

        •  Depends on the city and the type of people (0+ / 0-)

          that we're talking about, I think.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:00:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well Duh, it depends on the specifics. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            But show me a well-off city and I'll show you it's even richer suburb.

            Also, rich city dwellers are probably more liberal due to self-selection bias. I'd wager that on average, a city dweller is more liberal than a suburb dweller of similar SES.

            •  I'm trying to find (0+ / 0-)

              the article or blog post that described what I mentioned above, but I'm having no luck right now. I'll keep looking.

              Nevertheless, your implication is probably correct, but I wouldn't be surprised if certain people were more receptive to an argument about lower taxes. It would probably need to be paired with changes to the party platform, particularly on social issues, and it probably wouldn't be a huge voter getter no matter what. Still, it could be part of something that helps them.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:28:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  San Francisco... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

              Is richer than most of its suburbs at this point, although parts of Marin County are probably wealthier still.  

              •  For S.F. (3+ / 0-)

                I colored the metro area differently, using the overall distribution of household income: First was 0-25k, then 25-50k, then 50-75k, then 75-100k, and finally 100k+, so 5 colors.  Here's a closeup of the immediate Bay Area:

                I don't know if it's literally "richer than most of its suburbs", but it's certainly the biggest exception to the overall "lightest area is the central city" rule so far, unless you're counting lower Manhattan as the central city of NYC.

                (Fun fact: They did consider a municipal consolidation of parts of the Bay Area at some point, I think back when S.F. was run by a crooked political machine trying to expand.  Which may or may not be why NYC consolidated too.  Not sure.  Anyway.)

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:33:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Yes and no... (4+ / 0-)

          It is very dependent on the city.  Detroit, Buffalo and Cleveland and poor all over, except for a few very small gentrified areas.  New York has large areas of the city which are very wealthy, and even the "working class" areas are expensive.  Boston and Chicago have lots of high wealth areas (Beacon Hill, the West end of Boston, the North Side of Chicago) combined with much poorer districts (South Boston and the South Side of Chicago).

          Most big cities have a large population of wealthy folk along with a large population of very poor folk.  There isn't much of a middle class in urban areas.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:05:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Continuing... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            The main income group that support Republicans are the $60-$100K group (the people who think they are rich, even though they are far from it).  People in that range generally do not live in cities.  They are suburban voters by and large.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:10:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hmmm... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Where are you getting your figures from? I'm trying to think of the right comparisons here, and I am not sure I come up with any good ones.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:49:38 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Same exercise for some of the NYC area: (7+ / 0-)

            (The Census FactFinder map thing has its limits.)

            Putting aside "class vs. income" and so on, to my eye this suggests that yes, lower Manhattan is wealthy--but yes, most of NYC is poorer than most of its suburbs, except for the "suburbs" that are themselves cities.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:39:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Can do you these for Suffolk and Nassau? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, MichaelNY

              I think there's something to the argument that a relatively more socially liberal, fiscally conservative but saner Republican party might do well targeting some areas of cities. It's not a comprehensive strategy, and the person that made this argument (I think it was Ed Gleasar, assuming I am not hallucinating) didn't intend for it to be. But if you're looking to just add votes, it's not the worst idea ever to think you could target some of these people.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:14:03 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ok. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Here's the same idea, but for just Suffolk and Nassau.  

                Keep in mind that the color scheme is such that the lightest color tracts are in the lowest 1/7th of the map by MHI, so what that means depends on the overall selection.  (Which is statistically debatable, but best helps my point/captures what I'm trying to say.)

                In the broader NYC area, the five lightest colors meant:

                $8,600/$8,700 (I can't read it)-$32,000.
                $32,000-$42,000.
                $42,000-$52,000.
                $52,000-$62,000.
                $62,000-$77,000.

                In Nassau/Suffolk (which I didn't include for space in the broader NYC area), the three lightest colors meant:

                $28,000-$67,000.
                $67,000-$78,000.
                $78,000-$86,000.

                In other words, if I have this right: More than half of the census tracts in the immediate NYC area, as defined in the above post, have a MHI of under $62,000--an income that would fit in the bottom seventh of Suffolk/Nassau census tracts.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:41:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The darkest census tracts in the LI maps (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  have MHI around the range of $118,000-$230,000!

                  For what it's worth--it seems to me that some of the very richest parts of Nassau switched from Peter King's district to Steve Israel's, although I'm not sure.  But nearly all of this area is quite well-off, judging by MHI.

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:56:56 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  You can do it for anywhere in the US. (0+ / 0-)

                eom

                Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

                by hankmeister on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:01:09 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Remember that (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            while it's not the case, Matt, that "nobody lives in Manhattan", it is the case that "even in New York City the vast majority of people don't live in Manhattan".  

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:50:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You should have his job. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              I like him, but he's gotten far more irritating since he moved to Slate.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:57:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  This was supposed to be a compliment, by the way. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Xenocrypt, LordMike

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:08:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  And finally, before I kill this page entirely. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, Inoljt, MichaelNY

            Here is Greater Boston:


            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:59:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Carefully tweaked to make a point, but (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, dufffbeer, Inoljt, MichaelNY

          here are Philly-area census tracts colored by septile of median household income, with darker = richer:

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:11:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Can you do this for Austin? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:53:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sure. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Inoljt, MichaelNY

              As hankmeister says, so can you--I'm just using Census FactFinder.  But, I'm curious too.  Using the first definition of the metro area:

              The colors are (from lightest to darkest) median household incomes of:

              $6,737 - $3,4486
              $34,875 - $43,988
              $43,996 - $52,264
              $52,318 - $59,653
              $59,911 - $72,365
              $73,090 - $93,612
              $93,833 - $22,3098.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:14:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The Census FactFinder is so difficult to use (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                The interface is terrible so I gave up trying to make the maps after 5 minutes. Congrats on figuring out the labyrinthine process for making these maps!

                21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

                by gigantomachyusa on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:49:49 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  I can kindof see how the GOP might have thought... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...that they were winning PA.  Obama lost Bucks, Montgomery, and other Philly suburbs.  That SHOULD have killed us in the state, but it didn't 'cos of massive Philly and Pittsburgh turnout.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:12:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama won those two counties (4+ / 0-)

          plus Lehigh, Northampton, and Delaware.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:22:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  ??? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          We won Montgomery healthily and Bucks narrowly. The only Philly suburb county we lost was Chester.

          •  And we only lost Chester by a half a point. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY
            •  Which is amazing (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              There are some blood red Republican parts of Chester County.  I'm amazed at how Chester voted in 2012.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:42:04 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well the county still trended rather strongly (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                republican from 2008.

                •  So did oh so many places (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, MichaelNY

                  It's just not a fair comparison, and one frankly I wish people would stop doing.  

                  60-39 in 2008 to 56-42 in 2012, c'mon.  And Romney only gained 8,000 votes, Obama lost 23,000.  So it's not like there's a visible path for the GOP.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:54:59 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  This is where (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera, MichaelNY

                  the notion of "trending" gets annoying. There was a difference of about 15,000 votes from Obama's 2008 and 2012 totals, or about 5 points.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:55:12 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Statewide (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Obama lost 2.4 points from his own vote share, about in line with his national drop.  In Montgomery County, Obama dropped by 3.4 points, if Huffington Post is right.  That's not the biggest difference, but it's interesting.

                    Conversely, Obama actually improved on his 2008 vote share in Philadelphia, Delaware, and Lackawanna counties, while running about even in Delaware County.  Something different happened in those places than in Montgomery County (and Bucks County and Chester County), where Obama dropped by 3-4 points.  So I don't see why it's "silly" to notice that.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:47:57 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I just think it's easy to get (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      lost in comparisons.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:20:34 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  What happened... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      In Philadelphia and Delaware was clearly increased minority turnout.  I'm not so sure with Lackawanna, given it's historically been pretty lilly-white.  There has been increased Latino migration to Scranton recently, but it's a lot less than Allentown, Reading, or a lot of other smaller Eastern Pennsylvania cities.  

          •  And this goes to show you how (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            strong we are in Pennsylvania. If we can get them to a tie or something close to it in these counties at worst, I don't see how they come close to winning the state.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:52:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  They can't (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              You're exactly right.  Though i won't understand why the GOP insists they have a viable path, but I'll encourage them to try :-)

              Oh, and Philly and burbs are pretty much the only growing areas in the state, so the point gets more and more amplified.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:57:16 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Pennsylvania is one of the states (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                for which I'd like to try to create a plausible path forward for the GOP. I'm kind of reluctant to do much of anything for any state, though, until election results are finalized.

                Still, you have to wonder whether there's any way they could win it if they targeted it as strongly as OFA targeted Ohio. They'd have to do better in cities, primarily in Philly, but small increases can give them fairly large increases in total votes.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:06:46 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  yes (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  But small increases leading to large number of votes is kind of contradictory isn't it.  Sure moving % here and there moves a lot of voters in Philly (or statewide) but that's a lot of voters, which is kind of the point.  

                  The GOP can't make serious in-roads in Philadelphia Coutny, they simply have to drive down turnout or make the rest of the state's turnout that much higher.

                  But as we've seen in recent elections, you can't be down 400K votes between Philly/Pittsburgh, tie (or lose) MontCo and have a viable path to win.  The rest of the state may offer the vote potential to win still, but smaller counties like Erie, Lackawanna, etc are Dem so it's just not feasible for the GOP to win 65% of the vote outside Philly/Pittsburght/MontCo and carry the state.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:29:45 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, they'd go after those counties, too. (0+ / 0-)

                    I'm just playing around with the numbers, mostly in my head.

                    To be successful, and I am not saying they would be, the Republicans would probably need to do what the Democrats did in Indiana in 2008: maximize turnout all over, to kill it in the blue areas and limit the loses in the red areas. It seems conceivable this could work, but perhaps a closer look at the numbers will convince me otherwise.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:42:00 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                      The numbers are simpler than you might imagine.

                      Dems come out of Philly/Pittsburgh with at least 450K vote margins.  There are ~6million votesd in PA, and Philly/Pitt have about ~1.2M

                      So in order to win PA, GOP needs about 54-46 in the rest of the state.  Working backwards, assume the GOP can get back to a tie in DelCo (60-39 Obama in 2012 with 250K votes), win MontCo 55-45 (56-42 Obama in 2012 with 400K votes) and win ChesterCo 60-40 (50-50 in 2012 with 250K votes).  Increase turnout 20% in MontCo and Chester County and the GOP has picked up a vote margin of 60K in Delco vis a vis 2012, 100K in MontCo and 60K in ChesterCo.

                      So Dems now have a 200K vote margin with 4 million votes left.  Even if there are wholesale 10 point increases in Philly collar counties with 20% increases in turnout to fuel the GOP surge, the GOP still needs to win the rest of the state 52-48 (which of course they would do).

                      But boy is that a bridge too far?  They can't lose Philly/Allegheny/MontCo the way they have and still have a viable path.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:05:41 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Do you think Allegheny might start voting (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera, aamail6

                        Republican at some point? Or is there enough of a (growing?) liberal urban core that it will offset R trends among white working class voters? (Or maybe the latter are more resiliently Democratic than I'm giving them credit for?)

                        •  I think (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Chachy, bumiputera

                          It's entirely possible in our lifetime.  Though my caveat is that by the time this happens Allegheny will be far less important due to a big population decline from where it stands today.

                          Heck, they voted for Corbett, though his opponent wasn't great and 2010 was a supremely depressed year for Dems.  Numerous asterisks.  But for Pres its a long way off.  Even then I'd doubt it simply because i think Pittsburgh's future is healthcare and universities, and both of those could lead to Dem increases.  

                          If pittsburgh fails to realize its healthcare/eductaional potential, it gets large population declines and voting GOP becomes possible; if it reinvents itself as a healthcare/life science/education center, then probably not.

                          Dems would be wise to focus on Philly anyways.  Philly has 300K more people but usually produces about the same number of votes as Allegheny.  

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:36:45 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  If anything, that county (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          bumiputera, aamail6

                          has gotten more Democratic, at least in absolute terms, in recent decades.

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:54:17 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Allegheny is ridiculously stable (6+ / 0-)

                          1996: Clinton wins by 15 points
                          2000: Gore wins by 16 points
                          2004: Kerry wins by 15 points
                          2008: Obama wins by 15 points
                          2012: Obama wins by 14 points

                          Try to find a county like that anywhere else in the country.

                          This is a solid example of the flaws in looking purely at PVI changes to determine how a region is "trending".  From good Dem years to bad, Allegheny remains stubbornly even.

                          This has withstood the changes that have seen the neighboring SW Pennsylvania counties turn hard against us, going from Dukakis landslides in 1988 to Romney landslides in 2012.  Even Mondale won all those counties in 1984.  I think Allegheny has enough of a solid urban core to remain safe Dem for quite awhile.

                          •  Wow, yeah, I didn't realize that. (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Skaje, BeloitDem, sapelcovits, Inoljt

                            That's crazy.

                            Looks like it's on pace to be 50-50 by 2096 or so, though. Republican trend!

                          •  Despite being blown out (0+ / 0-)

                            by almost 18 points nationwide in 1984, Mondale only lost PA by 7.45. In fact, as I've mentioned in the past, PA hasn't gone beyond 11 points since 1972. (Obama technically got above 10 points with 10.32 percent.) It's been within a narrow range for quite some time, so perhaps the better comparison is the county percentage with the statewide percentage, not with the national percentage.

                            Also, why are we hurting in this area of the state?

                            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                            by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:08:26 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  I think the Lehigh Valley is the fastest-growing (0+ / 0-)

                part.

                28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

                by bumiputera on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:34:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera

                  In terms of percentages, which I loathe.  But since the 2010 census, the projections have PA gaining 40K people, with:

                  10K in Philly
                  4.5K in MontCo
                  5K in Chester
                  3.5K in Allegheny

                  Other places might be growing faster, but those 4 counties, 3 of them quite Dem-leaning, make up mroe than the estimated population gain.

                  No matter how you look at it, PA just doesn't give the GOP a viable path.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:46:54 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I disagree... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              I think the Democrats are in trouble in PA potentially.  Not a ton of trouble, but some.  Obama's margins dropped by greater margins than the national swing everywhere but.

              1.  Erie
              2.  Allegheny County (Pittsburgh)
              3.  Oddly, three now-Republican-leaning counties along the Ohio border, Mercer, Lawrence, and Beaver.  I'm not sure if the slower decline was due to influence from Ohio commercials, or because there are fairly sizable (5% or so) black communities in these counties.  
              4.  Dauphin County (Harrisburg
              5.  Lackawanna & Luzerne Counties (Wyoming Valley)
              6.  Monroe County (Pocanos)
              7.  Delaware County (increasing minority population)
              8.  Philadelphia.  

              Southwestern PA continuing to move away from us is not surprising in the slightest, as it's been happening in every presidential election since 1988 at least.  And no one expected Obama to do well in the T.  But he lost 3% to 5% in every county not listed above in Eastern PA as well.  Inroads which seemed to be starting in Lancaster County were reversed.  Obama fell back in Berks, the Lehigh Valley, and the rest of the Philly burbs as well.  

              No one is arguing that these counties will go back to being hard right.  And hopefully Romney just happened to be the kind of country club conservative who appealed to the upscale voters who swung to Obama in 2008.  But this is the first time many of the counties (like Montgomery) have moved a hair to the right in 20 years.  If they cease moving leftward, it will be enough to turn Pennsylvania into a slightly Republican-leaning seat, as we still haven't hit bottom in rural Southwestern Pennsylvania (Romney cleared 50% in all the counties, but didn't clear 60% in many, whereas he got 60%-70% in most counties.  

              •  On the other hand, OFA (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                didn't contest PA all that much this year, at least not compared to 2008. Romney's campaign didn't, either, but given how hard they played in the counties surrounding Philly in 2008 and how vote rich they are, I'm sure that cut down on his margin. Which is to say, we might have to spend a little more than we did this year to save it, but that's hardly a big deal.

                As for the other side of the state, the changes are worse than I remember them being. Still, as long as we can crack 40 percent in the counties surrounding Alleghany, we should be okay. I'd be interested to hear what, if anything, Democrats plan to do to come back in this part of the state.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:06:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Obama lost 3-5% (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, sacman701, redrelic17

                from an election where he won nationally by 7% to an election where he won nationally by 3%?!

                OH NOESSSSS!!!!!!

                •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera

                  Obama won nationally in 2008 by 7 points, this year reduced to about 3.  Obama last won Pennsylvania by 10, this year reduced to 5.  I think we'll be okay.  Yeah SW PA (not Allegheny though) is trending against us, but there's not that many people there compared to the Philly suburbs, which mostly held even or slid just a bit compared to 2008.  And Philadelphia itself continues to deliver more and more lopsided margins to Democrats.

                  Pennsylvania seems like it will continue to lean just slightly to the left of the country as a whole.  Certainly to the left of Ohio as it has in every single presidential election going back 60 years.  We'll be fine.

                  •  Better question: (0+ / 0-)

                    what can we do to come back or win these counties outright?

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:09:25 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Plus, Philadephia County actually (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera

                    managed to grow from 2000 to 2010. The absolute change in people wasn't huge, of course, but if it keeps that up, it only help us.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:12:03 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I didn't say it was the end of the world... (0+ / 0-)

                  But I'm pretty sure, when Cook PVIs come out, PA will be downgraded from D+2 to D+1 based upon how Obama's 2012 swing in PA was worse than his national swing.

                  If the same trend continued for another cycle or two, PA could easily be a moderately right-leaning state like Ohio.  In elections we carry by a wide margin, this won't matter, but if we're facing a closely-fought national election, it could easily be a tipping point state.  

                  Plus, allowing the Republicans to make headway in PA allows them to start to build a countermap to our own eventual competitiveness in AZ, GA, and TX.  

      •  I don't think simply campaigning in areas (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        where everyone thinks your ideas suck will change minds.  Might boost turnout a bit, from people who usually don't vote because they know everyone else who lives in their part of town thinks their ideas suck.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:47:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, is it about changing minds (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          or turning out voters? Probably a little of both.

          I usually think of Hamilton County in Indiana. It's staunchly Republican, yet Obama went from 25.15 percent to 38.45 percent in 2008. The good year certainly helped, but from what I read, Democrats opened up an office in the county for the first time in at least two decades. I'm wouldn't be surprised if OFA did a lot of stuff there, too. And while McCain actually lost ground statewide in absolute voters compared to Bush in 2004, his total was almost the same as Bush's was, increasing by less than 1,000 votes. (And for what it's worth, Obama's total in this county in 2012 was 32.01 percent.) To me, this suggests that Obama's performance there was more about motivating our people than convincing their people.

          Anyway, you do have to wonder how running ads there might actually change some minds. It would be minimal, I'm sure, but as I said above, you don't need massive increases to see some considerable rewards.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:03:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  So then, does he think that Bush (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, LordMike, BeloitDem, James Allen

      wrongly bought his reelection with tax cuts, Medicare Part D, defense spending and contracts, more education spending, highway pork, farm subsidies, and other locally tailored measures such as the steel tariffs that disappeared after reelection was won?

      Not to mention all those mortgages that his administration encouraged banks to hand out to people who couldn't consistently pay for them, because the inexorable rise in housing prices ensures that they will build wealth and become Republicans out of gratitude (you can laugh and roll your eyes at both the economics and politics of that, but Karl Rove among others made that exact argument.)

      It shouldn't surprise anyone that Romney is coming off as a whiner rather than a statesman.  But he's also being a hypocrite; politicians of all stripes do that, and if he had been elected he would have done the same over the next four years (or the previous four if he had won in 2008.)

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:00:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  the worst part about this is (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, aamail6, James Allen, MichaelNY

      I still have yet to receive all the free goodies Obama promised me for voting for him. hurry up dude!

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:37:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Introduction post (25+ / 0-)

    I've been a lurker since the SSP days, going back to the run up to the 2010 cycle, but never signed up I guess because I thought it would distract me too much from my 1L year to be actively participating here.

    Anyway, this has become my favorite place on the internet and I feel like I know many of you from having hung out here so much so I thought I'd dive in. Ive been living in San Francisco for awhile now, formerly from north Orange County, CA and have been fairly active in local races here. I know we have a really solid CA contingent here already, but I hope to be able to contribute something to this awesome place.

  •  If you have't read MattTX's diary (11+ / 0-)

    on the Cuban vote in Florida yet, do so now. It's a well-researched piece on what's probably the most substantial shift in Florida, if not the nation this election.

    •  Yes, it definitely is. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      despite the diverging exit polls on the Cuban vote, the shift in heavily Cuban precincts is more solid evidence.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:35:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO-06: St. Senator Morgan Carroll can do it. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, jj32, MichaelNY

    She has a broad base in the district, which Miklosi didn't.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:34:19 AM PST

  •  Murray to replace Conrad as Budget Chair: (20+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:06:56 AM PST

  •  Some Republicans tired of the "47%" crap (9+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:07:48 AM PST

  •  VA-GOV (4+ / 0-)

    Who else, besides McAuliffe, will run?
    Let's hope that good ol' Terry isn't the best Democrats can field in a state that has become more Democratic than the nation.

    •  Tom Periello could run. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, skibum59, MichaelNY

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:29:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The best thing about Periello (5+ / 0-)

        is that he proved that message works. Instead of running away from Obamacare, the stimulus etc he campaigned on them and he did a hell of a lot better in 2010 then other house candidates in better districts

        We only think nothing goes without saying.

        by Hamtree on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:31:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He could (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But a 1-term wonder congressman is not exactly a top-tier candidate. Problem is, all of the top-tier candidates are already in office in Virginia...

      •  No (6+ / 0-)

        McAuliffe is it unless Warner wants it, which is highly unlikely.

        No one else will challenge McAuliffe.

        Forget Perriello, he has not made any noises at all about running for anything ever again.  He's a lawyer and could've run for A.G. next year, or for L.G. where there is no powerful establishment candidate...my longtime personal friend Aneesh Chopra is the frontrunner.  But Tom is staying on the sidelines.

        Perriello is letting his time pass without any further noise as a candidate.  He seems content as a semi-prominent activist, nothing more.  And there's nothing wrong with that at all.  But it's time to shut the door on discussing Perriello as a candidate for anything, ever, unless he himself starts to make noise about it.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:02:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Chopra (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Will he be able to win the general election? I hate to say it this way, but do you think his ethnicity will be a hindrance for him?

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:08:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's a fair question (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            Aneesh is a great guy, very friendly and personable.  I've known him since he was still an undergrad student at Johns Hopkins.  He's done well for himself professionally, is married with kids, and he's served in appointed public offices.

            But he's never run for anything in his life.

            And yes being Indian hurts in some places, but only in places where Democrats always lose anyway.  Will his margins be worse in those places?  Well, no worse than Obama's.  But then Aneesh won't have Obama's turnout model to carry him.  But then the top of the ticket, the Governor's race, drives turnout, and an election against Cuccinelli is going to be close with pretty high turnout for a Governor's race...but still less than a Presidential.

            Aneesh is a NoVA guy.  The party establishment is not behind him and looking to primary him, but they don't have anyone too strong...a state legislator is eyeing it but the guy is a centrist rural Dem who won't play so great in the party base.  I think the Deeds experience will sour a lot of us in NoVA and elsewhere in Dem quarters toward rural centrists...Deeds' failure and Obama's successes effectively destroyed the DLC model at the state level here in the minds of the Democratic base.  So someone like Aneesh won't strike rank-and-file primary voters as any less electable than a white rural centrist.

            The bottom line is Aneesh definitely needs the top of the ticket to carry him.  He won't run ahead of McAuliffe unless the GOP nominee is acutely bad.

            Of course, if Bolling surprises everyone and decides to drop out of the Governor's race and run for reelection, then that ends it, he'll be reelected and no Democrat can beat him.  And no I'm not saying there's any talk of that, this is just my own naked speculation.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:58:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'm still hoping for Tom Perriello. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY

      that would be quite the contrast with Cooch.

    •  Perriello has not made any moves towards running (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      McAuliffe has the field to himself. Nobody else has really made any kind of noises about running. I don't blame them -- despite his weaknesses, McAuliffe will probably have a good $10 million behind him to win the primary, and anyone in the state legislature is going to be unable to fundraise until the 2013 session is over in April. I expect we'll probably see a McAuliffe/Chopra/Herring ticket next year, unless someone like Chap Petersen jumps into one of the races.

  •  Finally, some liberal action on election reform (25+ / 0-)

    Sen. Coons is proposing a bill that would require states to institute same-day registration, early voting, and early no-excuse absentee voting, as well as audit poorly performing polling places to develop a plan to reduce voter wait times. Story here.

    "[The fact that] it appears that there were tens of thousands -- if not hundreds of thousands -- of Americans who had their right to vote denied or compromised by having to wait in line five, six, seven hours is profoundly concerning and upsetting to me," Coons told reporters on Capitol Hill on Thursday morning.

    He called it unacceptable that 12 years after the Florida debacle in the 2000 presidential election there are still such widespread problems.

    I really hope this goes somewhere -- but Republicans will probably scream bloody murder. Anyone think a lot of this stuff could be done via executive order?

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:19:44 AM PST

  •  Best place for voting updates? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    CNN is decent, but is there anywhere else to get up to the minute vote results with third party candidates included?

    Kevin (aka "NoVa Dem")

    by NoVa Dem on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:27:59 AM PST

  •  Buffett wants Hillary to run in '16 (12+ / 0-)
    Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he hopes Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States in 2016.

    "I don't see how you could have anybody better qualified," Buffett told CNN's Poppy Harlow in an exclusive interview Wednesday about the current Secretary of State and 2008 White House hopeful.

    "I like what she believes in," said Buffett. "I think she's extraordinarily able and energetic for that matter in pushing those beliefs."

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...
  •  VA-4 looks winnable (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bjssp, redrelic17, MichaelNY

    By 2008 standards, it was R+4, at 50% McCain, this is time it was 50% Romney or R+2, being only 2% more Republican than the state and the country.

    Ella Ward managed about 43% with the race being completely off the radar, so I think this one should be in the radar in future cycles. Not sure who would be a good candidate around there, but hopefully there are some good recruits.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:09:35 AM PST

    •  I'm less (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, DrPhillips, MichaelNY

      concerned about the "right" background than giving the resources necessary to win. It looks like Ward had a fantastic background for someone running for congress, but that she just couldn't compete because she had no money.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:18:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And J. Randy Forbes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, wwmiv, MichaelNY

        is one of the biggest religious nuts in the House.  Although that may resonate with most of the fourth district, which is quite religious.

        As for Forbes' organization, it's great.  During election season it looked like he dropped a bomb over the fourth district and yard signs fell and landed everywhere.  In the middle of roads, fields, every house, etc.

        VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

        by psychicpanda on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:08:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Comparing VA districts 2008 to 2012 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Obama did 1.5% points less in VA-1, 0.5% less in VA-2 (and still won it, so much for the fear of Romney picking up naval jobs votes), VA-04 was flat (Obama lost a bit, but so did Romney from McCain's performance),

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:15:13 AM PST

  •  house picture (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gigantomachyusa

    I think I've ID'd the front row. From left, Beatty, Meng, Esty, CSP, Bustos, Brownley, Frankel, MLG, GNM, Wagner, Sinema, Kuster, Gabbard, Del Bene, Titus?, Brooks, Walorski. "Titus" doesn't look anything like her mugshot from the NJ article, but Kirkpatrick was off the screen to the left and Duckworth is up on the balcony, and there are no other women left.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:22:32 AM PST

    •  I thought the person between DelBene and Brooks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      was McSally. Not sure were Titus is...

    •  Couple random faces I see: (0+ / 0-)

      Gallego (behind and to the left of Beatty), JKIII (first balcony), Horsford (first balcony), and that's probably Veasey behind him, Castro (second balcony, to the left of the corner), Takano and Sean Patrick Maloney (to the right of Gallego).

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:29:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  some others (0+ / 0-)

        Foster is in the upper left corner, Grayson is 2 to his right with the red shirt and white tie, Lowenthal is behind Kuster, and the big guy with the beard behind him is LaMalfa. Not sure who the really big dude at the front of the lower balcony is, though. He sticks out almost as much as Runyan did in the last picture, and Runyan is a former NFL offensive tackle!

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:44:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  No... (0+ / 0-)

        Gallego is on the second balcony next to the guy you think is Castro, which isn't. It's Fil Vela.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:53:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Castro (0+ / 0-)

          Is wearing a blue tie in the third row third from the left.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:53:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Pretty sure that's Alan Grayson (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        In the RED shirt in the back row on the left-hand side.

        And the guy to the left of Takano and Maloney is Joe Garcia.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:04:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also (0+ / 0-)

          I'm pretty sure that Veasay is the black guy on the second balcony next to Fil Vela and Gallego.

          O'Rourke is on the back row four down from Grayson.

          Horsford and Jeffries are the two on the first balcony to the right hand side.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:12:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Pete (0+ / 0-)

      Gallego is the guy at the very top in shades.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:51:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who is that (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, Audrid, gigantomachyusa

    scary, Big Bird-like woman at the right of the first row of the freshman class photo? Is that Walorski?

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

    by David Jarman on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:29:15 AM PST

  •  PV: Obama's lead at 3,673,000 (7+ / 0-)

    Looks like 50.6 to 47.7 right now.  Heading towards at least a full 3 point victory.

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:36:48 AM PST

  •  Georgia Republicans...No, Words Fail (6+ / 0-)

    I'm honestly not sure what to think of this. I supposed I shouldn't be surprised there was a "four-hour closed door meeting of Republican state senators which was convened by Senate Majority Leader Chip Rogers (R) to discuss President Obama's efforts to brainwash Americans on behalf of the United Nations, as Gawker and Political Wire describe, but I am. I am honestly not sure what to say. I mean, seriously guys?

    Also, I don't have time to watch this entire video right now, but I am pretty sure that's Dick Morris who makes an appearance. I guess he felt his reputation was just too strong.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:47:38 AM PST

  •  KY-Sen: Edelen talking up a Grimes candidacy. (7+ / 0-)
    “I think she’s a great candidate, she’s someone who draws a fantastic contrast with Mitch McConnell and she’s a great campaigner and has an outstanding network," Edelen said of Grimes.
    Grimes was the leading vote-getter in the 2011 statewide elections and her family has close ties with former President Bill Clinton, lending the opportunity for the former president to hit the campaign trail with Grimes should she run. Clinton was the last Democrat to win Kentucky in a presidential election.
    http://wkyufm.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:48:59 AM PST

    •  if she runs this could be the only (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      out of state race I contribute to in 2014.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:56:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think it might be better (4+ / 0-)

        to have her run for Chandler's old seat and have, say, Luallen, Bashear, Edelen, or even Conway run for the Senate? It seems like Grimes has lots of potential. She's not even 35, so it's not like there's some huge rush. There are other candidates that have been mentioned who might make good picks to take on Barr, but the benefit to having Grimes run for the House now is that it might prep her for 2016 to take on Paul.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:09:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  aside from Conway, yes. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But if she runs I will support her.  In fact, if we have any good candidate I will support them.  I don't think the LG or Conway would be good candidates (though I gave money to Conway last time, he ruined himself for the near term with his campaign).

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:12:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Good, we've got a plan. (3+ / 0-)

            Now, we just need Kentucky Democrats to listen to us. Any ideas? Do they like Edible Arrangements?

            Seriously now, I do like this idea, but even if it doesn't happen this way, it looks we have opportunities to be competitive in both races, and perhaps even some other House races. What a refreshing change. Perhaps Tennessee Democrats could learn a thing or two from Kentucky Democrats.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:21:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  not other house races (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

              those seats were drawn to lean Republican heavily, unless Rogers or Whitfield retire, in which case they would still lean Republican heavily.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:40:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Run, Alison, run! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, jj32, MichaelNY

        Clinton and Grimes together would be such an asset in this race. He'd give her access to his popularity and money. She'd bring her own charm and fundraising prowess.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:11:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Off-year state elections help us here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      We've got a nice big bench in Kentucky with statewide officeholders who don't have to give up their offices to run federally.

      I hope she does it.  One of the statewides running is our best bet.

      And I hope at some point Breshear runs for U.S. Senate.  Maybe a longshot, a lot of these popular Governors can't stomach the thought of being at the bottom of a 100-person food chain after having been large and in charge for 8 years.  But if he can be convinced, Breshear could beat any Republican.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:06:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Beshear* (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:14:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think Grimes would be helped or (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        hurt if she ran for the House and then for the Senate? I suggested that she would be helped above, but now that I think about it, I was basing that on little more than the idea of running for federal office is different for running for state office in Kentucky and that she would stronger after going through the process. Any Democrat doing well in Kentucky is going to have to kill it in Lexington, but she could probably do that even without representing it in the House. I'd also think that Paul's an easier target than McConnell and that Beshear's probably a stronger candidate than Grimes right now.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:50:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  DesJarlais other shoe drops 2 weeks too late (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.timesfreepress.com/...

    "Scott DesJarlais supported ex-wife's abortions, slept with patients, divorce transcript shows"
    "Documents reveal liasons with three coworkers, two patients and a drug rep"

    What a sleazebag.

  •  Chris Collins idiocy (8+ / 0-)

    you'd think all the black people and women would have tipped him off that he wasn't in the Republican caucus... IDIOT.

  •  TN 4: Had that information come out before (6+ / 0-)

    the election, DesJarlais still would have won.

    Short of him being photographed burning a Bible while shouting, Death to the Confederacy, he would have won.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:59:14 AM PST

  •  WI State Senator Glenn Grothman (R) goes nuts (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, bythesea, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Glenn Grothman claimed that the New World Order was behind his Democratic opponent (who he defeated by a huge margin)!

    The next two years in Wisconsin politics may be even uglier than the last two years...be ready for anything, folks.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 12:11:45 PM PST

  •  Anyone have a nice summary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gigantomachyusa, MichaelNY

    of what happened with the AZ state senate (Xeno, I'm looking at you).

    I understand republicans held the chamber, but that can mean lots of different things.

    •  AZ Senate. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      I'm waiting on better results, but as of now, Dems are at 13-17, having lost the key races of LD-07 and LD-18 by 6.4 and 6.7 points respectively, and barely carrying the key race of LD-08 by 2.9 points (and a libertarian taking 5!).  The other key race I'd identified, LD-28, was an 11.6-point loss as of now.  Meanwhile Dems carried what I recall as their weakest "safe" seat, LD-10, by a little under 9 points over Republican Frank "stupid, stubborn Jan Brewer--yes I'm voting with her" Antenori.

      Meanwhile, Dems lost District 11 by 12.6 points--that one was never really on my radar (it's in Western Pinal County).

      Things were worse for Dems in the State House.  Recall that AZ elects two State Reps per district, and in Districts 6, 8, 18, 28--all reasonably swingy--Dems snagged only a single seat, in District 28, because one Dem was against two Republicans.  Dems seem to have lost one of the two seats in LD-9 for the analogous reason, and otherwise, it looks like there aren't any splits, so I guess that's 26 D, 34 R  in the House.  But they're still counting votes.

      Kind of surprised that this guy is going to be a state legislator.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:52:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  26 D's, not 24? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

        I thought it was 24.  Well, good.  Democrats are where they were after 2006 elections (13 Senators, 27 Reps.).

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:03:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Some ongoing Romney sucks details (7+ / 0-)

    - According to the Colorado state site, Obama is now ahead of Romney by 4.9%, 51.28% to 46.38%.  So the tipping point state easily rounds up to 5%.

    - According to AZ site, Obama now losing by less than 10%.  That will get less as provisionals are counted, but nice to have it in single digits.

    - Google is updating national numbers but not states.  They are more than a million behind CA.

    - CA state site hasn't updated in 38 hours, but Wasserman's vote tracker has Obama 2,365,000 ahead, more than 2/3 of Obama's 3,670,000 margin.  Still well over a million votes to be counted.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 01:21:49 PM PST

  •  PA-Gov, that bump will fade once you bring up (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JGibson, JBraden, MichaelNY

    Jerry Sandusky's name and Kathleen Kane is going to be making this a serious issue.

  •  How can I find a list of the AG races we won? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    And lost? I know the biggest one we gainedwas Kathleen Kane in PA followed by Ferguson in WA.  We lost WV (a damn shame) and MT (also a damn shame).

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 03:00:04 PM PST

  •  Ami Bera (11+ / 0-)

    Let's call this sucker. Bera basically doubled his lead again. More than 6,300 votes with another 40K ballots in. Should be less than 35K left in the county and half that in this district.

    http://www.eresults.saccounty.net/

  •  Buster Posey Elected National League MVP! (6+ / 0-)
    MLB Network @MLBNetwork  25s  
    Congrats to @BusterPosey of the @SFGiants on winning the NL MVP Award! pic.twitter.com/diiiDB8e
    From a possible career-ending injury last year to winning the World Series, the batting title, the Comeback Player of the Year, and now the MVP.

    Hey, it involves voting! :)

  •  Is Colorado still "trending" D? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, gigantomachyusa

    That is, relative to the country?

    Obama won by 9 last time, and by 5 this time, in Colorado.  That's compared--nationally--to a 7.2 margin and a 2.8 margin respectively.  So both times, Colorado was around 2 points more Democratic than nationally, on the margin, so D+1 or so.  (Also what two-party vote share gives, for both 2008 and 2012.)

    Compare 2004-2008: Bush won by 4.7 in Colorado, and by 2.4 nationally.  Colorado was 2 points more Republican on the margin, so R+1 or so.  

    Bush got 50.8% in Colorado in 2000, compared to 51.7% in 2004.  Nationally, Bush got 47.9% in 2000, and 50.7% in 2004.  That's R+3 or so in 2000, R+1 in 2004.

    1996, Clinton/Dole/Perot is 44.4/45.8/6.6 in Colorado and 49.2/40.7/8.4 nationally.  So Colorado is probably around, say, R+5 or R+6.

    1992, Colorado is 40.1/36/23 Clinton/Bush/Perot, vs. 43/37.5/18.9 nationally.  That's probably about even, but who knows.

    Colorado was also about even with the national results in 1988, but then it was back to R+5 in 1984, and probably moreso in 1980.

    To recap:

    1980: Colorado is R+7 or maybe R+8.
    1984: Colorado is R+5.
    1988: Even.
    1992: Even? R+1?
    1996: R+5 or R+6.
    2000: R+3.
    2004: R+1.
    2008: D+1.
    2012: D+1.

    Has the D trend stalled out?  I know everyone hates PVI and comparing relative swings between an area and the national swing (for some reason), but that technique would have clearly pointed to a D trend looking back from 2000, 2004, 2008.  What's changed?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:21:55 PM PST

    •  More precisely (0+ / 0-)

      has Colorado settled on D+1?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:23:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could be that 2008 was just a little higher (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        killjoy

        than it "should" have been and 2012 was more of a return to the norm of that slow but steady D trend.  It wouldn't surprise me if the same occurred with New Mexico, though I bet Gary Johnson took a considerable amount from Obama there too since he was basically breakeven with both parties in past polls.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:36:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          2012 looks more like the violation of the trend (2 more points bluer every four years) than 2008, though, at least by my eyes.

          I think it's worth looking into further.  We do a lot of straight-line projection about how Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Arizona (although that's a tricky case between the lengthy vote count and McCain's home state effect) will "keep getting bluer", and I'm not sure if there's evidence they're still getting bluer, at least in PVI terms relative to the country.  But perhaps Romney was just a good fit in a Mormon/Sun Belt way.  And I could have my numbers wrong.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:44:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm with sawolf (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        that 2008 was something of an outlier.  I think Colorado is truly on the D+ side now and will be a state Republicans could realistically win (D+2 to D+3) but probably won't for about one more Presidential election.

        I think this election was the last year New Hampshire was in reach for national Republicans.  I thought Nevada might be with New Hampshire but it's letting a few too many Republicans hang on in office (Heller, Heck, only 11D/10R D majority in the state Senate).  But it's on its way to becoming an eastern portion of California.  :-)

        •  Why do you think that about NH? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          We swept the state and had huge majorities in the legislature, a senate seat, both house seats, and an easy presidential victory in 2008, only to be shellacked there two years later.

          •  Basically 2010 happened because (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, bumiputera

            the 2006/2008 voters there included a big chunk of conservative whites.  Those peeled off in 2009-10.

            But in the past six years Democrats have gained the bulk of new/young voters there (and everywhere else) and that's enough additional reliable left-liberal votes to get back over 50%.

            The narrative as far as I know and can figure it out is that until the early 2000s New Hampshire was New England's right-conservative backwater sh-thole.  Remember Bob Smith?  That's what Old New Hampshire was about- historically poor, poorly educated, yet genuine...but sorta dumb and resentful politically.  Then between 1995 and 2005 the New Economy rolled into New Hampshire in a big way and with it lot of Boston-employed yuppies, McMansionvilles, some small tech companies, and the tech company/tech job based future.  Northern redneckia tried to fight it but ceased being a viable way of life.  

            A lot of people in New Hampshire were at that point very tired of Northern redneckia and inmigrant retiree income tax refugees being the deciding factions in state politics.   It made for unceasing arguments about property taxes and underfunded schools.  The opportunity to vote all that out came in 2006 and the election was pretty spectacular.

            Too much so, actually.  The seat margins in the state legislature and taking so many upper level offices was grossly disproportionate to the actual reliable Democratic vote.  But the elected Democrats did what was expected of them in 2007-2010 - the state got cleaned up and neglected areas funded and fixed, the property tax/school funding problem seems settled.  The place became functional and competent to Blue State New England standards.  Democrats got four years of trifecta to revamp the place and did it right.  And then kind of ran out of things to do.  They went a little further than their electorate was on legalizing gay marriage, but not badly and that basically led to a lot of whining about going too far that imo exceeded real objections to gm.  

            I'm not a 100% clear on 2010, but there was a national wave of the most conservative white Democrats balking at voting in Democrats again at any level.  On the view that they'd done a bunch of necessary stuff but had gone too far, held too many seats and behaved that way, etc.  I fhink in New Hampshire the feeling was the same on the federal as well as the state level.  Democrats went from grossly overrepresented to badly underrepresented in NH government and federal office relative to the real voter split in the state.

            The voters also didn't seem to grasp what sort of Republicans they were voting in.  The people who ran for office as Republicans in 2010 weren't much the won't go out of the way of a fight rural stalwart kind or the nice small town lady.  The people they voted in were largely exurban or suburban and party line sorts.  There wasn't any particular thing they were vote in to do, it seems, other than to stop Democrats.  But the Democratic governor got reelected to limit whatever it was they were going to do.  A fellow named Bill O'Brien managed to make himself state House Speaker.  It didn't take that long for O'Brien to emerge as a rigid right-conservative ideologue (a rarely seen thing in the legislature of a small state) and an anarchic-reactionary one at that.  He set to trying to repeal various laws and regulations, reducing the powers of state agencies, and defunding state projects.  One way to look at it is an attempt to create a far right wing libertarian New Hampshire.  Another is as an almost nihilistic hacking away at what moderate Republicans and Democrats had created.

            New Hampshire Republicans went along with that for a bit but soon began to dissent and split.  In October I heard a radio show about how O'Brien had gone from polite mild mannered geek in office to getting his most vocal moderate Republican opponent dragged from the chamber by security guards.  And whatever the Republicans in state and federal office representing them were doing, New Hampshirites were well aware at that point- not two years since this crowd had taken office and control- that it had close to zero to do with helping them live well functioning rural New England lives.  It was all ideology and ideals from outside New Hampshire and about making careers in the Beltway.  More importantly, after all the pecking and gnawing at them for a year and a half, the things the 2007-10 Democrats had wrought actually seem pretty sensible and solid.  In fact, good.

            In short, in October 2012 all the reactionary and extreme libertarian stuff had had their fair chances and pretty much only yielded up crap on closer inspection.  My impression is things went pretty much the same way in Maine, though electing LePage as governor made things worse.

            I think the cycle is almost complete now in NH.  The old resentful and xenophobic kind of Republicanism is no more.  (Ovide Lamontagne being its representative in the recent election- and smashingly defeated.)  The older frustrated activist variety of Democrats served as far as it could, getting the place functional and mainstream.  The new and essentially reactionary kind of Republicanism was then given its shot and ultimately added little or no value at all.   And now things are mostly back in the hands of Democrats who are more uniformly liberal and pragmatic than previously.  
            After all the long acrimony the state now needs a period of stability and good management of what exists and people getting on with their lives.

            Like the national Republican Party, the NHRP also has to de-radicalize and go back to some basics.

    •  Nevada, similarly, was about D+2 in 2008 and in (0+ / 0-)

      2012, after seeming to trend more significantly D from 2000-2004 and 2004-2008.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 04:32:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  could the housing crash have slowed trends? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY, jncca

      this is something I've been considering.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:21:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2 recounts in Iowa legislative races (9+ / 0-)

    The Democratic candidate in Iowa Senate district 28 (northeast corner of the state) is asking for a recount; he's down by 36 votes out of nearly 30,000 cast. Democrats are already assured of a Senate majority, with 26 seats in the 50-seat chamber; winning this seat would give them a little cushion going into the 2014 elections.

    A recount also appears likely in Iowa House district 43 (some of the western suburbs of Des Moines), where Democrat Susan Judkins trails by 22 votes out of about 17,500 cast. Republicans will have a majority in the chamber no matter what happens, but this recount would determine whether it's a 53-47 majority or a 52-48 majority.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 05:07:10 PM PST

  •  AP calls it for Ami Bera over Lungren (19+ / 0-)

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    So long and thanks for all the Orientation Training.

    Now, it's time for your Exit Interview!

  •  Wasserman's PV Count: Obama +3.75 million (5+ / 0-)

    https://docs.google.com/...

    If the California SOS ever decides to update again, the AP count may catch up.

    •  One more for the sucks-to-be-Mitt file (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      CA SoS hasn't updated in 49 hours now, but they did update the counties that have completed their count.  Nine small counies are done, plus Alameda (east SF Bay).  

      In the late count, Obama picked up 15,000 votes.  
      Mitt picked up 1,800.

      Obama won the early ballots by 60%.  
      Obama won these late/provisional ballots by about 80%.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:31:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  UT-04: Matheson's pollster nailed the final margin (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    In this article, it says John Anzalone was the pollster for Matheson and that in the last 5 weeks, he showed the race tied.  More telling is that the final Anzalone poll showed Matheson ahead by 1% (he won by 1.2%).

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:14:36 PM PST

  •  Quick Post... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, MichaelNY, jncca

    Here's a look at the PVI of states looking at 2012 numbers only.  It shouldn't be taken as emblematic of anything in particular, just highlight the chances that may have happened.  

    R+26 - Utah
    R+23 - Wyoming
    R+18 - Idaho
    R+17 - Oklahoma
    R+15 - West Virginia
    R+14 - Arkansas
    R+13 - Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska
    R+12 - Alabama, North Dakota, Tennessee
    R+11 - South Dakota
    R+10 - Louisiana
    R+9 - Alaska, Texas, Montana
    R+7 - Mississippi, Indiana, South Carolina, Arizona
    R+6 - Missouri
    R+5 - Georgia
    R+2 - North Carolina
    R+1 - Florida, Ohio
    EVEN - Virginia
    D+1 - Colorado, Pennsylvania
    D+2 - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Mexico
    D+4 - Michigan, Oregon
    D+5 - Washington, Maine
    D+7 - Illinois, New Jersey
    D+8 - Connecticut, Delaware
    D+9 - California
    D+10 - Massachusetts
    D+11 - Maryland
    D+12 - New York, Rhode Island
    D+16 - Vermont
    D+20 - Hawaii

  •  More proof David Jarman is very mistaken (16+ / 0-)

    This piece on the Kaine-Allen race in the Washington Post further establishes that GOP polling was just crazy delusional, for real, it's not post-election spin.

    Key excerpt:

    A week before Election Day, George Allen’s campaign team got back the results of their final internal poll, and they liked what they saw.  The numbers showed Allen (R) leading Timothy M. Kaine (D) in Virginia’s marquee U.S. Senate race by 5 points, and Mitt Romney (R) ahead of President Obama in the commonwealth by the same margin. Based on that, Allen’s team expected Romney to win the state with roughly 52 percent support, with Allen joining him in the winner’s circle.

    “That’s what we were looking at a week before the election,” recalled Boyd Marcus, a top adviser to the Allen campaign, at a discussion Thursday organized by the Virginia Public Access Project and the George Mason University School of Public Policy.

                                     * * * * * *

    Allen’s advisers weren’t the only Republicans who felt blindsided by last Tuesday’s results.

    “I’m going to do the mea culpa right here at the beginning. … There were no Republican consultants or pollsters in this country who got this election right,” Marcus said. “Every one of ‘em got it wrong. Thank God I wasn’t on Fox News election night to do it publicly.”

    I understand why Jarman and others have a hard time getting their heads around this, because it really is unbelievable that private polling through an entire political party, all its campaigns, could've been so systematically disastrously bad.  Private polling is almost always better than public polling on both sides.  And yet, in this year of all years, Republican private polling was completely wrong by everyone.

    But it's what happened.  The GOP's top private pollsters were doing the same things in their actual polling that all the crazy internet wingnuts were doing less scientifically.

    It's stunning.

    I can't tell you how much I'm enjoying the across-the-board Republican embarrassment and humiliation.  All their bluster and lying and racism and xenophobia and religious bigotry all year, and the world punishes them in the worst way on election night.

    I will happily shove this election at them every time they start mouthing off for many years.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:21:46 PM PST

  •  VA-Sen Post-Mortem (12+ / 0-)

    I don't think this got discussed in the last few days, but George Allen told the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he has no intentions of ever running for office again. It's amazing how far Allen has fallen over the last decade. His election as Governor probably brought about the greatest Republican resurgence in the Old Dominion since Reconstruction, and he managed to take out sitting Senator Chuck Robb in 2000 (I think people tend to forget these days how important incumbency is in a neutral year, especially more than a decade ago). People considered him a top-tier Presidential candidate for 2008. Not only did his "macaca" moment destroy his Senate campaign in 2006, but I think it's clear now that it indirectly put an end to his political career. It seemed like Allen could've rehabilitated his career and legacy with a win this year, but because he lost his clout in the state and because we successfully recruited Tim Kaine, he lost any chance of making a comeback. It's been quite a fall from grace - partly of his own doing, but partly because of the direction of the state and the country.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 07:54:56 PM PST

  •  For those who are still worried about AZ02 (6+ / 0-)

    Cochise County (the GOP county) was supposedly done with its ballots, but it unexpectedly just added 390 ballots... and it's Barber who netted votes, unexpectedly enough. 214, to be exact. That pushes his district-wide lead to 923 votes!

    That means that, to win, McSally would need to win the 16K provisionals left in Democratic Pima County by 6%... This one will go CA07's way very soon.

    •  I'm confused about the overwhelming confidence (0+ / 0-)

      Do we know where in Pima those votes are? Is there no chance they could be in heavily Republican precints?

      21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

      by gigantomachyusa on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:15:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pima hasn't started counting provisionals at all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        So what's left will come from everywhere in the county. Sure, it's possible McSally could make it up, but a 10-11% overperformance by an Arizona Republican among provisional ballots in a blue county would surprise me. You are right though, we shouldn't be too quick.

      •  Well, with Oro Valley and Marana out of the 2nd (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        The bulk of the Pima votes are in Tucson.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 11:34:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Diamond State Consulting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Diamond State Consulting (which is the polling firm for the Arkansas Republican Party) predicted Republicans would get 26 seats in the Senate and 72 (!!!!) in the State House based on their polling....

    By the way, an added bonus to Arkansas - we keep control of the Budget Committee on the House side (14-10) and have it at 4-4 on the Senate side. So Mike Beebe's middle class priorities are preserved for a while longer.

  •  Wow. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, ChadmanFL

    David Rouzer appeared in the freshman class picture for the 113th Congress, even though he has not won his election.   How arrogant.

    http://www.wect.com/...

    He's trailing by over 400 votes right now, and all the provisionals will have been counted by tomorrow.  But New Hanover County (one of the largest counties in the district) just finished counting and Mike McIntyre has a 1,500 vote lead in the final tally.  That's higher than his initial margin.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:29:39 PM PST

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