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Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn takes the Oath of Office to become the 41st Governor of Illinois. (January 29, 2009)
Pat Quinn may only get to do this once
Democrat Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois has had some terrible ratings for a long time, but these latest numbers from PPP are just disastrously bad. Thanks in part to presiding over an income tax hike necessary to pay for state government services, Quinn's worked his way down to a 25-64 job approval score, and predictably, his numbers in hypothetical 2014 matchups with Republicans are just awful:

37-44 vs. state Sen. Kirk Dillard
39-43 vs. Treasurer Dan Rutherford
40-39 vs. Rep. Aaron Schock

Obviously, lots of Democrats are thinking about replacing Quinn, so Tom Jensen tested Attorney General Lisa Madigan (who has high name rec) and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley (who doesn't) as well. Madigan leads Dillard and Rutherford 46-37 and Schock 46-38, while Daley trails Dillard (34-36) and Rutherford (37-38) but edges Schock 40-35.

Madigan has long been mentioned as potential gubernatorial candidate and has a good 48-32 favorability rating overall and a 68-16 score among Democratic primary voters. In a direct head-to-head with Quinn, she trounces him 64-20. Even Daley comes out ahead, too, though, 37-34, which really should give Quinn second thoughts about seeking reelection. But Daley also probably wants to think twice about setting himself on a potential collision course with Madigan, who looks very strong.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Rutherford noses Schock 27-26 in a hypothetical three-way primary, with Dillard at 17. He also takes the top spot in PPP's kitchen-sink scenario:

Dan Rutherford: 19
Aaron Schock: 18
Bill Brady: 14
Kirk Dillard: 12
Joe Walsh: 8
Bruce Rauner: 7
Someone else: 7
Not sure: 15

As for the additional names there: Bill Brady was the GOP's 2010 nominee, who barely beat Dillard for the nod and then barely lost to Quinn; Joe Walsh is the infamous loudmouth and soon-to-be-former congressman; and Bruce Rauner is a wealthy private equity titan. As always, these "let's toss everybody into the hopper" polls don't reflect any kind of prediction as to what the primary field will look like, but they do offer a way to judge the initial standing of potential players.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 03:35 PM PST.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Spare me the Daley (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lexalou, bear83

    I had enough of Daleys starting back in, what was it, 1957? when I was in grade school. Enough with the Daleys!

    Jon Husted is a dick.

    by anastasia p on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 03:38:33 PM PST

    •  Plus the down-staters won't vote for him. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sister Havana

      Dead on arrival.

      Don't "boo". Vote! President Obama, to the voters at his rallies

      by lexalou on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:03:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Daley would do better than Quinn downstate. (3+ / 0-)

        Sure, the Daley name is associated with Chicago machine politics, but that can be partly overcome with some effort. Quinn is HATED downstate. If he can't make peace with AFSCME and save public employee pensions then he will lose downstate in a landslide. But, even that won't make up for the closure of many state facilities in small towns that depended on them.

        Quinn needs to either get the legislature to raise taxes to pay for the pension obligation, or find around 200,000 votes in the Chicago region that he didn't get last time. It's hard to see either of those things happening.

      •  Not true. I'm from downstate and there is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, Willinois

        actually a grudging respect for him down here. The truth is that downstate and Chicago under Daley found very many common interests, especially when it came to increased state funding of education to ease the burden on property taxes (this is very popular in rural communities) and increased spending on infrastructure (downstater George Ryan was very big on this.)

        There a split between downstate republicans and what they call "Dupage County Republicans" on many issues on which they found common ground with Daley.

    •  How long has Madigan run things? (0+ / 0-)

      Not Lisa but her dad. He was elected to the legislature in 1971 and has been the Speaker (though he often seems to act as if he is the Prime Minister) for 28 of the last 30 years. Will he retire if she is elected governor?

      The GOP is the party of mammon. They mock what Jesus taught.

      by freelunch on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:20:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you don't like dynasties, (0+ / 0-)

      Madigan has to be out, too. She's probably OK as AG, but enough with the hereditary politics already. Besides, her old man's reputation for weaseling will be used to good effect against her.

      Everybody hates Quinn because he inherited decades of corruption and governmental idiocy, but I can see him coming back despite his unlovable personality, assuming the economy continues to pick up and he can sell himself as the only credible liberal without ties to skeezy characters.

    •  Quinn Has Zero Chance to Win in 2014 (0+ / 0-)

      I live in Illinois. Quinn would be a disaster on the ticket in 2014. Unfortunately, he says wants to run. It is the task for Illinois Democrats to primary him out with Lisa Madigan. She would win the governorship. Quinn would lose it.

  •  Love Lisa Madigan... (7+ / 0-)

    However, I believe too many people will associate her with her father and therefore won't vote for her.  If only Michael Madigan would step down, life would be a lot easier here in Illinois.

    And I say this as a staunch liberal.

    What it is, is up to us. ~ Howard Rheingold

    by madame defarge on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 03:55:28 PM PST

  •  Quinn is strong with Illinois Dems and is a good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    campaigner. Madigan is a creature of her father who is very unpopular. I think she'd lose versus Rutherford.

  •  Madigan looks strong, but a few things come to (6+ / 0-)


    1. She didn't exactly shine in the whole Blagojevich fiasco.  

    Don't know if that'll bite her or not.

    2.  The Democratic brand is extremely powerful in Illinois, but the state's troubles are also tied pretty strongly to those very same Democrats.  As a state, we are in very deep doo-doo.  Worse for Democrats, part of extricating ourselves from that deep doo-doo is going to make state employee unions very very unhappy.  Failure to make those state employees unhappy will make lots of other people unhappy.  Not a wonderful place to be.

    3.  It'll be a midterm election, and Republicans tend to do a little bit better in those. Don't forget that Quinn beat Brady by only 30,000 votes, benefiting from votes for Scott Lee Cohen that might've gone to Brady.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:01:13 PM PST

    •  Excellent Analysis! - from a fellow Illinoisian nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      There is no hell on earth appropriate enough for those who would promote the killing of another person, in the name of a god.

      by HarryParatestis on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:11:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As one of those state employees (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DaveW, Willinois, Sister Havana, sngmama

      I'll say that they better find a way to fix the mess they created without gutting pensions. I don't know what the answer is, but it can't be screwing over the hard-working, (usually) underpaid state employees.

      Maybe we need to sell naming rights to state buildings. The Nike State Capitol. The Toyota Department of Motor Vehicles.

      "This country will not be a permanently good place for any of us to live in unless we make it a reasonably good place for all of us to live in." -- Theodore Roosevelt

      by TheImpishOne on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:28:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's a rock and hard place, isn't it? (0+ / 0-)

        State employee unions are very powerful in Illinois.

        The State Senator above our office is a very labor-friendly guy, but he's had to endure some very unfriendly treatment from people who have supported him.

        I know he doesn't like it -- not the treatment so much, as he can understand that, but the situation.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:44:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Given #2. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      A candidate not directly involved in state government right now would be a smart choice. There are plenty of potential names not included in this poll.

    •  Running a Female for Illinois Governor Will Help (0+ / 0-)

      it will get more of the female vote to turn out in an off year election. Anyone have any guess whether the female vote helped Obama Nov. 6?

  •  Aaron Schock? Really? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
  •  IL Senate President Mike Madigan is the one (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    constant in the fall of Illinois into $85Billion in debt. He presided over that and is responsible for every malfeasance along the way. That is his record, his achievement, his legacy. You cannot pin that on our two prior governors now serving time in federal prison (they are not cellmates, by the way).

    Madigan's daughter, Lisa, our Attorney General, would be very wise to seek out all the other crimes and misdemeanors that have tarnished her father's record in his official destruction of Illinois' credit and ability to function with this enormous glut of our state government sucking our wealth from our state.

    She needs to distinguish herself not as a nepotist darling, but as a courageous crime fighter.

    I predict Quinn will win reelection because he was dealt a nothing hand and has selflessly presented remedy, in spite of the insatiable spenders statewide who care first and foremost about themselves. No one could have done better than Quinn, and no one sees the solutions more clearly. Lisa Madigan has unfinished work as AG, she has no business as governor. And Mike Madigan needs to find a way to restore all the money he has happily wasted for his own benefit and phony power base.

    skipping over damaged area

    by Says Who on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:07:34 PM PST

    •  Yes, but if you look close enough, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Says Who

      the Republicans went along.  There was a bill passed that created most of the state retirement issues, which is most of the fiscal disaster in Illinois.  It was called SB 76, passed in 2007.  Almost all of the Dems, and Repubs in the State Assembly, and Senate voted for it.  Yes, the turnip blood is on Madigan's hands, but the Repubs were right there to catch the splatter.

      There is no hell on earth appropriate enough for those who would promote the killing of another person, in the name of a god.

      by HarryParatestis on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:16:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm with you. Reform must come on both sides. (0+ / 0-)

        Hey, we ARE bankrupt, let's declare it and bail out of the top-heavy commitments we made in error.

        Madigan reminds me of Romney in his smugness and slight of hand. This state is a toy he plays with. His power is based on fear of retribution. I'd like the courts and the historians to define what good Mike Madigan has done in his position, presiding over our steady demise. We are second-rate in many areas, though we pay excessive taxes. Its always getting worse.

        Quinn is not charming, he just cares about restoring our state to viability. He earned those votes and hasn't failed. I support his efforts, he has given his life to true service, especially on behalf of consumers and veterans. And he's honest, enough to say these repairs will take decades to achieve. I hope we keep a man who works for the common good no matter his approval ratings.

        skipping over damaged area

        by Says Who on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 05:05:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  You're optimistic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Quinn needs to work something out with AFSCME or he'll have a large number of Democrats and swing voters and their families working against him. Some of the same people who got him elected last time.

      That still won't resolve his problems in other downstate communities where state facility closures are felt much more painfully than they are in the Chicago region.

      So here's the question. Can Quinn add at least 200,000 votes from the Chicago region over what he got last time? He'll need it to make up for his landslide loss downstate if he doesn't make peace with AFSCME and save some downstate facilities he's closing.

      •  Thanks. I'll pay attention. (0+ / 0-)

        No, he won't gain 200,000 in Chicago; he needs to stem the losses elsewhere. What better answers are there for the  facilities/prisons? Quinn's interests are purely Illinois' interests.

        Yes, I'm optimistic. I also have no stake in the outcome, it is just that I recognize and appreciate Quinn's attitude and ethics, and I see improvement. He humbly succeeds without praise or encouragement. Unlike any other governor out there.

        I see no alternative as capable, altruistic, and realistic as is Gov. Quinn.

        skipping over damaged area

        by Says Who on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 05:19:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Schadenfreud is Lisa Madigan (0+ / 0-)

    running the state her father had a large in hand in  bankrupting.  I love the low bar here - name recognition; annual list of unsafe toys to avoid; name recognition; and very loud whispers that she ain't her father's daughter.

  •  It's really a shame (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chitown Kev, Satya1

    because Quinn is an outsider with good intentions. Taxes needed to be raised and it's still not enough.

    That being said, his political instincts leave much to be desired, imho. He really hasn't been able to craft a strong narrative for how he has led Illinois the past 4 years. Probably because the real boss in Illinois is Lisa Madigan's dad, the speaker of the house.

    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Satya1, Potus2020

      Quinn is much better and doing the outsider agitator thing

    •  He'd have been better off, IMO, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      if he'd gone for deeper tax reform, including the way the state raises money. IL income tax is still too low even after being raised 50%, and corporate taxes are in many cases practically nonexistent. Gas taxes haven't kept up with prices at all, but raising them would cause a tremendous howl.

      Quinn has done about as well as anybody could, given the national economy and IL's decades-long history of corruption and public-private partnerships that soak the taxpayer in favor of the corporate and the political. The state, and the guv, are caught between the need to "create jobs" by pandering to employers with low or no taxes and the need to raise revenues. Without federal action on the race to the bottom by corporate blackmail, this is a problem nobody's going to solve.

  •  No surprise about Quinn's numbers. (5+ / 0-)

    State government, public universities, and schools are the top employers outside the Chicago region. When Quinn decided to attack public employee pensions and ended the union contract he guaranteed that he'll do even worse downstate than last time. The state employees union did a lot to get him elected. They're feeling betrayed and angry. Public workers, their families, and friends represent a large swing vote.

    I don't think people in Chicago are fully aware of the boiling cauldron of hatred for Quinn that exists in the rest of the state right now. They'll find out if he runs again. You can lose downstate Illinois and still win statewide, but you have to at least make a fair statewide showing.

    Things started going downhill for Blagojevich when he turned on state employees. At least Blago cultivated the Southern Illinois vote. Quinn hasn't. I don't see how Quinn wins with a large portion of the Democratic vote against him.

  •  His only chance is a Teabagger opponent. (0+ / 0-)

    He's a nice guy, so I'm hoping.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 04:30:21 PM PST

  •  Madigan already IS GOVERNOR (0+ / 0-)

    Mike Madigan already runs the state. Now we'll have his daughter in the Governor's seat? Ridiculous. As a Democrat, that's shameful to our party. Madigan has ruined this state and he's going to make it even worse if his daughter is "appointed" the seat.

  •  I'm not surprised at Quinn's numbers (3+ / 0-)

    He's never been very popular (he was an accidental Governor, after all and only won in 2010 because of a third party candidate and because Bill Brady was a nutty teabagger) and it's widely percieved (accurately in my view) that Mike Madigan really rules the state.

    Doesn't really matter. All Lisa Madigan has to say is "I want to be Governor" and she will have it. Daddy and the state Democratic machine will ensure it. None of the potential GOP opponents have a prayer against her. Dillard is probably the strongest one, but he'll never make it out of the primary.

    But the others? Schock? He's a pretty boy neophyte. Brady? Couldn't beat Quinn in 2010, wouldn't have a prayer against Lisa. Rutherford? Boring. Walsh? Excuse me, I can't stop laughing.

    Nah, speaking as an Illinois native, if Lisa Madigan wants the Governorship, so shall it be.

  •  No no no. (0+ / 0-)

    Don't you get it?  What's important is continuing to LOL at Republicans for the next six months.  Clearly that's the direction the founder of this website wants us to go, so you can just STFU about all this meaningless 2014 stuff right now.  

    More diaries about how right Markos was.  That's all we really need out of the front page.

    •  I'm fine with Markos's exhuberant gloating (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      he earned it. When everyone was all falling apart & pissed at Obama, Markos held it all together. I daresay his rallying the troops for the election grind was pure craftsmanship.

    •  If kos's gloating is a diversion, hijacking this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      diary to complain about it is doubly so.  Here you are, with exactly the type of diary that you say you want, and you've got zippo shit nada bupkis to say about the substance, preferring meta whining.  

      Anyone who really wanted to talk 2014 would do so when given a real chance.  

      One piece of free advice to the GOP: Drop the culture wars, explicitly.

      by Inland on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 08:11:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  any state run by a repubic governor (0+ / 0-)

    becomes a basket case. I don't care which democrat. Any democrat is a better result than any repubic. Let's find the best dem and support her/him. The people have suffered enough under the regressives  imbecility. Whenever i watch a regressive speak, the look on its face give me  the impression that it is smelling the shit that sits atop its top lip.

    john "boy" mccain and senator ms. lindsey "the ticklish" graham are just plain stupid.

    by longtimelurker on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:07:51 PM PST

  •  Quinn did what's right for Illinois. (0+ / 0-)

    And now the flatlanders are gonna punish him for it. He's the best governor they've had in a long, long time. Regardless of party, the past two years are the first in my memory that Illinois had a better governor than Wisconsin. Although more of that is how very low Wisconsin has sunk.

    1,000,000 Strong! TOTAL RECALL!

    by pHunbalanced on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:14:44 PM PST

  •  John Cullerton would be a solid candidate IMO (0+ / 0-)

    good guy, serious and well respected on both sides.

    Plus, he's one the three guys that actually run IL (Madigan Rahm and Cullerton) already.

    Come a Willing Servant, Go an Able Culprit.

    by Bin Bin on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:59:19 PM PST

  •  Note to Gov Quinn (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Don't wait until January 2014 to declare that you're not going to run for re-election. It leaves Democrats no time to campaign and won't turn out well.

    Bev Perdue
    Raleigh (for another month)

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 07:30:40 PM PST

  •  Could our First Lady win? (0+ / 0-)

    I wonder if Michelle Obama has any political ambitions.  Seems to be pretty popular and certainly could set up the political machinery fairly quickly.

    Better brace yourselves for a whole lotta ugly comin' at you from a never-ending parade of stupid - "Hairspray"

    by polaris2 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 07:47:36 PM PST

    •  first lady and governor at the same time? (0+ / 0-)

      hell no.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 11:12:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lisa Madigan (AG) would be a good choice ... (0+ / 0-)

    ... if she'll run. She has turned down out-of-state jobs for her young family. Where else besides Governor could she go politically? (Besides, her Papa Mike is, ahem, important in state politics.)

    As for Bill Daley, he's not known downstate. Heck, he's not that well known in the Chicago area, despite his business connections. He has name recognition (!), but he's neither his father nor his older brother, especially when it comes to street-sense politics. He's an executive and an advocate (former lobbyist) but that's not enough next to Ms. Madigan.

    Let's have no faith in the high-ranking Illinois Democrats who run the slate, who have done a lousy job recently of picking candidates (i.e. Obama's Senate seat lost, Lt. Governor nominee abandoned his campaign and the Party solicited resumes on the internet, etc.).

    That said, I wouldn't rule out Pat Quinn despite what the polls may say. He's had to do some bruising but mostly responsible things. He has a good list of accomplishments to run on, whereas now the public - known for its exceptionally short attention span - just thinks of the most recent, largely ineffectual meanderings.

    2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House.

    by TRPChicago on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 08:27:49 PM PST

    •  uh, how about a certain senate seat (0+ / 0-)

      in 2016?

      She turned down running for the Senate in 2010; I'm convinced that she was probably the only Dem that could have beaten Kirk.

      •  She turned it down in 2010 because she ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... had a young family and did not want to make the move to DC. Move or not, the commute is a killer. The Senate requires 4-plus days of attendance and 3-plus days "back home" every week for much of the year. Such commuting is lousy, especially for a mother with young children.

        My question - where else would she go politically? - assumed she would make the same DC relocation decision for 2016 than she made for 2010. But if not ...

        ... Should she not run for governor in 2014 and wait to challenge Kirk in 2016? (Voters probably wouldn't happily accept that fast a turnaround.)

        ... Who do you want, if not Quinn, in 2014? As I wrote, the Party's slating has been woeful in the recent past. Have we no credible Democrat with solid Illinois-based credentials and some statewide exposure who could get "the Obama seat" back?

        2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House.

        by TRPChicago on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 10:59:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, the Obama seat could just as well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          be called the Carol Mosely Braun seat.

          Well, I do know that one certain First Lady already turned down the almost certain opportunity to win that seat (although she won another Senate seat when it opened four years earlier).

          Michelle Obama would be ideal to win that senate seat in 2016 but I've never really had the impression that she clamors all that much for politics.

          Simply for the sake of symbolism, Kwame Raoul wouldn't be a bad choice for that Senate seat either.

          I'm not certain how young Madigan's kids are at this point, but I can see Madigan going either way...she can pretty much try (and probably do) anything that she wants in Illinois politics.

          Of course, it's just possible that she's happy where she is.

          •  Senator Braun is a very nice person, but I ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... wouldn't call it her seat.

            I doubt Michelle Obama would want it, but if she did, Whow!, what a candidate! The ideal candidate might well be a left-of-center - but-not-too-far-left - woman from the collar counties, running as a moderate (as Mark Kirk did, and then reverted upon election).

            Kwame Raoul would be fine, but I'm thinking he needs downstate visibility. (Which he can gather; there's plenty of time.) He's identified with Chicago and would be running against someone who isn't, a problem Barack Obama suddenly did not have, when the GOP recruited a carpetbagger.

            2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House.

            by TRPChicago on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:58:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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