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Nate Silver believes the 2014 House will be retained by the Republicans. Nate Silver 2014

If the campaign for the house does not change substantially, there is a substantial likelihood that the Democratic Party will fall back rather than lean forward. Hope for progressive change will be extinguished for another Congress.

After OFA 2012 developed the most incredible ground game ever, are we in danger of losing momentum?  We know that the 2010 redistricting made a House win difficult in 2012. Because of their confidence in their recently gerrymandered districts, many Republicans in the House may decide that obstructing the President is again their best course.

But these districts are static for 10 years, while district populations and party policies are changing. Millions of young citizens will become eligible to vote by 2014. Many current voters will no longer vote in 2014. The only thing certain about voting populations is that they will change.

Herein is suggested a strategy both to pick up important legislative votes in the House, and to prepare a fair chance for 2014 of picking up close House seats that went Republican in 2012:

1. Identify close races. (See below the fold. Should other districts be added?).

2. Start a Democrats for America organization as the heir to Obama For America, or transfer the ground game to the House Democratic Campaign Committee for 2014.

3. Open a DFA or HDCC 2014 office in each challenge district immediately.

4. Hire the best and most local OFA paid staff to staff each of the challenge offices. Recruit the OFA volunteers to support paid staff.

5. Develop a conversation with eligible voters in each district, providing information, a conversation about the district’s needs, access to democratic lawmakers, and registration and GOTV, using OFA techniques.

6. Make sure local voters are aware of their congressperson’s obstruction of important legislation, or support of unfair legislation.

7. Work with state and national Democratic Party to identify several strong local candidates, train the candidates, and introduce the candidates to local voters.

Races where we might pick up seats are identified below the fold.  Many of them are in swing states, where prominent Democrats could make a difference by discussing governing rather than politics, and by listening to local constituents.

Representative, District, Dm. / Rep.
Denham, Calif. 10, 46% / 54%
Coffman, Colo. 6, 45% / 49%
Southerland, Fla. 2, 47% / 53%
Webster, Fla. 10, 48% / 52%
Buchanan, Fla. 16, 46% / 54%
Davis, Ill. 13, 46% / 47%
Buchson, Ind. 8, 43% / 53%
Latham, Iowa 3, 44% / 52%
King, Iowa 4, 45% / 53%
Benishek, Mich. 1, 48% / 48%
Amash, Mich. 3, 44% / 53%
Walberg, Mich. 7, 43% / 53%
Bentivolio, Mich. 11, 44% / 51%
Kline, Minn. 2, 46% / 54%
Bachmann, Minn. 6, 49% / 51%
Hudson, N.C. 8, 46% / 54%
Meadows, N.C. 11, 43% / 57%
Holding, N.C. 13, 43% / 57%
Runyon, N.J. 3, 45% /54%
Grimm, N.Y. 11, 46% to 53%
Gibson, N.Y. 19, 47% to 53%
Reed, N.Y. 23, 48% to 52%
Collins, N.Y. 27, 49% to 51%
Heck, Nev. 3, 43% to 50%
Johnson, Ohio 6, 47% to 53%
Gibbs, Ohio 7, 43% to 57%
Renacci, Ohio 16, 48% / 52%
Gerlach, Pa. 6, 43% / 57%
Meehan, Pa. 7, 41% / 60%
Fitzpatrick, Pa. 8, 43% / 57%
Critz, Pa. 12, 48% / 52%
Rigell, Va. 2, 46% / 54%
Ryan, Wis. 1, 43% / 55%
Duffy, Wis. 7, 44% / 56%
Ribble, Wis. 8, 44% / 56%

Sources: NYTimes election results. California Secretary of State Official Results.

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”
― Abraham Lincoln

Originally posted to dialektik on Mon Nov 19, 2012 at 03:19 PM PST.

Also republished by DK Poli.

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