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total popular vote 2012

David Wasserman's ongoing total popular vote count

Note that Mitt Romney is closing in on the ironic 47% vote total. Meanwhile, Obama leads by 4 million votes. And Obama's overall totals are off his 2008 numbers by ~ 2%. That, in a campaign aimed solely at swing states. So will Romney get there?

Greg Sargent:

When all the votes are counted, could Mitt Romney really end up achieving perfect poetic justice by finishing with  47 percent of the national vote? Yup. Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says new votes in from Maryland put Romney at 47.56 percent. He predicts with certainty that with all of New York and California counted, Romney will end up below 47.5 percent of the vote.

Once the Ohio provisionals are counted seems likely North Carolina ends up as closest state in the country besides Florida
@ppppolls via web
In 46 states and the District of Columbia, President Obama did worse in 2012 than he did in 2008, winning by less or losing by more. The vote in most counties, too, shifted to the political right.

But separating out the national political environment from more fundamental and potentially longer-lasting political shifts at the state level is harder. Relative to the national popular vote, the picture is muddled: 29 states and the District of Columbia shifted toward Mr. Obama, and 21 states shifted toward the Republican Party. But the partisan lean in most states moved only slightly, and only one state flipped from leaning toward one party to the other.

U.S. Deficit Shrinking At Fastest Pace Since WWII, Before Fiscal Cliff
@ritholtz via Twitpic

The stupid. It burns.

Dean Chambers, the man behind the “Unskewed Polls” website, has a launched a new website declaring the election was stolen by Democrats.

The website,, identifies four “black states” Chambers claims were stolen by President Obama through massive voter fraud and suppression operations. According to the website, Democratic ballot stuffing was the reason Obama carried the critical swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida.

Politico talks to someone smart:
“It’s about the candidate. It’s about the message. It’s about where they’re going to lead this country with a vision,” [Jim] Messina said at POLITICO’s Playbook Breakfast on Tuesday in his first on-camera interview since the election. “Because that’s why millions of Americans went online and signed up for Obama for America. It wasn’t because they got a sexy T-shirt…It wasn’t because of the great bumper sticker. It was because they deeply believed in Barack Obama.”

Here are 10 things about campaigning Messina learned along the way:

Post first-debate there were 29 polls conducted in Colorado. You know how many had Obama's lead at 5+ pts (where it is now). 1. That was PPP
@ForecasterEnten via web

Tom Friedman touts the fiberoptic backbone in Chattanooga:
How fast is that Chattanooga choo-choo? The majority of Chattanooga homes and businesses get 50 megabits per second, some 100 megabits, a few 250 and those with big needs opt for a full gigabit per second, explained Harold DePriest, the chief executive of EPB, the city’s electric power and telecom provider, which built and operates the network. “The average around the country is 4.5 megabits per second.” So average Internet speed in Chattanooga is 10 times the national average. That doesn’t just mean faster downloads. The fiber grid means 150,000 Chattanooga homes now have smart electric meters to track their energy consumption in real time. More important, said DePriest, on July 5, Chattanooga got hit with an unusual storm that knocked out power to 80,000 homes. Thanks to intelligent power switching on the fiber network, he said, “42,000 homes had their electricity restored in ... 2 seconds.” Old days: 17 hours.

That network was fully completed thanks to $111 million in stimulus money. Imagine that we get a grand bargain in Washington that also includes a stimulus of just $20 billion to bring the 200 biggest urban areas in America up to Chattanooga’s standard. You’d see a “melt-up” in the U.S. economy. We are so close to doing something big and smart. Somebody needs to tell the Congress.

If only Obama weren't so... small, Tom says. If only the GOP got out of the way, sez I.

For reasons unclear to any sentient human, Jennifer Rubin still has a job at the Washington Post. She'll be writing "Benghazi is a scandal" columns until 2052. Then again, the GOP has nothing else they want to to talk about. P.S. No one buys this stuff. Benghazi was a tragedy, not a scandal.

Dana Milbank:

In truth, Petraeus’s behavior doesn’t even merit the label “scandal.” L’affaire Petraeus lacks every element of the definition.
Brad DeLong:
Two criticisms of Nate Silver that may be valid:

Silver introduces noise into his estimates by placing weight on a not very well-founded model of fundamentals-- witness his failure to get the North Dakota Senate race right.

Silver's model on election eve did not say that Obama had a 90% chance, it said Obama has a 99% chance. But Silver introduced a fudge factor: a completely arbitrary 20% chance that this model was completely wrong, and hence a 10% chance of a Romney victory. He would have been better advised to say: "My model says Obama has it nailed, but my model might be wrong--pulling a number out of the air, if you think there's a 20% chance that I have my head completely up my #%$, you can assign Romney a 10% chance. That would have aided communication.

And, below the fold, a [big] bunch of criticisms of Silver and hunch-based forecasts that are not valid:

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Comment Preferences

  •  Chambers isn't stupid at all... (11+ / 0-)

    ...indeed, he well knows that the end of an election does not mean the end of the grift.

    He was making a butt-load of money off the unskewed polls scam.  The same idiots who clicked him then will do so again.

    "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

    by RIposte on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:36:22 AM PST

  •  I'll lie a little bit (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    politicalceci, skohayes

    and gladly round down that number to 47% :D

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:38:59 AM PST

  •  Dean Chambers needs a shrink (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, politicalceci, skohayes

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:41:01 AM PST

  •  ... (15+ / 0-)
    Obama Favorability (NJ) : Favorable  61.0% Unfavorable  32.0% (Nov. 17 - Rutgers-Eagleton)
    @PollTracker via Polltracker

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:44:24 AM PST

    •  more... (15+ / 0-)
      Eighty-one percent of New Jerseyans believe
      the two politicians showed “needed cooperation and bipartisanship,” compared to only 12 percent who
      think Christie “went too far in his praise” of the president.    

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:45:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  12%.......It's a Jersey Thing. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        politicalceci, skohayes
      •  So Republican donors and activists (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Outraged Mom, mdmslle, vcmvo2

        are claiming that Christie was "too close" to the president during the first days after Sandy, and those optics has endangered Christie's chances for a future Republican nomination for president.  Makes sense - the Republicans' relying on a radicalized 12% of their voter base to determine who their candidates for national office will be and expecting those voters to carry them over the top.

        "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

        by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:01:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  You really have to give Christie credit, (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, vcmvo2, snazzzybird, 417els

        that was a risky move right before the election.  He may have lost some national support, but he probably just won reelection as governor.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:04:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He also likely got more Federal $$$$ (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          glitterscale, skohayes, SueDe, vcmvo2, 417els

          Governors who cooperate closely with FEMA are likely to do better at securing FEMA / Federal funding for both the emergency response and the reconstruction efforts. I don't mean because FEMA plays politics (I have no evidence of that). But if you have a collaborative relationship, you can understand exactly what FEMA needs and what they can offer, and tailor your requests and policies and information to that.

          Mayor Bloomberg might want to pay attention and take a different approach next time around.

        •  maybe ... Or maybe he can do math (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes, mzbitca, bear83, snazzzybird

          If he wins re-election and survives the primaries he will have some really good press.  He'd never win NY, but he could take NJ and PA and maybe OH...

          •  He's definitely got his eye (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            on 2016.
            But he will never be able to put up with the campaign schedule of a presidential candidate if he doesn't lose some weight.
            I think this last campaign, Obama aged about 5 years (I think I aged about 10!).

            “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

            by skohayes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:54:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have thought it but haven't ever said it before (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              You are right .... Whatever one thinks about the man, his obesity is a real health threat to him, and a grueling campaign would, to paraphrase Nietzsche, either kill him or make him healthier (by losing a couple hundred pounds)

            •  Unless the goop does a 180, he's still too sane to (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skohayes, CA wildwoman

              get the nomination.  They created a Frankenstein monster and whether or not they can control it is iffy.

              President Obama seems to have gotten gray hair in a short period of time. Must be true that stress really can do it.

              "Evil is a lack of empathy, a total incapacity to feel with their fellow man." - Capt. Gilbert,Psychiatrist, at the end of Nuremberg trials.

              by 417els on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:57:41 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Chambers (10+ / 0-)

    has a tough sell on the voter fraud issue when every state he identified had its election controlled by Republicans.  

    Frankly, it was likely only Republican voter suppression efforts that even kept some of those states close enough to be called swing states.  

    And Pennsylvania?!  Seriously?!  Good luck finding the math to explain any possibility that fraud could have tipped the scales there.

    By the way, what is "ballot stuffing".  Seems to me what one the election for Obama was what we call "voting".

    •  Ugh (5+ / 0-)

      This stupid thing seriously auto-corrected "won" into "one"?  Ridiculous.

    •  he's latching on to reports that in some AA precin (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, mdmslle

      in some 57 or 59 African-American voting divisions (called  "precincts" in other areas) Obama got 100% of the votes cast and Romney got none.  Not surprising when you consider those voters and what Romney and the GOP were offering them in terms of policies this election and in prior elections.  Has happened in prior elections also in Phila - in 2008 and earlier.  But 2012 was such a stark contrast that Obama had even more of these.  Considering that Obama got 85% plus of the votes in some nearly all-white Philadelphia divisions (Ward 5, Div 5 or 7 in center city - liberals, gays, college students, elderly Jewish, etc. voters), not so hard to understand how he got those other 15% of voters in divisions that are all African-American.  

      •  The Philadelphia Inquirer (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle, bear83, askew

        even tracked down some registered Republicans in those wards, and some had moved, some knew they were registered Republicans but voted for Obama and some were not aware they were registered as Republicans, and voted for Obama.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:33:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  One of the stories (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle, Minnesota Deb, askew

      he pointed to is of 56 precincts (actually they were wards, which are much smaller) in Philadelphia that had 0 votes for Romney. Of course they're 99% registered Democrat wards that are predominately African American,  and it's quite plausible that no one voted for him, but to Chambers ignorant mind, that makes it fraud.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:21:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I know what "ballot stuffing" used to mean, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, Minnesota Deb

      but I think the term as used by Chambers means that voter suppression efforts in  states he designated as black weren't draconian enough, thereby allowing too many Democratic voters to have their votes actually counted.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:42:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Another thought (0+ / 0-)

      If Obama stole the votes in some swing states, how does Chambers account for his winning by nearly 6 points in Iowa or more than 5 in Colorado or nearly 7 in NV?

      These were all "toss-up" states in the run-up to the election. Why didn't he have to steal these to win?

    •  That was once ballot-box stuffing (0+ / 0-)

      as in the case of "Landslide" Lyndon Johnson long ago. A hundred ballots in the same hand mysteriously turned up several days after the election, and Johnson was able to get a friendly judge in Texas to quash the investigation.

      America—We built that!

      by Mokurai on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:27:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cowardly Lyin’ – Lindsey Graham (R-SC) (4+ / 0-)

    Cowardly Lyin’ – from Abu Ghraib to Benghazi – Lindsey Graham’s Partisan Legacy

    "The Right’s right is so freakish, so grotesque, so ignorant that now, by simply admitting certain incontrovertible realities, a standard issue conservative may apply for and receive that most cherished DC membership – a pass to Club Mod. So it is in the day of Sarah Palin and teabaggery that admiring the roundness of the earth is revealing your exceptionalism as a Republican.

    "Still, the beltway types trip over themselves to call conservatives like Graham moderates. Beltway types like to be lied to. And, closet cases (reactionaries, that is) like Graham like to lie to them. It makes everybody feelbetter. Especially when those lies come in the form of Graham’s signature whimpering earnestness."

    Full Article: Cowardly Lyin’ – Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

    ~ truth through reason ~

    by heycoachb on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:49:59 AM PST

  •  The terrible fear that someone understands things (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, Stude Dude

    that you don't, that you are NOT the smartest kid in the room   . . .

    Nate Silver is scary!!!!!

    "Let's see what fresh fuckwittery these dolts can contrive to torment themselves with this time." -- Iain Banks, The Hydrogen Sonata

    by Rikon Snow on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:50:19 AM PST

  •  It is just as amazing to me (5+ / 0-)

    that Tom Friedman still has a job as it is that Jennifer Rubin still has a job.  Friedman has been a blowhard - and wrong - a lot longer than has Rubin.  He's just not as obviously partisan.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:52:51 AM PST

  •  I love reading about (16+ / 0-)

    the Obama campaign workings re: Politico Jim Messina interview. I have a sister in Colorado who knocked on doors for 10 weeks + and when the campaign flipped to GOTV efforts about 2 weeks before the election she went to a briefing/training session. She was absolutely blown away at the organization/planning/use of technology in this last phase. Chief technology officer Harper Reed is a genius.

    I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

    by hulibow on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:53:52 AM PST

    •  I knocked doors in Nevada (13+ / 0-)

      and as Messina noted, in my neighborhood.  As I slogged along I kept thinking "Mitt has millions in donors and Super Pac $$$, but he doesn't have ME!"  :)

      Reading what Messina said about door knockers made me proud.  But it wasn't just about having doors slammed in your face, many contacts were glad to see us and we brought important early voting info to the people who could, and did use it.  A great experience.

      •  you folks are exactly why (10+ / 0-)

        we won.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:43:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  What Greg said (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LongRider, tb mare, vcmvo2

        thanks from the bottom of my feeling helpless living in a red state heart.

        I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

        by hulibow on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:58:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Even in Red states, there is something to work for (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Here in Purplest Indiana we knocked out Mourdock and Superintendent for Public Instruction Tony Bennett, through their own absurdities plus our GOTV, even though we had no real hope of taking the state Blue for President Obama again, or keeping the ever-egregious Mike Pence from becoming Governor.

          Nate Silver published a model some time back that shows even Mississippi and Alabama tipping on LGBT rights some time around 2024, if current trends continue. Of course, we have passed the tipping point, and support is accelerating, so it could be a bit sooner. Other issues will follow.

          America—We built that!

          by Mokurai on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:48:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Rec'd for (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hulibow, CA wildwoman
        "Mitt has millions in donors and Super Pac $$$, but he doesn't have ME!"  :)

        "I'm totally pro-choice in the matter of abortion. But of course I'm also so radically pro-life that I think every person from birth onward must have full and affordable access to healthcare." - Gail Collins

        by gritsngumbo on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 08:42:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He didn't have the Internet, he didn't have the (0+ / 0-)

          ground game, and he didn't have the issues. As Sen. Linsey Graham, R-SC, has pointed out publicly, there are not enough angry White men to win elections any more.

          I…I say, have you…have you seen this rather interesting item in The Times? 'Government officials are concerned by the alarming decrease in the number of Englishmen per capita'…

          Now Bulldog, you've heard about this mysterious disappearance of Englishmen. In one year, twenty-five million have vanished.

          England is short of Englishmen?


          Are Welshmen short too?


          Spike Milligan, Peter Sellers, Harry Secombe, The Goon Show, BBC. Emperor of the Universe
          Series 7, Episode 14

          First broadcast 3rd January 1957.

          America—We built that!

          by Mokurai on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:02:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Subtle (6+ / 0-)
    The website,, identifies four “black states” Chambers claims were stolen by President Obama
    Understanding of the target audience is strong with this one.

    On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

    by stevemb on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:55:12 AM PST

  •  I noticed my state was one of the "black" (7+ / 0-)

    stolen states, so I went to see how it was stolen.

    For the entire evening, as the vote totals were coming in, Mitt Romney lead in Virginia and continued to lead up to the point where 97% of the voting divisions were counted in Virginia and Romney held a 50 percent to 49 percent lead, enough of a lead that should have been upheld with only three percent of the votes left to be counted.
    When they finished counting the votes in the state, at the last minute the total went to 51.1 percent to 47.4 percent in favor of Obama, after showing a lead of 1-4 percent lead in favor of Romney the entire night. That raises the question, where in the state where those last voters counted from and reported from? The answer to that will probably answer to where the votes came from.
    Shorter: I want to think they stole it because it felt so good when we were ahead.

    To keep our faces turned toward change, and behave as free spirits in the presence of fate--that is strength undefeatable. (Helen Keller)

    by kareylou on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 04:59:04 AM PST

  •  Jennifer Rubin......she must be related to the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ratcityreprobate, skohayes, askew

    owner of the Post....or she has compromising polaroids.

  •  If there was any shift to the right, (0+ / 0-)

    blame it on the RW's "redistricting" plan.  That's how badly the RNC wanted to win.

     They threw in everything but the kitchen sink in order to drive the POTUS out of the White House.

    After all the army of dummy polls and election shenanigans by the RW and media, it is kind of hard to know what is actually the truth.

    "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

    by politicalceci on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:08:16 AM PST

  •  CO: PPP Obama +6, Rasmussen Romney +3 (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, mdmslle, skohayes, tb mare, bear83, askew

    PPP (D)    11/3 - 11/4    1096 LV    3.0    52    46    Obama +6

    Rasmussen Reports    10/29 - 10/29    750 LV    4.0    47    50    Romney +3

  •  Thanks for the roundup, Greg! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hulibow, tb mare, askew

    The "ten things" Jim Messina learned are quite fascinating.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:10:55 AM PST

  •  Not to rub it in (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, skohayes, Stude Dude, carrps, askew, 417els

    But while I was studying the "BarackOFraudo" site to see how my state was stolen, I saw that one of the earlier blog post titles was:

    The bizarre world of Nate Silver's voodoo political predictions (new 10/30)
    At least he left it up there. I'll give him that.

    To keep our faces turned toward change, and behave as free spirits in the presence of fate--that is strength undefeatable. (Helen Keller)

    by kareylou on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:12:36 AM PST

  •  I thought the myth (0+ / 0-)

    that "polling firms that don't call cell phones are inaccurate" was proven wrong.  Messina seems to believe that. longer in SF.... -9.00, -7.38

    by TFinSF on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:30:00 AM PST

  •  I must say, (9+ / 0-)

    Brad DeLong's round up of the right wing critics of Nate Silver is quite enllightening. You can see which ones had no idea of even what Nate Silver was doing, yet felt bold enough to criticize it:

    Peggy Noonan: We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know. I think it’s Romney. I think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’s old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency.
    The ones who know what the polling says, but ignore it anyway in favor of Gallup and Ras:
    Ross Douthat: [I]f the Gallup and Rasmussen assumptions about the likely shape of the electorate are right — and they’ve been close to right in the recent past — then Romney has a very good chance of winning this election, no matter what the RealClearPolitics polling average in Ohio says. And if the projections many pollsters are using for how closely Obama will match his 2008 turnout among young people, blacks, and Hispanics are off-base, then the president risks what Ben Domenech has termed an “undertow” election, in which the wave the White House is counting on drops out from under them instead…. I do have my own… theories about how American politics work, and they incline me to believe in that scenario’s basic plausibility."
    And the ones who simply lie:
    Karl Rove: Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.... [T]he anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do.

    “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

    by skohayes on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:49:43 AM PST

  •  GET OUT OF THE WAY, STUPID! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    Sorry for screaming. I propose we start now and replace the "I'm so tired of the gridlock in Washington," cliche and the "It's the economy, stupid," which has run it's course with the one true, relevant, meaningful phrase for the next election.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:55:05 AM PST

  •  Irony is you're friend (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greg Dworkin, askew

    Romney has 47.28% of the vote in Virginia!!!!

    Takin it to the Streets! time to GOTV

    by totallynext on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 05:59:01 AM PST

  •  Silver's Model (4+ / 0-)

    Silver's model does not, as Brad De Long claims, introduce a 20% chance that it itself is wrong.  It introduces the possibility that herding has caused pollsters as a group to make the same wrong assumptions about the electorate and therefore collectively all make the same mistake.  This apparently has happened before and Silver was quite clear that most of Romney's 9% chance was due to this possibility.  

    In fact, this is exactly what happened.  Of the 22 prolific polls used by Silver, 18 were biased toward the GOP candidate and the average of polls going in underestimated the President by 1% or perhaps a bit more.  In a relatively close race, had that one percent been a bias in the other direction the popular vote, at least, would have had a razor thin margin.

    Anyone doubting the accuracy of Silver's method need only look at the very first projection he  on May 31, which was hardly based on polls at all. That first forecast predicted the actual results and the final forecast within 1/2 a point.

  •  Chambers is brilliant (0+ / 0-)

    He reminds me of S.E. Cupp.

    He'll probably get on Bill Maher soon - she's always on. I've written more than 50 novels, been on the New York Times list two-dozen times, sold more than 20,000,000 books and I'll never get asked to be on Maher. Oh, and let me add that I know more about ANY ISSUE - economic, foreign policy, social policy - than either of these assclowns.

    He is exploiting ideologues for money and fame, and getting more air-time (internet time) than people who actually, you know, think for a living. Consider how many people KNOW his name...yikes.

    Look at him in the paradigm of Ms. Cupp. She burst onto the scene looking exactly like a younger version of Sarah Palin - I am not making this up; when I first saw her, she was coiffed, dressed, made-up and even wearing eyeglasses exactly like those of the (at the time) hot (in the media sense) Ms. Palin.

    She packaged herself perfectly.

    She's GOT A SHOW ON MSNBC! Think about it. She knows little about anything, is as vacuous as anyone I've ever heard...more reliant on talking points than Elisabeth Hasselbeck, and while I can forgive Hasselbeck because she's on a toss-off entertainment fluff show, Cupp is making a living as a political pundit!

    Seriously, watching that show, for Krystal Ball and Kornachi only, I am astounded at how many times the response from the expert guest to Cupp begins with, "Well, first of all, your facts (and/or premise) are simply wrong..."

    And let me add one last shot: the day before the election, when they gave their predictions, Cupp said Romney would win, and fairly handily. That same week on Maher, she proudly asserted that she, a "smart" conservative, had predicted an Obama win, because it was obvious. See how this works?

    Schtick. Cupp and Chambers, schtick. Like the super-preachers and their mega-churches. If what they are after is fame and money, you have to call them brilliant.

  •  I got sucked into that Brad DeLong post ... (6+ / 0-)

    And read every single one of those absurd Romney-will-win entiries.  It made me angry ... because every damn one of those vicious fools will STILL be spouting off on TV for the next 4,8, 16 years, and be treated seriously by the Beltway media.

    It's infuriating, really.

  •  Flash: Jennifer Rubin is still wasting Ink! (0+ / 0-)

    Who cares?

    Dick Cheney said, "Pi$$ on 'em!" And, Ronald Reagan replied, "That's a Great Idea. Let's Call it 'Trickle Down Economics!"

    by NM Ray on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 06:55:35 AM PST

  •  Those four black states (0+ / 0-)

    One thing those four black states that Chambers imagines saw massive election fraud for Obama have in common is that they are all run by Republicans.

    Election fraud of any magnitude, and certainly the 4-5 point shifts that would be required for some of the four, almost has to be an inside job, something done by the election officials themselves.  So, sure, Republican election officials succeeded on one of the most massive electoral frauds in US history -- to re-elect Obama!

    These four states were chosen for exactly the same reason Chambers decided that the polls needed to be unskewed by x amount in the R direction.  You had to assume that x factor, and you have to assume that fraud flipped these four states, because that's what you need for the Rs to win.

    There is this further point to maintaining that these states "really" voted R -- it ain't over until it's over!  We still have a few weeks until the states have to mail in their EC vote totals.  The R legislatures and governors in those four states still have time to decide that, yes indeed, there was fraud, that Romney really did win in their states, and mail in EC vote tallies for Romney.  

    Sure, maybe the courts would stop them.  But we now have an even more extreme conservative movement 5-man junta on the big Court than we did in 2000, so I wouldn't count on that.

    Public opinion would have to stop them.  That's where Chambers hopes to come in.  If his ilk can persuade even just the 23% dead-enders that fraud carried those four states, that position becomes "opinions differ on shape of the earth" respectable to the media.  Our best bet is that this stuff is too loony even for the 23%.  Oh, wait, the same 23%+ who think Obama was born in Kenya...

    If the four states were to do this, send in their EC tallies as Romney votes, the last backstop would be Congress.  Congress would have to vote that the four tallies were  bogus, then substitute tallies with Obama votes.  But it takes a majority in each chamber to set aside a tally sent in with the governor's signature, so basically, we would be dependent on the probity and sense of fair play of the Republican House to see them through to doing the right thing.  Oh, wait...

    We should have destroyed the presidency before Obama took office. Too late now.

    by gtomkins on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 07:55:22 AM PST

  •  Embassy attacks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greg Dworkin, CA wildwoman

    So what I want to know is this: why is one consulate attack something to talk about with such freakish energy?

    Here's a list of attacks on American consular buildings during Bush II's term as president:

    2002,  Karachi, Pakistan
    2004,  Tashkent, Uzbekistan
    2004,  Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
    2006,  Damascus, Syria
    2007,  Athens, Greece
    2007,  Vienna, Austria
    2008,  Belgrade, Serbia
    2008,  Istanbul, Turkey
    2008,  San‘a’, Yemen
    Interesting how Democrats didn't politicize complex international decisions made by the State Department and others in Bush's administration....
  •  Re: DeLong on Nate Silver's 20% (0+ / 0-)

    Pareto efficiency?

  •  Swing State Voters (0+ / 0-)

    Already have Mitt at 47%. Since they are the ones who got subjected to all the ads and in the end decided the election I think that's very fitting...

    Progress 365 not just a slogan a goal - 300 progressive seats in the House and 65 progressive seats in the Senate.

    by jusjtim35 on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:33:39 AM PST

  •  Here's my favorite (0+ / 0-)
    If the liberals are right, then most of the Republican insiders I’ve talked to over the last two weeks are in the flat-earth camp. They don’t seem to be just pretending to have confidence in Romney’s ability to win the election, spinning the rubes to improve the party’s percentage in defeat; they seem to really have confidence: more confidence, in fact, than I remember roughly the same group of people having at this point in 2004.... Their projections range from a toss-up to a strong Romney win."
    For once Ramesh Ponnaru gets something right. They are flat earthers.

    Nothing human is alien to me.

    by WB Reeves on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 09:53:53 AM PST

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