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Leading Off:

FL-18: Amazing! After all that mishugas involving recounts and re-recounts and multiple trips to court, GOP Rep. Allen West has finally conceded to Democrat Patrick Murphy. Of all the big Democratic wins on election night, this to me is one of the sweetest. Sure, West is crazy, but crazy has a lot of adherents in this country, especially in an almost perfectly divided district like this one. What's more, West raised an insane $17 million, and while a much of that was due to his extremely high burn rate, that still left him with a fortune to spend.

Meanwhile, a lot of Beltway types were very dismissive toward Murphy, a young first-time candidate they were all too willing to view the same way West did, as some kind of entitled upstart. He never was. I admit that when we first heard about him—then a 28-year-old accountant—we had him figured for a proverbial Some Dude and even took to calling him "no, not that" Patrick Murphy to distinguish from the much better-known former congressman from Pennsylvania. But Murphy quickly wowed us with his fundraising, and he turned out to be a strong campaigner.

What's more, when redistricting gave West the opportunity to move up the coast and seek reelection in the redder 18th instead of his native 22nd, Murphy made an enormously daring move and pursued West on to this tougher turf. Not only did that give Democrats a credible candidate to keep holding West's feet to the fire, but it avoided an expensive primary with fellow Dem Lois Frankel in the 22nd (who went on to win her own open-seat race). And while Murphy, as you may know, was a Republican not long before seeking office, he turned out to be a strong progressive, showing quite a lot of backbone in a swing district like this.

Murphy, now 29, will become one of the youngest members of Congress, so here's to many, many more years to come. Again, an amazing victory! And Congressman-elect (man do I love saying that!) Murphy even took the time to stop by Daily Kos on Tuesday morning to offer his thanks to the community here. What a mensch!


CT-Sen: This is so revolting but somehow exactly what I'd expect from a bottom-feeder like Linda McMahon:

Two days after the election campaign workers came to News 8 claiming, they had not been paid by Linda McMahon's campaign. We spoke out on their behalf and one week after the election the campaign was writing checks. The only problem is that the checks bounced. [...]

Twaine Don Gomes was one of the people who first complained to News 8. He was handed a check, but he says, the campaign told him they were mad that he came to News 8, so he got a little something extra in his envelope.

"Basically he handed me a check with a condom in it, told me I was screwed," Gomes said. "That's the rudest gesture you can ever do to a person, it's like spitting in a person's face."

And note that these aren't some high-priced D.C. consultants that McMahon's stiffed: If you read the full article, McMahon also screwed over a check-cashing company, which in fact paid out some of these checks. And typically, people who use check-cashing services are those without access to mainstream banking—in other words, folks on the bottom rungs of the economic ladder. So McMahon's campaign is shorting people who need the money most. I truly hope we never, ever see her again.

KY-Sen: Democratic state House Speaker Greg Stumbo says he won't challenge Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell in 2014, and he also threw cold water on the idea of an Ashley Judd candidacy, citing her opposition to mountaintop removal coal mining, saying "Democrats like myself would have trouble supporting her."


VA-Gov: There goes all that speculation: Dem Sen. Mark Warner has officially confirmed that he will not run for governor in 2013, the job he held from 2002 to 2006 (before winning election to the Senate). That leaves former DNC chief and unsuccessful 2009 primary candidate Terry McAuliffe as the presumptive Democratic frontrunner for this open seat. (Virginia law only allows governors to serve one term in a row, so incumbent GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell cannot run again.)


CA-35: Dem Rep. Joe Baca, who lost in an upset to fellow Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod, is going out swinging. He's penned an op-ed blaming his loss on a last-minute infusion of outside cash from Mike Bloomberg's PAC (Independence USA), and I actually have to agree that without those $3 million in attack ads, it's hard to see how Negrete McLeod would have pulled it off. Baca's words are harsh, accusing Bloomberg of "buying" his opponent and saying: "In the wake of super storm Sandy, imagine the number of homes that $3.3 million could repair, or the number of Thanksgiving meals that could be bought for displaced individuals and families."

But really, as we've written before, it seems like the only person Baca has to blame is himself. Instead of running in the firmly blue 35th, where he left himself open to precisely this kind of unpredictable same-party challenge, he could have run in the swingier but still Dem-leaning 31st. There, he would have almost certainly met GOP Rep. Gary Miller, and he would have been favored to win. (Instead, the 31st insanely wound up as an R-vs.-R contest in which Miller prevailed.)

But is Baca reconsidering for 2014? A random (and basically unsourced) tweet claims Baca said he'd run again in two years, in response to a question about whether he'd challenge Miller. I'd really like to see something firmer, though, especially since Baca is 65.

NC-07: Well, we're down to one last House race that's still in overtime: Republican David Rouzer has decided to request a recount, even though he trails Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre by a pretty intimidating 655 votes. The recount will take place on Monday and Tuesday, though if any county doesn't finish in time, it can ask for an extension.

UT-04: Should Mia Love be pissed at fellow Republicans Rob Bishop, Jason Chaffetz, and Gary Herbert? It seems like perhaps yes, based on that new stash of 16,000 documents related to redistricting that were just made public the other day. Bishop and Chaffetz, the state's two sitting GOP congressmen, both seemed to demand districts as wildly conservative as possible—despite having almost no fear of a Democratic challenge pretty much ever. Indeed, Ken Sumsion, the state House redistricting chair, says in a new interview: "In their own self-interest, they would have loved to have 80 percent Republican districts and got 70 percent-plus ... They would have taken 90 percent."

That's a little bit crazy to me, since I'd imagine that both men have more to fear from a challenge from the right in a primary than in a general election. (Indeed, that's how Chaffetz won office in the first place, though for what it's worth, Bishop disputes Sumsion's take.) But also intriguing is the notion—first floated back when maps were being debated—that Gov. Herbert wanted legislators to draw lines that would give Dem Rep. Jim Matheson a reason to seek reelection to the House, instead of trying to challenge Herbert for the governor's mansion. The evidence here is scanter, but emails at the time from Sumsion make it sound like he thought a veto by Herbert was a possibility if the maps didn't suit him. Once again, though, a Herbert spokesman differs with Sumsion's take.

But if Sumsion is right about all this (and he was in the center of things), then pressure by Bishop and Chaffetz for maximally conservative seats of their own, plus subtle veto threats from Herbert if Matheson didn't get a sufficiently appealing district to run in, may well have led to a map that just barely allowed Matheson to hang on—thus screwing Love.

Other Races:

AK-St. Sen: It sounds like the rift between warring factions of the Alaska Republican Party is mostly over. As you may know, a coalition of Democrats and more moderate Republicans held sway over the chamber for some time, but Dems lost enough seats on election day to give control of the Senate to the GOP outright. And based on current reports, it looks like all 13 Republicans have now united to form a majority—along with, interestingly enough, two Democrats. Four other Dems remain out in the cold, and one race, featuring Dem Sen. Hollis French, remains uncalled.

MT-Superintendent: There's still one uncalled statewide race left in the nation: the contest for Superintendent of Public Instruction in Montana. Democratic incumbent Denise Juneau leads Republican challenger Sandy Welch by just under 0.5 percent, which would allow Welch to seek a recount. It actually sounds like Welch wants to go that route, even though she'd have to put up a bond for the cost (estimated at a very hefty $115K), and even though she trails by a steep 2,264 votes at last tally. Welch would get the money back if the recount yields a tighter result, but she can't ask for one until after the state certifies the returns, which won't happen until Nov. 27.

NH Lege: It looks like all the recounts in New Hampshire haven't affected any outcomes: The state House will wind up firmly in Democratic control, by a 221-179 margin. That's an amazing flip from the 298-102 edge the GOP held after the 2010 elections, which itself was a huge turnabout from the 216-174 majority Dems had just before the election two years ago. Those are some seriously head-spinning gyrations, but what's most remarkable is that Democrats clawed their way back despite Republicans having complete control over redistricting. Hopefully they'll stay in power a bit longer now!

The situation in the state Senate, though, is not as bright. Two recounts both went against Team Blue, leaving the GOP with a slim 13-11 edge in the chamber. However, as in the House, it's a big jump for Dems, who were deep in the hole with just five seats after 2010. With Maggie Hassan retaining the governor's mansion for Democrats, hopefully she'll find a couple of willing Republican senators who want a nice state sinecures via some appointed position, thus forcing some special elections.

Grab Bag:

Ads: Thought you might catch a break from political ads, eh? After two weeks off, they're already back, although they're policy-related issue ads, not campaign ads, of course. A coalition of the SEIU, AFSCME, and NEA are targeting moderates of both parties not to cave on Social Security or Medicare as part of a "grand bargain." Interestingly, they're targeting Dem senators via TV (CO's Udall & Bennet, VA's Warner & Webb, and MO's McCaskill), while targeting the GOP's most labor-tolerant members via radio (Don Young, Jo Ann Emerson, Pat Meehan, and Mike Fitzpatrick). At any rate, it's good to see that labor (much like OFA) isn't making the same mistake that Democrats did in early 2009, and instead is continuing to go pedal-to-the-metal in the policy fight rather than coasting after the election and letting the activist momentum go to waste. (David Jarman)

Passings: Former New Hampshire Republican Sen. Warren Rudman, who served from 1980 to 1993, has died at the age of 82. Rudman had also served as the state's attorney general and belonged to the now-extinct tradition of moderate New England Republicans—he was even asked by Bill Clinton to become his secretary of the Treasury in 1994. Rudman was a co-author of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit reduction act and was also a key supporter of David Souter's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. (Souter had previously served on New Hampshire's highest court.)

Polltopia: Gallup sucked this year—we can all pretty much agree on that. Why they sucked, though, is a real puzzle, since they were doing a number of things right, compared with, say, Rasmussen (they called cellphones, for instance, and they didn't weight to party ID). National Journal's Steve Shepard does a deep dive into what their other problems might be, and the two main possibilities include using random-number dialing (instead of working off registration lists) and their likely-voter screen.

I was actually shocked to learn the specifics from this article of just how restrictive their LV screen is: it requires voters to self-report their voting history and how much thought they've given to the election, and know where their polling place is. However, that might not be the problem: Pew's Andrew Kohut says that his outfit uses a similar LV screen and it came close to nailing the election in 2012 (in fact, Kohut says he designed Gallup's LV screen himself, seeing as how he led Gallup before he took over at Pew). Rather, he thinks the sample itself is Gallup's problem. (David Jarman)

PPP: At long last (why, it's almost Thanksgiving!), PPP is back out with one of their patented "where should we poll" polls. The choices: IL, MA, NJ, OH, OR, RI, SC, and TX. I can't decide!

Redistricting: Conventional wisdom is that gerrymandering helped save the GOP's bacon in the House, amidst an election that mostly went the Dems' way, but just how much did it save them? Governing has a good roundup of the overall effects of redistricting on the post-election composition of the House; while they don't have a conclusive answer, they find that House elections were less competitive this year, with many more districts that were decisively red or decisively blue being created in 2010. 64 out of 435 House races were decided by a 10% margin or less this year, compared with 79 in 2010. They also cite a pre-election Brennan Center study that Republican control of most of the redistricting process allowed them to maintain control of "11 additional seats," apparently based on the number of theoretically-vulnerable GOP freshmen who got upgraded from swing or light-blue seats to light-red seats instead. (David Jarman)

SC Pres-by-CD: We have presidential numbers from seven more districts, this time from the state of South Carolina. The nascent trend that we're seeing in Pres-by-CD results of Obama improving his standing over four years ago in heavily-minority districts continues to develop, with the black-majority SC-06 showing a swing just short of 1 percent towards the president. Despite the state having swung against Obama by about a point overall, the POTUS just about held the line in the two other districts with sizeable Black populations, SC-02 and SC-05. (And as we've seen elsewhere, the most Appalachian of the state's districts, SC-04, recorded the sharpest decline.) As always, we've added these to our full chart, which you'll want to keep bookmarked.

State Legislatures: You've probably noticed that at the U.S. House level, 2012 worked as something of a "re-aligning" election, with few Dems surviving in red districts and even fewer GOPers making it out of blue districts. The same re-aligning trend seems to be working in the state legislatures, if not accelerating even more than in the House: There are now 25 legislatures with true supermajorities, up from 13 only four years ago. In addition, there are only three states left (Iowa, Kentucky, and New Hampshire) where control of the chambers is split. As you'd expect, the supermajority trend isn't happening in the swing states (with the exception of North Carolina, where the GOP benefitted from an aggressive new gerrymander) but in the red and blue states (with California, Illinois, Georgia, and Indiana joining the supermajority club). (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Apparently, in West Virginia... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, fladem, Adam B, Sylv

    President Obama delivered the worst performance for a Democratic nominee since 1864. Take this with a grain of salt, because I ascertained this after cruising through the history of election results on Our Campaigns, so it's not from an official government source or anything.

    However, if West Virginia ends up resulting in the President gaining just a single percentage point, he will have outpaced George McGovern's performance, so it would only be the worst performance for a Democratic nominee since 1972.

    West Virginia is, to say what countless others have said, very clearly turning against us.

    18, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:36:13 AM PST

    •  yes, it does not look good long-term (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, jncca

      Places like West Virginia and Kentucky have resisted the red shift that other southern states faced 15-20 years ago by having strong mining interests, and the miners that worked there. As the mining process streamlines, there are fewer miners working at each mine, and the old retirees are dying off. Once the older generation in West Virginia dies off, I suspect it will vote more like Tennessee than Ohio.

      •  We don't need 50 states, Dean notwithstanding (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, Involuntary Exile

        Sucks to be them, though.

        You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

        by Rich in PA on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:02:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  50? No, we don't need 50. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          But it would be nice to have more than 20-ish. We don't want to be a regional party, even if those regions can get us to 270 and 50.1%. It isn't good to try and tiptoe that rope long term, especially considering how the senate works. If we just abandon 25 states, we will never hold the senate. Remember, we are pretty much Maxed out in terms of senators in blue states. the entire Northeast has all if 2 Republicans, the west coast has 1 even if you include Alaska. We have all but one of the senate seats in the competitive Rocky Mountain states. The fact of the matter is if the red state Democratic senators were gone, we would be in the minority. If you throw out the senators from the states Democrats have ZERO chance of winning in presidential elections, we are already under 50 votes just counting Begich, Pryor, Rockefeller, Manchin, Landrieu and Johnson.

          •  Assuming perfect alignment... (0+ / 0-)

            Obama won 26 states.  This means that if every state's Senate alignment was identical to the 2012 results, we'd have 54 senators.  Add in NC (which should lean D soon), and we'll hit 56.  Add in Georgia, Texas, and Arizona (which should lean our way by 2024 or so), and we get to 62.  

            Just looking over the current blue state senators we could get, I count one in ME, NH, PA, OH, IL, WI, FL, IA, and NV.  Nine seats is nothing to sneeze at.  

            Of course, perfect alignment will never happen.  I think that realignment isn't happening everywhere the same.  In the South (which sadly, includes WV these days), the Democrats are dying out as a party).  But I don't see any evidence that split-ticket voting is dead in states like Alaska, Montana, or North Dakota.  

            •  I just don't see that as a viable path forward (0+ / 0-)

              Banking on holding to every senate seat in every state Obama carried while thumbing our noses at the other 24 states as a party is not going to give us 52 seats, it just won't happen. Plus, I think you are much more overly optimistic about states trending than I am. Texas got redder in 2012, and Hispanics in Texas, particularly in West Texas, do not vote like their counterparts in Colorado or Nevada. I don't see Texas as being in our column for a long long time, if ever.

              •  I don't think of it as thumbing our nose... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                But I do recognize that.

                1.  Even if Mary Landrieu survives 2014, we don't have any bench of electable Democrats left in Louisiana once she's gone.  
                2.  Arkansas and West Virginia are trending away from us hardcore.  We stand a better shot than Louisiana there, but despite the Democratic roots of both states, our counting on the Senate seats there is pretty ridiculous.  

                We should obviously look for the best candidate possible in every state.  Things like Indiana happen after all.  But when a formerly die-hard Democratic state like West Virginia becomes the fifth-most-Republican state in the country (at least on a presidential level) the writing is on the wall).  In most of the south we won't come back until the minority voter share is so high that it plus the few white liberals can build a governing coalition.  No point in chasing after the old order when the new one is arriving.  

                As to Texas, keep in mind since the country swung a bit to the right, but Texas barely moved, the PVI actually inched a bit to the left.  Obama seemly did even better with Latino voters than in 2008, judging by his big vote gains in the Latino counties of South and West Texas.  It's just that he fell further among white voters in rural areas as well.  

                •  I think we should be expanding into new areas (0+ / 0-)

                  But it shouldn't come at the expense of existing ones. Yes, Arkansas is going hard the other direction, but that doesn't mean we should abandon Pryor in 2014. Areas like Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina are good targets. I don't think Texas is anywhere in the realm. Obama lost Texas by 16, and it isn't exactly like it's getting closer. The growing minority population is just not enough to make up for the more regular,very conservative Republicans in the state.

                  There are only 14 states Obama did WORSE in than Texas: West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah.

                  We should be focusing on expanding on states where Obama got within 10 points or better: North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia. We shouldn't be stretching ourselves too think by expanding into long-unwinable areas that have shown no interest in electing Democrats to anything. But at the same time, we need to keep the Democratic seats in red states in our column as long as humanly possible. It is always easier to defend a seat than to go after a seat.

            •  I'd also like to see… (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              …D.C. and Puerto Rico become states.

              Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

              by DemSign on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 12:22:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Speak for yourself (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DemSign, Kitsap River, DaveW

          For me, I'd like to convince many, if not a majority, of people in all 50 states that Democrats are sane and won't eat their babies. And I think it's unfortunate that we're not willing to spend, say, 10% of the money that we spend on presidential elections doing that instead.

      •  But Democrats are still strong in Kentucky (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The state party has adapted well, or maybe never needed to adapt because it's always been a good fit, but either way it's been strong with no sign of ebbing.  I don't know how they do it.  Maybe Ernie Fletcher just slowed down an inevitable shift to the GOP that's still coming, but for now it looks like Democrats are strong in state offices and the state legislature for the indefinite future.

        I guess the real test will come if and when some of these strong state-level Dems try for federal office.  Kentucky voters seem to make a sharp distinction between the state party and national party, and what will happen when the twain meet?

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:35:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure if I'd say strong... (0+ / 0-)

          Stronger, yes.  But they still lost three seats to the Republicans in the State House, who also picked up an open seat.  The margin is down to 10 now.  

          Frankly, I think it's inevitable, although it will take awhile.  The movement of Coal Country away from Obama (and Chandler) will eventually filter down ticket, and my understanding is without Coal Country, there isn't a natural alliance to hold the state house.  Once the State House falls to Republicans, Democrats may maintain some statewide executive offices (as in North Carolina), but it will become more difficult to recruit good candidates, and progressively harder to retain open seats.  It could go the way of Republican super-majorities without the Democrats ever losing the governorship.  

          •  I think strong (0+ / 0-)

            That's not much of a loss, they still have a 10-seat edge in the lower chamber.  Yes they're down in the state Senate, but they hold most statewide offices with people no one complains of as hard-right conservaDems.

            The WV Dems really talk up their right-wing bona fides, guns and abortion and prayer and coal and openly diss Obama.

            The Kentucky Dems seem not to do that so much.  Beshear, for his part, openly endorsed Obama right before Beshear's big reelection win.  Granted he was up by a massive margin against a hapless GOP challenger, but still that was a far cry from what anyone would do in WV.

            I think it comes down to numbers, there are a lot more black voters and white liberals in Kentucky than in WV.  "Lot more" still isn't a lot, but WV is down to next to nothing as far as liberals go.  There is nothing like Jefferson County in WV.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:37:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Obama lost every county in WV (7+ / 0-)

      I think some of it is racial but long term WV seems to be gone. They still vote democratic locally but a WV democrat is not a MD democrat.
      My guess if Hillary ran in 2016 she would do pretty good in WV but not win it.

    •  West Va. and Oklahoma (6+ / 0-)

      are culturally similar and are Obama's two worst states.   At least West Va. is pretty and has mountains in parts (where the coal companies have not taken them).  Oklahoma is just butt-ugly in many parts.

      W.Va. and Okla. also are resource extraction states (petroleum and coal) and lack cultrual diversity (even among whites).

      The Appalachian/Scots-Irish culture in those places has a high degee of racism/white supremacy ideals and anti-cosmopolitanism.  There also is a long-held suspicion of education and extreme Protestant fundamentalism.  

      Obama is cultured, intellectual, cosmopolitan (at home in various cultures), well-educated, and BLACK.  Thus many in those states despise him.  

      The rainbow that is America is passing them by.  So long as they chose hate and ignorance, they will keep falling behind.

      I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

      by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:04:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  WORD (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Completely agree...from many comments I have read from voters in W VA particularly during the primary when Obama lost to a convict (!), the race issue is the deciding factor.

      •  Utah and Wyoming are (5+ / 0-)

        Obama's worst states and it's not that close.

        OK and WV have a much higher percentage of white Obama voters than places like MS, AL, and LA.  No reason to single out those states out for racism and "ignorance.". Obama does not share the values of the vast majority of WV and OK voters.  I think that's a good thing.  Calling it racism is unproven and probably counterproductive.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:29:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You may be correct about (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, stevenaxelrod

          Utah and Wy, but Okla and W.Va. are very anti-Obama.  A lot of it is racism.  Denying it is counterproductive.  Talk to folks there.  There is much racism.  

          I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

          by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:32:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  How did JC Watts (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, DCCyclone, jncca

            get to be a Congressman in OK with all those racists?  Doesn't that pretty well prove OK voters will elect a black man who they believe shares their values?  There is racism in New York City and Los Angeles.  It is everywhere.  Yeah, it is worse in the South.  Yeah it is worse in WV and OK than a lot of places.  But it is worse still in the Deep South. The main issue is that the Democratic platform is not consistent with the values of the majority of voters in these states, and it shouldn't be.  Racism is out there, but it is a secondary (or less) factor.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:43:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not every white person in (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Oklahoma or West Virginia is a racist.  But as you say:

              Yeah it is worse in WV and OK than a lot of places
              I believe a large degree of antipathy from Appalachian- culture folks toward Barack Obama is racism.  
              The main issue is that the Democratic platform is not consistent with the values of the majority of voters in these states, and it shouldn't be.
              The Democratic platform includes re-electing a black man.

              Yes, some vote on fundie Christian ideals.  Some poor whites vote because they want riich people to pay less taxes.

              I think one must see racism as it is.  The huge wave of hate from certain whites toward Obama in the last 4 years has more than a bit of racism in it.

              While there are certainly laudable parts of Appalachian culture, and everyone is an amalgam of various cultures, the "rough-equality-among-whites" going back to Andrew Jackson has a flip side of domination and exploitation on non-whites.

              Yes, many whites throughout America have varying degrees of racism.  And there are plenty of good folks in either state.  

              But both choose to be left behind by history.  


              I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

              by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:51:35 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  And JC Watts was no Allan West (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, DCCyclone

              He rose in the Republican leadership in part because of his willingness to make deals, something anathametic to today's Tea Party. Watts did quit when he hit a glass ceiling of another kind in the Republican leadership.

              But that is not related to anything in Oklahoma.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:52:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  P.S. Southern Missouri (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, stevenaxelrod

              fits also.  It's why my state is so backward.  People in the St. Louis region (city and suburbs) voted for Obama by a large majority, but the rural vote gave it to Romney.  And a good amount of it is racist.  

              I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

              by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:54:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Oklahoma's new House speaker (0+ / 0-)

              is also a black conservative. The state is insular and has many racist areas but I agree that labeling the entire state as racist makes no sense.

              21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

              by gigantomachyusa on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:31:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  While I love many of your diaries (0+ / 0-)

            This statement:

            Denying it is counterproductive.
            suggests a lack of tolerance for other points of view.

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I was just mimicking his (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              statement that "Calling it racism is unproven and probably counterproductive."

              I do not see any of my statements to be a lack of tolerance for his or her views.  I just disagree.  I don';t think he was being intolerant when he said that.  He just disagreed with me.  No big deal.

              I think racism drives a lot of votes in those states.  He thinks other factors do.  I doubt it is empirically proveable one way or another because whites in both states will not admit racism to pollsters.  

              I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

              by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:01:35 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't personally have a problem with (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                anything you have said in terms of being disrespectful to me.  Obviously I disagree with a lot of it on the merits.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:53:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  But, calling it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          spiderdem, jncca

          racism is so much easier and makes us better than them!

          "The government of the many, not the government of the money" - Nancy Pelosi

          by Americantrueandblue on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:24:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  In addition... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Obama hit rock bottom in Oklahoma it seems - and he didn't fall far from 2008.  He lost votes, but roughly in proportion with national swing.  In OK-05 (Oklahoma City), he basically performed the same as 2012.  

      •  The Scots-Irish thing (6+ / 0-)

        Remember the maps which were put together in 2008 on the Obama-Clinton primaries?  Here's one I found. It's fascinating.

        •  That is excellent. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I read a good back last year about the regional cultures by Colin Woodward.  It builds on David Hackett Fisher's book from years ago: Albion's Seed.

           AMERICAN NATIONS, A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

          The concept can be overdone, and it's cetainly not deterministic, but there is something there.

          The voting patterns show that, as in your link.  

          I'm glad Barack Obama is our President.

          by TomP on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:08:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was going to mention Fisher's Albion's Seed too. (0+ / 0-)

            Fisher's fourth and last major wave of British immigration, in the 18th century, was from Scotland, northern England, and northern Ireland, where many individuals were enculturated by endless border wars and clan rivalries. They settled inland from earlier British immigrants and spread to the west. Distrust of those perceived as other was a characteristic of this immigration wave. Perhaps that trait endures and flourishes in our own era of cultural change.

      •  Oklahoma is not butt ugly (0+ / 0-)

        East of Tulsa, Oklahoma is incredibly beautiful with the Ozarks and hundreds of manmade lakes. It also has countless waterfalls, the Boston Mountains, amazing wildlife and bigfoot! Between Tulsa and Oklahoma City you see a transition from a more Southern climate to a more prairie climate so you have a mix but it's certainly not ugly and there are trees everywhere. From OKC to the Panhandle it's pretty much the archetypal prairie area like Kansas or Nebraska. The Panhandle area is where the terrain gets more rugged, the dirt gets redder, and you get beautiful formations like Black Mesa. I feel like sending you an Oklahoma brochure now. There's a reason why Hollywood is starting to make a ton of movies in Oklahoma and that's because it has a very varied landscape.

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

        by gigantomachyusa on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:30:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oklahoma does have some pretty areas (0+ / 0-)

        was looking through a photo book the other day for work-related reasons.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 06:01:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  West Virginia is against the green energy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Americantrueandblue, askew

      movement, especially the move to natural gas-fired power plants to replace coal-fired plants.  The president's push for green energy and the rejection of the claim of "clean coal," along with the obsenity of mountaintop removal and technology advances in mining, has and will continue to reduce the number of coal mining jobs.  That's a very worrying prospect for WV voters, and they can't be blamed for voting against the foremost advocate for green energy in the country.

      The state needs to spend much more of its time retraining its workers and diversifying its economy and a lot less trying to protect the mining industry from its inevitable future.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:43:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Haiku (5+ / 0-)

    Crazy teabagger
    Not in congress any more
    America won

    "Doing My Part to Piss Off the Religious Right" - A sign held by a 10-year old boy on 9-24-05

    by Timbuk3 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:38:52 AM PST

  •  I hope Murphy doesn't become a blue dog. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bepanda, bear83, Nica24

    His interview last night left me with more questions that answers.  He gave non-answers when asked if he would support the Presidents' agenda.  

    "With all due respect, that's a bunch of malarky". - V.P. Joe Biden

    by Taxmancometh on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:59:08 AM PST

    •  he sounded very blue dog (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      He mentioned something about a million dollar level for higher taxes. He is representing a republican district with a lot of well off people so he will not be very progressive.
      Anyway anything is better than West.

    •   Strong Progressive - (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I clicked on the strong progressive link in the FL-18 paragraph above to see why Murphy was labeled as such.  The link goes to his Orange to Blue Questionnaire  - which as I understand- needed to be acceptable in order to receive DKos related fundraising.  Comparing the questionnaire answers to the appearance on the Ed Show - well let me just say that the phrase "flip-flop" comes to mind.  That said, I'd rather have a blue dog than a Republican.

    •  he already is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but still better then west, on the the hand if he keeps taking con positions on issues he might not be the shining light he seemed when positioned against a mad man like west, we need progressives not gop lights in congress.

    •  Thank you, I did not like the interview! (0+ / 0-)

      I was not feeling progressive about anything he said and I surely did not like the fact he wouldn't give a direct answer to the question of supporting the president on taxes! I am happy he is replacing Alen West, and I understand he is representing a difficult district, but come on, the people knew what voting for a Dem this time meant. I don't want to hear all this bi-partisan, we must bring jobs and be carefull about taxes crap. He was voted in to raise taxes no matter what area he is from.

      Republicans piss on you and tell you it's raining, Democrats hand you an umbrella!

      by Nica24 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:36:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA - Sen - wonderful news from Sen Warner that (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, SueDe, itskevin, Nica24

    he will not be running for Gov.  One assumes he would run for reelection to his Senate seat instead - and if so, he would be an odds on favorite, possibly even a "safe" favorite.  Not having to raise the millions of $ to save a Dem Virginia Senate seat is a huge help to Democrats.  Another way of looking at it is that Virginia is solid Dem both Senators for at least the next 6 years - so we can focus our finite resources in other states.

    •  VA is a political conundrum. (0+ / 0-)

      How a state can send Dem's to the Senate while sending mostly Republicans to the House and electing rabid right-wingers to high office in their state government is a real brain-twister.  Even after taking redistricting into account, it seems schizophrenic.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:53:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's no brain-twister, it's very simple (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, jncca, SueDe

        State and local elections are staggered here, in odd-numbered years, never meeting the federal cycles.

        So lots of young voters and middle-aged and older nonwhites who show up for Presidential elections just don't show up for state and local elections.

        And those are our voters!

        So the turnout model is much worse for us in state and local races, and we struggle more, and then the GOP further kills us with gerrymandering.

        There's nothing schizophrenic, we just haven't been able to drag enough of our voters our of their houses in the state and local races.  We do it well where I am in Fairfax County, but not in most of the state.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:41:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  off-year elections and state and local (0+ / 0-)

          elections are a real challenge for Democrats.  Republicans' success at the state level makes our bench shallow with fewer Democratic state officials and legislators available to run for national office.  Republican voters seem to be kept angry enough to motivate them to vote in every election.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:56:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Yeah! Now, what we (0+ / 0-)

       could use in Florida is a whole lot more OFA and/or DFA i get them mixed up.  To register more Dems and to get more Dems. out to vote in the up coming ( already?) Mid term elections - 2014.  Florida needs to turn bluer!!

  •  Obama now at 52.65% in CO, just 52.54% in PA. (0+ / 0-)

    If this stands it looks like PA, not CO, was this year's "Tipping Point State" by Nate's definition.

  •  Patrick Murphy may be the youngest in congress (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Getting elected there in your twenties is a relatively rare thing, and getting rarer.

    The youngest person in the 112th congress was Aaron Schock (IL-18), at 31.

  •  query (0+ / 0-)

    Given Murphy's evident progressive leanings, does he give any rationale for why he was ever a Republican?  I find that confusing.

  •  West's defeat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, sacman701

    is at least in part due to the fair elections law that was passed in 2010 which limited the ability of the GOP to draw the lines.  

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:28:53 AM PST

  •  I sincerely hope CPA Patrick Murphy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    comes to understand the difference between the federal budget and the budgets of those individuals and companies  for whom he conducted auditing services of their operations during his tenure with Deloitte & Touche.  If not, he's liable to become a Blue Dog where government finances are concerned.

    I do believe he'll be a consistent voice against the excesses of big energy companies, though, which will be refreshing.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:30:02 AM PST

    •  Patrick Murphy (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, sulthernao, jncca, erichiro

      Strikes me as moderate-leaning but not a Blue Dog. He explicitly promised not to join the Blue Dog Coalition and that would be a difficult promise to break. He may be in a swing district, but I think he knows he couldn't have won without progressive financial and grassroots support and he won't betray us. I think he will be a very strong voice on the environment--wealthy, coastal Republicans want the beaches to be around for their heirs, and in this area, many are pretty sensible about protecting the Everglades, clean water, and wildlife. Murphy will be one of the few in Congress with actual knowledge and experience about these issues (he ran an environmental firm and helped clean up after the BP oil spill) so if he isn't as progressive as we like on some budget issues, I think this makes up for it.

      As for the Bush tax cuts, he may prefer a $1 million threshold, but the options he will actually have will be $250,000 or everything. I think when he actually has to vote, he will support President Obama.

      "No, Governor Romney, corporations are not people. People have hearts, they have kids, they get jobs, they get sick, they cry, they dance. They live, they love, and they die. And that matters." --Elizabeth Warren

      by foreverblue on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:02:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Polltopia - Illinois with 56%? (0+ / 0-)

    What's that about?

    I'd like to see the Massachusetts 2014 Senate race, with and without Kerry and Brown.

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:02:42 AM PST

  •  Does West get to keep (0+ / 0-)

     his unused campaign contribution for personal use other than running again?

    If you don't want to be kept in the dark and lathered with horse dung, stop acting like a mushroom.

    by nomorerepukes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:05:40 AM PST

  •  House Question? (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone know what the official final tally is now on House seats?  What's the breakdown of r & D seats in the new Congress, and how many did we pick-up in the end?

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:07:22 AM PST

  •  Joe Baca needs to go away. (0+ / 0-)

    But he has spawned a whole generation of Bacas to fill the void. It's Blue Dog Bacas all the way down! Ugh.

    I am progressive. I am liberal. I make no apologies. - Kos

    My political compass: - 8.38,-6.97

    by pucklady on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:19:38 AM PST

  •  Patrick Murphy (0+ / 0-)

    I only caught a little bit (I was in the shower) and I'm not sure I'm correct so I apologize if I'm wrong in advance.

    I thought I heard Patrick on Ed's Show last night already hinting that he'd recommend and support a tax increase on $1M income earners and more.

    If this is correct --- Patrick the number is $250,000 according to the Pres.

    Who do you believe, Waffle Willard or Lyin' Ryan???

    by Da Rock on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 10:29:34 AM PST

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