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I think this picture of Senator Mark Warner (D. VA) perfectly depicts the dilemma Warner is facing this upcoming election. With the 2014 mid terms a little over two years away, we should be hearing which Senators will be announcing their retirements and which candidates will be announcing their candidacies. Will Senator Tim Johnson (D) of South Dakota duke it out for another tough fight against former governor Mike Rounds (R)? Will a poll showing Senator Jay Rockefeller (D) trailing Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito (R) by less than four points discourage him from another run? Will Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) of New Jersey finally call it quits at the age of 90? All these questions and more will be answered soon but the one person who will have to answer this question is Mark Warner.
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Warner was the governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006 where term limits only allowed him to do one term. Warner won the 2001 race by building a strong base in rural Southwest Virginia. As governor, Warner worked with both parties to fix the tax code in Virginia. Warner supported raising taxes to fund transportation needs but rejected a referendum to raise sales taxes. Warner's plan helped lower food and some income taxes while increasing sales and cigarette taxes. The additional revenues contributed largely to Virginia's AAA score and contributed to the largest funding in to K-12 education in the state's history. Warner's popularity helped Virginia Democrats win the majority in the Virginia House of Delegates so it's no mystery why Virginia Democrats would love to have Warner come back to run for his old job. Warner left the governorship with a 74% approval rating.
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Warner was once considered a serious contender for the 2008 presidential election but instead decided to run for the U.S Senate in 2008 beating Republican Jim Gilmore with 65% of the vote. In the Senate, Warner serves in six committees and eight subcommittees. Though a populist moderate, Warner has been a big supporter of cap and trade laws and has been a big supporter of battling climate change and creating green energy jobs. Warner also heavily favors the EPA's work in regulating greenhouse gases. His pro-environmental record has recently made Warner a target in a new attack ad funded by oil lobbyists:
http://wamu.org/...
As Washington lawmakers look for new streams of revenue to deal with the bloated federal budget, the American Petroleum Institute is looking to protect the hard-won tax breaks energy companies enjoy. This week the group unveiled a new ad targeting Virginia Sen. Mark Warner. - WAMU 88.5, 11/18/12
The oil companies know that Warner is popular and could easily win his re-election to the Senate or win his old job back hence why they are attacking him early before he can announce his decision. But Warner isn't worried about the attack ads:
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"Somebody mentioned something about some ad being run, but I haven't heard it, and I'm sure as heck not going to lose any sleep over it," he says. - WAMU, 88.5, 11/18/12
Though a member of the Gang of Eight, Warner has been loyal vote in the Senate on a number of issues and his popularity in his home state would assure his re-election victory. Plus the most recent Washington Post article is indicating that Warner might stay in the Senate:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Don’t look for the popular, centrist Democratic senator to leave Washington’s Capitol Hill for Richmond’s Capitol Square.
“We all know the stories of my fingernails being scraped along the floor as they dragged me out,” Warner said.
But, tellingly, Warner spoke with unequivocating conviction of becoming a bipartisan bridge-builder in Congress’s dramatic “fiscal cliff” standoff and budget battles beyond. He also acknowledged daunting hurdles to reprising his charmed term as governor.
“You can’t just put the band back together. Circumstances in Richmond and other things have changed,” he said. “My top priority remains whatever I can do to get this debt-and-deficit deal because if we don’t get this fixed, not only is that going to have enormous national financial implications, but it’s going to have huge implications for the commonwealth.” - Washington Post, 11/18/12
Warner is one of Virginia's most popular politicians and with Republican Governor Bob McDonnell's term coming to an end, this would be terrific pick up for team blue. Former DNC chairman and 2009 gubernatorial candidate, Terry McAuliffe, has already announced his candidacy.
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Lt. Governor Bolling (R) and Tea Party darling, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) have also announced their candidacies and both PPP and Quinnipac show Cuccinelli as the favorite in the GOP primary.
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Both PPP and Quinnpiac also show Warner winning by a landslide if he chose to run for Governor:
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Warner, who says he will decide whether to run for governor or remain in the U.S. Senate by Thanksgiving, tops Lt. Gov. Bolling 53 - 33 percent and beats Attorney General Cuccinelli 52 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds.
"If Sen. Mark Warner decides to run, he begins the campaign as the prohibitive favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He is much better known and much better liked than either of the Republican aspirants and his job approval rating - 60 percent - is the highest of any statewide elected official. - Quinnipac University, 11/14/12
McAuliffe has a slight lead over Cuccinelli but it will be a close race. Plus Virginia Democrats wonder if McAuliffe is strong enough to help Democrats retake the House of Delegates:
If McAuliffe is the Democratic candidate, he would get 38 percent to 36 percent for Bolling, and 41 percent to 37 percent for Cuccinelli.
"Terry McAuliffe is another story, however. He is not well known and his rating among those who have an opinion of him it is not all that impressive. Bolling also is not well known, although he is slightly better liked at this point than is McAuliffe. Cuccinelli is somewhat better known than Bolling and McAuliffe. At this point McAuliffe is benefitting from his Democratic identification, which reflects the party's positive image in the state after President Barack Obama's victory and the president's 52 percent job approval." - Quinnipac University, 11/14/12
McAuliffe has a slight lead over Cuccinelli but it will be a close race. Plus Virginia Democrats wonder if McAuliffe is strong enough to help Democrats retake the House of Delegates.
2014 is not only about preserving the Senate in Democrats' hands but also defeating Republican Governors who won their seats during the 2010 GOP/Tea Party wave. We need to defeat Republican governors like Tom Corbett, Rick Scott, John Kasich and Scott Walker if we are to improve conditions in swing states and put control back into the Democrats' hands. Getting control of the Virginia governorship would be a great pick up but is it worth the risk of losing a seat in the U.S. Senate? It's looking like Warner will end up staying in the Senate and lets say McDonnell decides to challenge Warner, it will be an uphill battle for McDonnell:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
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Plus Virginia Republicans know how popular Warner is and don't really have a top tier candidate to go after him.
We may have a tough race ahead to take back the governorship in Virginia next year but at least we wouldn't have to worry about losing a Senate seat. With Cuccinelli leading in the GOP primary, it could make it easier for McAuliffe to win but it also raises the stakes in terms of the fate of Virginia. Cuccinelli is a Tea Party favorite and even though the Tea Party can be a gift for Democrats they can also be a cancer for our economy. I wish Warner and the gang of eight would stop trying to settle on a deal to prevent us from going off the "fiscal cliff" but at least him and newly elected Senator Tim Kaine (D) can be a great working duo for Virginia and for the country.
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With Warner choosing to run re-election, there won't be many diaries coming from me on this race.